Tyronec vs BrianG. 12.03

[joelmar]

Sviritsa looks doomed with very low CV Soviet units in the area and not much prospects of reinforcements.

Rostov might fall before mud, you have time but those last few hexes to the Don are not easy to advance with the supply leash very stretched by that point. Last time I was in that position in autumn 1941, I made a surprise thrust from Stalino after a snarky HQBU and took the city with intact industries by surprise on turn 15 I think, my opponent was a little annoyed... But I had failed at Moscow and Leningrad, so taking both Rostov and Sevastopol before blizzard by ruse were my small consolation prizes... I then gave Rostov back to shorten my lines.

Moscow is another proposition. Looking at defensive CV, he seems to have a few forts level2 on the other side of the Moskva, maybe some level 3 too. Looks like a hard fight will be going on.

From what I see a good position I think

Question, do you garrison your cities usually, I see 2 open urban hexes? Maybe because you are not done with your turn?

[redrum68]

AGN - Not sealing off that pocket along the Volkhov River could cause issues as looks like they'll open it again and its squeezing your thrust towards Sviritsa and could cause lots of ZOC movement issues or force you to use a bunch of movement to attack those units. Really depends if he decides to commit more units to those last few hexes as if he does it could be quite slow going the next few turns. If he doesn't then you should have it in 2 turns.

[joelmar]

good observation redrum68, but I doubt he will have enough CV to push the ZOC from the east. There's a river to cross in ZOC, then ZOC to ZOC in an enemy controlled marshe hex...

[tyronec]

How many engineers and artillery SUs are you using on Sevastopol?

Forgot to say.
Have 8 divisions, nearly all have 3 pioneers.
2 Corps with 6 good artillery.
Plus a good leader, think an '8'.

Just got the move back from Brian; it is looking difficult up North, will have one or two critical but uncertain combats. Am paying for my mis move last turn !

[tyronec]

AGN. My first attack failed but by routing the two stacks on the left am able to get a deliberate attack in.
Soviets have abandoned Vishny Volocek so am able to start working the rail line towards Moscow.

AGC. Get two stacks of Panzers across the river, had one critical massed infantry assault across the river against a '3' fort and then things opened up. Will have some low level forts to get stuck into next turn. The left hook now has 4 Pz Corps so the Soviets might even pull back this turn though not expecting it.

AGS. The pocket in front of Rostov was broken but the main one holds. Seal off another 3 units and push up to Rostov. My Panzers have no fuel but the Soviets seem quite weak too.
Have left a huge gap between AGC and AGS, need to send some infantry down from Moscow soon.

Sevastapol. I had got it wrong, need to get the fort down to a '1' because of the port level. Interestingly I get reasonable reduction on a 'lose' result.



Question. If I leave Leningrad Isolated over the winter, how many moves before the Soviets surrender - or do they hang on ad infinitum ?

[joelmar]

Nice progress in the north.

Interesting, you breached the Moskva line easier than I thought possible. Were those 2 hexes level 3 forts like the others?

Sevastopol is a tough nut to crack, but you're getting there Always very satisfying to take it. And your Rostov operation seems to have good chance of success, even though they can probably reinforce it significantly.

[redrum68]

AGN - Nice work. Though it seems to me that the Soviets stacked the wrong hexes. I would think he should have put more in Sviritsa and the coastal hexes leading up to it as that is the most direct path for the Germans instead they have their strong stacks further inland that you don't even need to attack...

[tyronec]

Nice progress in the north.

Interesting, you breached the Moskva line easier than I thought possible. Were those 2 hexes level 3 forts like the others?

Sevastopol is a tough nut to crack, but you're getting there Always very satisfying to take it. And your Rostov operation seems to have good chance of success, even though they can probably reinforce it significantly.

The first hex was a '3', had 3 full infantry stacks with a good leader to take it and not even certain with that. The second hex was a '2' so the blue Panzer stack took it with a Deliberate.

AGN - Nice work. Though it seems to me that the Soviets stacked the wrong hexes. I would think he should have put more in Sviritsa and the coastal hexes leading up to it as that is the most direct path for the Germans instead they have their strong stacks further inland that you don't even need to attack...

I don't think it was defendable, I could probably have cut through further East through those stacks if they had been weaker as an alternative. Axis are always better with multiple threats and the border with the Finns is long.

[redrum68]

True though it may have delayed another turn or 2 if you have to take a more round about way to Sviritsa (how much that matters, I don't really know). Seems like he's wasting a bunch of his stronger units in the area in places you don't really need to attack.

[tyronec]

True though it may have delayed another turn or 2 if you have to take a more round about way to Sviritsa (how much that matters, I don't really know). Seems like he's wasting a bunch of his stronger units in the area in places you don't really need to attack.

I think Brian has been playing well, every turn he has good stacks in nearly all the right places and is often retreating just the right distance to inhibit Axis attacks. In any case, am not inclined to be critical of my opponent.

T13.
Complicated move, took me ages to work out what to do - in particular around Moscow. WITE is the best game ever, to date !!!

Svir. The first attack wins, am going to try and create a bit more buffer to Sviritsa.

North Moscow. Soviets had made a bit of a Cavalry incursion. Rout them away. Just fail to seal a good pocket, should hopefully catch something over the next couple of turns.
Could have overrun a few airbases but resisted the temptation, keep on the main target.
I need to get across the river somewhere in the circled area next turn.

South Moscow. Soviets had made a bigger incursion, overrunning a fighter base in the process ! Don't quite get rid of them all but think they are screened OK.
Grab four more hexes across the river taking out some 2 and 3 forts, will probably have that lead Panzer chased away but I think it is worth the sacrifice, and just maybe will get a lucky combat result.

Rostov. Panzers are resting, clear the pockets from last turn and rout away a few Cav. First Guards unit appears.

Sevastapol. Surprisingly fell to the first assault. Guess I must have got a lucky fort reduction.

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: tyronec
Svir. The first attack wins, am going to try and create a bit more buffer to Sviritsa.

Take it all back - successful right hook through the Volkhov.

It does look like a deliberate decision by Brian not to go for an all out defence of Sviritsa

[tyronec]

quote:

ORIGINAL: tyronec
Svir. The first attack wins, am going to try and create a bit more buffer to Sviritsa.


Take it all back - successful right hook through the Volkhov.

It does look like a deliberate decision by Brian not to go for an all out defence of Sviritsa

It did look a bit dicey for a while.

Question - if I just leave Lenningrad Isolated how long will it take them to surrender, of do they hang on ad infinitum ?

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: tyronec
Question - if I just leave Lenningrad Isolated how long will it take them to surrender, of do they hang on ad infinitum ?

Not ad infinitum - although that may not be as soon as you want.

In v1.11.03 any units isolated in the Pripyat marshes (normal for me) tend to auto surrender after eight turns or so. What it would be in v1.12 drawing on stores in Leningrad now that they matter, plus anything flown in. No idea.

[redrum68]

I think you meant turn 15 unless you have finally figured out time travel!

AGN - Nice work. I tend to agree with @Telemecus that Brian didn't seem to put a full defense of Sviritsa. I think the question is what now with AGN? Pull most back and clear Leningrad? Try to push through the Soviet line further south then drive north to the Finnish line to create a pocket? Just hold the line you have slowly moving Finns down and use the bulk of the AGN to help the center?

North Moscow - The potential pocket you have next turn there looks pretty significant. It'll be interesting to see if he has some plan to break out of that or push more units there to create some sort of breakthrough.

And good question on Leningrad, hopefully someone answers it as I don't know either

[eskuche]

If you hover over the fort value in the battle report you can see how much was reduced pre-retreat.
Also, I'm not familiar with level bomber supplies, but in another AAR I saw it was very hard to keep airhead status on the number of stacks in Leningrad. I'm not sure how much this actually affects combat ability. Manual states the supply shortage/isolation status doesn't affect CV per se, only by the number of shots fired (which in my experience doesn't affect CV ratio that much), leader checks, and fatigue reduction by availability of supplies. If BrianG is able to keep front-line Leningrad units supplied to maintain fatigue state they still might hold out for a while.

[tyronec]

Start of T16.

Brian has pulled back from Moscow. Must say am much relieved, was maybe going to pocket them but it didn't feel that certain plus we gave variable weather.
Going to be a bit of a grind to take the main Moscow hex, will have to reduce the Fort by 2. All forts in Moscow are at 3.

I think there are two ways to prepare for Blizzard. Dig in a strong line OR advance as far as possible and then retreat to avoid deliberate attacks. Am thinking to go for the Advance approach, and also see if I can grab any more pockets - might be something possible South of Moscow.

Up North Soviets are too strong to make a pocket, especially with no Panzers. Will just push forwards a few hexes where I can.

[tyronec]

AGN. Just trying to make a bit of space around the Svir.

AGC. 29 units pocketed and the advance continues. Will be interesting to see what Brian does below Moscow next turn.

AGS. Have got across the river below Rostov with a bit of help from Model who managed to fight with I Corps at the start of the turn.

Am concerned about my weak defensive line between AGC and AGS and not sure how long it will take to reduce Moscow as I need to send some of those guys South.

[redrum68]

Nice work around Moscow. Though a bit surprised that he backed away from it so quickly. Guess maybe he figures it was a lost cause and better to start fortifying other nearby cities.

[joelmar]

@tyronec

To come back to your question about the time it takes the Soviets to auto surrender in an urban pocket, in 1.11.03, I just experience Rostov holding out for 9 turns after being pocketed along with 4 neighbouring hexes at the beginning of the spring 1942 mud period. During almost all those turns, I used the whole rumanian air force to bomb those 5 hexes turn after turn, and the rumanians dive and tac bombers are devils in the spring of 1942, regularly those bombing runs created 4000+ disruptions, thus upping fatigue, eating up supplies and impacting morale.

When I finally had a chance to attack the city hex in force on the 8th turn after the pocket, it took 2 attacks in 2 following turns by the full might of 2 german corps, 3 rumanian corps, a few more independant units and almost 30 engineer battalions. Given, the Soviets started with maybe 12 units in that pocket and ended with 3 by the magic of merging, thereby always reinforcing their best units and keeping morale better, and also dropped supplies every turn. But still, the city didn't surrender by itself.

And that was in 1.11.03 in a light-urban hex. My understanding is that in 1.12.xx, the isolated units have even more supplies from urban hexes than before. Might be much longer before any Soviet unit surrender by itself.

[chaos45]

Looks like the game is about over for the soviets in effect. Not even mud yet and Moscow taken and two large pockets of soviets in Leningrad and Moscow areas to liquidate and starve over mud turns.

Short of a miracle blizzard offensive cant see how the soviets can recover.