Notes from a Small Island

[mind_messing]

These big, long games tend to end with a whisper.

I know the feeling. The effort required for a turn seems to increase exponentially after 1943. Moving from '45 back to '41 and '42 seems like going from Field Marshal to Captain...

I've had a blast with the game. The only thing that's tarnished it, for me, is the growing realization that Japan is just broken (I think).

Japan isn't broken - your strategy was.

There was some good discussion around what the Allied focus should have been from Bullwinkle, Alfred, Lokasenna and others at earlier stages of the game.

You seemed to lack belief in the quantity of Allied assets to be able to effect a landing on Honshu. While it would have been far from bloodless, it removed the opportunity to make best use of the vastly superior Allied army, and left large VP centres in Japanese hands.

Conscious that it's one thing to sit from the side-lines and judge and another to play the game itself, but I'm confident that on reflection, you'll agree that you veered away from paying the butcher's bill to generate the big VP swings needed for victory earlier.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think there are many of us following the AAR for the match between Obvert and Lowpe. That came to a sudden end early this week. Quite of few Forumites have posted congratulations, but overall the traffic has been pretty slow. These big, long games tend to end with a whisper.

That's what's going to happen here, too. For a year, I've been certain that Erik had the means to trigger a massive counterattack and was biding his time. But it's increasingly likely that Japan is running on fumes and he missed his last best chance. So the Allied juggernaut gathers steam and is making big strides towards victory. Sometime in the next week or two, that horribly weak trumpet flourish will announce 2:1 and the game will end. It will end with Erik expressing relief that the long slog is over. And the game will limp into the history books with little notice or reason to be noticed.

I've had a blast with the game. The only thing that's tarnished it, for me, is the growing realization that Japan is just broken (I think).

Been following this and the Obvert/Lowpe game.
I'm just not the backslapping type.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think there are many of us following the AAR for the match between Obvert and Lowpe. That came to a sudden end early this week. Quite of few Forumites have posted congratulations, but overall the traffic has been pretty slow. These big, long games tend to end with a whisper.

That's what's going to happen here, too. For a year, I've been certain that Erik had the means to trigger a massive counterattack and was biding his time. But it's increasingly likely that Japan is running on fumes and he missed his last best chance. So the Allied juggernaut gathers steam and is making big strides towards victory. Sometime in the next week or two, that horribly weak trumpet flourish will announce 2:1 and the game will end. It will end with Erik expressing relief that the long slog is over. And the game will limp into the history books with little notice or reason to be noticed.

I've had a blast with the game. The only thing that's tarnished it, for me, is the growing realization that Japan is just broken (I think).

Been following this and the Obvert/Lowpe game.
I'm just not the backslapping type.

I learn a lot from reading the AARs so I thank them.

If someone doesn't want a pixelated blood bath that is fine as well. I think that was Greyjoy's problem in the AAR that made me interested in this game, when he invaded Hokkaido then invaded Honshu and got bogged down.

[T Rav]

Not looking forward to your sabbatical. Understand it, but I'll miss your posts.

T Rav

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for your thoughts, MindMessing.

There was a time when I had to make that call - invade Japan or concentrate on China. It's possible the former would have driven the Allies to a quicker victory, but I didn't think so. I didn't think so then or now.

Your memory about the input from the Peanut Gallery is pretty spotty. I remember you chiming in. I'm 99.9% sure that neither Alfred, Bullwinkle or Lokasenna commented in any way. They'd bowed out of the AAR or the community much, much earlier.

I took into consideration many factors that you aren't/weren't privy to. For instance, it is essential that the Allies conquer most of China - especially big denominator bases like Chengtu and Chungking. That's more than 5,000 denominator points right there. But given the house rules and the cards I was dealt, China couldn't be reconquered without a full commitment by the Russians and/or Western Allies. The House Rules had a material impact on that, and I doubt you have any notion of those rules or how they impacted the game.

And when that tough decision was made, the Allied aircraft pools were drained and without replacements. Starting a massive, no-holds-barred air battle over Japan when I had limited resources and Erik (apparently) didn't seemed fraught with too much risk. It was better to wait until the P-51H came online, finally permitting the Allies to contest the air space over the Home Islands.

There were many other factors that led me to believe the course of action I took was the best option. I might have been wrong. Another player might've done differently and did better than I did. But I'm satisfied with the decision and feel pretty sure that a lot of players would've stepped into it with both shoes had then attacked Erik when he was still fully supplied and had the upper hand in the air war.

[Canoerebel]

2/1/46

Victory Marching: Sapporo falls and the enemy stack is trapped. Muroran's defenses are cracking and it's stack is trapped too. First Allied general attack at Hong Kong tomorrow (a probing preliminary attack two days ago showed an adjusted enemy AV of 18k, which is gonna take some time). Allied lead up to 83k. That's just 7k from victory. Sapporo has a level 9 airfield with lots of aviation support inbound. The fighter corps will move forward in a few days, to being working on Tokyo. That should be fun.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think there are many of us following the AAR for the match between Obvert and Lowpe. That came to a sudden end early this week. Quite of few Forumites have posted congratulations, but overall the traffic has been pretty slow. These big, long games tend to end with a whisper.

That's what's going to happen here, too. For a year, I've been certain that Erik had the means to trigger a massive counterattack and was biding his time. But it's increasingly likely that Japan is running on fumes and he missed his last best chance. So the Allied juggernaut gathers steam and is making big strides towards victory. Sometime in the next week or two, that horribly weak trumpet flourish will announce 2:1 and the game will end. It will end with Erik expressing relief that the long slog is over. And the game will limp into the history books with little notice or reason to be noticed.

I've had a blast with the game. The only thing that's tarnished it, for me, is the growing realization that Japan is just broken (I think).

Been following this and the Obvert/Lowpe game.
I'm just not the backslapping type.

I learn a lot from reading the AARs so I thank them.

If someone doesn't want a pixelated blood bath that is fine as well. I think that was Greyjoy's problem in the AAR that made me interested in this game, when he invaded Hokkaido then invaded Honshu and got bogged down.

He did get bogged down but the big issue IIRC that caused the game to stall out was that he could not bring in other invasion shipping because the Air Combat model let too many bombers get through massive CAP. The problem was that the Air Combat model did not allow enough interactions to make the CAP effective. When the maximum number of interactions was bumped up sharply, a more realistic CAP effectiveness was apparent and very few leakers got through. Unfortunately that was a long time after Greyjoy shelved that game. Greyjoy also had some personal life issues including the passing of his father to deal with. His legend lives on!

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks for your thoughts, MindMessing.

There was a time when I had to make that call - invade Japan or concentrate on China. It's possible the former would have driven the Allies to a quicker victory, but I didn't think so. I didn't think so then or now.

Your memory about the input from the Peanut Gallery is pretty spotty. I remember you chiming in. I'm 99.9% sure that neither Alfred, Bullwinkle or Lokasenna commented in any way. They'd bowed out of the AAR or the community much, much earlier.

I took into consideration many factors that you aren't/weren't privy to. For instance, it is essential that the Allies conquer most of China - especially big denominator bases like Chengtu and Chungking. That's more than 5,000 denominator points right there. But given the house rules and the cards I was dealt, China couldn't be reconquered without a full commitment by the Russians and/or Western Allies. The House Rules had a material impact on that, and I doubt you have any notion of those rules or how they impacted the game.

And when that tough decision was made, the Allied aircraft pools were drained and without replacements. Starting a massive, no-holds-barred air battle over Japan when I had limited resources and Erik (apparently) didn't seemed fraught with too much risk. It was better to wait until the P-51H came online, finally permitting the Allies to contest the air space over the Home Islands.

There were many other factors that led me to believe the course of action I took was the best option. I might have been wrong. Another player might've done differently and did better than I did. But I'm satisfied with the decision and feel pretty sure that a lot of players would've stepped into it with both shoes had then attacked Erik when he was still fully supplied and had the upper hand in the air war.

Much of this is a matter of style. Nemo would have sacrificed huge numbers of ships, aircraft and troops to get into the main Japanese cities and wipe out the economy. That probably would still have allowed a winning VP ratio and he might have done in in 1944!
But that's Nemo, he has an edge on figuring out what the opposition is likely to do because he is a Psychological or Psychiatric professional.

I understand CR's approach to things because my own comfort zone for risk is similar. I see no reason to suggest his overall strategy was faulty as he knew he had a very crafty opponent who is very experienced at getting the most out of the Japanese forces and economy. Obvert did score some victories along the way but CR stymied most of his gambits and won on the slow but steady path. Kudos to both sides for the way this has played out - instructive and entertaining all the way through! [&o]

[pontiouspilot]

Thanks for all the work that went into your AAR. I was quietly following both you and your very capable opponent. It was very interesting watching you wade into something someone else started. I'm sure your predecessor would be pleased.

[JohnDillworth]

I’m curious to see how the F-80s and sweeping Tokyo goes. Hope the game doesn’t end before that. It’s rare to get a game that goes this far so that particular data point is hard to come by.

[Bearcat2]

I check your AAR every day, Thanks!

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I’m curious to see how the F-80s and sweeping Tokyo goes. Hope the game doesn’t end before that. It’s rare to get a game that goes this far so that particular data point is hard to come by.

Albiet, my experience was against the inept AI, but I found P80s to be incomparable and unstoppable.

I found the KI-95 to be the toughest opponent, by far.
It outperformed all of the exotic Japanese jets and rocket planes.

P80s cleared everything from the skies.

They weren't invulnerable, and a few got shot down, but the ratio was typically 5-1 and often as high as 10-1.

[Canoerebel]

The P-80s have been sweeping regularly and perform as Hans says - usually very favorable ratios, dampened a bit by ops losses.

I have two groups - one in Korea nibbling around Osaka, which is just out of range, and one at Wakkanai that targets any enemy fighter concentrations located in northern Honshu. But now that Sapporo has fallen, Tokyo is in range. All P-80s will move to Sapporo tomorrow and then rest a day or two before their first big mission. I'll probably cherry pick the best P-51H squadrons and do the same thing.

By the way, there's something funky with the carrier fighter routine. It underperforms in the sweep role against big enemy LBA. If I send 50 P-51Hs against Kobe, the losses for both sides will be the same for 600 carrier F4U-1Ds or Bearcats or whatever. The combat doesn't last long and then the carrier fighters disengage. That's always happened, for the past year. So instead of DS being a monster, it's pretty weak.

What I may do is strip some of the fighter squadrons from the carriers and use them from land. The problem up to now has been airfield proximity. The range of the F4U-4 and the Bearcat are less than the -1D and 1A.

[Canoerebel]

2/1/46

Shooting Stars: The P-80s from Wakkanai swept Akita, where Erik had about 135 fighters posted. The P-80s did pretty well - 24:4 ratio, though ops losses dampened that a good bit. But that opening round (2:1) was atypically poor for the Shooting Stars. I think the pilot quality of these squadrons is a bit lower than for the squadrons based out of Korea.

Using the P-80s at range 11 (their max) may also dampen results due to ops losses.

Overall, these planes are impressive in the sweep role.

[Canoerebel]

The impact of the HRs in China may have been dramatic as those that applied to the air war. When I stepped in, March 1, 1944, the entire Chinese army was in Karachi. This was against the HR that Obvert had with my predecessors. So I moved the Chinese, en masse back into the Chinese Himalayas. That way the HR would be honored. But that meant the Chinese units couldn’t upgrade and didn’t have the supply needed to draw reinforcements. Deep into 1945, the Chinese army still mostly had 1941 squads. The units were weak and lacked supply. They faced the highly-experienced Japanese units who had conquered China. Those units were strong, supplied and dug in (Erik once noted that many of his units had as many as six forts - and that in 3x terrain!). And his HRs also prohibited the Allies from engaging in Strategic bombing in China. So there was no way to shut down supply production.

Taken together, those conditions meant that the only hope to liberate China was to commit the Western Allies and/or Russians – marching without benefit of rail all the way to Chungking and Chengtu to accomplish that goal. That was important, because there are so many high value, big denominator bases in China. Chungking and Chengtu are worth 5,400 points for Japan (the equivalent of 10,800 for the Allies – which is like conquering all of Kyushu and a goodly part of Honshu). Kunming, Tuyung, Lanchow, Hong Kong and also have big denominators, and I’m sure there were other bases too.

The need to conquer China, combined with the state of the air war in August/September 1945, made the choice pretty obvious, to me. The HR against night bombing of airfields and the severely limited Allied fighter and bomber pools made it risky to engage in any protracted air battle over the Home Islands, such as would take place with an all-out invasion. And Erik still had supply, deep pools, advanced frames, excellent pilots, flak, and a well-dug-in army. I'd already engaged in one risky, toughly contested battle in the Home Islands (Sikhalin Island). Erik earned a ton of permanent points that way, fighting efficiently at 1:1 ratios. I sure didn't want him to be able to do that again.

I agree with BBfanboy that a player like Nemo, and certainly some others I can think of, would have girded up their loins and attacked Japan proper. I’m confident Nemo would have prevailed. I think some others would have too. But many would’ve skewered themselves on a hardened target, having not properly known and considered the myriad factors that should have gone into making such a decision, and thereby giving Obvert (an excellent, experienced, aggressive player) a chance to strike hard and effectively.

[Canoerebel]

The victory conditions also entered into the equation. If the Allies don't prevail by 8/31/45, the best they can achieve is a marginal victory. And the conditions to achieve a marginal victory are the same whether 2:1 is achieved on 9/2/45 or 3/30/46. Since victory by 9/1/45 clearly wasn't possible, there was no need to take inadvisable chances thereafter. It meant just as much to achieve 2:1 in early 1946 as it did in late 1945.

There's no question that Erik and I are playing this as a game, as defined by the rules, as opposed to a simulation. The Allies invaded the Home Islands in June 1944. Since then, Erik has triggered exactly one kamikaze attack (near Shanghai in June, I think, 1945). He's played carefully and conservatively to maximize his points and minimize mine. He's playing exactly how I think the game should be played, and he's done a great job. And I'm doing the same - playing the game as a game.

If the game is measured by reality rather than as a game, the Allies had conquered more than they had historically by early August 1945. So by that measure, too, the Allies did well. But I don't think that's a valid measure.

All things considered, I think the game has been a draw, at least since I entered. Both sides fought hard and well, using carefully crafted strategies, and both making only a few mistakes (as best I can tell). The victory conditions will call this an marginal Allied victory, but those conditions were created many years ago and undoubtedly without a lot of hard info as to what the possibilities were. Draw accurately reflects the actual outcome, IMO.

[RangerJoe]

Well, by killing off all of those pixelated Japanese soldiers, the pixelated Allied occupation troops will have lots of pixelated Japanese young ladies around with not enough pixelated Japanese men to comfort them on the lonely nights . . .

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Well, by killing off all of those pixelated Japanese soldiers, the pixelated Allied occupation troops will have lots of pixelated Japanese young ladies around with not enough pixelated Japanese men to comfort them on the lonely nights . . .

And the pixelated Allied Governments did not want pixelated Allied soldiers bringing home oriental ladies or babies ....

[Canoerebel]

But this is Pixel Land. We are all entitled to as many Pixies as we can handle.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks for your thoughts, MindMessing.

There was a time when I had to make that call - invade Japan or concentrate on China. It's possible the former would have driven the Allies to a quicker victory, but I didn't think so. I didn't think so then or now.

The former would have. Take the total VP swing from China versus that of Japan. One will be bigger than the other.

Your memory about the input from the Peanut Gallery is pretty spotty. I remember you chiming in. I'm 99.9% sure that neither Alfred, Bullwinkle or Lokasenna commented in any way. They'd bowed out of the AAR or the community much, much earlier.

fb.asp?m=4550630

I took into consideration many factors that you aren't/weren't privy to. For instance, it is essential that the Allies conquer most of China - especially big denominator bases like Chengtu and Chungking. That's more than 5,000 denominator points right there. But given the house rules and the cards I was dealt, China couldn't be reconquered without a full commitment by the Russians and/or Western Allies. The House Rules had a material impact on that, and I doubt you have any notion of those rules or how they impacted the game.

Why was it essential to recapture China?

Every Japanese unit in China was one that was not defending Japan.

Outside of Chengtu, Chungking and Shanghai, base VP's are low compared to Japan proper. They're also much denser, and with terrain generally favourable to the Allies (lots of clear terrain, almost exclusively coastal hexes to allow naval bombardment from the Allied fleet) compared to China.

I'd also point out that the Allied naval arm can contribute extremely little to influence events in China, compared to Japan. Naval bombardment of coastal hexes could have easily helped contribute to the Allied VP pool.

And when that tough decision was made, the Allied aircraft pools were drained and without replacements. Starting a massive, no-holds-barred air battle over Japan when I had limited resources and Erik (apparently) didn't seemed fraught with too much risk. It was better to wait until the P-51H came online, finally permitting the Allies to contest the air space over the Home Islands.

In AE, landings are possible without contesting the air space over the Home Islands. The purpose in these events is not to control the air space, but to protect the amphibs.

There's also a point in there about the P-51 not being the only fighter in the Allied line-up...

There were many other factors that led me to believe the course of action I took was the best option. I might have been wrong. Another player might've done differently and did better than I did. But I'm satisfied with the decision and feel pretty sure that a lot of players would've stepped into it with both shoes had then attacked Erik when he was still fully supplied and had the upper hand in the air war.

It's hard to think clinically about your own game when you are immersed in it. I will be interested to see if your view changes with time.

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks for your thoughts, MindMessing.

There was a time when I had to make that call - invade Japan or concentrate on China. It's possible the former would have driven the Allies to a quicker victory, but I didn't think so. I didn't think so then or now.

Your memory about the input from the Peanut Gallery is pretty spotty. I remember you chiming in. I'm 99.9% sure that neither Alfred, Bullwinkle or Lokasenna commented in any way. They'd bowed out of the AAR or the community much, much earlier.

I took into consideration many factors that you aren't/weren't privy to. For instance, it is essential that the Allies conquer most of China - especially big denominator bases like Chengtu and Chungking. That's more than 5,000 denominator points right there. But given the house rules and the cards I was dealt, China couldn't be reconquered without a full commitment by the Russians and/or Western Allies. The House Rules had a material impact on that, and I doubt you have any notion of those rules or how they impacted the game.

And when that tough decision was made, the Allied aircraft pools were drained and without replacements. Starting a massive, no-holds-barred air battle over Japan when I had limited resources and Erik (apparently) didn't seemed fraught with too much risk. It was better to wait until the P-51H came online, finally permitting the Allies to contest the air space over the Home Islands.

There were many other factors that led me to believe the course of action I took was the best option. I might have been wrong. Another player might've done differently and did better than I did. But I'm satisfied with the decision and feel pretty sure that a lot of players would've stepped into it with both shoes had then attacked Erik when he was still fully supplied and had the upper hand in the air war.

Much of this is a matter of style. Nemo would have sacrificed huge numbers of ships, aircraft and troops to get into the main Japanese cities and wipe out the economy. That probably would still have allowed a winning VP ratio and he might have done in in 1944!
But that's Nemo, he has an edge on figuring out what the opposition is likely to do because he is a Psychological or Psychiatric professional.

I understand CR's approach to things because my own comfort zone for risk is similar. I see no reason to suggest his overall strategy was faulty as he knew he had a very crafty opponent who is very experienced at getting the most out of the Japanese forces and economy. Obvert did score some victories along the way but CR stymied most of his gambits and won on the slow but steady path. Kudos to both sides for the way this has played out - instructive and entertaining all the way through! [&o]

Ah, the old "Nemo is a mind reader" myth. Almost as if he was deliberate in cultivating that myth for some reason...? [;)]

The overall strategy was faulty as it was not the most effective way to deliver what was needed for victory.

What was needed was large VP swings to the Allies, delivered at speed, using every asset to the greatest benefit.

What was done was a campaign in China that the navy couldn't contribute to, and that allowed a good trade for Japan.

Deep into 1945, the Chinese army still mostly had 1941 squads. The units were weak and lacked supply. They faced the highly-experienced Japanese units who had conquered China. Those units were strong, supplied and dug in (Erik once noted that many of his units had as many as six forts - and that in 3x terrain!).

Strong units that are well dug in...let's go fight them instead of going somewhere with weaker opposition! [&:]

Chungking and Chengtu are worth 5,400 points for Japan (the equivalent of 10,800 for the Allies – which is like conquering all of Kyushu and a goodly part of Honshu). Kunming, Tuyung, Lanchow, Hong Kong and also have big denominators, and I’m sure there were other bases too.

What's the comparative time to travel between Chungking/Chengtu and Hong Kong?

What's that versus a boat from Wakkanai to Kanoya?

I'd already engaged in one risky, toughly contested battle in the Home Islands (Sikhalin Island). Erik earned a ton of permanent points that way, fighting efficiently at 1:1 ratios. I sure didn't want him to be able to do that again.

Imagine if you'd made that exchange for a base where you could have mounted an extended land campaign against weak IJ ground opposition to take high value VP bases...like Hokkaido?

The victory conditions also entered into the equation. If the Allies don't prevail by 8/31/45, the best they can achieve is a marginal victory. And the conditions to achieve a marginal victory are the same whether 2:1 is achieved on 9/2/45 or 3/30/46. Since victory by 9/1/45 clearly wasn't possible, there was no need to take inadvisable chances thereafter. It meant just as much to achieve 2:1 in early 1946 as it did in late 1945.

There's no question that Erik and I are playing this as a game, as defined by the rules, as opposed to a simulation. The Allies invaded the Home Islands in June 1944. Since then, Erik has triggered exactly one kamikaze attack (near Shanghai in June, I think, 1945). He's played carefully and conservatively to maximize his points and minimize mine. He's playing exactly how I think the game should be played, and he's done a great job. And I'm doing the same - playing the game as a game.

If the game is measured by reality rather than as a game, the Allies had conquered more than they had historically by early August 1945. So by that measure, too, the Allies did well. But I don't think that's a valid measure.

All things considered, I think the game has been a draw, at least since I entered. Both sides fought hard and well, using carefully crafted strategies, and both making only a few mistakes (as best I can tell). The victory conditions will call this an marginal Allied victory, but those conditions were created many years ago and undoubtedly without a lot of hard info as to what the possibilities were. Draw accurately reflects the actual outcome, IMO.

Obvert's strategy of conservative play was the right counter - a more aggressive pursuit of VP's from the Allies would have forced Obvert to start rolling the dice in the big Gotterdammerung battles that the late-game throws up to maintain the IJ VP lead.