rkr1958 vs Composer99 - Allied Thread

[composer99]

January/February 1940

Axis Impulse #17

All caught up! More updates hopefully this evening, and then hopefully I'll be able to stay current.

Impulses: Germany & Japan land, Italy combined

End of Turn: Hasn't been rolled yet.

I've included the situation in the central Med (Italian Coast & Malta) in the screen captures, since I don't think I've shown them visually in quite some time.

Battle of the Atlantic
Italy initiates combat in the North Atlantic. The Axis subs combine in a "wolfpack" while searching for merchant ships.

Unfortunately, they are caught out on the surface by patrolling cruiser HMS Norfolk. (Search rolls Axis 6, CW 3; CW finds with 6 surprise; surface combat CW takes no damage and Axis takes 1D 3A.) In the ensuing engagement, the German U-boats take moderate losses and/or damage (German SUB damaged), before returning to Kiel, and the Italian subs are forced to flee, returning to port in Malta.

War in Europe
With the weather clear enough for combat operations, the Luftwaffe tries to bomb British positions around Rotterdam, to no great effect - despite the lack of RAF opposition. (German groundstrike with no CW CAP, groundstrikes miss.)

Otherwise, there's not a lot of action other than German redeployments in preparation for the better weather and a likely spring offensive into Belgium and France.

War in China
Japanese bombers launch strikes on KMT and CCCP formations known to contain command-and-control elements. (Both hexes with HQs struck.) Given the weather conditions, they mostly fail, but not entirely. (CCCP GARR disorganised.)

(This was pretty clever: either I would have to choose to leave an HQ disorganised if by good fortune both had been hit, or I would have to choose to use up all the Chinese oil to reorganise both of them.)

The IJA then continues to press forward, looking to envelop KMT and CCCP positions.

[composer99]

January/February 1940

End of Turn

So, the end of turn roll was a '3', ending the turn.

We're actually doing end-of-turn stuff as of this writing, so not much to report this post. But I did want to share the US entry markers.

First thing to note, Japan occupied Tungkwan during the turn and caused a marker draw (USE roll of 1). This pulled a '1' marker into the pool.

For US entry, I placed my free marker into the Japan pool and drew a '4', which is great! It helped me to pass one of the must-pass early options, Resources to China. (No tension generated, by the way.)

However, it does throw a bit of a wrench in any potential Soviet intervention. I can't say I'm keen risking such a nice marker. Such are the hard choices one must make. We'll see how China fares over the next turn or two, I suppose.

[composer99]

JF40 End of Turn

Here are the returns-to-base and units still at sea. I've got screen captures of Europe & the Med. (No changes in China on account of RTB relative to the last screen captures.)

Axis at Sea & RTB
Germany - North Sea: The Scharnhorst and Admiral Hipper sail to Danzig, while the Schlesien and Schleswig-Holstein stay at sea (drop to 0 box).

Ge & It - Med: The big fleet in the Italian Coast stays at sea (drop to 3 box); cruisers in the 4 box E Med stay at sea (drop to 3 box); cruisers in the 0 box Italian Coast & E Med return to Malta; an Italian ftr2 in 1 box E Med stays at sea (drop to 0 box); the rest of the planes in the E Med return to bases in Malta and Sicily (in the case of the German fighters).

Subs: Italian subs are the only ones at sea; they all return to Malta.

Japan: Japan only has an AMPH and a TRS in the 0 box China Sea; they return to Fukuoka.


Allied at Sea & RTB
US: Convoy point in China Sea returns to port in Manila.

France:
- French cruisers Duguay Trouin, Tourville, and Primaguet remain at sea, dropping to the E Med 1 box, Italian Coast 2 box, and W Med 3 box, respectively.
- French cruisers Foch and Algérie return to base from Cape Verde Basin and Gulf of Guinea, respectively, to harbour in Pointe Noire, Middle Congo.
- French cruiser Suffren returns from 0 box Cape St Vincent to Bingerville in Ivory Coast.
- French cruiser Lamont-Picquette returns from 0 box Cape St Vincent to Marseilles.

Commonwealth Convoy Defences
- Polish destroyer flotilla stays at sea, dropping to 2 box Faeroes Gap.
- HMS Southampton stays at sea, dropping to 3 box Bay of Biscay.
- HMS Edinburgh and Norfolk stay at sea, dropping to 0 and 3 boxes, respectively, of North Atlantic.
- HMS Sheffield and Glasgow stay at sea, dropping to 0 and 3 boxes, respectively, of Cape St Vincent.
- HMS Hawkins and Cumberland return from 0 and 1 box East Coast to Halifax.
- HMS Hermes, Valiant, Berwick, and Terror return from 0 box North Atlantic to Halifax.
- Dutch cruisers Java and Sumatra return to Liverpool from Bay of Biscay 0 box.
- HMS Resolution, Exeter, and Erebus return from 0 box Cape St Vincent to Liverpool.

Commonwealth Remote Transports
- Dutch TRS returns from 0 box E Indian Ocean to Adelaide (where the Sydney MIL is).
- The Queens return from 0 box Mozambique Channel to Mombasa, Kenya.

Commonwealth Med Forces
- HMS Eagle, Revenge, Malaya, Cornwall, Kent, Birmingham, and HMAS Australia return from 3 box E Med to Port Said.

(With the French providing risk-free presence, I don't have any reason to leave CW ships out at sea in the Med.)

Commonwealth North Sea
- HMS Effingham and York stay at sea, dropping to 0 box North Sea.
- HMS Ark Royal, Nelson, Rodney, Royal Sovereign, and Royal Oak, along with the CW TRS, return from 1 box North Sea to Plymouth.

This is a bit of a gamble - I'm leaving the forces in Rotterdam out of supply. But I really, really don't want to have the fleet and TRS sitting all in the 0 box. Also, this gives the Axis a strong incentive to make an effort to go first next turn, possibly including re-rolling the initiative roll if they fail - all in all, it's a way to try to shift the initiative die roll modifier my way for this summer and (most importantly) next summer.

[composer99]

JF40 End of Turn

Oil Use
Axis:
Ge - Spends 1 oil.
It - Spends 0.4 oil (so no oil), and leaves three cruisers in Malta disorganised. (Small win for me.)
Ja - Spends 0.4 oil (so no oil).

Allied:
CW - Spends 3 oil.
Fr - Spends 0.4 oil (so no oil).
USA - Spends 0.05 oil (so no oil).
Ch & USSR didn't have anything to reorg requiring oil.

Air Unit Lending:
China and the USSR aren't at a stage where they want to build air units, but the US and CW have lent then airplanes anyway.

Production
I've attached a screen capture from my production tracking spreadsheet as well as the reinforcement pools for the next 6 turns.

As you can see from the reinforcements, Germany has a whole lot of divisions coming on board all at once in May/June. This suggests three possibilities:
- An invasion of Norway, reinforced by the fact that Germany has 5 cp in the Baltic, when it normally needs no more than 4;
- An invasion of Greece;
- A "budget" invasion of the UK.

Both the Norwegian and UK invasion possibilities are made stronger by the UK's land unit commitments to Egypt & the Netherlands, and also the difficulties caused by the damaged transports over the past two turns. On the other hand, they're weakened by the heavy losses the KM surface fleet has sustained (two cruisers sunk and one damaged since the start of the war). What's more, Germany elected to upgrade Gneisenau, so she's in the construction pool (and Ronnie didn't spend the bps to fit her out).

It's no cause for complacency, however. If I empty the UK on the assumption Germany won't invade, that will only make them more likely to do so. I have Dover and Harwich covered, and a MECH in the central part of the country. It'd be good to get the Canadians to Plymouth, and maybe even the Sierra Leona TERR to the UK to cover other hexes, as well.

Taking Stock
A pretty good turn overall for the Allies, with no convoy losses or losses in China, and the German offensive in the West stalled by weather and Rotterdam.

The weather and initiative next turn are going to be crucial to determining the fate of the British defenders of Rotterdam. They'll also determine whether China can continue expanding their forces or have to make good on losses. (If I don't take any losses this turn, I intend on building a pilot to start getting my shiny new American planes on the map.)

I've already discussed the potentially changing situation vis-à-vis a USSR intervention in Manchuria, but it's good to reiterate it here: given the US entry against Japan, I'm contemplating foregoing an attack on Japan. I'll monitor over the next two turns.

[composer99]

March/April 1940

Sneak preview for the start of the turn: war in Europe continues to expand as Germany tries to swallow up yet another small neutral country!

Start of Turn

Axis Reinforcements
No pictures. Lots of naval stuff, not a lot of land or air. CW and France had better watch out.

Japan: D3A1 (Val) to Sasebo. Pretty sure that's a nav2? Manchurian TERR to Tsitsihar.

Italy: Vittorio Veneto, Zara (CA), and 1 SUB to La Spezia.

Germany: 2 SUB in Kiel, and PARA in Frankfurt.


Allied Reinforcements
I have pictures for this.

China & USSR: As shown in pictures. Not shown is the USSR 4th Army (3-3 INF) placed in Minsk.

United States: USS Wasp and LV Corps (4-1 GARR) arrive in San Diego, while 1 cp arrives in Norfolk.

France: Not shown in picture is 1 cp in Douala, Cameroon.

Commonwealth: Not shown in picture is the Burmese Auxiliaries (Rangoon MIL) forming up in Rangoon.


Lending
In addition to the default trade agreements:
- Germany lends Italy 2 resources.
- CW lends France 1 resource, 2 build points.
- CW lends China 1 oil while US lends China 1 resource.


Initiative

Axis roll 9 +1 = 10, Allies roll 10.

Axis wins ties because Allies won initiative last turn, so Axis wins, and goes first. I believe we all know the sound effect that goes with that.

[composer99]

March/April 1940

Summary of impulse: Ronnie's dice want to play the Commonwealth!

Axis Impulse #1

Pretty exciting stuff this impulse.

Battle of the Mediterranean
Well, not so exciting here. The Italians' shiny new battleship, Vittorio Veneto, sails with the recently repaired Zara (and, yes, implicit destroyer escorts [;)]) to patrol the waters of the eastern Mediterranean (3 box Eastern Med), while Bolzano and Trento drop to the 0 box.

In the central Med (Italian Coast sea area), Italian battleships and cruisers still on patrol stay at sea. (The BBs stay in the 3 box, while the CAs drop to the 0 box.)

Battle of the Atlantic
3 flotillas of Italian submarines sortie from Malta and La Spezia, bound for destinations in the Atlantic, in an effort to find and sink British merchantmen. Instead, they are all sent packing home - one flotilla with losses and damage. (One sub damaged, all three aborted over the course of two combats - one in the North Atlantic and one in Cape St Vincent, where the CW found and they didn't.)

War in China
While pulling slightly back from the CCCP formations in and around Sian, Japanese forces press onward in the south, intent on encircling KMT forces in and around Chihkiang (especially HQ Chiang). Bombers disorgaise the at gun in the hex.

War in Europe
With complete control of Dutch territory eluding them, the Germans look both to getting around the river lines the British defenders of Rotterdam are counting on and to pressing on against the French by invading Belgium. By chance, the onslaught coincides an upsurge in isolationist sentiment in the United States (the US entry roll was '10', so no marker drawn for the DoW).

The Belgian set-up was 2 units in Antwerp, the cavalry in Liege, and the fighter in the clear west of Antwerp.

The Luftwaffe takes off to pin down the British defenders of Rotterdam and the Belgian defenders of Antwerp (ground strikes). Due to confusion over whether they could enter Belgian airspace or not (i.e. the effects of surprise), the RAF does not intervene in Antwerp, while Belgian planes react far too sluggishly. However, the bombers flying to Rotterdam, along with their fighter escorts, unexpectedly encounter RAF fighters that had been assigned to patrol the skies of southwest Holland. The RAF inflicts heavy losses on the Messerschmitts and scatters the bombers enough that their raid is unsuccessful against the dug-in defenders. (CW rolled a 20 on the first round of combat, shooting down the escorting FTR, and while aborted by a roll of 14, the German ground strike rolls were 6,8 for the Stuka and, rubbing salt in the wound, 5,5 for the FTR flying as a bomber.)

The raid over Antwerp, against unprepared Belgians, bears far tastier fruit (both corps disorganised).

The Luftwaffe wasn't done, though: air transports loaded the II Fliegerkorps for a paradrop over Brussels. (Since the land combat with notional unit would have been an automatic victory, the CW denies the notional and the paratroopers end up the sole occupants of the hex.)

[Orm]

What odds (before air support) will a French attack on Brussels have?