Banzais Don't Make Victories - Anachro (A) vs John 3rd (J) BTS 5.7

[Lecivius]

Banzai!!

Err....

Hip Hip, Hooray!

I bet that bent his sword a bit [;)]

[dave sindel]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

Banzai!!

Err....

Hip Hip, Hooray!

I bet that bent his sword a bit [;)]

Perhaps even shattered it...

[Anachro]

Dec 15. 1941

Another day, some bad, some good. First, CA Pensacola manages to intercept another transport convoy I didn't even know was there, drowning more enemy troops off Munda. A Dutch sub also manages to sink a transport off of Palembang. However, along with this, CLs Dragon and Durban are caught in the open Durban goes down (sad because in the bugged replay she was alive and well). Hopefully, Dragon can survive tomorrow. KB north of PH also manages to sink an AVD and DMS. On Malaya, my troops fail to shock Malacca and its looking increasingly likely they will be cut off in the north.

Day Time Surface Combat, near Munda at 109,136, Range 18,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
xAK Hohuku Maru, Shell hits 16, and is sunk
xAK Hukko Maru, Shell hits 7, and is sunk
xAK Sangetsu Maru, Shell hits 15, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CA Pensacola, Shell hits 1
DD Sands
DD Bundaberg
DD Tamworth

Japanese ground losses:
1227 casualties reported
Squads: 24 destroyed, 49 disabled
Non Combat: 20 destroyed, 31 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 6 (6 destroyed, 0 disabled)

The interesting thing tomorrow is potentially for another surface clash at Rabaul, as intelligence picks up signals he is sending another fast transport convoy to Rabaul to try and finish off the garrison there. If I can turn away his ships and hold on for a little while longer, I can reinforce Rabaul and hopefully buy time through that to reinforce Noumea, Luganville, etc. Elsewhere, with KB3 retiring to refuel, I am sending British CAs and DDs to hit him in Palembang - which I don't think he expects at all.

[Lecivius]

His aggressiveness is hurting him. I am really liking your game [;)]

[FlyByKnight]

It seems we know why John 3rd hasn't been updating his AAR. Keep it up and his advantage will be diminished.

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: Hornfischer's The Fleet at Flood Tide
When Spruance was teaching at the Naval War College, the prescribed method of analysis required commanders to forecast "the enemy, his strength, dispositions, and probable intentions." The rubric seemed reasonable enough, except, as Spruance later realized, estimating probable intent entailed making dangerous assumptions. The safer and more prudent course, he would decide, was to plan within the possible range of the enemy's capabilities, which were more knowable, and not his intentions, ever mysterious.

@Lecivius and CharlieVane I think many of us on these forums, myself included, too often make the mistake of acting on perceived intentions, per the quote above. Many JFB's certainly do with their early expansion, but they are usually correct in guessing the intentions of most Allied players. Well aware of the IJN's capabilities early on thanks to hindsight, many Allied players act prudently and conservatively with their forces. Thus, it usually isn't a problem.

However, the allied capabilities, especially in this mod, make an early push back in the South Pacific possible given the starting dispositions of both KB and Allied forces. KB2 and KB3 start poised towards Malaya and DEI, so only main KB needs to be guessed; and the Allies start with 2 carriers far south of PH, 2 BCs south of Palmyra, and various other CA/CL/DDs close to Australia. Thus if an Allied player makes use of those capabilities against an aggressive opponent counting on early Allied passiveness, he will be able to inflict some pain on his opponent.

Maybe this was nygiant's intentions with the starting dispositions?

Like I said earlier, trade-off is slower expansion or faster expansion. However, if I were a prudent but aggressive Japanese player I'd keep my invasion forces well-escorted while pinpointing the early outward areas of strategic importance, take those first, and then secure the interior. Rather than landing at Rabaul, Munda, Tuladi, Tagula, John should have a well-escorted force landing at Suva or Pago Pago. Those secured, he has all the time in the world over the next 6 months to safely secure the targets that he is trying to secure currently.

Of course, we could all make the observation that I myself am acting on the calculated intentions of John. [:D] His proclivities are well-documented, so I don't view this as completely risky.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

@durnedwold Noted on R&D. Regarding the map and terrain, I make liberal use of the "1" hotkey. Pressing 1 reveals the terrain type of every land hex on the map, like below. A bit cluttered, but I only use it to narrow in on the terrain type of the relevant hex I'm looking at, so doesn't matter too much.

Thanks for the pic.
I have not played any extended map scenarios, so I rely on others. I see that the Swamp hex east of Wucahng is mislabeled. The Bellum Pacifica Kamikaze Extended map has been updated.
tm.asp?m=4268822&mpage=1&key=&#4268822

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

PS - I like the map graphics but I find it's hard to realize\visualize the actual terrain effects for ground combat. Just curious - what do you do to help remind yourself of a hex's actual terrain value?

After using the map awhile it becomes easy to know the terrain by the colors and the topography.
There are a few mistakes on the stock map, as it is the "hexterrain" file that determines the true terrain not the map.

[ny59giants]

Years ago, John and I read the same book about the TFs at sea on Dec 7th that were stretched across the Pacific to Luzon. We had many phone calls about those forces and came up with a few 'what if' ideas. John has a book on interwar hybrid warships. So, all those hybrids CLV & CAVs came from that. Add in him raising the allowed tonnage from revised Treaties. Don't forget that he did his Master's Thesis on the interwar treaties and this is more his area of expertise than mine. I just try to bring a sense of balance to both sides, but this is his mod and he has final word.

[Anachro]

Dec. 16 1941

Mixed night where the USN comes off worse than the IJN counterparts, but the infuriating thing is we had superior forces where my largest force didn't react at all. The IJN CL/DD fleet landed troops at Rabaul, took it, and sank a number of ships. Meanwhile, a large USN CA/CL/DD force that was set to surface combat sitting at Rabaul with a reaction of 2 didn't react at all and never participated in combat. I guess we learned TF's have to actually have a destination set to engage in combat. Interpreting the engine of the game, they must've sat by as other ships, allied and enemy, passed by. This results in a a bad series of engagements. If my Rabaul TF had engaged, Rabaul would still be Allied and we probably would have sunk a number of Japanese ships. Not a good day - lose a number of Banshee planes too.


TF90 never reacted to the enemy despite starting the turn in Rabaul and staying there...the enemy TF landed troops at Rabaul

Night Time Surface Combat, near Rabaul at 106,125, Range 6,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CL Aoba
CL Kinugasa, Shell hits 3, on fire
CL Furutaka
CL Kako, Shell hits 1, on fire
CL Kitakami
CL Oi, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Hatsuharu
DD Nenohi
DD Hatsushima, Shell hits 1
DD Wakaba
DD Oboro
DD Uzuki
DD Kikuzuki
DD Yuzuki

Allied Ships
CL Boise, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
DD John Barry, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Mayrant
DD Trippe, Shell hits 1
DD Stockton

Day Time Surface Combat, near Rabaul at 106,125, Range 14,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CL Aoba
CL Kinugasa
CL Furutaka
CL Kako, Shell hits 1
CL Kitakami, Shell hits 1
CL Oi, Shell hits 3
DD Hatsuharu
DD Nenohi
DD Hatsushima
DD Wakaba
DD Oboro
DD Uzuki
DD Kikuzuki
DD Yuzuki

Allied Ships
DD Mayrant, Shell hits 6, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

Day Time Surface Combat, near Rabaul at 106,125, Range 14,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CL Aoba, Shell hits 1
CL Kinugasa, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
CL Furutaka, Shell hits 2
CL Kako
CL Kitakami
CL Oi
DD Hatsuharu
DD Nenohi
DD Hatsushima
DD Wakaba
DD Oboro
DD Uzuki
DD Kikuzuki
DD Yuzuki, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
CA Pensacola, Shell hits 14, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Sands, Shell hits 1
DD Bundaberg, Shell hits 1
DD Tamworth
DD S.P. Lee, Shell hits 1

Day Time Surface Combat, near Rabaul at 106,125, Range 15,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CL Aoba
CL Kinugasa, Shell hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
CL Furutaka, Shell hits 1
CL Kako, Shell hits 3
CL Kitakami
CL Oi, Shell hits 1
DD Hatsuharu
DD Nenohi, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Hatsushima, Shell hits 2, heavy fires
DD Wakaba, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Oboro, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Uzuki, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Kikuzuki, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Yuzuki, Shell hits 3, heavy fires

Allied Ships
DD Mahan
DD Lamson, Shell hits 1
DD Cushing, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
DD Perkins, Shell hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Flusser, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Porter, Shell hits 4, on fire
DD Balch, Shell hits 10, heavy fires, heavy damage

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Rabaul at 106,125

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid spotted at 32 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Allied aircraft
A-24 Banshee x 41

Allied aircraft losses
A-24 Banshee: 1 damaged
A-24 Banshee: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese Ships
CL Furutaka, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
CL Kako
CL Kitakami, Bomb hits 2, on fire
DD Wakaba
CL Aoba, Bomb hits 1
DD Kikuzuki
DD Oboro, on fire

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CL Furutaka

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Dec. 16 1941

Mixed night where the USN comes off worse than the IJN counterparts, but the infuriating thing is we had superior forces where my largest force didn't react at all. The IJN CL/DD fleet landed troops at Rabaul, took it, and sank a number of ships. Meanwhile, a large USN CA/CL/DD force that was set to surface combat sitting at Rabaul with a reaction of 2 didn't react at all and never participated in combat. I guess we learned TF's have to actually have a destination set to engage in combat. Interpreting the engine of the game, they must've sat by as other ships, allied and enemy, passed by. This results in a a bad series of engagements. If my Rabaul TF had engaged, Rabaul would still be Allied and we probably would have sunk a number of Japanese ships. Not a good day - lose a number of Banshee planes too.


TF90 never reacted to the enemy despite starting the turn in Rabaul and staying there...the enemy TF landed troops at Rabaul

Night Time Surface Combat, near Rabaul at 106,125, Range 6,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CL Aoba
CL Kinugasa, Shell hits 3, on fire
CL Furutaka
CL Kako, Shell hits 1, on fire
CL Kitakami
CL Oi, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Hatsuharu
DD Nenohi
DD Hatsushima, Shell hits 1
DD Wakaba
DD Oboro
DD Uzuki
DD Kikuzuki
DD Yuzuki

Allied Ships
CL Boise, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
DD John Barry, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Mayrant
DD Trippe, Shell hits 1
DD Stockton

Day Time Surface Combat, near Rabaul at 106,125, Range 14,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CL Aoba
CL Kinugasa
CL Furutaka
CL Kako, Shell hits 1
CL Kitakami, Shell hits 1
CL Oi, Shell hits 3
DD Hatsuharu
DD Nenohi
DD Hatsushima
DD Wakaba
DD Oboro
DD Uzuki
DD Kikuzuki
DD Yuzuki

Allied Ships
DD Mayrant, Shell hits 6, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

Day Time Surface Combat, near Rabaul at 106,125, Range 14,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CL Aoba, Shell hits 1
CL Kinugasa, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
CL Furutaka, Shell hits 2
CL Kako
CL Kitakami
CL Oi
DD Hatsuharu
DD Nenohi
DD Hatsushima
DD Wakaba
DD Oboro
DD Uzuki
DD Kikuzuki
DD Yuzuki, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
CA Pensacola, Shell hits 14, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Sands, Shell hits 1
DD Bundaberg, Shell hits 1
DD Tamworth
DD S.P. Lee, Shell hits 1

Day Time Surface Combat, near Rabaul at 106,125, Range 15,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CL Aoba
CL Kinugasa, Shell hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
CL Furutaka, Shell hits 1
CL Kako, Shell hits 3
CL Kitakami
CL Oi, Shell hits 1
DD Hatsuharu
DD Nenohi, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Hatsushima, Shell hits 2, heavy fires
DD Wakaba, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Oboro, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Uzuki, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Kikuzuki, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Yuzuki, Shell hits 3, heavy fires

Allied Ships
DD Mahan
DD Lamson, Shell hits 1
DD Cushing, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
DD Perkins, Shell hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Flusser, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Porter, Shell hits 4, on fire
DD Balch, Shell hits 10, heavy fires, heavy damage

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Rabaul at 106,125

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid spotted at 32 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Allied aircraft
A-24 Banshee x 41

Allied aircraft losses
A-24 Banshee: 1 damaged
A-24 Banshee: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese Ships
CL Furutaka, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
CL Kako
CL Kitakami, Bomb hits 2, on fire
DD Wakaba
CL Aoba, Bomb hits 1
DD Kikuzuki
DD Oboro, on fire

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CL Furutaka

The react setting works if your TF is patrolling, not "remain on station".
You were up against a lot of torpedo tubes that crippled your most powerful ships, so the results are not too surprising.

[Anachro]

Wasn't set to Remain on Station - I just didn't give them a destination hex to move to. I'm aware of that that causes no reaction. I just assumed that two opposing TFs in the same hex would cause a combat to take place. It didn't. Something new was learned.

[Canoerebel]

Combat will usually occur under those circumstances, Anachro. I've seen it many times. But setting your TF to patrol the hex should increase the odds.

[adarbrauner]

Furutaka and Kitakami are in a bad shape, and both may be at risk.

The A-24 attack could have resulted in disastrous losses for John, and this was not maybe due to the weather, so a very good decision of yours ...should keep John on firm notice.

Clearly john counted on his strong escort to sweep away any opposition and discounted THAT kind of opposition you brought against him as unlikely; a strong lesson for him;


sincerely cannot understand why your strongest TF did not intervene in the battle in the same hex it was posted; hard to believe that it didn't because it was not given a destination, but hard to find another explanation either; a situation worth testing

[BillBrown]

The A-24 pilots will have really bad NavB stats, they will not hit many ships at this point.

[HansBolter]

Was the TF that didn't react "sitting" or patrolling a one hex pattern?. If it was sitting, that why it didn't react.

A TF sitting in it's home port, or in a target location hex with a Remain on Station order will Not react.

It needs a patrolling order or to be in route to a patrolling destination to react.

[adarbrauner]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Was the TF that didn't react "sitting" or patrolling a one hex pattern?. If it was sitting, that why it didn't react.

A TF sitting in it's home port, or in a target location hex with a Remain on Station order will Not react.

It needs a patrolling order or to be in route to a patrolling destination to react.

"Sitting" meaning docked or even undocked?

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Was the TF that didn't react "sitting" or patrolling a one hex pattern?. If it was sitting, that why it didn't react.

A TF sitting in it's home port, or in a target location hex with a Remain on Station order will Not react.

It needs a patrolling order or to be in route to a patrolling destination to react.

It wasn't set to "remain on station" but I did have it sitting in homeport, which probably automatically makes it so. So I learned something. It still might be possible to hit his damaged ships tomorrow based on their location in the air strike by my banshees. We'll see. He seems to have 2 destroyers sitting in port. Ill try to bomb or bombard these too.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Was the TF that didn't react "sitting" or patrolling a one hex pattern?. If it was sitting, that why it didn't react.

A TF sitting in it's home port, or in a target location hex with a Remain on Station order will Not react.

It needs a patrolling order or to be in route to a patrolling destination to react.

What I said, but Canoerebel's experience means there is a possibility of the two forces accidentally meeting each other. The picture I get is that the Allied TF being in the port hex does not mean it is necessarily in the port - the hex is 40 nm wide. So it is static in the hex, and NOT docked unless that was ordered. Under these circumstances it is entirely possible for the enemy to slip by out of visual range.

[adarbrauner]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Was the TF that didn't react "sitting" or patrolling a one hex pattern?. If it was sitting, that why it didn't react.

A TF sitting in it's home port, or in a target location hex with a Remain on Station order will Not react.

It needs a patrolling order or to be in route to a patrolling destination to react.

It wasn't set to "remain on station" but I did have it sitting in homeport, which probably automatically makes it so. So I learned something. It still might be possible to hit his damaged ships tomorrow based on their location in the air strike by my banshees. We'll see. He seems to have 2 destroyers sitting in port. Ill try to bomb or bombard these too.

If they were docked in port they won't react; were they?