OT - The New Coronavirus

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: loki100

Bob's mindset is he doesn't understand two and half millenia of work in predictive/multivariate statistics (& as a field it is that old).

I'm pretty sure that pandemics weren't spread by jet aircraft 2.5 millennia ago. There has never been a pandemic like this one. Old models are just guesswork.

sequence of blogs on some of the methodological issues in modelling the spread and impact of the virus.

the link is to #3 in the series but it contains links back to the first 2. Author makes no pretence to being right, reviews the main models adopted by policy makers and, using non-mathematical terms, works through the underlying assumptions.

https://sacswebsite.blogspot.com/2020/0 ... virus.html

Its interesting what 2,500 years of methodological development (incl Archimedes counting cows) can get you to. Not so much the right answer but the tools to explore the underlying question.

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Lobster

Really? When a group of people bash one individual what do you call that? Whether it's orchestrated or not the purpose is to silence someone.

And again you are approaching this like you live in Iceland and seeing that there is a volcanic eruption in Japan you evacuate off shore so it doesn't affect you. Or at least that's your argument. [8|]

Look at the numbers in your city. That is what you need to worry about. Not what is happening in another country. You can't do anything about them.

warspite1

a) it's not 'bashing' an individual - I have no reason or wish to 'bash' Curtis Lemay personally, but its pointing out just how wrong his posting of that 'calculation' is - and the number of people that have done so is perhaps a clue? There is a difference between 'bashing' and getting one's point across. It's called a debate and people are allowed to express an opinion. Or are you of the view that once one person (two? three?) voice their opinion, further comment by others is not allowed? Even though they may have different angles and different strands to the debate? What is the correct number of people that may voice an opinion? So when there was an interminable argument about time stamps in TOAW why did you feel the need to 'gang up' on the guy arguing with Curtis Lemay? He had it all covered so wasn't your input superfluous? Or were you just expressing your opinion as you are fully entitled to do, and which is what has happened here?

I don't seek to silence him, that is absurd. I hoped he would be sufficiently aware of the situation, take on board the cogent arguments against posting that data in isolation, but if not, at least to add an appropriate caveat to the limitations of his %. But he chooses not to. He prefers the big scary, meaningless numbers without context approach. This is a serious situation and I think that is irresponsible.

b) please don't tell me how I personally should be approaching this. Your Japan/Iceland eruption is as pertinent to the situation as his ridiculous coins in the air. I should be looking at the numbers in my city only should I? I look at the numbers in my county, city, country, Europe, the world. I seek to educate myself on this topic as much as I can. So thanks for telling me how I should be viewing this and what I need to worry about, but I'll pass if its all the same.

a) Wrong
b) Wrong

Tired of pointing it out. Go bother someone else. Or continue trying to silence Bob. I don't care.

So post the last thing to make you right and end it. [:D]

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: loki100

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: loki100

Bob's mindset is he doesn't understand two and half millenia of work in predictive/multivariate statistics (& as a field it is that old).

I'm pretty sure that pandemics weren't spread by jet aircraft 2.5 millennia ago. There has never been a pandemic like this one. Old models are just guesswork.

sequence of blogs on some of the methodological issues in modelling the spread and impact of the virus.

the link is to #3 in the series but it contains links back to the first 2. Author makes no pretence to being right, reviews the main models adopted by policy makers and, using non-mathematical terms, works through the underlying assumptions.

https://sacswebsite.blogspot.com/2020/0 ... virus.html

Its interesting what 2,500 years of methodological development (incl Archimedes counting cows) can get you to. Not so much the right answer but the tools to explore the underlying question.

I did not like statistics in school. Trying to do those would make my head hurt.

Maybe Curtis Lemay should try doing those . . .

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: loki100

sequence of blogs on some of the methodological issues in modelling the spread and impact of the virus.

the link is to #3 in the series but it contains links back to the first 2. Author makes no pretence to being right, reviews the main models adopted by policy makers and, using non-mathematical terms, works through the underlying assumptions.

https://sacswebsite.blogspot.com/2020/0 ... virus.html

Its interesting what 2,500 years of methodological development (incl Archimedes counting cows) can get you to. Not so much the right answer but the tools to explore the underlying question.

Here's one of your posts from yesterday:

If, for the most part, the wider health systems don't collapse 1-5% (pick a number you're going to be as wrong as anyone else), if they do then I'd go for 10-15% (possibly hugher) for all the reasons that Franciscus gives.

I don't care what methodology is used, if it results in an answer of a death rate of between 1% to 15%, it is nothing but a guess. You fudged so wide that it's useless.

[Curtis Lemay]

Today's worldwide figures:

[rico21]

Heared to french tv.
At our Italian brothers.
Unfortunately, 20 of the 6000 doctors infected since the start of the epidemic died.[:(]
Or a mortality rate of 0.33%.

[MrRoadrunner]

17226/394828 = 4.3%
Rising slightly but holding steady in the four percent range?

(Not an attack. Just a different point of view and statistic.)

RR

[ncc1701e]

One source I have found. Map of the virus in the world:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

[Lobster]

Global
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source ... b617302d_2
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
U.S.A.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html
State I live in
52
City I live 'near'
26 confirmed and no deaths

If I went by the global news I would be in a state of panic like many seem to be (names will not be mentioned). But I look at the local level with zero deaths. So while I follow the recommended actions I have virtually nothing to worry about and likely won't because me and mine are not so stupid as to think we are invulnerable. Using common sense will save you from fairly any illness. Running around like a chicken with it's head cut off, 'omg look at how bad it is on the other side of the PLANET!!!' is pointless stress. [:'(]

If it ever did get as bad here as it is in Italy I still have nothing to worry about because I understand the necessary steps to take to stay safe. Always have.

[warspite1]

Wow.....er just wow.....

[Piteas]

Hi from Spain.

Here staying at home, hoping best times.[8D]

I present you official data in Spain, as an example of the virus lethality in older people:

95% deads in my country are +60 old (67% of them are +80 old)

it is a terrible virus for older people.

Link (in spanish but the list numbers are understable): https://www.eldiario.es/sociedad/fallec ... 99338.html


Good luck for all of you from my spanish corner.

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Wow.....er just wow.....

Yeah I know, right?

Especially when you look at this one. The closed cases graph on the right. Oh wait, we can't have that because it supports Bob's views. Ignore that one. [:D][:D][:D][:D][:D]:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Maybe you better write these guys and tell them how wrong they are and they need to get their heads out of there bums. [:D]


Sources
Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports - World Health Organization (WHO)
2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in the U.S. -. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Outbreak Notification - National Health Commission (NHC) of the People’s Republic of China
Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) - Australian Government Department of Health
Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic prediction - Jonathan M. Read et al, Jan. 23,2020.
Early Transmissibility Assessment of a Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China - Maimuna Majumder and Kenneth D. Mandl, Harvard University - Computational Health Informatics Program - Posted: 24 Jan 2020 Last revised: 27 Jan 2020
Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV - 25 January 2020 - Imperial College London‌
Case fatality risk of influenza A(H1N1pdm09): a systematic review - Epidemiology. Nov. 24, 2013
A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern - Chen Want et al. The Lancet. January 24, 2020
Symptoms of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) - CDC
China's National Health Commission news conference on coronavirus - Al Jazeera. January 26, 2020
Wuhan lockdown 'unprecedented', shows commitment to contain virus: WHO representative in China - Reuters. January 23, 2020
Statement on the meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) - WHO, January 23, 2020
International Health Regulations Emergency Committee on novel coronavirus in China - WHO, January 30, 2020
Human-to-human transmission of Wuhan virus outside of China, confirmed in Germany, Japan and Vietnam - The Online Citizen, Jan. 29, 2020
Who: "Live from Geneva on the new #coronavirus outbreak"
CDC Confirms Person-to-Person Spread of New Coronavirus in the United States - CDC Press Release, Jan. 30, 2020
CMO confirms cases of coronavirus in England - CMO, UK, Jan. 31, 2020
Coronavirus in France: what you need to know - The Local France, Jan. 31, 2020
First two persons infected with coronavirus identified in Russia - Tass, Jan. 31, 2020
Updated understanding of the outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in Wuhan, China - Journal of Medical Virology, Jan. 29, 2020
Estimating the effective reproduction number of the 2019-nCoV in China - Zhidong Cao et al., Jan. 29, 2020
Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak - Jan. 30, 2020
Coronavirus: Window of opportunity to act, World Health Organization says - BBC, Feb,\. 4, 2020
Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China - Wang et. al, JAMA, Feb. 7, 2020

[MrRoadrunner]

US deaths to reported.

588/48,778 = 1.2%

RR

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Lobster

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Wow.....er just wow.....

Yeah I know, right?

warspite1

No I wasn't referring to any links you posted - I thought you said in post 741 you were tired of all that? [8|]. I'd given you the last word that you appeared so childishly desperate for in post 741 - but you couldn't let it go could you?

I was referring to your last post (748) and 5 lines of the most arrogant, pig-ignorant verbiage I've read in a very long time. Well done. Read that back to yourself. No truly, well done.

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Lobster

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Wow.....er just wow.....

Yeah I know, right?

warspite1

No I wasn't referring to any links you posted - I thought you said in post 741 you were tired of all that? [8|]. I'd given you the last word that you appeared so childishly desperate for in post 741 - but you couldn't let it go could you?

I was referring to your last post (748) and 5 lines of the most arrogant, pig-ignorant verbiage I've read in a very long time. Well done. Read that back to yourself. No truly, well done.

Okay so back to basics. How did you arrive at your numbers? And please attempt to use logic instead of emotions. I won't give you childish second paragraph a response. I left middle school long ago.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Lobster

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Lobster



Yeah I know, right?

warspite1

No I wasn't referring to any links you posted - I thought you said in post 741 you were tired of all that? [8|]. I'd given you the last word that you appeared so childishly desperate for in post 741 - but you couldn't let it go could you?

I was referring to your last post (748) and 5 lines of the most arrogant, pig-ignorant verbiage I've read in a very long time. Well done. Read that back to yourself. No truly, well done.

Okay so back to basics. How did you arrive at your numbers? And please attempt to use logic instead of emotions. I won't give you childish second paragraph a response. I left middle school long ago.

warspite1

Sorry I don't understand? I've given you the last word you wanted on this death rate cobblers, so why do you try yet again to bring it up? Is it just so that any further response will have you crying about how there is a cabal trying to silence Bob?

And please don't give it the faux superiority. "I left middle school long ago". Yes very haughty, very superior, and yet you couldn't help yourself with the 'state of panic' the 'running around like a chicken' and 'names will not be mentioned'. Child.

So no, I have given you the last word (although you don't appear happy with your victory - maybe even you have the self awareness to know its Pyrrhic?).

So without raising this again I will simply refer you to what has been said before: I don't have numbers. I'm not an expert, I don't pretend to be an expert on pandemics or medical matters generally. I can't give you an accurate death rate, because at present no one can. I haven't said I can. What I have said is the 'death rate' as being adopted by Curtis Lemay is wrong. And forget the coin crap - these are human beings - his 'calculation' completely ignores the largest data point. It completely ignores it. Unless they all die his numbers are nothing but scaremongering and totally irresponsible if presented without any caveat. There is no undue emotion here, there is no hidden agenda; the numbers will be what they will be. To confidently state "I hate to be the bearer of bad news but we've been calculating this wrongly" is wrong.

There, nothing new, nothing different, you have the last word on the numbers. You've said I'm wrong and I can't be bothered to argue with you about Curtis Lemay spurious 'death rate'.

[MrsWargamer]

No numbers, no stats, no references. I am just plain worried that Canada and the US have not been aggressive enough with this.

We've seen it at work in places that have been aggressive, and it has been rough on them.
I'm concerned that our populations are going to get a real kick in the teeth shortly.

Whether from the virus itself or from our own ill-advised actions.

[sPzAbt653]

Here in Maryland our shitty government gets serious and starts posting signs like this one.

[sPzAbt653]

Seems like many folks are heeding the signs. This is the shopping center parking lot, which is usually packed except for the back rows. Kind of weird and eerie.

[sPzAbt653]

Then when I got into the store I had to check out the TP aisle ... holy shit! The poor sewer system must be overflowing from all the slobs pooping out their emergency rations.