A War to be Won - DesertWolf101 (A) vs Wirraway_Ace (J)

[DesertWolf101]

I am indeed somewhat perplexed at how little alarm the Japanese appear to show about the situation here. If I was the IJ player I would be sending everything I have to invade Java as soon as possible, regardless of casualties. The KB would certainly not be hanging around Port Moresby while the Palembang oil wells are getting hammered. Wirraway is clearly an excellent player though so I am not sure what his thinking is in this regard.

[DesertWolf101]

December 29, 1941

SRA

Three Japanese infantry divisions cross into Singapore. The 21st Division is heavily battered but the Imperial forces establish a secure bridgehead. More follow up forces are detected crossing behind the initial shock troops - I don't think Singapore will last long! CR at the bottom.

Japanese troops have landed at Kenadri and Ambon. I mistakenly forgot to put the Ambon gunners on combat stance so they didn't engage the enemy ships. The garrison commander is apparently too lenient with his men and allowed them leave during tense times. [:-] (This was a real issue that came up during the Java Sea campaign btw!).

In the all important air battle of Palembang, my bombers benefitted from excellent weather today. Due to the unfortunate lack of fighter escort, I resorted to sending the Dutch bombers first and at the low altitude of 2,000 feet. The reason is they are by far the most expendable bombers I have here and by going in very low I have a chance of getting some of them through Wirraway's CAP which is nicely staggered but frankly too oriented towards higher altitudes for this particular situation. Sure enough, 28 of the Dutch Martin medium bombers are lost but enough slip through under the CAP to make it more than worthwhile. Moreover, by the time the rest of my bombers arrived the Japanese fighter defense was exhausted. Once the dust settled my recon reported that 555 of the 900 Palembang oil wells are now damaged.

Wirraway's forces captured the next door airfields at Praboemoelih so I will now task the bulk of my bombers to neutralizing it before they resume pounding Palembang. Dutch bombers, now severely depleted in number, will be switched over to night bombing duty.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: DesertWolf101

I am indeed somewhat perplexed at how little alarm the Japanese appear to show about the situation here. If I was the IJ player I would be sending everything I have to invade Java as soon as possible, regardless of casualties. The KB would certainly not be hanging around Port Moresby while the Palembang oil wells are getting hammered. Wirraway is clearly an excellent player though so I am not sure what his thinking is in this regard.

Wirraway's indifference may stem from the oil not being viewed as a strategic necessity.

Palembang being destroyed makes little difference if the IJ plan is to win by auto-victory at the end of 1942.

[DesertWolf101]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: DesertWolf101

I am indeed somewhat perplexed at how little alarm the Japanese appear to show about the situation here. If I was the IJ player I would be sending everything I have to invade Java as soon as possible, regardless of casualties. The KB would certainly not be hanging around Port Moresby while the Palembang oil wells are getting hammered. Wirraway is clearly an excellent player though so I am not sure what his thinking is in this regard.

Wirraway's indifference may stem from the oil not being viewed as a strategic necessity.

Palembang being destroyed makes little difference if the IJ plan is to win by auto-victory at the end of 1942.

Excellent point and that is what I am concluding now as well. This is all the more reason to be prepared for some daring advances in his phase two operations.

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: DesertWolf101

I am indeed somewhat perplexed at how little alarm the Japanese appear to show about the situation here. If I was the IJ player I would be sending everything I have to invade Java as soon as possible, regardless of casualties. The KB would certainly not be hanging around Port Moresby while the Palembang oil wells are getting hammered. Wirraway is clearly an excellent player though so I am not sure what his thinking is in this regard.

Wirraway's indifference may stem from the oil not being viewed as a strategic necessity.

Palembang being destroyed makes little difference if the IJ plan is to win by auto-victory at the end of 1942.

Yet it is a contradiction in terms: he took Palembang very early, thus recognizing it a valuable for his own plans. Its tactic relevance is questionable at best, leaving the strategic level the only plausible explanation for his move.
In a pursuit for autovictory at the end of '42, he should have welcomed DesertWolf101 trying to establish a "fortress palembang" and left him doing it.

Personally, I deem the autovictory at the end of '42 a very difficult target to achieve. Much easier to aim for autovictory at the end of '43 from my experience.


I think he simply messed up at Palembang.

[DesertWolf101]

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: DesertWolf101

I am indeed somewhat perplexed at how little alarm the Japanese appear to show about the situation here. If I was the IJ player I would be sending everything I have to invade Java as soon as possible, regardless of casualties. The KB would certainly not be hanging around Port Moresby while the Palembang oil wells are getting hammered. Wirraway is clearly an excellent player though so I am not sure what his thinking is in this regard.

Wirraway's indifference may stem from the oil not being viewed as a strategic necessity.

Palembang being destroyed makes little difference if the IJ plan is to win by auto-victory at the end of 1942.

Yet it is a contradiction in terms: he took Palembang very early, thus recognizing it a valuable for his own plans. Its tactic relevance is questionable at best, leaving the strategic level the only plausible explanation for his move.
In a pursuit for autovictory at the end of '42, he should have welcomed DesertWolf101 trying to establish a "fortress palembang" and left him doing it.

Personally, I deem the autovictory at the end of '42 a very difficult target to achieve. Much easier to aim for autovictory at the end of '43 from my experience.


I think he simply messed up at Palembang.

I am speculating here, but I don't think he set out on this game with the intention of getting a very early autovictory. He may have switched to that strategy by now however once he saw that Palembang was in serious trouble. I also think that his decision to go to Palembang early was likely heavily influenced by my deception plan as outlined in previous posts.

[DesertWolf101]

December 30, 1941

Another day of airstrikes ends with further hits on Palembang oil wells. The airfields at Praboemoelih were also hit but not enough to close the base. 13 Hudsons and a few B-17Ds were lost in the strikes.

577 oil wells out of 900 in Palembang are now reported to be damaged. That's almost 2/3rds of the total. In the operation thus far I have lost about 100 aircraft, the vast majority of them Dutch medium bombers and fighters. Only half a dozen B-17Ds were lost in the op and no E versions. Nevertheless, I have decided to end the operation for three reasons:

1) With so much of the oil wells damaged it seems to be getting harder and harder to score hits on the remaining undamaged wells.
2) Japanese fighter defense is getting stiffer with the availability of more basing options and the steady inflow of engineers.
3) My bomber force is largely spent. The bulk of the available medium bombers have been shot down, and the B-17 fleet is in desperate need of repairs with more than 2/3rds down for maintenance.

With the operation over and with the Japanese air forces gaining bases within effective range of Java, I have also begun retiring my warships from the area. Time to lean on some other operations to keep the pressure on Wirraway and his forces.

[DesertWolf101]

December 31, 1941

SRA

The Japanese are methodically advancing in the DEI. Surprisingly, Singapore is still standing and will likely make it a couple of days into the new year. That is more than I expected for it after how events developed in the first week of the war so I will gladly take that. The Japanese are gearing up to press their attacks in Luzon and I think Wirraway is going to concentrate on taking Manila first. My main forces are positioned for the defense of Clark but I had to leave some 600 AV to hold Manila due to stacking limits.

China

Wirraway is definitely the toughest opponent I have faced in the Chinese theater so far! He is very cautious and methodical which does not give me many opportunities for ambushes and attacks either in the air or on the ground. As noted previously though, I did take advantage of his style of play to both secure Ichang and bluff my way around Sinyang to slip away with the vast bulk of the Chinese forces that start in very vulnerable positions in the area. Only 500 AV remained behind which is far less than a decisive Japanese player can bag in this sector in the first couple of weeks. In the greater scheme of things though, the outcome of this theater will be decided by whether I can find an answer to his massed tanks, and at least in the short term I doubt I will be able to stop his thrust with them towards Sian.

Southwest Pacific

The KB has been hanging around the area and Wirraway is set to keep advancing in this sector. I had evacuated Rabaul and concentrated on beefing up Port Moresby instead. Given his attention to the base with bombardments and KB raids, I am fairly sure he will try to take it next, and maritime traffic indicates he may have as many as two divisions on their way for the operation. I should have enough in Port Moresby to stand up against 1-2 divisions for some time but the garrison will eventually fall if Wirraway presses the offensive. That is fine by me as the garrison's purpose is essentially to buy me time.

Phase 2?

Speaking of time, the intelligence question I am grappling with is where will Wirraway go next. The way the Palembang op went I think he will be very keen to go for an autovictory since his long game is now seriously damaged. But where?

Striking Back

Finally, time to talk about an interesting op I have been working up. Three American fleet carriers will sprint towards the Home Islands this upcoming turn. I have picked up significant traffic around the Ominato area and am pretty sure there is significant amounts of shipping in northern Honshu/Hokkaido. Problem is the weather... It is thunderstorms and is looking bad. I can't risk hanging around much longer for fear of detection so I ordered the op to go ahead. Fingers crossed for some gaps in the clouds!

[Alfred]

1. For the carrier raid, don't overlook the Cold Zone impact.

2. Important though it is, nonetheless most Japanese players overestimate the urgency of capturing Palembang. The two reasons usually ascribed to justify its early capture are not as strong when more closely examined.

(a) prevent Festung Palembang. There are significant opportunity costs if the Allied player adopts this plan. Firstly it leaves the SRA very weak. Secondly it doesn't really contest the initiative. Thirdly there are ways Japan can starve the Allied garrison.

(b) capture the oil. Probably the most overrated justification. Provided the other SRA oil fields are captured promptly, say by April or May 1942, Japanese industry and military operations can survive without any Palembang oil until mid 1943. Only if the Japanese player uses the Combined Fleet in a reverse of the Great White Fleet exercise, showing the flag in areas deep in the Pacific where it has no business being seen, will the lack of Palembang oil be noticed before mid 1943.

If Japan wants Palembang it can capture it well before the end of 1942 irrespective of what the Allied player does. It therefore doesn't follow that a Japanese player who doesn't focus on Palembang (early capture and concentrated defense) does so because they are aiming for an early auto victory.

Alfred

[witpqs]

I agree. And I think many mods reduce or eliminate the supply that was made in stock by refining, so once Palembang is really cut off Imperial air dominance can destroy the defenders' supply stockpile.

Taking nearby bases before Palembang is how the Japan player should deal with the threat of strat bombing of Palembang. A house Rule could be used but the Allies did strat bomb targets like Palembang, and IIRC Palembang itself.

The only issue is if the ground battles cause devastating damage to facilities. So the real issue is not for the Imperial player to take Palembang quickly, it is to prevent a massive build up of Allied forces there.

[DesertWolf101]

January 1, 1942

My New Years present to Wirraway was almost spoiled by rotten weather, but the bombers delivered the package in the end. No morning strikes, but cloud cover over the carriers opened up enough to strike in the afternoon. As I was expecting, there were a lot of task forces concentrated around the Ominato area. Some 20 enemy cargo ships were sunk, about half of them larger ships and the other half smaller xAKLs. Clearly this is not the most damaging of strikes, but it does disrupt Wirraway's operations in terms of scrambling to defend the Home Islands, scores some valuable VP to help avoid an enemy autovictory, and provides some good training.

[mind_messing]

The shipping will likely scatter and run for cover, so look to hit the undefended manpower and resources hexes on Hokkaido. Kushiro is a prime target for such an attack. Also worth a bombardment mission or two with your escorting ships - may as well get rid of the shells before you sail back home.

[DesertWolf101]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

The shipping will likely scatter and run for cover, so look to hit the undefended manpower and resources hexes on Hokkaido. Kushiro is a prime target for such an attack. Also worth a bombardment mission or two with your escorting ships - may as well get rid of the shells before you sail back home.

You are thinking along the similar lines as I - Kushiro was the target that I ordered for the farewell strike.

[DesertWolf101]

January 2, 1942

The Allied carriers struck Kushiro's resource extraction centers with a hammer blow as they steamed to the east. More than 200 industry facilities were knocked out, netting me 424 strategic VPs for the day. Not too shabby!

Wirraway attacked in a couple of important places this turn. In both Singapore and east of Sian the Allied forces held their ground, but an Imperial breakthrough appears imminent in both locations. Even a few more days delay before they do so will be very helpful to the cause. The Singapore battle is illustrated below.

[Q-Ball]

Interesting Op on Kushiro! Is it worth the cost of revealing your CV location though?

As Japan, a silver lining is that I would now know that you have no CV support anywhere else in the Pacific. That would allow splitting of KB into multiple groups supporting multiple operations, for at least a 2-3 week period (given how long it would take to redeploy those CVs to Australia)

It's a tough balance, I know.....you need to let the Japanese player know you will use your CVs and not just sit in port, yet most of the time in order to keep a "fleet in being" they need to sit in port out where they can't be seen

[DesertWolf101]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Interesting Op on Kushiro! Is it worth the cost of revealing your CV location though?

As Japan, a silver lining is that I would now know that you have no CV support anywhere else in the Pacific. That would allow splitting of KB into multiple groups supporting multiple operations, for at least a 2-3 week period (given how long it would take to redeploy those CVs to Australia)

It's a tough balance, I know.....you need to let the Japanese player know you will use your CVs and not just sit in port, yet most of the time in order to keep a "fleet in being" they need to sit in port out where they can't be seen

There is always a trade off and of course in this case you are right that it is revealing where the carriers are. I think it is well worth it though as long as I don't stay in one area for too long. Besides the direct benefits of the op not least of which is the significant amount of VPs I accumulated as a buffer against autovictory, I also do want to encourage Wirraway to get into the habit of splitting the KB. If I am lucky I might get a chance at his split forces not only with my own carriers but potentially with massed surface ships too. The Palembang op for instance was carried out with the Hiryu and at least one other CVL in the immediate area, and I have had some success in the past hunting down smaller carrier task forces with surface ships.

[DesertWolf101]

January 3-4, 1942

A relatively quite two days. The American fleet carriers have retired away from the Home Islands without any further incident and I presume Wirraway is resting his forces for further attacks in China as well as the final offensive against Singapore.

On January 3rd a Dutch sub sank a decent 19 point tanker near Formosa, and on the 20th P-40Es knocked out 8 Ann light bombers in an ambush over Wenchow.

[DesertWolf101]

January 5-7, 1942

China

Wirraway has been bringing in armored units into China from both Manchuria as well as from the Southern Army. The Manchurian armor has gone to support the advance towards Sian from the east while the Southern Army armor has deployed with the Japanese advance on Sian from the direction of Nanyang to the southeast. Essentially, the Sian sector is facing off against two Japanese thrusts each with six armor regiments and copious air support. I can probably hold on against the thrust from Nanyang for a long time but the thrust from the east is a problem.

SRA

Dutch sub KXIV is having a great war thus far. In the span of a few days the sub sinks three enemy cargo ships north of Formosa.

Singapore fell to the enemy on the 6th of January. This is about a week longer than I expected it to hold going by how the situation developed on the first week of the war. The trapped Allied troops in Malaya exact a small measure of revenge when they maul a Japanese infantry regiment and a tank regiment after their failed river crossing north of Kuala Lumpur.

Further to the north around Rangoon, a CAP trap by the Flying Tigers knocks out a large number of Nells on the 6th. On the 7th, Wirraway retaliates and destroys three H-81s on the ground.

[DesertWolf101]

January 8-9, 1942

The pause before the next storm. Wirraway's DMSs are busy clearing Singapore's harbor of mines. I expect Japanese troops to embark for their next invasion in a couple of days. My guess is Java will be next.

The KB on both the 8th and 9th launched large strikes against industry on the Australian east coast. Damage was fairly minimal in both cases. Luckily, my anti-aircraft units from Cape Town are arriving just in time to bolster my flak defenses.

On the 8th I sent in a force of Buffalos into Malaya to intercept Japanese bombing raids on my trapped forces still there. The intel report notes 20 Sonias were shot down as a result, but this is exaggerated. I counted only 15 confirmed Sonias destroyed during the combat replay.

[DesertWolf101]

January 10, 1942

Another good day in the air war. The Flying Tigers bounce a significant force of Japanese Sally bombers on their strike on Sian. The Tigers tangle with the hefty Oscar sweeps and escort but still manage to make it through to shoot down at least 17 Sallies. The day would have been even better had one of my green and freshly arrived P-40 squadrons not been on a training mission in Brisbane when it got caught up by a KB strike on resources and badly battered.

A quick note to people who may not be aware of how to accurately read the air losses table on the intel screen with today's example below. The numbers for individual aircraft lost are very often exaggerated with the true number always the one to right of the table (the cumulative days losses on both sides). So for instance in this table if you add up all the Japanese losses by type of aircraft you will get 40 for the day. We know based on the accurate number on the right that this is an exaggeration of 5 aircraft. Hence in the paragraph above when I state that the Japanese lot at least 17 Sallies, that is with the understanding that 5 Japanese losses are not real. I don't know which individual types were exaggerated however and therefore more than 17 Sallies could have been knocked out.

Want to know how many 4E aircraft you destroyed thus far in the campaign? Once again the true number is always the one in the air losses screen to the right. Simply take this number (the total Allied losses - campaign) and subtract it from the Allied aircraft points loss tally at the first page of the intel tab. Since 4E aircraft cost two points instead of one, the difference between the two sums will give you the number of 4Es destroyed thus far in the campaign.