A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

[KingHart]

Unfortunately for your "US is clueless " thesis, everything your Quora "experts " have written is wrong:

They were clueless about a raid on Pearl Harbor.

Wrong.
The Japanese achieved surprise due to a command decision to stand down on that particular Sunday. Prior to 7 December, Pearl Harbor had been on high alert for several weeks. The alert status had been tested starting in June 1940, 18 months before the raid. The US were certainly not "clueless".

The vast majority of the Japanese pilots at Pearl Harbor had no combat experience - most of the Japanese pilots in China were Army, not Navy ;

For sure they had huge flight time hours.

Wrong.
The pilots of Shokaku and Zuikaku were rookies, barely carrier-trained.

US pre-war pilot training was at least equal, if not superior, to Japanese pilot training;
Neither the P-40 nor the F4F were at all "visibly inferior " to the Zero, nor were US training and tactics inferior to Japanese standards;
The US had been preparing for war for over a year before Pearl Harbor, they didn’t just start on 7 December;

The above says otherwise. The US were on a peacetime basis. The Japs were at war.

Wrong.
As I've said, the US had been preparing for war for over a year before the raid.

The total time of the raid was 90 minutes, not "less than 15 minutes";

I'm sure the expert was refering to the time over a specific airfield, not the total raid.

Wrong.
Please read what your "expert" said: "...the whole show was over in less than 15 minutes..."
Again, the raid lasted 90 minutes.

A total of 14 US P-36 and P-40 fighters were able to get airborne during the second wave attack, the Japanese had 36 Zeroes, yet only shot down 2 US planes while the US pilots were credited with 11 kills.

Results depend upon the mission. The mission was bombing not air superiority.

Wrong.
The mission of the Japanese fighters was to shoot down any US fighters. In this they failed miserably, killing only 2 of 14 US fighters while allowing them to shoot down 11 Japanese planes. This 5-to1 kill ratio was achieved during the second wave attack, after the Japanese had done most of the damage to the US airfields and the island was, according to your "experts" plunged into total chaos.
Imagine what would have happened to the Japanese if the US had been alerted.

Instead of relying on internet myths and 30-year-old PC game mechanics, might I suggest you read some of the more recent WW2 authors (Lundstom, Parshall, Zimm, etc).

I'm relying on professors and USAF experts.

A part-time professor (of what?) and a 4-year USAF veteran.
Yes, very impressive.
Again, try these people:
Alan Zimm
Anthony Tully
Jon Parshall
John Lundstom
Nathan Okun

[warspite1]

I'm relying on professors and USAF experts.

warspite1

Out of curiosity, why do accept what you believe to be professors and USAF experts in this thread (Who you believe support your plan), but wouldn't accept the US Army staff officers and German Army sources in the thread on Spain and Turkey (who contradicted your plan)?

[Aurelian]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_G ... _transport: Almost 4,000

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_transport

Haskell class could carry more than 1500 officers and men

Frederick Funston class: 2200

No converted DD is going to carry anywhere near that much.

The Tokyo Express DDs the IJN used were unmodified.

Two Minkaze class, being second line units by 1940, were converted to fast transports. was rebuilt as a destroyer transport able to carry two Daihatsu-class landing craft and accommodate 250 troops. To make room for these, her stern was cut down to the waterline for a ramp and her aftmost 12 cm gun, the remaining torpedo tubes and the depth charges were removed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daihatsu- ... ding_craft

So landing those troops, and their equipment, was going to take awhile.

[KingHart]

To put it as simply as possible - without any details you have no plan.
Details include:
Complete OOB (air, land, naval);
Chronology (when does the invasion force leave Japan / what route do they take/ how often and where do they refuel / when and where does KB stop to allow the APDs to get 12 hours ahead/ when does the APDs force start their run in to Maui / when does the landing take place/ where are the APDs after the landing/ when does the invasion force attack the airfield/ where is KB after the raid/ where is the Midway invasion force/ when is Midway invaded)
Options ( what to do if the Japanese are detected)
Follow-up ( how are the invasion forces supplied/supported)

Again, without answering any of the above questions with any details there is no way to determine whether or not your plan will succeed.

I've answered most of that over and over.

Names of units are just chrome. Planes are what matters and I'm taking 32 Zeros and 48 Bettys from Luzon - two groups. The Bettys are delivered from Eniwetok. The Zeros come from the carriers initially, but replaced by the ones from Luzon when Midway is secured.

The invasion force sails with the Raid Fleet as historical. They refuel the same as the other DDs in that raid. They stop a couple of days out from the raid launch. After topping off, the APDs head out. The landing takes place when the APDs get to Maui after starting out at dusk 100 miles out - about midnight. Attacks take place once the raid begins. The Midway invasion takes place when the carriers get there coming from Pearl.

The invasion forces are delivered supplies when the APDs return after the raid begins. The ground crews and their supplies are also delivered then.

What to do if detected depends upon when that happens. Early enough and the whole thing can be aborted. Late enough and it won't matter - the US won't have time to respond.

Okay, let me see if I have this right-
You are proposing that Japan send 48 Betty bombers, with no ammo or bomb loads (or fighter escort), on a 2500-mile flight, to an island none of the pilots have ever flown to before, at night, regardless of weather conditions, with nowhere to land when they arrive, out of fuel when they arrive, and in close proximity to both an alerted US carrier and an alerted Pearl Harbor at the end of their flight?
And you claim it is the US that is "clueless"...

Please explain - What is your Midway invasion force? / Where do these units come from? / Where is the invasion force during the Pearl Harbor raid? / How are you suppling fuel to all these ships? / Where and how many tankers?

Please explain - How are the supplies delivered to Maui after the raid? / Where are the cargo ships during the raid? / Where are the ground crews and their supplies during the raid and how do they get to Maui after the raid? / How are you fueling the cargo ships?

Please explain - Exactly what is the OOB of your Maui invasion? (1 battalion? /2 battalions? 4 battalions?) / What are their objectives? (airfield only? /airfield and port?)

Please explain - How are all the Japanese units informed if an abort is called? / What if the Betty bombers are not informed? How does your abort affect the other Japanese offensives? (Malaya / Borneo)

[Buckrock]

My understanding was that of the 72 planes on Enterprise, only 24 were flown to Pearl on December 7, 1941. 11 were shot down. That leaves 48 on board.

Sorry, what has this got to do with the scenario being discussed?
Peacetime SOP was that all flyable aircraft from a CV would be expected to be landed ashore if the carrier was going to moor in harbor. And I should point out the Enterprise never entered PH on Dec 7th so the fact that it may have still had aircraft on board on that day is irrelevant.

Yet our historical example from the raid contradicts that.

It does not. Again for clarity, the SOP in peacetime for a USN CV coming into moor at Pearl Harbor was that it would be expected to fly off its CAG to Luke Field prior to entering harbor. That's what Enterprise was in the middle of doing with her CAG until peacetime suddenly became wartime.

And if central to your plans is the requirement that the carriers be in port before you attack, why are you concerning yourself about whether the Enterprise at sea intended to transfer her air group all in one flight or in several prior to entering PH? All that matters is that she wouldn't have had her CAG aboard when she moored under peacetime SOP.

Anyway, the Enterprise expected to enter PH late afternoon on the 7th and intended to land her aircraft ashore prior to entering harbor. The process was started when her morning search aircraft were ordered to land at Luke Field when they completed their outer search arcs as PH would then be closer than Enterprise. The rest of the CAG would follow later that day when Enterprise was closer to PH. Unfortunately war then intervened on the rest of the peacetime plan and Enterprise operated away from PH for the rest of the 7th.

So the peacetime SOP as I described it was being followed in this example and would have had Enterprise moored in PH at the end of the day and with her aircraft at Luke Field had war not interrupted the process. There is no contradiction.

Nevertheless, this site (Quora) answers a couple of questions about US carriers being in port or running into the Jap fleet:

The quora information has no references. It appears to be opinion of no relevant qualification and some of it is clearly factually wrong.

Not getting any references from you for anything either. These are professors and USAF experts.

I'm not the one having to sell the plan. You know my conditions. You start supplying the detail and I'll start supplying the relevant references.

But since it hurts that you're doubting me , here's your one freebie and I'll supply it for my post above....
From John B. Lundstrom's "The First Team: Pacific Naval Air Combat from Pearl Harbor to Midway", page 15. Naval Institute Press:-
"At dawn on Sunday, 7 December, Halsey’s Task Force 8 was still some 215 miles west of Oahu, although the winds had abated for the most part. Halsey planned to send eighteen Enterprise SBD dive bombers to search 150 miles ahead of the task force as a normal precaution. Instead of returning to the carrier, the search flight would proceed directly to Pearl Harbor. The rest of the air group would follow that afternoon, taking off before “The Big E” entered port."

You'll have to earn the rest.

These are professors and USAF experts.

When I looked at your original posting I saw one person stating he was a professor of chemistry and another stating he worked for several years as an Industrial Security Program Manager in the USAF and had also done a BA in history (with no mention of any speciality). Either of these two people could be brilliant PH amateur historians for all I know but I'm not seeing anything about what they researched on the subject and to my knowledge, Quora does not require anyone to back up their answers with references, so currently their opinions on this subject add no real weight to your cause.

The Thatch Weave wasn't even tested until Midway.

So they might get to test it at PH rather than Midway. The point was the squadron was familiar enough with the F4F to develop a tactic in the three months they had the F4F, one that would prove highly effective against the Zero the first time it was used in battle.

This meshes well with my long contention that the US was clueless and unprepared for war. The whole theme of this is a scathing view of US readiness.

Whatever you think of the US historical performance, you are yet to show how it could render them so utterly helpless that the Japanese in your scenario could effectively do what they wished without consequence.

You forget Clark Field.

Get back to me when you have the KB strike schedules and I'll happily go through my views on Clark Field and how it may relate to your scenario. I'll even include references.

[Buckrock]

Maui is 727 square miles in area. Lots of Jungle.

And the "Jungle" was nowhere close to Puunene airfield. Let us know when you have the details as to roughly where the Japanese are going to land, how far and through what areas you believe they would move after landing, then how far from Puunene do you expect them to go into hiding and finally, what is their plan to then capture the airfield if they hear the "go" order.

They only need the jungle if the raid is canceled. The location of the airfield doesn't matter then. And the Japanese didn't need jungle to be invisible.

Get back to me when you have the details I asked for and then we can better judge what the Japanese might realistically have been able to do on Maui.

[Buckrock]

The historical plan didn't have an abort option.

It did.

Not to abort the entire Pacific if the carriers are not in port.

True. The historical Japanese knew their practical planning limits.

Radios used from where? Maui? Oahu? Who tells Tokyo to spread the word that the mission is aborted?

Radios everywhere. Tokyo makes the abort decision. If it does, then it sends out the abort code words to all.

So how is there no delay when Tokyo can't even start transmitting the Pacific wide abort order until it first receives the information from the Hawaiian Islands. And who in the Hawaiian Islands is sending the information? I know what the historical Japanese did to get information to Tokyo but as normal we've got no details about your process.

If you don't stop spitballing and instead start detailing soon, I'm going to withdraw my help in guiding you back to WWII reality.

Your choice.

[Curtis Lemay]

Another extraordinary set of claims.... this is a 15 hour flight.

The weather conditions can't be guaranteed.
Putting down in the sea is fraught with danger. How about at night or in a storm?
Which series of Japanese ships are going to be tracking the aircraft on their 15 hour flight? Do you envisage a relay of Japanese rescue vessels spread liberally along a line Marshalls-Oahu?
According to your earlier statement, an abort order could be given one hour before the raid. How much fuel do the Bettys have at this point? Some of those rescue ships better be close to the PI.....

They can trade themselves for an American ship? Well not if the abort order is the reason they are turning back. But the fact you even say this shows that the sacrifice of 40 Bettys and almost 300 aircrew for nothing is, according to you, not even a problem for the Japanese? This is plainly not the case.

The same crap, over and over and over.

Try and pay attention: The transfer range (unarmed) of the Betty was 3749 miles. The distance to Maui from Eniwetok is 2813 miles. That gives them 936 miles to spare - if they are flying unarmed. Plenty of range to find the Jap fleet, since they know where it is.

If the winds are such that they can transfer armed, their range is 3132 miles and the distance to Oahu is 2715 miles - 417 miles to spare. If the winds allow it - and they will precede the strike with a test run by a Mavis to check the winds - they will be able to wreak havoc on cruisers and destroyers in Pearl.

The raid will not be canceled after the Bettys pass the point of no return.

[Curtis Lemay]

The pathfinders will have that scoped. Regardless, Japanese were superb at camo. Anyone who was on Guadalcanal can atest.

warspite1

It doesn't matter what these pathfinders have scoped. If the best landing beach is too far from a safe place to hide out then its too far. But the sentence underlined is priceless. I can imagine 2,000 Japanese troops (and their equipment) disguised as nuns on a field trip to the beach.....or perhaps lamposts in downtown Puunene, where they stand very still for 24 hours?

Erm.... wasn't Guadalcanal jungle? Or were their disguises so good they weren't spotted in the Solomon Islands jungle even when dressed as Mother Superior and her gang of nuns? Sorry I am unclear here.

Is there anything these supermen can't do? I must find me a Code of Bushido pill....

Try watching "The Thin Red Line".

And, I repeat, Maui is 727 square miles in area. They will not be spotted.

[Curtis Lemay]

Again, they have pathfinders guiding them. Dead troops wouldn't be found in time to alert Pearl.

warspite1

Can you elaborate on that please? How do these pathfinders stop two destroyers colliding in the pitch black - even more so if there is fog or a storm? How do they stop the boats taking the troops to the shore from capsizing? You know, normal landing craft accidents that can happen at any time.

By the way, who has trained these pathfinders? They sound brilliant!! I think we should give them a name for the purposes of this thread. How about SAS - special army soldiers?

Right. The Japanese were just coliding in the night right and left. They were the keystone cops. My gosh! How did they sail anywhere?

[Curtis Lemay]

So please provide detail. 50 tons of what? What does this magic 50 provide in terms of the fuel, ammunition and bombs/torpedoes needed for 40 Bettys and 36 Zeros (less those already lost due to take off and landing accidents, shot down over Oahu, and getting lost on the way to Oahu - you know, ordinary operational stuff suffered by airforces). How much AA weaponry (and what type) is to be made available? Where is the port? Where is the airfield in relation to the invasion beach? How do the Japanese get the fuel and ammunition and bombs/torpedoes to the airfield? How long does all this take? The Japanese have no transport (hell, at the outset they have no airfield and no port). The Japanese are on a very tight timescale. Give us a timeline, give us some detail. Please. Without which this is just hot air.

I have heard it said the Japanese have pathfinders, and these are a cross between Superman, King Canute and the invisible man, but even so, there actually needs to be a workable plan here.

The bomb load of the Betty was 800kg. Distance from Maui to Oahu is only 115 miles. So...far less than 50 tons needed for 40 Bettys and 32 Zeros.

The Japs will have both the airfield and port by the time the APDs get back in the afternoon.

What takeoff and landing accidents did the carrier aircraft suffer at Pearl Harbor, historically?

[Curtis Lemay]

The APDs will have about the same space per man as the Torch ships had.

warspite1

Fair enough. Can you quote the dimensions of the troop ships that took US troops to Casablanca from the East Coast, and those of the Japanese destroyer conversion just to support your statement please?

That's not necessay. Whatever the space on any transport was, military planners will fill it to the max with troops. We can be sure Torch was no luxury trip.

And it took 18 days at sea!!!!! You can't wiggle off that.

[Curtis Lemay]

Repeat: The Zeros left on Maui will be swapped out with the Luzon Zeros as soon as Midway is operational. From that point the carriers will have historical complements.

warspite1

Or more likely the Zeros on Maui, unsupplied and with no AA defence, will be whittled down to nothing within days - assuming they even got to Maui. The Bettys won't last that long.

Here's the most contemporary evidence we have of US performace expectations at this time:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Clark_Field

And no plan, no timetable has been put forward for the capture of Midway.

Midway will be captured as soon as the carriers get there from Pearl.

[Curtis Lemay]

Nimitz disagrees with you.

warspite1

Not at all. You see what the great Chester Nimitz was talking about (the Pearl raid) is not what I am talking about (your plan).

No. He was talking about how vulnerable the oil stocks were and what their loss would cost the US plans. Those stocks are going to be torched long before the US can eject the Japs from Maui.

[Curtis Lemay]

Only if you ignore sinking TWO US CARRIERS and delaying US response by TWO YEARS!!!!

warspite1

Except the losses suffered by the Japanese, and the disclocation suffered to their plan for the SRA are so great that the inconvenience the US suffer while Oahu recovers and the defenders of Maui are destroyed means that two US carriers is a fair swap.

You've admitted yourself, the KB can't stay off Oahu. The Japanese can't reinforce or re-supply Maui with anything without major jeopardy for whatever is sent to try it. The first thing the USN will do is set up a submarine cordon around Maui.

Those units that did manage to land on Maui will soon wish they hadn't. Pearl will suffer barely any more damage (if any) than it did historically and Maui will be taken back by fresh troops from the mainland.

If only the Japanese had tried this in real life. Would have ended the war much earlier.

Now THAT'S wishful thinking! Maui is defended by a small force at peace on a sunday. The island will be infiltrated by 2400 soldiers at night and guided to optimum strike points by 8:00am. They will then take the facilities by surprise and in the rear. Once established, they will quickly torch any ships remaining in Pearl and the oil stocks. Then they can finish off any BBs not yet sunk. Once air superiority is established, it will be very hard for the US to regain Maui.

This remains a no brainer. Is it guaranteed? Of course not, but it has such a huge payoff - for the risk of a couple of battalions - its foolish not to take the option.

[Curtis Lemay]

The inital supply delivery will last a month. Time enough to torch Pearl and the oil stocks. The planes can fly out if necessary. The troops will trade their lives for American ones if they can't be rescued.

warspite1

Well if you detail a plan of action with a timetable we might be able to judge the likelihood of this supply delivery making it to Maui.

I have, repeatedly. The APDs return to Maui after the raid begins. They and the ships carrying the ground crews unload that afternoon - long before the US can be expected to interfere.

[Curtis Lemay]

Names of units are just chrome.

warspite1

Names are chrome if you want to be able to use the same units in two different places. If you want to put forward a coherent plan, names are kind of vital.

No. They're chrome. I've identified the planes used. That's all that is necessay.

[Curtis Lemay]

I'm relying on professors and USAF experts.

warspite1

Out of curiosity, why do accept what you believe to be professors and USAF experts in this thread (Who you believe support your plan), but wouldn't accept the US Army staff officers and German Army sources in the thread on Spain and Turkey (who contradicted your plan)?

That was answered in that thread.

[warspite1]

Again, they have pathfinders guiding them. Dead troops wouldn't be found in time to alert Pearl.

warspite1

Can you elaborate on that please? How do these pathfinders stop two destroyers colliding in the pitch black - even more so if there is fog or a storm? How do they stop the boats taking the troops to the shore from capsizing? You know, normal landing craft accidents that can happen at any time.

By the way, who has trained these pathfinders? They sound brilliant!! I think we should give them a name for the purposes of this thread. How about SAS - special army soldiers?

Right. The Japanese were just coliding in the night right and left. They were the keystone cops. My gosh! How did they sail anywhere?

warspite1

You appear to be saying that collisions - and certainly IJN collisions - didn’t happen? Well I’m afraid you are sorely mistaken. Have a look at the RN, the USN, The IJN, the Kriegsmarine, and the Regia Marina in World War II. You will be surprised by just how many collisions happened during the war - and even prior to that in peacetime. Now add, pressured situations where ships are operating in close proximity, in total darkness, in unfamiliar waters, maybe add in some bad weather.... No, the IJN were not the Keystone Cops, they were a serious navy. That did not stop ships being damaged or lost due to collisions - even in non-combat conditions.

Your entire Plan is based on some Japanese ships and soldiers and aircraft doing some stuff and everything goes great. Real life isn't like that.

For the billionth time, I can't say the Japanese would suffer an accident that gave away the operation. You can't say they wouldn't. But these are the sort of things that military planners would be taking into account when considering 'the plan'.

[warspite1]

I'm relying on professors and USAF experts.

warspite1

Out of curiosity, why do accept what you believe to be professors and USAF experts in this thread (Who you believe support your plan), but wouldn't accept the US Army staff officers and German Army sources in the thread on Spain and Turkey (who contradicted your plan)?

That was answered in that thread.

warspite1

It couldn't have been. You didn't raise the 'professors' and USAF experts in that thread. Your only source in that thread was a set of wargame rules. I gave primary sources from German planners responsible for the attack on Gibraltar, I gave sources about the Italian politcal situation and the position in respect to Germany. I gave US Army sources that detailed the Greek campaign. You rubbished all of this.

Now, because you think you've found a couple of self-appointed 'experts' to support what you say, suddenly relying on experts is okay.