Incoming!

[AW1Steve]

ORIGINAL: mdiehl

Mdiehl, why are you so eager to fight and argue everytime when there is issue about japanese hit percentages/ship quality/TORPEDOES/zero... Why? what enrages you that much about japanese equipment?

I'm not particularly eager to fight about anything, but I'll stand by any claim that is best supported by facts, and I don't back down just because someone feels that the facts are not as they should be.

Is there a problem here? The modal and median hit rates of Type 93As was 0% (per battle), and the mean hit rate around 6%. My position is that these measures of central tendency reflect the realities of the range of historically possible usages of the weapon, and therefore any good consim will produce a similar distribution. If we agree, then there's nothing to argue about. If someone disagrees, they have the choice of demonstrating that the numbers derived by Czernecki are inaccurate and that some other set of numbers is more accurate, or else they have to claim that the stats don't matter. If the stats don't matter, then all one is left with is competing subjective claims.

Debating facts is what we are supposed to be doing here. And as long as no one calls each other names the debate can go on forever (and should! ) [:D]

[mdiehl]

Easy Steve. I don't feel that CVZuikaku is taking sides. I think he just doesn't understand my position.

For ex:

But even fan of statistics shoul'd know that if they were so crappy and had 0% hit rates, and that their crappy ships blew and suffered from spontanious self combustion- the US woul'd won the war by mid '42 at the worst scenario...

You sound like you're angry at me because the Japanese modal and (edit) median hit rates were 0%. I can't understand why you'd be upset with me over a matter of historical fact.

You don't need to postulate spontaneous self combustion for Allied ships. It's already a well known fact that in several engagements the Japanese had very good success with their torpedoes. Nobody denies that success.

In my view, a talented historian will look at the Japanese typical results (mode 0%, median 0%, mean 6.5ish %) and then look at their really remarkable successes (Tassafaronga, Savo Island) and ask how the circumstances of the exceptionally good cases differed from the more normative cases. As Herwin noted above, "surprise" was a big factor. If the Allied flotilla commander (usu an Admiral) thought that he had not been detected by the Japanese and the range was relatively short, the Japanese tended to do very well.

I'd add that a USN DD flotilla commander wouldn't have made the same mistake as Adm. Wright made at Tassafaronga. Not even in 1942.

And aren't we at some level here just replicating the kind of historical discussion that DD skippers and flotilla leaders like Burke had with higher ranking cruiser based flotilla leaders? In 1942 USN DDs were slaves to the gun line if there was a CA or bigger gun line present. In 1943 they were turned loose.

[CV Zuikaku]

ORIGINAL: mdiehl

Mdiehl, why are you so eager to fight and argue everytime when there is issue about japanese hit percentages/ship quality/TORPEDOES/zero... Why? what enrages you that much about japanese equipment?

I'm not particularly eager to fight about anything, but I'll stand by any claim that is best supported by facts, and I don't back down just because someone feels that the facts are not as they should be.

Is there a problem here? The modal and median hit rates of Type 93As was 0% (per battle), and the mean hit rate around 6%. My position is that these measures of central tendency reflect the realities of the range of historically possible usages of the weapon, and therefore any good consim will produce a similar distribution. If we agree, then there's nothing to argue about. If someone disagrees, they have the choice of demonstrating that the numbers derived by Czernecki are inaccurate and that some other set of numbers is more accurate, or else they have to claim that the stats don't matter. If the stats don't matter, then all one is left with is competing subjective claims.

So, basically, it woul'd be historically accurate if japanese warships in WITP/AE were unable to score a single hit with Type93 ?! I don't know, but I read that there were hits. It doesn't matter if americans were surprised or unaware or in confusion. Heck, KB was in total confusion at Midway, and using that analogy we coul'd say that all those bomb hits by SBDs does not count cause japanese were confused and surprised- and that means that SBD is overrated crappy plane (which it is not).

[CV Zuikaku]

ORIGINAL: mdiehl

Easy Steve. I don't feel that CVZuikaku is taking sides. I think he just doesn't understand my position.

For ex:

But even fan of statistics shoul'd know that if they were so crappy and had 0% hit rates, and that their crappy ships blew and suffered from spontanious self combustion- the US woul'd won the war by mid '42 at the worst scenario...

You sound like you're angry at me because the Japanese modal and mean hit rates were 0%. I can't understand why you'd be upset with me over a matter of historical fact.

You don't need to postulate spontaneous self combustion for Allied ships. It's already a well known fact that in several engagements the Japanese had very good success with their torpedoes. Nobody denies that success.

In my view, a talented historian will look at the Japanese typical results (mode 0%, median 0%, mean 6.5ish %) and then look at their really remarkable successes (Tassafaronga, Savo Island) and ask how the circumstances of the exceptionally good cases differed from the more normative cases. As Herwin noted above, "surprise" was a big factor. If the Allied flotilla commander (usu an Admiral) thought that he had not been detected by the Japanese and the range was relatively short, the Japanese tended to do very well.

I'd add that a USN DD flotilla commander wouldn't have made the same mistake as Adm. Wright made at Tassafaronga. Not even in 1942.

OK, think that now I understand what you are trying to say [:)]

[mdiehl]

So, basically, it woul'd be historically accurate if japanese warships in WITP/AE were unable to score a single hit with Type93 ?! I don't know, but I read that there were hits.

I think you really need to consider what is meant by mean, median and mode. There's no escaping the historical distribution. A strong central tendency towards 0% hit rate is not the same thing as "unable to score a single hit." What it means is that if you were a betting man and could travel back in time, if you put money on the outcome of a battle, you bet that NO ONE would get a hit in a torpedo engagement between surface ships in 1942. Most of the time your bet would pay off. And a couple of times your bet would lose badly.

It doesn't matter if americans were surprised or unaware or in confusion.

Actually, it matters ALOT. If you look at Japan's two greatest victories you see that surprise and confusion were the dominating characteristics of the USN battle condition at Savo Island. Part of that came from a lousy command structure, some of it from fatigue, some of it from lousy communications. Ultimately though, the USN ships didn't know they were in combat until well after the Japanese torpedoes had been launched.

Savo Island bears a strong resemblence (in re confusion, command and control, and torpedo usage) to the USN victory at Balikpapan in January 1942.

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve





Oh thank you! Not only do you throw fuel on the fire , you take sides! Why don't you help try and cool this debate off? That would be the RESPONSIBLE thing to do![:(]

Steve, please tell me that you don´t find Zuikaku´s post insulting or a try to piss Mr. M off. Either I don´t know English at all (perhaps I should start discussing in German but I guess Mr. M would find speaking German crappy - sorry, can´t resist [;)]) or why isn´t this a permitted question as it definetely begs some truth in it? [&:]

I find it very much so. But I still feel that there is no reason why educated adults need to resort to name calling and getting personal. Your English is Outstanding! There are several native English speakers on the forum that I seldom understand, but your English is impeccable. (It makes me ashamed that I speak no German, Spanish,Croatian or any of the other languages of some of our forum brothers).

I know that you and Mdiel don't get along. That's fine , some people just rub each other the wrong way. But personal attacks will get you both banned. And the moderators have been concerntrating on AE, so a lot of poor behavior has gone unpunished. But AE is done, they are just waiting for the printer to do his job. So the policemen are back. Please mind the insults. Because they will be. And both you and Mdiel are assets to the forum. So play nice , or ignore each other. Please. I for one , don't want to see either of you banned. [:(]

Well, until an hour ago I have never had a problem with him in over 5 years of my forum membership. It´s like I´ve stated before, I felt symphaty for him for staying behind what he says when 80% of the people here disagree. And most of those people can´t be called uninformed when it comes down to WWII aircraft, ships, tanks, etc. He always was kind of a Don Quichote fighting windmills and that got my respect. I started to have a serious problem with him after being called a troll, just because HE did an absolutely stupid post - POST NO 2 in this thread - and I responded to that post as his statement definetely implied that everyone that doesn´t agree with him is either stupid, a revisionist, has no idea of statistics, etc.

I did have a problem with only one guy on this forum and I guess he´s well aware of that. I´m not the only one anyway who has problems with him but that doesn´t matter now anyway. And what I also know is the fact that there are people that have also problems with Mr M. Well, now there seem to be two people here I do have a problem with and I am absolutely aware of the fact that jwilkerson or one of the other mods won´t like my posts at all. [:-] And I am aware that insulting is a reason to get banned and that´s just how it should be. But honestly, there´s a point when I just risk to be banned (would be the first time in 5 years anyway - MY first time, not the first time of the guys I don´t come along with). It´s childish behaviour that I react on being called a Troll, but hey, perhaps I just have a bad day. Call someone a troll and don´t get a response, call another person a troll, an idiot a whatever. If you never get a punch on your nose, you will never learn, at least not a person like him it seems.

You don´t have to speak another language, you´re an English native speaker and that enables you to come along quite good all around the world. [;)] As soon as I cross the border I have to either use Italian (which I´m not that good in at all anymore) or English. I go with English and am even speaking English with my Dutch relatives even though I am usually good enough to explain myself in Dutch too. English is the way to go.

[CV Zuikaku]

ORIGINAL: mdiehl

It doesn't matter if americans were surprised or unaware or in confusion.

Actually, it matters ALOT. If you look at Japan's two greatest victories you see that surprise and confusion were the dominating characteristics of the USN battle condition at Savo Island. Part of that came from a lousy command structure, some of it from fatigue, some of it from lousy communications. Ultimately though, the USN ships didn't know they were in combat until well after the Japanese torpedoes had been launched.

Savo Island bears a strong resemblence (in re confusion, command and control, and torpedo usage) to the USN victory at Balikpapan in January 1942.

what I ment to say is that it doesn't matter in the final statistic- confusion or not! All after all, war is the ultimate confusion... And the side that lose the battle usually lose it due to higher level of confusion/surprise than opposing side...

[AW1Steve]

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

ORIGINAL: castor troy





Steve, please tell me that you don´t find Zuikaku´s post insulting or a try to piss Mr. M off. Either I don´t know English at all (perhaps I should start discussing in German but I guess Mr. M would find speaking German crappy - sorry, can´t resist [;)]) or why isn´t this a permitted question as it definetely begs some truth in it? [&:]

I find it very much so. But I still feel that there is no reason why educated adults need to resort to name calling and getting personal. Your English is Outstanding! There are several native English speakers on the forum that I seldom understand, but your English is impeccable. (It makes me ashamed that I speak no German, Spanish,Croatian or any of the other languages of some of our forum brothers).

I know that you and Mdiel don't get along. That's fine , some people just rub each other the wrong way. But personal attacks will get you both banned. And the moderators have been concerntrating on AE, so a lot of poor behavior has gone unpunished. But AE is done, they are just waiting for the printer to do his job. So the policemen are back. Please mind the insults. Because they will be. And both you and Mdiel are assets to the forum. So play nice , or ignore each other. Please. I for one , don't want to see either of you banned. [:(]

Well, until an hour ago I have never had a problem with him in over 5 years of my forum membership. It´s like I´ve stated before, I felt symphaty for him for staying behind what he says when 80% of the people here disagree. And most of those people can´t be called uninformed when it comes down to WWII aircraft, ships, tanks, etc. He always was kind of a Don Quichote fighting windmills and that got my respect. I started to have a serious problem with him after being called a troll, just because HE did an absolutely stupid post - POST NO 2 in this thread - and I responded to that post as his statement definetely implied that everyone that doesn´t agree with him is either stupid, a revisionist, has no idea of statistics, etc.

I did have a problem with only one guy on this forum and I guess he´s well aware of that. I´m not the only one anyway who has problems with him but that doesn´t matter now anyway. And what I also know is the fact that there are people that have also problems with Mr M. Well, now there seem to be two people here I do have a problem with and I am absolutely aware of the fact that jwilkerson or one of the other mods won´t like my posts at all. [:-] And I am aware that insulting is a reason to get banned and that´s just how it should be. But honestly, there´s a point when I just risk to be banned (would be the first time in 5 years anyway - MY first time, not the first time of the guys I don´t come along with). It´s childish behaviour that I react on being called a Troll, but hey, perhaps I just have a bad day. Call someone a troll and don´t get a response, call another person a troll, an idiot a whatever. If you never get a punch on your nose, you will never learn, at least not a person like him it seems.

You don´t have to speak another language, you´re an English native speaker and that enables you to come along quite good all around the world. [;)] As soon as I cross the border I have to either use Italian (which I´m not that good in at all anymore) or English. I go with English and am even speaking English with my Dutch relatives even though I am usually good enough to explain myself in Dutch too. English is the way to go.

Maybe. But I've always felt the best way to understand another culture is to live it if possible. Eat the food, drink the drink and most important, speak some of the langauge. Only then can you begin to understand the people. But my talent doesn't include languages, and although I keep trying other languages, they just don't take.

I certainly understand your offense at being called a troll. I would be too. I don't think Mdiel would normally use that word, but I think passion and tempers got to everyone, and as a result words flew that probably shouldn't.

What I'm really hopeing is we can get by that little spat. You both are extremely intelligent and I'd say learned gentlemen. And you are both assets to the forum. It's upsetting for use "newbies" to see two masters slag away at each other (it's kind of like being a kid , watching adults argue). Because I really don't think there are that many differences between you both, just degree's of seperation. And as long as tempers are under control, and provocative words are avoided, I see no reason why you two shouldn't get on well.

So how about this? Let's forget the former unpleasantness, and start fresh? Everybody gets angry and has a bad day. Let's just call this one. I won't ask you two to shake hands and make friends. But I will ask you both to try and forget what was said earlier. Life's too short to fight, and the forum is no place to do it.

Frankly , I'd really love to hear you both do a quiet, non-passionate debate on the subject, I think I'd learn a lot. But please guys, easy on the math! I'm a history major! No speaky calculus! [:D]

[mdiehl]

And the side that lose the battle usually lose it due to higher level of confusion/surprise than opposing side...

Mostly I agree. Look at the Battle of Balikpapan (IIRC 17 January 1942) for example. Crappy US torpedoes. Substantial confusion among the Japanese. The results were a substantial USN victory. Too bad those USN DDs didn't have something like a Type 93 Long Lance torpedo, because then you'd have seen some real rocking and rolling.

[CV Zuikaku]

ORIGINAL: mdiehl

And the side that lose the battle usually lose it due to higher level of confusion/surprise than opposing side...

Mostly I agree. Look at the Battle of Balikpapan (IIRC 17 January 1942) for example. Crappy US torpedoes. Substantial confusion among the Japanese. The results were a substantial USN victory. Too bad those USN DDs didn't have something like a Type 93 Long Lance torpedo, because then you'd have seen some real rocking and rolling.

I tried to find in my memory one WW2 naval engagement in which both sides were perfectly calm and not in confusion, but I failed to do that. confusion is everywhere when the battle starts [;)]
It's true, USN cruisers, destroyers and subs were badly crippled by not having reliable torpedoes in '42...

[Barb]

Uh Oh! Another "can of worms"? Who wants to go out fishin' ? [:D]

[mdiehl]

I tried to find in my memory one WW2 naval engagement in which both sides were perfectly calm and not in confusion, but I failed to do that. confusion is everywhere when the battle starts

I think the phrase you're looking for describes a meeting engagement where both sides are alert at the start of the battle. The two November battles at Guadalcanal fit the book in my view. Tactically, the Japanese got the better of the USN in the first battle, and tactically the USN won the 2nd battle.

Admiral Wright *should* have won (or at least done better ) at Tassafaronga. I can only attribute his defeat there to being a blockhead. He seemed to think that he hadn't been detected by the Japanese, even though he'd tracked them by radar and visually for several minutes, and he refused to let his DD skippers use their torpedoes when they had a rather optimal target solution.

I have no idea how one would model a blockheaded admiral in a consim. If you modeled the fellow as a blockhead, what player would let him command a combat flotilla?

[AW1Steve]

ORIGINAL: Barb

Uh Oh! Another "can of worms"? Who wants to go out fishin' ? [:D]

Your late to the party! Where ya been? [:D]

[Barb]

Cookin' lot of hellish good lasagna [8D]

[whippleofd]

Sunk! Sunk I tell ya!

NOT SCUTTLED!

Same argument. Different noun.

Whipple

[CV Zuikaku]

ORIGINAL: mdiehl

I tried to find in my memory one WW2 naval engagement in which both sides were perfectly calm and not in confusion, but I failed to do that. confusion is everywhere when the battle starts

I think the phrase you're looking for describes a meeting engagement where both sides are alert at the start of the battle. The two November battles at Guadalcanal fit the book in my view. Tactically, the Japanese got the better of the USN in the first battle, and tactically the USN won the 2nd battle.

Again, I can not agree with you [;)] In both November 13th and 14th both sides were alerted, but were also in great confusion. let me see... Hiei entered into the battle expecting to bomb the hell out of Henderson field... but instead she found herself with decks full of prepared HE rounds in naval engagement... and US task force was so confused in resulting melee that any coordination was impossible -resulting in friendly fire. the second battle was less confusing, but was also not as planned- neither for USN or IJN...

[mdiehl]

I was talking about initial conditions. The decay of good order is otherwise pretty much expected in combat I think, unless command and control are exceptionally good. In the Pacific lull after December 1942, the USN spent ALOT of time studying their mistakes, and perhaps more important than material improvements were the improvements in command and control.

We seem mostly to agree on this. Whatever we seem to disagree on at this point seems relatively minor and rather subtle.

[niceguy2005]

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

At least it's an old grenade.

This is a WWII forum....they're all old grenades. [:'(]

[AW1Steve]

ORIGINAL: niceguy2005

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

At least it's an old grenade.

This is a WWII forum....they're all old grenades. [:'(]

Ask any EOD guy. Old grenades (or any old explosive) is ALWAYS more dangerous than a new one! [:D]

[Charles2222]

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

ORIGINAL: CV Zuikaku

Mdiehl, why are you so eager to fight and argue everytime when there is issue about japanese hit percentages/ship quality/TORPEDOES/zero... Why? what enrages you that much about japanese equipment? [;)] [&:] [:(]

Oh thank you! Not only do you throw fuel on the fire , you take sides! Why don't you help try and cool this debate off? That would be the RESPONSIBLE thing to do![:(]

While CV Zuikaku may often take sides, I do not know, but in that one case he was simply asking a question. I know it's impossible to believe somebody with an IJ type logonid might not be an JFB, but an FB of any sort couldn't have asked that question and had it less loaded; believe me. Mdiehl is simply that way, and he would like to know why.