This is a rules question. I'm playing through the Guadalcanal starter scenario and trying to learn the game and rules as I go along. I'm learning the rules both by trying to understand what the game (i.e., MWiF) does and by referencing the applicable rules in the, "The Rules as Coded" volume. Now let me set up the situation and my interpretation of the applicable rules. Please correct me where I'm wrong.
The Japanese are invading Midway with a 5-3 and 3-3 militia unit from Sea Box 1 without any air or naval support. Because this is a naval invasion the 2 units are half to a total of 4. The US includes the notional unit (why wouldn't they?) for 1. Since both units are invading from Sea Box 1, the US adds in an additional 2 + 2 (or 4 total).
From what I can deduce from the game (MWIF) and the RAC is that
for each invading unit +2 is added to the defense if that unit invades from Sea Box 1 or 2 and +1 if it invades from Sea Box 3. Is that correct? What about if it invades from Sea Box 4? The closest explanation for this rule that I found in the RAC was in the example given on page 73.
So back to the invasion and my example. The US has a task force with the Saratago on patrol in the Hawaiian islands. It flies it carrier air as a bomber which adds 2.5 more factors to the defense. So, the number of defense factors are: 1 (notional) + 2 (unit invading from box 1) + 2 (a second unit invading from box 1) + 2.5 (Saratago air wing) = 7.5, which rounds to 8. So the odds are 4:8 (or 1:2), with +1 die roll modified because a notional unit is always disrupted. Correct?
The allied player is given the choice of which CRT to use (Blitzkrieg or Assault). From what I can tell the best choice for the allies is the 1D10 Blitzkrieg Table. This gives the Japanese only a 30% chance (9, 10 or 11) of capturing Midway. Even though a result of 5-8 would outright destroy only 1 of the 2 invading units, since the notional unit isn't destroyed then the "surviving" invading unit would be?
And by my understanding choosing the 1D10 Assault CRT would given the Japanese a 40% chance (8-11) of successfully capturing Midway. Correct?
By the way, the Japanese rolled an 8 (+1) = 9 on the Blitzkrieg table, which resulted in them taking Midway and both units surviving. Though, I doubt their transports will in the allied impulse to come.
