Defender of the Revolution: Q-Ball v Tarhunnas

[Flaviusx]

I think an offensive to cross the Dnepr once it freezes over is the correct strategy. Once past there, he's got no real defensible terrain until you hit the Carpathians, practically.

And this will unlock the rest of the map. He can't hold an extended front north of the Pripyet when the Soviet is pressing on Poland and Romania. Moscow will be yours almost by default. Leningrad will be a tougher nut to crack, but you may want to simply bypass that altogether and dare him to hold it while you advance towards Belorussia and the Baltic republics.

[glvaca]

Just read the complete AAR and what a great read!

A couple of interesting points, with complete benifit of hindsight [;)], is that from ready to give up in 1941 you actually turned it around completely during the winter. What an awesome counter offensive! And what an absolute blunder to grind his panzer corps into the ground and failing to prepare for winter!

Also very interesting is that I read the complete AAR from your opponent of his match against gibs first and it is clear he has actually follwed the very same strategy in both games, with very different outcomes!

So IMHO, the balance of the game should not be questioned. With the new patches allowing the German the chance to get through the winter much better in forts etc... the German stands a good chance to ride it out IF he prepares. Which is exactly what he didn't do. Secondly, you did what a Soviet player needs to do, preserve your army at the expense of territory.

I think what this game proves is that if and when:
1. The German player pushes for territory extreeemly agressively
2. Without regard for losses
3. And not able to kill enough Russians in the process
4. And is unprepared for the Russian winter offensive
5. That is well prepared as you have done.
6. And then tries to fight it out instead of retreating.

He's going to get what he deserves! A good beating! And that is exactly as it should be. The German player cannot afford to mistreat his Pz divs the way he did, these guys need to be threated with respect. Grinding them into the ground against a Soviet player who knows his business is suicide!
It's actually a replay of history, exept that the Russians have lost far less in terms of their army as historical.
Really happy to see how the game has evolved. The first winter rules in the game turned me off big time, now I think it's time to start a pbem game!

[Q-Ball]

Thanks for the compliment, though I think the Germans still need some help. Tarhunnas made some mistakes and overextended himself, and so deserved to be reduced somewhat in 1942 in terms of what he could accomplish. But to be completely out of it is probably extreme.

I hated to just build elaborate defenses in depth and force him to make multiple attacks to move forward, but that's absolutely the best strategy.

11/5/42: MUD

Nothing going on on the map, other than moving units to the front. A good time, though, to update the numbers, and also strategy of what I am building.

Building the Red Army: I built 14 Artillery Divisions as soon as I could. I have built some Guards Rifle Corps, but I am hoarding APs to have close to 500 when January 1943 hits, I can convert a bunch cheaper. I might just form 50 Corps then.

I stopped building TANK units, but will start again as soon as I have more vehicles. I have piles of tanks in the pool, and will eventually assign tank units all over the place. I "only" have 9,100 tanks on the map; we can push that number higher.

In terms of PRODUCTION, my Armament levels are fine. I am producing about 110,000 Manpower per turn; higher than before, due to repair of Manpower I captured during the Blizzard.

Leaders: Screenshot below on leaders; I haven't posted much before, let me know what you think.

[M60A3TTS]

You start with 370 APs so he knocked off 62. 

[Q-Ball]

11/12/42: Snow

The Soviet Winter Offensive has begun. Of course, the Red Army has no supply limitations at all, so we are attacking virtually everywhere along the front, save for the Dnepr River line; I am accumulating units back there, hopefully in secret, and waiting for the River to freeze. Total reinforcements are 5 Guards Rifle Corps, 4 Artillery Divisions, and a Tank Army.

We attacked 45 times, 32 successfully. Most attacks had little tactical subtlety; if it failed, we moved some guys back for fresh units and tried again. Most of the time, #2 succeeded. We pushed back 1 hex in several spots, but no breakthroughs; always a 2nd line of units.

We really ground down the Wehrmacht though; check the losses. I don't see Tarhunnas or anyone really surviving this kind of onslaught long term.

Is it like this because I suffered so little in 1942, bringing 7.6 mil Russians to the party at this point? (That is my OOB) Or is this typical for 1943.

[76mm]

Q-ball, I see that you are also facing a heavily fortified line with stacks of divisions--are you attacking those 50-80 CV defensive stacks with your relatively puny divisional stacks, or only with corps stacks? The initial odds have scared me off attacking divisions. Also, to what extent have you beefed up your armies and rifle corps with sappers?

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: 76mm

Q-ball, I see that you are also facing a heavily fortified line with stacks of divisions--are you attacking those 50-80 CV defensive stacks with your relatively puny divisional stacks, or only with corps stacks? The initial odds have scared me off attacking divisions. Also, to what extent have you beefed up your armies and rifle corps with sappers?

I didn't attack those big stacks. That was the result of pushing back units on top of other units.

I am using some CORPS, but I am hoarding APs instead to go on a Corps-building frenzy when 1943 starts (and the cost drops to 10 AP). I plan to have nearly 500 APs by the calendar turn, and build 40+ Corps.

Every Rifle Corps has at least 1 Sapper. Most have a Tank Unit too. I am filling STAVKA with 50 more Sappers to stock-up for 1943, and plan to add Tank and SU Regts when I start getting more Lead Lease Vehicles. At the moment, I have 165 Sapper Regts, and climbing. On-Map, I have 9000 AFVs, and hope to push that above 12K

I built 14 Artillery Divisions, and I built a Heavy Rocket Bde to check it out. It's only a Brigade, but has alot of Rockets, and looks promising.

[M60A3TTS]

Do you have any Guards Armies?  A few more months and it's Breakthrough Artillery Division time.  Could be fun  [:D]

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

Do you have any Guards Armies?  A few more months and it's Breakthrough Artillery Division time.  Could be fun  [:D]

I have 5 Guards Armies. Guards Armies though just add 5 to morale for non-guards units, that's it. So ironically, Guards Armies tend to be less capable, as they are filled with Regulars. Seems counterintuitive, but there it is.

Snow Turns: 11/19 and 11/26/42:

The game has slowed down a bit due to Tarhunnas's RL time, but we are slogging along, literally and figuratively.

The last 2 turns have been unexciting from a MAP standpoint; we are mostly picking on stacks here and there and pushing them back. No breakthroughs; generally, it's taking all my front-line strength to push the stacks, and they retreat to defensible positions one-hex back. Tarhunnas has forts in depth, which makes exploitation attacks pretty much impossible.

MOSCOW:

We are pushing here and there. NORTH of town, Kalinin front is approaching Khimki, and we have pushed back two hexes. CENTRAL MOSCOW was abandoned, and re-captured by the RED ARMY; the other two hexes are now the Fascist front-line. I am confident we'll have it cleared by the end of winter.

SOUTH of Moscow, there is a very strong defense line, but we are pushing south of it, toward the NW. KALUGA fell, and we are still advancing one hex at a time. Tarhunnas has also withdrawn back a hex after I cracked a couple lines, which is limiting my attacks.

CENTER:

Between BRYANSK, and into the KURSK bulge, we are hitting heavy resistance.

Near Bryansk, we have pushed the fascists back on the river, but are now halted, waiting for it to freeze.

In the BULGE, we have moved 1-2 hexes WEST, but now pretty much halted against a Panzer Corps.

SOUTH:

2-hex advance around POLTAVA; we are flaking the town from both directions. It will probably take the winter to take it.

Further south, a line of 5 Romanian Divisions hold the mouth of the Dnepr near Nikolev. I have amassed 4 Artillery Divisions, 5 Guards Rifle Corps, and I have a Tank Army on the way. I am trying to be sneaky (Shhhhh!), and will hit it when the river freezes. No sign of massive reinforcements yet. This attack figures to be the main winter event; the rest is just diversion and grinding the Wehrmacht.

LOSSES:
So far, losses are trending about 2-1 to 2.5-1 in favor of the Germans; but this is to my favor overall. The Germans fell below 3 mil in strength last turn, I am now at 7.6 mil. I can replace my losses, he can't.

I think Tarhunnas's defense is good, I don't think any player can withstand this kind of assualt long-term. It's a numbers game. I don't think I am doing anything special at all, other than I am protecting my flanks, so he doesn't really have opportunities to encircle my forces. But as for the attack, I'm just lining up units until I think I have enough, and press the "Attack" button. Pretty simple. But effective enough I guess.

My manpower losses are acceptable. I am losing piles and piles of tanks, almost 1000 a turn at the moment, but I am OK there. Most of my losses are T-60s and T-70s, and I have a fair number of tanks in the pool. Most of the Lend Lease tanks are just accumulating in the pool, so they are a fall-back in case my losses are really out of hand. But I don't worry about it. In fact, I would like to get more tanks on the board, because they are a great firepower multiplier, if you don't have unlimited manpower. So far in the game, I have lost 34,500 AFVs.

Vehicles right now are a problem. I am almost 40K short now, and I have stopped creating any mobile units. Starting January, I should be able to close the gap, but I probably can't build more Mech Corps or Tank Regts until March or April, when I begin to accumulate surplus again.

I am still creating Sapper Units, and I have hordes of them. I love Sappers!

[wpurdom]

With the adjustment in Soviet manpower-based reinforcements, I assume that 2.5 to 1 becomes more questionable in 1943. Of course when the artillery divisions kick in, I assume it will be harder for Tarhunnas to maintain those rations.

[Q-Ball]

12/3/42: Blizzard

The Rivers of Russian are frozen solid, which means it's time to begin the main phase of the Winter Offensive: Crossing the Dnepr!

MOSCOW:

We continue to slog on either side of Moscow. Tarhunnas's defense in depth is preventing any breakthroughs at all. He is also conceding hexes of Moscow rather than risk encirclement; only W Moscow is still in Fascist hands. The rest is liberated.

I pulled a few units for the SOUTH, but we are going to keep the pressure up, to prevent Tarhunnas from doing the same.

CENTER:

It is very slow going here; he heavily reinforced the Hungarians in the Kursk bulge; the Panzer Corps there is preventing me from making more than a hex or two of progress.

North of Poltava, we advanced 1 hex along a fairly broad front

SOUTH:

Here was the main action.

I didn't want to tip my hand too much, but I did get artillery and 4 Guards Corps opposite the Romanians, I think undetected. They attacked accross the Ice, clearing 5 hexes, and getting troops to the other side in each place. One of those units that crossed was a Guards Rifle Corps; it's unlikely he can push them back. So I should be firmly accross. I expect Panzers to show-up here shortly.

I just railroaded in the 2nd Tank Army, consisting of 3 Guards Tank Corps, 2 Mech Corps, and a Guards Cav Corps. This is commanded by Rotmitsov. I think we can cause some trouble here....

[Q-Ball]

12/3/42: Death by Numbers

Here is the disturbing part, though, which is probably going to end this game sometime in 1943: I don't think the Wehrmacht can take this very long.

German strength is dwindling again, to just above 2.9 mil, while I make-good my losses. The last two turns, I have been less than 2-1 in Manpower. I have lost PILES of Tanks, but I have thousands in the pool; I am losing close to 800 a turn, but I estimate I can sustain that pace for 10-12 more turns at least before even dipping into the M3 Grants and other crappy tank types. I am building over 520 Light/Medium tanks a turn, and I have 3,200 in the pool (T-60,M3 Stuarts,Matildas,Valentines,t-34s). It would take massive losses to feel the pinch. This is despite me creating lots of Tank Units.

Frankly, I don't think any player, no matter how good, can run the Wehrmacht through losses like this. Maybe under 1.05 it will be different, since with fewer Reds, and lower-morale Red Army, and higher-morale Germans, and more Germans through use of Hiwis....maybe all those factors allow Tarhunnas to launch a credible 1942 offensive. Which would kill more Reds, and capture Manpower, all of which would mean I would now have much less than 7.6 mil guys, and they would be lower morale to boot.

At this point, Tarhunnas is doomed to grind it out until the Wehrmacht collapses, and I don't think he can do anything about it. My attacks have about Zero tactical subtlety, other than accumulating mass, and sending everyone over the top. Tarhunnas's dispositions make breakthroughs pretty much impossible, because there are always trenches to retreat to for him, which is good defensive design. That doesn't keep the Wehrmacht from getting slowly ground to death though.

As soon as I get more Vehicles, I am going to put even more tanks on the board. I will start creating lots of Assault Gun Regts, and attach those to every Rifle Corps. I basically will push it as far as production, and available attachment slots will allow. AFVs are a great firepower multiplier, and pushing it to the max, I can get so much firepower at the front the Wehrmacht will collapse completely. And there is nothing Tarhunnas can do about it.

My next PBEM will be as Germans, and I hope I have more of a chance than this. Looking at Soviet production is enough to make a German player depressed!

[olivier34]

Those numbers are very impressive and you are right, it is depressing for a german player...But you need to be very well organized to deal with so many men and armament, don't you ?
Great AAR ! thanks
Olivier

[KenchiSulla]

I am currently playing a "Soviet" game vs Helio and am keeping track of vehicle position of the SU across the game.. it seems the reds have it to easy in the supply situation to me!

[ComradeP]

Q-Ball, keep in mind that at some point your mobile corps will all start requesting SU's (as in: the assault guns) or ISU's, so don't go overboard with SU support units as the production rate isn't great aside from the SU-76M, which is in turn not a great assault gun, a poor man's StuG.

[Q-Ball]

12/17/42: Blizzard

The Red Army's Winter offensive continues. Some important geographic points have fallen, but more importantly, the Wehrmacht appears seriously strained.

MOSCOW:

Tarhunnas abandoned the rest of Moscow the last couple turns, and we have already pushed a couple hexes West.

Mostly what this does is simplify the railnet, as alot of lines converge around Moscow, so transportation got alot easier. The Railyards will improve rail capacity once fixed, though I don't feel short of rail capacity anyway, so not sure it really matters.

We are going to continue pushing WEST here. We already have troops in place, and we can still bleed the Wehrmacht, so attacks continue. Next stop: Vyazma!

BRYANSK:

Bryansk was abandoned by Tarhunnas. I think he is running out of trench here, and this appears to be a problem area for him. I am railing a few more units here to push a bit harder. By attacking NW, I might force him to pull the Moscow forces back toward Smolensk.

SOUTH:

Poltava fell, and we are pushing SW along a broad front, about 1 hex per turn. German casualties have been frightful in this sector, and the Italians have taken it on the chin as well.

DNEPR:

I sense this sector is close to collapse. The forts have basically run-out, and there isn't any defensive terrain short of the Carpathians, at least not until the rivers thaw. My biggest problem is just moving enough units up to sustain attacks. This problem will go away in a couple turns, when January hits and I spend my AP hoard on Corps.

Red Army Status:

This turn, we inflicted 45,000 axis casualties, for 65,000 Russian. That is a terrible ratio for Tarhunnas, and just not good. Not much he can do about it either, other than running for Poland.

My APs are up to 425; I have been hoarding to wait for January, when Rifle Corps are 10 instead of 20 APs, and will use them to make as many as I can right away. That will clean up the unit clutter near the front.

My Vehicle situation is bad; 125K, vs. a need of 200K. Part of that is the weather, but when 1943 hits, I need to accumulate a bigger reserve. By my calculations, I should gain about 2,000 trucks a turn if I don't build anything, so I plan to do that for 2-3 months to hopefully close that gap a bit, before starting again on Tank Regts and Mech Corps. In 1944 you get 6000 a turn Lend Lease, which should solve all problems very quickly!

[Flaviusx]

Out of curiosity, how many of these are marginal 1-1 sorts of attacks Q-ball? Is the dreaded +1 rule inflating results here?

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Out of curiosity, how many of these are marginal 1-1 sorts of attacks Q-ball? Is the dreaded +1 rule inflating results here?

I would say the vast majority. I am lining-up attacks mostly by only using enough units to go over 1-1 on visible CV. Sometimes just a bit over, sometimes much over. Most of the time, this works. I try to "save" a couple units to exploit or at least move into the vacated hex. There is no doubt I am pushing the limits on this, because I want to see if the game is "broken" into 1943, by pushing the Red Army to the limit.

I am on the fence in the 1-1 or 2-1 debate. I would like to see the other changes first; elminating that rule, AND changing morale and replacements and all that stuff, I think that might risk overcorrection. Without it, it should be very possible for the Germans to build a fortified wall in 1942 that cannot be breached.

A bigger problem is that the Wehrmacht suffers way too high retreat losses, IMO.

[76mm]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball
I am on the fence in the 1-1 or 2-1 debate. I would like to see the other changes first; elminating that rule, AND changing morale and replacements and all that stuff, I think that might risk overcorrection. Without it, it should be very possible for the Germans to build a fortified wall in 1942 that cannot be breached.

A bigger problem is that the Wehrmacht suffers way too high retreat losses, IMO.

This is my view as well, although I am not 100% sure. To get a 2:1 attack on a German stack in a level 4 fort would be a real challenge.

[Flaviusx]

The rule is under review. My own view, based on these results and others, is that it needs to go by this point of the game. It makes things a bit too easy in 1942 as the Soviet can contrive to launch many such attacks.

But no promises, that's just my own opinion.

As for the possibility of a wall that cannot be breached, I personally doubt this. Once the Red Army hits its stride in 1943 no fortified line can stop it. It's just a question of the proper application of overwhelming force. I'm more concerned that the process is being accelerated artificially by this rule.