Odd, it's having the opposite effect on me.warspite1 wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 11:41 am Goodnesss, this thread is actually getting me interested in the boring Pacific theatre Buckrock![]()
Everything is too vague to contemplate. My head hurts.warspite1 wrote: So moving away from the Hawaiian leg of the 'plan' for a second, I am keen to understand more about the impact that taking the IJNAF aircraft away from Luzon would have on operations in the Philippines - and of course the subsequent move in the NEI.
Of course the chances of the Maui invasion force not being detected is pretty much zero but, lets go with the scenario that either a) they are not detected, or b) they are detected sufficiently late in the day that MacArthur, Brereton and Sutherland in the PI take no action other than what they did in real life.
What would the likely effect be? With a) less aircraft, and b) less long range aircraft, what level of loss would the USAAF and USN likely suffered in those initial days? Perhaps moreover, would sufficent aircraft be available to interupt the Japanese landings in the southern PI? Obviously it's impossible to say with certainty, but presumably those in the know can hazard an educated guess? My (admittedly limited) understanding is that it was the IJNAF aircraft (as opposed to the shorter range IJAAF) that really hurt the US airforce, but that may be incorrect.
This aspect is of course vital to the 'plan' because of the need to secure the NEI.
I'm certainly not going to try to quantify the outcome but effectively it will mean that FEAF will probably have more operational aircraft remaining when the Bettys and Nells and Zeros head south 4 weeks into the war. Or it means FEAF has suffered its historic mauling but it took most of the 4 weeks to do it and the JNAF has suffered heavier casualties. Either way the JAAF wont be much help as under Curtis Lemay's current plan only their fighters and none of their bombers are being moved to within range of the main US airfields on Luzon and since we know the JAAF will refuse to participate in JNAF operations, they'll not have much to do other than defend their new base on Mindoro.
After that things should move roughly historically in the DEI until the Japanese begin their air efforts against Java. That's when the lower numbers of Bettys and Zeros may tell (or if FEAF was able to send some of its now larger force south to reinforce Java). And then there is the issue with this "flexible delay" to the start time of the war, guaranteeing more P-40s and B-17s that were already on their way to the Philippines as of Dec 7th will now be available earlier and in greater numbers for the defence of Java.
As I said, it's all currently too vague to properly analyze but regardless of whatever form Curtis Lemay's plan finally takes, the Japanese are now in for a harder fight to complete the last part of their DEI campaign.