OT: Corona virus

[witpqs]

This is the basic choice for the US.

Is America a Roaring Giant or Crying Baby?

[Wuffer]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Red Tape:
Dr. Marty Makary claims obscure FDA regulation caused setback to coronavirus antibody test

"But our FDA has a system where, using these old regulatory rules, it insisted on sanctioning the test," Makary continued. "And we lost precious time when one of the original scientists submitted an application and was told that he had to submit it also by paper mail with a CD-ROM with the files burned on it."

To be honest, there is no specific covid-19 test available worldwide - they react to other corona types too = false positive. Otherwise it would be a real game changer.
Many claimed, but no one delivered, e.g. the actual german PR disaster.

[Nomad]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

This is the basic choice for the US.

Is America a Roaring Giant or Crying Baby?

I sure hope we pick door #1

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Red Tape:
Dr. Marty Makary claims obscure FDA regulation caused setback to coronavirus antibody test

"But our FDA has a system where, using these old regulatory rules, it insisted on sanctioning the test," Makary continued. "And we lost precious time when one of the original scientists submitted an application and was told that he had to submit it also by paper mail with a CD-ROM with the files burned on it."

To be honest, there is no specific covid-19 test available worldwide - they react to other corona types too = false positive. Otherwise it would be a real game changer.
Many claimed, but no one delivered, e.g. the actual german PR disaster.

The point of the article is they (in the US) did not get to begin deploying tests because they had to go through red tape which included archaic requirements.

[CaptBeefheart]

The missus is a nurse practitioner at one of the top three hospitals in Seoul (and therefore Korea). Although her department is pediatric neurosurgery, she said Covid treatment is mainly based on symptoms (duh). She said all admitted Covid patients "get HIV drugs or hydroxychloroquine." Ones with pneumonia-like symptoms get broad-spectrum antibiotics. The ones in very serious shape get "plasma exchange therapy," which has been 100% successful (small numbers, though). Anyway, still zero deaths in Seoul.

And I'm off to have a few pints at an outdoor venue with a mate. Good luck to you all and may your respective governments not infringe your liberties too deeply.

EDITS: Couple of clarifications on the terminology.

Cheers,
CB

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

The missus is a nurse practitioner at one of the top three hospitals in Seoul (and therefore Korea). Although her department is pediatric neurosurgery, she said Covid treatment is mainly based on symptoms (duh). She said all admitted Covid patients "get HIV drugs or hydroxychloroquine." Ones with pneumonia-like symptoms get broad-spectrum antibiotics. The ones in very serious shape get "plasma exchange therapy," which has been 100% successful (small numbers, though). Anyway, still zero deaths in Seoul.

And I'm off to have a few pints at an outdoor venue with a mate. Good luck to you all and may your respective governments not infringe your liberties too deeply.

EDITS: Couple of clarifications on the terminology.

Cheers,
CB

Thanks! This is what I imagined. I think the European, American and some other Asian countries are way behind this kind of thinking on symptomatic treatment. The HIV drugs, the famous hydroxychloroquine, and the pneumonia treatment with antibiotics. Plasma change of course would be amazing if we knew who had already had it here. Sadly, the serology tests are still not accurate enough to mass test.

A friend who had it was treated by her brother, a GP here, and he at first just advised rest and paracetamol, but once she began to get some difficult lung symptoms he prescribed antibiotics and it cleared up, so now she is recovering well. It's this mid-level, highly monitored treatment of symptoms that could lead to so many cases not getting to ICU and cytokine overload.

Enjoy that pint. Very envious.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Red Tape:
Dr. Marty Makary claims obscure FDA regulation caused setback to coronavirus antibody test

To be honest, there is no specific covid-19 test available worldwide - they react to other corona types too = false positive. Otherwise it would be a real game changer.
Many claimed, but no one delivered, e.g. the actual german PR disaster.

The point of the article is they (in the US) did not get to begin deploying tests because they had to go through red tape which included archaic requirements.

Red tape has followed this in so many places, not just the US. The sereology tests here are said to be delayed until mid-may, the claim being they're not accurate enough yet. Probably the same as Wuffer mentioned in Germany.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Nomad

ORIGINAL: witpqs

This is the basic choice for the US.

Is America a Roaring Giant or Crying Baby?

I sure hope we pick door #1

Judging by some of the proposals in this article I sure hope we pick neither. Somewhere in between please.

[Encircled]

This is looking increasingly like many of the discussions you saw in the UK over Brexit!

My old working life (before kids) was in UK-EU haulage and UK-EU freight ferries.

I was constantly amazed at the expertise level that people claimed on this which was based on nothing more than newspaper articles that reinforced their beliefs.

It makes it very hard to have a discussion on stuff like this and remain within the guidelines.

But overall, this is going much more civily than a Brexit discussion!

Well done all!

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive


So I think the question is now - where next?

It seems to me that in Europe and the US we have got on top of the epidemic through 'brute force'. But that strategy is not sustainable economically. It seems to be generally accepted that a vaccine is likely still a year away. What happens in the meantime?

This is the hammer. The comments about this being like the flu so why close the entire economy forget that we've essentially escaped the catastrophe this would have caused if allowed to run through the populace unchecked. Like millions instead of thousands of deaths.

Where do people think the 'holding pattern' is? The balance between economic recovery and avoiding a return to day 1 of an epidemic curve.

South Korea seems to have done a good job of keeping on top of things. But some of the strategies they have used would seem to be anathema to the European/American public. To what extent do we feel comfortable with that kind of heavy monitoring and involvement from 'big government'?

In more general terms (setting aside the public health specifics) how are we going to deal with what looks likely to be a global recession, if not an equivalent of the Great Depression of the 1930s? Do we carry on as normal in the belief that the free market will right itself naturally? Or will we need to make a paradigm shift in our beliefs about the economy and society?

South Korea is getting this all right. They slammed the hammer on Daegu, case tracked like crazy there and everywhere else, treat symptoms effectively and appropriately to limit severe cases, and now are in the Dance phase. This involves having most things open, including all major industry, and continuing to test, track, and isolate outbreaks. Some restrictions on larger gatherings or even small ones in closed quarters stay in place.

This is the article linked before with a ton of info about these phases and their outcomes. Now dated but still relevant.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... 9337092b56

Interestingly there is a lot of talk about my industry, education, being opened earlier than some others. I'm not confident that's a good idea, mostly because kids are often asymptomatic or mild symptomatic carriers/transmitters of this one. My friend caught it from her son, aged 1, who caught it in the nursery where our daughter goes as well. We'd pulled her three days before they did, but of course our family all could have had it with mild or no symptoms already too.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

This is looking increasingly like many of the discussions you saw in the UK over Brexit!

My old working life (before kids) was in UK-EU haulage and UK-EU freight ferries.

I was constantly amazed at the expertise level that people claimed on this which was based on nothing more than newspaper articles that reinforced their beliefs.

And no matter how extreme those are, you can find some support for them out there, right?

It makes it very hard to have a discussion on stuff like this and remain within the guidelines.

But overall, this is going much more civily than a Brexit discussion!

Well done all!

A few bumps, but overall, especially at times that invite more international participation, the thread is very productive. I notice no conflict at all between the hours of 06:00 GMT and about 10:00 GMT. [;)]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

Good news!

Cautious interim result of a mass investigation in one of the largest clusters in Germany:

14% have gone through the infection and show antibodies and not, as previously assumed, 5%.


Therefore, the death rate can be corrected considerably downwards: to about 0.37%

Yeah, this virus seemed to be a man with education and taste, as Jagger said.
German source:
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/med ... ssion=true

Bad news.

if it's to good to be true than it isn't true.
Probably a severe systematic error — they claimed : "An existing immunity of approx. 14% (anti-SARS-CoV2 IgG positive, specificity of the method >.99 %) was determined".

Problem: there is no specific antibody test for Covid-19 developed yet — the test reacts probably on all corona-types including complete meaningless crap (at least four other humanpathogenic but harmless virus)

The study already disappeared from the official website of the state. Rise and Fall of an overambitious professor.

Crap. Idiots. Mea culpa.
So, o.37 % fatality is dead as s dodo.

Well, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss this. Thinking that there are many more than we know out there is still the right way to go, even if we can't yet test for them. I have been an advocate all along for a lower than advertised mortality, based on a lot of different factors including the Diamond Princess, the Korean rates, and some of the smaller more isolated countries that have done a load of testing (Faroes, Iceland, etc).

The higher rates seem correlated to areas when symptoms cannot be treated effectively, where it gets into more vulnerable population primarily, and when testing is not getting the mild and asymptomatic cases outside of hospitals into the records.

[TulliusDetritus]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

This is the basic choice for the US.

Is America a Roaring Giant or Crying Baby?

A cry-baby no doubt.

The US as we knew them (pre-2008) are finished. You want to stop historical processes and that is not going to work eh. Yes, sure, an asteriod could hit Shanghai tomorrow. Or a mega tsunami swallow the whole US continental landmass for that matter. Or the aliens... or whatever...

The basic historical process is that capitalism has already migrated to the east. Do I need to say it? Power and strenght are where capitalism flourishes (China as we speak, are you following me, captain knucklehead?). Many people don't get this massive geopolitical shift going on under our very eyes. We are living interesting times no doubt.

There were various US. Pre civil war, you had a nation of free farmers. Post civil war, a robber barons' industrialised state. After FDR and WW2, the golden age, a nation with flourishing working and middle classes

Well, reaganomics brought in fact the future proletarisation of these two classes (the middle class is in fact going to extinction as we speak). On the other hand US plutocrats made obscene fortunes, as per the plan eh.

So you're talking about an US that do not exist anymore in the first place. It's finito, kaputt, over. You seem to not grasp the most basic capitalist concepts. Capitalism demands one thing above everything else: cheap labour. No Chinese wall can stop this drive rofl Manufactures are not coming back, you naive souls... unless you accept Chinese (or Vietnamese, Mexican etc) wages. The most ironic fact is that ONLY socialism would have stopped this historical process. You're gunna luv capitalism's tendencies (which you do not even understand).

I have not the slightest doubt that your oligarchic masters will keep thriving selling their slices of paper until the world says "hey man, we don't want your slices of paper anymore" (munching their caviar with their Chinese, European counterparts), but the conditions that made possible post FDR's golden age have already disappeared: a healthy, sane working and middle classes. That WAS the real backbone of US prosperity and grandeur.

Oh, the last sign (of a serie of many signs). China knocks US from top spot in global patent race...

But perhaps the most clear sign of the state of decay is Mr Maduro's affair. It is well known that the Caribbean Sea always was a vital strategic zone. Well, looks like the US cannot even impose their will on this critical area (their hilarious puppet Guaidollar that is). Houston, we have a problem! And funny ignorant captain knucklehead here wants to force the Chinese to pay trillions HAHAHAHAHA poor troll who's not understood anything... keep braying, bigmouth, you're hilarious!

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

ORIGINAL: witpqs

This is the basic choice for the US.

Is America a Roaring Giant or Crying Baby?

A cry-baby no doubt.

The US as we knew them (pre-2008) are finished. You want to stop historical processes and that is not going to work eh. Yes, sure, an asteriod could hit Shanghai tomorrow. Or a mega tsunami swallow the whole US continental landmass for that matter. Or the aliens... or whatever...

The basic historical process is that capitalism has already migrated to the east. Do I need to say it? Power and strenght are where capitalism flourishes (China as we speak, are you following me, captain knucklehead?). Many people don't get this massive geopolitical shift going on under our very eyes. We are living interesting times no doubt.

There were various US. Pre civil war, you had a nation of free farmers. Post civil war, a robber barons' industrialised state. After FDR and WW2, the golden age, a nation with flourishing working and middle classes

Well, reaganomics brought in fact the future proletarisation of these two classes (the middle class is in fact going to extinction as we speak). On the other hand US plutocrats made obscene fortunes, as per the plan eh.

So you're talking about an US that do not exist anymore in the first place. It's finito, kaputt, over. You seem to not grasp the most basic capitalist concepts. Capitalism demands one thing above everything else: cheap labour. No Chinese wall can stop this drive rofl Manufactures are not coming back, you naive souls... unless you accept Chinese (or Vietnamese, Mexican etc) wages. The most ironic fact is that ONLY socialism would have stopped this historical process. You're gunna luv capitalism's tendencies (which you do not even understand).

I have not the slightest doubt that your oligarchic masters will keep thriving selling their slices of paper until the world says "hey man, we don't want your slices of paper anymore" (munching their caviar with their Chinese, European counterparts), but the conditions that made possible post FDR's golden age have already disappeared: a healthy, sane working and middle classes. That WAS the real backbone of US prosperity and grandeur.

Oh, the last sign (of a serie of many signs). China knocks US from top spot in global patent race...

But perhaps the most clear sign of the state of decay is Mr Maduro's affair. It is well known that the Caribbean Sea always was a vital strategic zone. Well, looks like the US cannot even impose their will on this critical area (their hilarious puppet Guaidollar that is). Houston, we have a problem! And funny ignorant captain knucklehead here wants to force the Chinese to pay trillions HAHAHAHAHA poor troll who's not understood anything... keep braying, bigmouth, you're hilarious.

There is no need to insult anybody.

[Encircled]

I don't think its meant as an insult.

Its certainly thought provoking.

[RangerJoe]

captain knucklehead

Is that not insulting?

[Encircled]

Not if you look at the way he's been describing other people no

Look, I'm assuming its a "if you give it, then you have to take it" kinda thing going on here.

[Wuffer]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

Good news!

Cautious interim result of a mass investigation in one of the largest clusters in Germany:

14% have gone through the infection and show antibodies and not, as previously assumed, 5%.


Therefore, the death rate can be corrected considerably downwards: to about 0.37%

Yeah, this virus seemed to be a man with education and taste, as Jagger said.
German source:
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/med ... ssion=true

Bad news.

if it's to good to be true than it isn't true.
Probably a severe systematic error — they claimed : "An existing immunity of approx. 14% (anti-SARS-CoV2 IgG positive, specificity of the method >.99 %) was determined".

Problem: there is no specific antibody test for Covid-19 developed yet — the test reacts probably on all corona-types including complete meaningless crap (at least four other humanpathogenic but harmless virus)

The study already disappeared from the official website of the state. Rise and Fall of an overambitious professor.

Crap. Idiots. Mea culpa.
So, o.37 % fatality is dead as s dodo.

Well, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss this. Thinking that there are many more than we know out there is still the right way to go, even if we can't yet test for them. I have been an advocate all along for a lower than advertised mortality, based on a lot of different factors including the Diamond Princess, the Korean rates, and some of the smaller more isolated countries that have done a load of testing (Faroes, Iceland, etc).

The higher rates seem correlated to areas when symptoms cannot be treated effectively, where it gets into more vulnerable population primarily, and when testing is not getting the mild and asymptomatic cases outside of hospitals into the records.

The whole affair turns into an entertaining spectacle of power and politics.

We have here an equally ambitious and young up-and-coming professor of virology who has undoubtedly done a lot to contain it - actually ran from door to door and probably talked to more patients than anyone else.

We have a prime minister (goveneur) with ambitions for the chancellorship.

So far, so good. Now a former editor-in-chief of the worst Yeĺlowpress comes into play, along with another dubious PR professional (the husband of our former Foreign Minister Westerwelle), who unselfishly suggested to our virologist that he publish his results through their agency "Storymachine".



All the other violinists (edit: just a nice example of this autocorrection, read: virolists had been in the media daily, and next to them even the Minister of Health faded away.

Shortly before Easter our hero is now allowed to present first preliminary results, probably he hadn't slept for three nights.

A meagre paper, a stammered conference... and now the media professionals take over and create the total media spin: Everything harmless, we can finally talk about the lifting of the contact ban etc.

Right before a summer Easter weekend, you transfer preliminary test results, which are questionable in terms of methodology, to the whole country - yellow press.

Thousends of misinformed citicens have now a reason to suspend not only the contact ban, but risk all achievements - turning! the curve. That's the point - their test couldn't difference between Covid-19 and the common cold for example! When testing with old blood samples from last year you got positive results too, but there was no Covid-19 at that time... scheiße.

Otherwise I completely agree with you, the virus is much less letal than we thought earlier, but probably more than one in 300 (o.37 %). The thing was the irresponsible communication and spreading through all media, while so far everything was very very serious.
Thx god I added a 'cautioness' in my reporting.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: obvert


especially at times that invite more international participation

Is there any time soon that you intend to dial back your offensive commentary?

I'll wait for a civil response before applying the green button.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: obvert


especially at times that invite more international participation

Is there any time soon that you intend to dial back your offensive commentary?

I'll wait for a civil response before applying the green button.

Jeez Hans, when did you become such a...what's the term again? Snowflake?