Solo Historical Axis Warplans AAR

[gwgardner]

Aug 9 '41

Minsk has fallen to AGC, but Kiev is for the time being out of reach. The problem all along the front is freeing the infantry up from cleaning up the pockets of Soviet troops, and getting them to the front. The armor is everywhere stalled waiting for support.

Air recon shows substantial Soviet forces that cannot be simply pushed aside by the armor. Even though the Soviets have been hit with lowered effeciency at the beginning of Barbarossa, all those many 0-3 units don't simply vanish with one hit. It takes multiple attacks to destroy them.

Moscow and Leningrad both seem very far away, and Stalingrad might as well be on a different planet. The historical OOB still does not allow the Germans any substantial reinforcements.

The Soviet AI has done very well in setting up defensive positions, and in aggressively cutting off my lead elements. I've had to make fighting withdrawals more than once.

Units circled in green are the strategic reserve, which is going to be unavailable for the most part until '42.

The Soviet position in the Karelian Penninsula is a problem - really a drag on the advance of AGN.

[gwgardner]

Aug 16

AGN problem: bypass/screen the strong enemy forces in the Karelian Penninsula, or attack them headon, thus delaying the advance. Screening alone will require 1/3 of AGNs available infantry. Recon shows clear sailing into Estonia, but with a good portion of AGN held back for screening, that could be only a temporary gain.

Had to use one of AGNs armored corps to help destroy the pocket around Kaunus, in order to more quickly free up the infantry.

[gwgardner]

Oct 9, '41

It appears that the Soviets have recovered from the early shock, and are no longer suffering an effectiveness loss. Notwithstanding the expectation of that recovery, I have been very bold against the Soviet AI, not expecting it to do the right thing.

Big mistake.

This last turn, from AGC south to Odessa, the Soviets have counterattacked and taken advantage of the VERY stretched German lines.

Smolensk fell rather easily, by early Sept. Guderian's armor then continued to advance headlong towards Moscow, deliberately leaving a southern flank unguarded - there's nothing to guard it with. I expected the AI wouldn't be smart enough to take advantage.

Whether or not it was smarts or luck, the AI moved its own heavy armor into position at Bryansk, and struck north against the AGC southern flank. There is no infantry support, so I'm not majorly alarmed, but the Soviets have plenty of infantry on the northern flank, so I see no option but to order Guderian to halt and take care of that Soviet armor.

[gwgardner]

So where is AGCs infantry?

Strung out along the northern edge of the Pripets, and attempting to reduce Brest. The fortress there is holding strong, and last week broke the siege.

Gomel is well-guarded by the Soviets, and the counterattack there is going to force a German pullback.

[gwgardner]

The prime objective of AGS still holds out. The map below doesn't show it, but there are numerous Soviet units behind and south of Kiev. I hate to use my armor in a slugfest against prepared positions, so I may bring up heavy infantry and pull the armor farther south where the situation is desperate.

[gwgardner]

Desperate?

Indeed. The area of responsibility of the Hungarian and Italian forces, along with the few German infantry units, is in near collapse against a vicious Soviet counterattack. And this is only Oct.! The Soviets are relentless in taking advantage of my stretched lines, and in rushing to encircle any of my exposed units.

There is no prospect of serioius reinforcements before early '42, so I have no choice but to pull back north of Odessa and stabalize this front.

[gwgardner]

AGNs situation is not desperate, but it is apparent that the Soviets are gaining strength around Pskov. AGN too is lacking enough infantry available on the leading edge of the front.

Pskov is going to fall this turn, and the Soviet pockets in the Karelian Penninsula and around Rezekne should be destroyed soon, so AGN looks in fairly good shape in the long run.

[gwgardner]

Oct 24

Another unpleasant surprise from the Soviet AI:

Expecting the AI in the Karelian Penninsula to collapse, since I had cut it off from the rest of the Soviet Union, I pulled out all corps and armor, and sent in 5 infantry divisions. One to hold the lone 4-3 Soviet infantry from heading south, 4 to invest Ventspils and take it by siege.

The Soviets however are getting FULL supply from Ventspils, apparently by sea. My bad, I didn't suspect that the AI would do that, so didn't contest the Baltic.

The AI also shipped in or produced some scary armor, which has already taken out one of my divisions, and is threatening a second.

Seems like cpdeyoung was right in saying that 1.7 Soviet AI is a totally different beast than that in earlier versions.

So I've walked right into a perfect storm: restricted German OOB (historical), +25% Soviet PPs, and 1.7. (I won't mention my own incompetence factor.)

It's getting very exciting on the Eastern Front.

[cpdeyoung]

I am deep into Barbarossa, a year and a half or so, and the Soviets show no sign of giving in.  I am "winning", and they are in deep trouble, but they fight for every inch.  Last time I looked they were at 232% PP production.  I think I would be crushed if I had given them a 125% modifer. They have two strategic bombers, and lots of other air (20 Fgt and 15 Tac), but not at the expense of ground units which are in plentiful supply.

I do question their naval production, as they currently have 31 subs, 24 patrol groups, and 4 battle groups, but if things were different this would have been a good move too.  I do not dare venture into the Baltic.

You are in for a titantic struggle!

Chuck

PS : Yes, they are aggressive and gang up on any exposed units, and they hate, hate the Axis minors!

[Texashorns]

According to the photo showing the investment of Brest, the reason it is "hanging" on so long is because it is not entirely surrounded. In order to get it to surrender you must have it completely surrounded.

[cpdeyoung]

Gary mentioned that the siege was "broken" last week.  I can testify that Mr. Gardner can besiege with the best of them!  Brest surprised the Germans in the actual war too.
 
Chuck

[gwgardner]

Yes, the Brest garrison struck back. I have reinvested the fortress there. In real life, by the way, isolated Russian troops held out at Brest for months. I even read that one lone remnant of the garrison did not give up till 11 months after Barbarossa.

It is now Nov 1, winter closing in, snows coming. I can feel it.

This screenshot shows my closest approach to Moscow and Leningrad. The circles represent Soviet forces known to be in position there (didn't have enough recon to show them). The long green line is where I THINK I can hold for the winter, and perhaps even continue to push. The big question mark? That's a huge expanse where I got NOTHING! Fortunately that flanks the Pripets, so I don't think the Russkies can push through there. They might push north from Bryansk, however, and I don't yet have enough there either.

This is my first game against the Russian AI that I didn't take both Leningrad and Moscow in '41.

By the way, the last turn was disastrous, with the AI destroying 3 or 4 of my divisions through relentless low-odds counterattacks. Bad habits I got into in previous games - trying to hold with relatively weak infantry - are killing me.

The AI has almost closed the noose around my forward forces, thus my pullback to secure Kaluga at least.

[gwgardner]

Now you believe me when I say I have nothing on the southern flank of AGC? I have tried to stick with the historical OOB, but I have lost so many infantry divisions that I'm simply going to have to build some more, or else the entire Eastern Front will collapse. So for every division Ive lost, I'm going to build a new one and send it East, to try to maintain the historical OOB in general. Still no new armor until '42.

[gwgardner]

found this website on German strength by division by front

http://www.axishistory.com/index.php?id=7288

In my game, the Germans have 164 (counting three per corps) divisions on the Eastern Front in Nov 41, so I'm actually over the historical number by 15 or so. Looks like around May/June 42 I can boost the number of divisions to around 180.

Of course the above are incredibly rough, because the actual numbers of troops per division was generally reduced through the war.

[gwgardner]

A week later.

Never thought I'd have to say this about an AI, but the Soviet AI has well and thoroughly creamed me. AGCs thrust towards Moscow, in hindsight, was completely reckless. The AI has now cut off all of AGCs forward units around Kaluga. AGC is attempting to withdraw, but hasn't the strength to break out of the enclosed pocket. Three armored corps, 3 or 4 infantry corps, Guderian's HQ. All just about lost.

In my shock I forgot to make a screenshot, but will next turn.

To compound my embarrassment, of the 5 infantry divisions that I sent into the Karelian Penninsula to hold off the Soviet forces there, three are now destroyed. So AGN has now done the unimaginable - ordered its two armored corps back to Riga.

What a disaster.

[cpdeyoung]

I do not doubt it for a moment. I well remember filling holes in my lines and pulling exposed units back when the Soviets started sifting through. There have been comments questioning my view that the AI has improved, but it certainly seems to have improved. Perhaps the AI just needs enough units to function properly.

The AI also seems to recognize a unit without retreat room, and target them by preference. I have learned to never allow that situation to happen but sometimes in multi unit battles it does, and it is punished.

With the restrictions you have imposed upon yourself you are indeed in for a fight.

Chuck