Teaching the History of the Space Race: A Soviet AAR

[CV60]

Q2 1964

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ 57,038.6 $10,494.4 $15,755.6

Actions

NSTR

Events

At the end of Q2, the UR-700 booster is at 73% reliability, the LK-700 is at 59%, the Krechet-94 spacesuit is at 55%, and the Mars-69 probe is at 61% reliability.

Analysis

At the current rate of development, the UR-700 will be safely flyable in approximately 18 month/6 quarters. The LK-700 will be flyable in approximately 6-7 quarters, the Krechet-94 spacesuit will be safely flyable in 6 quarters and the Mars-69 probe will in approximately 5-6 quarters. Based on this, the tentative flight schedule is to fly the Mars-69 probe first, with a Q3 1965 lauch date. A 9 month long mission, it will be completed in Q1 1966, leaving Q2-4 1967 for developmental flights of the LK/UR-700 system. If successful, these missions should generate sufficient prestige/political support to allow me to maximize the Soviet space program budget for the 1967-69 lunar landing program.

[CV60]

Q3 1964

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ 67,462.5 $10,494.4 $15,755.6

Actions

Q3 Fly Zenit mission for the military

Events

At the end of Q3, the UR-700 booster is at 75% reliability, the LK-700 is at 63%, the Krechet-94 spacesuit is at 60%, and the Mars-69 probe is at 66% reliability.
NASA opens the lunar orbiter and Apollo program.

Analysis

The mandatory Zenit spy satellite mission is successful. The next mandatory annual Zenit mission will be flown in Q2 1965 to free up the remainder of the year for the Mars-69 flight.

The opening of the Apollo program before any Gemini flights indicates that NASA is operating a large and expensive program. However, I believe, based on their lack of flights, that the Soviet program remains ahead of the NASA program.

[CV60]

Q4 1964

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ $81,918.1 $10,494.4 $15,755.6

Actions

NSTR

Events

At the end of Q4, the UR-700 booster is at 77% reliability, the LK-700 is at 66%, the Krechet-94 spacesuit is at 65%, and the Mars-69 probe is at 72% reliability.

NASA successfully flies the Ranger Lunar impactor mission.



Analysis

The current development rates for the Mars-69 probe means that it is on track for a Q3 1965 launch, after the Q2 Zenit launch.

Image-Mars 69 probe

[rommel222]

Greetings to All,
The AAR reads like a historical documentary and will be a reference for students in my History of Space Exploration course. I will encourage fellow physics faculty to follow as well.
Is this also posted or linked to the Slitherine BASPM forums?

[CV60]

I have a link to the Matrix AAR over at the Slitherine webpage ( http://www.slitherine.com/forum/viewtop ... 26&t=67834 ) But I didn't duplicate the thread.

[CV60]

Q1-2 1965

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$97,473.7 $10,494.4 $15,755.6 Q1
$108,567.5 $10,494.4 $15,755.6 Q2

Actions

Q2 Fly successful Zenit spysatellite mission
Q2 NASA flies an extended duration I flight


Events

At the end of Q2, the UR-700 booster is at 81% reliability, the LK-700 is at 72%, the Krechet-94 spacesuit is at 73%, and the Mars-69 probe is at 78% reliability.

Analysis

The current development rates for the Mars-69 probe means that it is on track for a Q3 1965 launch, after the Q2 Zenit launch.
NASA flies an extended duration I flight. I assume this is a Mercury flight, in which case I expect NASA to close down the Mercury program.

[CV60]

Q3 1965

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ 120,817.8 $10,494.4 $15,755.6 Q3

Actions

Q3 Successful launch of Mars 69 probe

Events

At the end of Q3, the UR-700 booster is at 82% reliability, the LK-700 is at 74%, the Krechet-94 spacesuit is at 76%, and the Mars-69 probe is at 81% reliability.
NASA opens the lunar Surveyor program

Analysis

The overall reliability of the Proton K/Mars-69 system is 82% in Q3. While the launch is successful, the overall probe reliability is lower than I would like, especially given that the mission lasts for three quarters.

Image Mars-69 TPI

[CV60]

Q4 1965

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$138,083.1 $10,494.4 $18,865.3 Q4

Actions

Q4 Successful Mars orbital insertion of Mars 69 probe

Events

Mars-69 achieves Martian orbit

Analysis

In terms of the budget, the Soviet program is doing well. The savings from lower rate of flight should leave enough for an aggressive LK-700 test and lunar flight program in the 1966-68 timeframe.

Image-Mars-69 in orbit

[CV60]

Q1 1966

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ 156,248.3 $10,494.4 $18,865.3

Actions

Q1 Successful Mars 69 mission completion

Events

Mars-69 successfully maps the Martian surface and completes its mission
At the end of Q1, the UR-700 booster is at 85% reliability, the LK-700 is at 79%, the Krechet-94 spacesuit is at 79%.
NASA successfully launches an uncrewed suborbital Gemini flight test.

Analysis

With the successful conclusion of the Mars-69 mission, I will have the USSR open up Luna 17 to get additional detail of the lunar surface before conducting the LK landing. At this point, there is no indication that NASA has tested a lunar capable booster or capsule. As the UR/LK-700 are both at 805 reliability, it is probable that the Soviet program is far ahead of NASA.

[CV60]

Q2 1966

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ $156,248.3 $10,494.4 $18,865.3 Q2

Actions

Q2 Launch mandatory Zenit spy satellite
Q2 Upgrade HQ to level 2
Q2 Open Luna 17 program
Q2 Close Mars-69 program

Events

At the end of Q2, the UR-700 booster is at 86% reliability, the LK-700 is at 80%, the Krechet-94 spacesuit is at 81%.

Analysis

I upgrade the HQ to allow me to open one more program. With my positive budget situation, and the UR/LK-700 program at 80% reliability, I can consider running two simultaneous space probe programs. However, to do so will require upgrading the headquarters, as that will put me over the 3 program limit for a level 1 headquarters.

[CV60]

Q3 1966

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ $169,093.4 $10,653.6 $18,706.1

Actions

Q2 Unmanned suborbital launch of LK/UR-700.

Events

At the end of Q3, the UR-700 booster is at 87% reliability, the LK-700 is at 82%, the Krechet-94 spacesuit is at 82%. The Luna 17 probe is at 81%, and the rover is at 42%. The UR/LK-700 overall system reliability is 84%

LK-700 failed during the reentry phase.

Analysis

My test plan will be to do two unmanned flights: a suborbital and orbital. This way I can fly and improve the system without risking cosmonauts. My budget situation and lead over NASA gives me the luxury of taking my time at this point. That also gives me the opportunity to provide additional training to some controllers. Right now, the UR/LK-700 is only 9 months behind the flight schedule drafted in Q1 1955, so it is tracking pretty well, especially given the the effect of the mandatory Zenit spy satellites have had on the flight schedule.

Unfortunately, the LK-700 failed during the reentry preparation step, costing a whopping -12% in reliability to the LK. It may take a year for the program to get back on track after that failure. Worse, it will likely seriously cut into my lead over the NASA program.

[CV60]

Q4 1966 and Q1 1967

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ 186,549.5 $10,903.6 $18,456.1 Q4
$210,154.2 $11,342.6 $32,407.4 Q1

Actions

Q4 Open Venera 7

Events

Q4 NASA performs an uncrewed orbital flight test of the Gemini system
Q1 NAS Opens Mariner 5 Mars fly-by program
Q1 Mandatory Zenit spy satellite is launched
At the end of Q1, the UR-700 booster is at 92% reliability, the LK-700 is at 75%, the Krechet-94 spacesuit is at 85%. The Luna 17 probe is at 87%, and the rover is at 61% and Venera 7 is at 72%


Analysis
The failure of the LK-700 has put a serious crimp in the Soviet program. Only if cosmonauts had been lost would it have been worse. Venera 7 is opened to provide additional mission and prestige in case the LK-700 delay becomes worse.
Although the USSR manages to maximize its budget in the budget cycle, there is nothing to spend it on until the LK-700 reliability is improved

[CV60]

Q2-3 1967

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ $241,131.6 $11,372.6 $32,377.4 Q2
$272,762.5 $11,341.9 $32,408.1 Q3

Actions

NSTR

Events

At the end of Q3, the UR-700 booster is at 92% reliability, the LK-700 is at 79%, the Krechet-94 spacesuit is at 87%. The Luna 17 probe is at 90%, and the rover is at 73% and Venera 7 is at 76%

Q3 NASA opens the Pioneer solar program.

Analysis

The lapse in the flying has resulted in an employee leaving. Unfortunately, it was one of the better controllers. Fortunately, I have a bit of a cushion in terms of trained controller personnel. However, I will have to increase the salary of the department, to avoid any further losses.

[CV60]

Q4 1967


Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ $304,770.6 $11,396.9 $32,353.1 Q4

Actions

NSTR

Events

At the end of Q3, the UR-700 booster is at 93% reliability, the LK-700 is at 80%, the Krechet-94 spacesuit is at 88%. The Luna 17 probe is at 91%, and the rover is at 77% and Venera 7 is at 78%
NASA flies the Gemini orbital flight.

Analysis

Based on the reliability ratings, I will plan on flying another suborbital LK-700 mission in 2Q 1968. The Luna 17 probe will be flown in Q1 1968.
The good news is that NASA has only flown the Gemini orbital flight. I estimate that they will need at least one more year to get Apollo in a flight status, and a year past that for lunar flights.

Image-Luna 17 Rover

[CV60]

Q1 1968

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ $329,417.8 $11,396.9 $32,353.1

Actions

Launch Luna 17

Events

At the end of Q3, the UR-700 booster is at 93% reliability, the LK-700 is at 82%, the Krechet-94 spacesuit is at 89%. The Luna 17 probe is at 92%, and the rover is at 79% and Venera 7 is at 80%.
Successful Luna 17 mission
NASA successfully flies the Pioneer 2 lunar orbiter
NASA opens Pioneer Venus Orbiter and Project Apollo

Analysis

NASA previously opened Project Apollo, so I assume this is the Apollo lunar program instead of just the earth orbit test program. I still estimate that the Soviet program is 1-2 years ahead of the NASA lunar program.

Luna 17 images of Moon (http://mentallandscape.com/C_Luna17_Horz22.jpg)

[CV60]

Q2 1968

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ $342,163.4 $13,455.4 $30,294.6

Actions

Close Luna 17 program
Open Luna 15 program
Launch LK-700 unmanned suborbital mission

Events

At the end of Q3, the UR-700 booster is at 93% reliability, the LK-700 is at 84%, the Krechet-94 spacesuit is at 89%. Venera 7 is at 81%. Luna 15 is at 78% reliability. The overall UR/LK-700 reliability is 88%.
NASA performs the Gemini spacewalk
LK-700 unmanned suborbital mission is successful

Analysis

Despite having a 84% reliability, the LK-700 suffered two problems during the test flight. Fortunately, both were successfully managed.

[CV60]

Q3 1968

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ $342,163.4 $13,455.4 $30,294.6

Actions

Launch LK-700 unmanned orbital mission

Events

At the end of Q3, the UR-700 booster is at 96% reliability, the LK-700 is at 90%, the Krechet-94 spacesuit is at 90%. Venera 7 is at 83%. Luna 15 is at 80% reliability. The overall UR/LK-700 reliability is 88%.
LK-700 unmanned orbital mission is successful
NASA completes an unmanned suborbital Apollo test flight
NASA completes a Mariner 5 Venus flyby

Analysis

With NASA’s suborbital Apollo flight, it appears that the US program is closer to the Soviet than I anticipated. However, to the best of my knowledge, NASA has not yet done a rendezvous and docking, both of which should be vital for the Apollo lunar landing program. Therefore, I still believe the Soviet Union is about one year ahead of the US. However, I will have to push, to the limits of safety, the UR/LK-700 timeline. NASA also beat the Soviets to Venus, conducting a flyby this quarter.

[CV60]

Q4 1968

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ $373,446.2 $14,192.9 $28,557.1

Actions

Launch LK-700 unmanned orbital mission
Mars 2 Orbiter opened
Luna 15 mission flown

Events

At the end of Q3, the UR-700 booster is at 97% reliability, the LK-700 is at 90%, the Krechet-94 spacesuit is at 90%. Venera 7 is at 84%. Luna 15 is at 83% reliability and Mars 2 is at 76%.
The Luna 15 successfully returns a lunar soil sample

Analysis

I have a one Quarter pause in the LK-700 flight schedule to finish training a flight crew and conduct some training on the controllers. I launch the Luna 15 lunar sample mission to fill the gap in the schedule. This flight will also help support the LK-700 lunar landing program. While I would like to get the Venura 7 craft launched, the 2 quarter mission will not fit into the ambitious flight schedule I am planning for the LK-700 beginning next quarter.

Luna 20 Image

[CV60]

Q1 1969

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ 381,888.3 $14,161.2 $29,588.8

Actions

Launch manned LK-700 orbital flight

Events

At the end of Q1, the UR-700 booster is at 97% reliability, the LK-700 is at 93%, the Krechet-94 spacesuit is at 90%. Venera 7 is at 85%. Venera 9 is at 78% reliability and Mars 2 is at 79%. The overall UR/LK-700 system reliability is 95%

Analysis

The manned LK-700 flight is successful. The Soviet lunar program is back on track, albeit a year later than hoped [:(]

[CV60]

Q2 1969

Expenditures/Budget(Current Funds/Expenditures/Quarterly Balance)

$ $395,386.6 $14,161.2 $29,588.8

Actions

Launch manned LK-700 Level I duration with EVA

Events

At the end of Q2, the UR-700 booster is at 97% reliability, the LK-700 is at 96%, the Krechet-94 spacesuit is at 91%. Venera 7 is at 86%. Venera 9 is at 80% reliability and Mars 2 is at 81%. The overall UR/LK-700 system reliability is 95%
NASA opens the Venus multiprobe
NASA completes a duration II flight
NASA completes an EVA
NASA completes a suborbital Apollo flight

Analysis

The manned LK-700 flight is successful. The EVA is intended as a test of the Krechet-94, to maximize its reliability before embarking on a lunar mission.
The NASA suborbital Apollo and Duration II with EVA flights indicates that the US is trying to regain lost ground. Once they perform the rendezvous mission, NASA will be able to begin testing the LEM. While the Soviet space program is ahead, an aggressive NASA could conceivably launch a risky lunar mission in one year, assuming the LEM is ready by then. HOwever, it is more likely that NASA is 18-21 months from a lunar landing mission.