- 06-AX-Med-CL.png (9.1 KiB) Viewed 201 times
- 06-AX-Med.png (1.08 MiB) Viewed 201 times
A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Moderator: Shannon V. OKeets
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #6. Med.
Last edited by rkr1958 on Thu Nov 06, 2025 8:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #6. Europe.
- 06-AX-Eastern-CL.png (46.26 KiB) Viewed 201 times
- 06-AX-Europe.png (2.82 MiB) Viewed 201 times
Last edited by rkr1958 on Fri Nov 07, 2025 7:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #6. Asian Theater.
IJN Port Strike. Vladivostok.
IJN Port Strike. Vladivostok.
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- 06-AX-Asian-JPN-Port-Strike-Vladivostok-1.png (272.38 KiB) Viewed 199 times
- 06-AX-Asian-JPN-Port-Strike-Vladivostok-2.png (336.32 KiB) Viewed 199 times
- 06-AX-Asian-JPN-Port-Strike-Vladivostok-3.png (224.76 KiB) Viewed 199 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #6. Asian Theater.
JPN vs USSR.
JPN vs USSR.
- 06-AX-Asian-JPN-vs-USSR-LM-CL.png (19.15 KiB) Viewed 199 times
- 06-AX-Asian-Machuria-Korea.png (1.61 MiB) Viewed 199 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Axis #6. Asian Theater.
Northern China (vs CCP).
Central & Coastal Armies.
Northern & Central China.
Northern China (vs CCP).
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- 06-AX-Asian-JPN-Central-and-Coastal-Armies.png (15.09 KiB) Viewed 195 times
- 06-AX-Asian-Central-China.png (968.54 KiB) Viewed 195 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Asian Theater.
Chungking, China.
Chungking, China.
- 06-AX-Asian-Chungking-CL.png (86.8 KiB) Viewed 194 times
- 06-AX-Asian-GSTK-Chungking.png (372.26 KiB) Viewed 194 times
- 06-AX-Asian-GSPT-Chungking.png (343.95 KiB) Viewed 194 times
- 06-AX-Asian-LC-Chungking.png (281.51 KiB) Viewed 194 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Asian Theater.
Southern China.
Southern China.
- 06-AX-Asian-Southern-China.png (1.4 MiB) Viewed 193 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #7. Weather, Actions, Impulse Details.
- 07-AL-Weather.png (113.54 KiB) Viewed 164 times
- 07-AL-Actions.png (50.77 KiB) Viewed 164 times
- 07-AL-Impulse-Info.png (80.81 KiB) Viewed 164 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #7. Impulse Planning. USA.
(1) I noticed this last turn after moving 1 CV & 1 CA to Pearl Harbor for a total of 6 USN BBs, 2 CVs, 2 CAs.
(2) The DOW vs Japan didn't change; it remained at 20% instead to going up to 40% after I moved the required fleet out to Pearl.
(3) I thought maybe the DOW % didn't update until the start of the allied impulse.
(4) But at the start of this impulse it remained at 20%.
(5) What am I missing?
(6) Well, it turns out that the 8 SCS (6 BBs + 2 CAs, that part's ok) each must have a first cycle cost of 2 BPs (that part isn't for the 2 USN CAs).
(7) The 2 USN CAs, each have a 1st cycle cost of 1 BP; so that was (hopefully) what I was missing.
(8) So this impulse the US will move 2 more BBs, for a total of 8 BBs, 2 CVs & 2 CAs, out to Pearl.
(9) And I'm confident that that'll do the trick (i.e., remove +2 penalty for not having the require fleet at Pearl Harbor and raise US DOW chance vs Japan to 40%).
(10) It's amazing, or maybe it isn't, I keep making these rule mistakes; good thing I have MWIF enforcing the rules!
Why is the Fleet At Pearl Harbor?
Active WAR.
(1) I noticed this last turn after moving 1 CV & 1 CA to Pearl Harbor for a total of 6 USN BBs, 2 CVs, 2 CAs.
(2) The DOW vs Japan didn't change; it remained at 20% instead to going up to 40% after I moved the required fleet out to Pearl.
(3) I thought maybe the DOW % didn't update until the start of the allied impulse.
(4) But at the start of this impulse it remained at 20%.
(5) What am I missing?
(6) Well, it turns out that the 8 SCS (6 BBs + 2 CAs, that part's ok) each must have a first cycle cost of 2 BPs (that part isn't for the 2 USN CAs).
(7) The 2 USN CAs, each have a 1st cycle cost of 1 BP; so that was (hopefully) what I was missing.
(8) So this impulse the US will move 2 more BBs, for a total of 8 BBs, 2 CVs & 2 CAs, out to Pearl.
(9) And I'm confident that that'll do the trick (i.e., remove +2 penalty for not having the require fleet at Pearl Harbor and raise US DOW chance vs Japan to 40%).
(10) It's amazing, or maybe it isn't, I keep making these rule mistakes; good thing I have MWIF enforcing the rules!
Why is the Fleet At Pearl Harbor?
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- 07-AL-Active-WAR-USA.png (26.46 KiB) Viewed 163 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #7. Impulse Planning.
CW.
(1) With a 28% chance that this will be the last impulse of the turn that the allies get, the CW wishes to ensure two things
(a) full production, meaning 7 CPs knocked out of the Faeroes Gap earlier in the turn must be replaced.
(b) denying the Becher (Algerian) Coal RP to Italy.
(2) Looking at the spare CP situation, even with Frances 2 spare CPs, the CW needs to use both naval moves to replace the 7 CPs knocked out of the Faeroes Gap.
(3) This means that the allies will NOT be able to replace the lost East Med supply CP this impulse.
(4) They will just have to risk the 28% chance, which if it materializes isn't that great of an issue.
(5) On the upside there's a 72% chance of getting another impulse and replacing the East Med Supply CP.
(6) 2 of the 3 CWs (combine) land moves are needed to "responsibly" deny the Italians of the Becher Coal RP.
(7) When they make their LMs, I think you'll see what I mean.
(8) The 3rd land move will go to CW forces in East Africa.
(9) This impulse will also be a good impulse for the RAF to carry out strategic bombing raids against Germany.
(10) Bomber Harris planners noted that the Red factory in Lyons is undefended.
(11) There's a Hampton bomber wing at an air field just southeast of London right now being briefing for a daylight, extended range raid against Lyons.
(12) The expected kill of the raid is 0.5 BPs and carries NO risk.
(13) Harris' staff also considered the Whitley wing against either Lille, Paris or Hamburg.
(14) Unfortunately for the Whitley wing all three targets are defended.
(15) Against Lille or Paris; a night raid had a 48% of getting through, which gave an expected target destruction of only 0.18 BP.
(16) There was also an additional 0.11 BP (for a total of 0.29 BP) of destruction from the risk to the defending German fighter and PIL.
(17) However; the risk to the Whitley and crew (i.e., PIL) was 0.92 BP.
(18) This gave a risk/reward "delta" of -0.62 BPs; which by most standards isn't good.
(19) A night & extended range raid against Hamburg (2 fac), gave an expected total kill of 0.22, with an expected loss of 0.92 or risk/reward of -0.7 BP, which is worse than for Lille (or Paris).
(20) Any unescorted raid with the Whitely vs fighter defended target is a no go.
(21) The best option for the Whitely is to rebase to Dover along with an RAF fighter wing (which they'll do this impulse) so the Whitley can fly escorted vs Lille.
(22) The Hampton extend range, daylight raid against an undefended Lyons is the only strategic bombing raid that the RAF will conduct this impulse.
Spare CPs (organized & in port).
Active War.
CW.
(1) With a 28% chance that this will be the last impulse of the turn that the allies get, the CW wishes to ensure two things
(a) full production, meaning 7 CPs knocked out of the Faeroes Gap earlier in the turn must be replaced.
(b) denying the Becher (Algerian) Coal RP to Italy.
(2) Looking at the spare CP situation, even with Frances 2 spare CPs, the CW needs to use both naval moves to replace the 7 CPs knocked out of the Faeroes Gap.
(3) This means that the allies will NOT be able to replace the lost East Med supply CP this impulse.
(4) They will just have to risk the 28% chance, which if it materializes isn't that great of an issue.
(5) On the upside there's a 72% chance of getting another impulse and replacing the East Med Supply CP.
(6) 2 of the 3 CWs (combine) land moves are needed to "responsibly" deny the Italians of the Becher Coal RP.
(7) When they make their LMs, I think you'll see what I mean.
(8) The 3rd land move will go to CW forces in East Africa.
(9) This impulse will also be a good impulse for the RAF to carry out strategic bombing raids against Germany.
(10) Bomber Harris planners noted that the Red factory in Lyons is undefended.
(11) There's a Hampton bomber wing at an air field just southeast of London right now being briefing for a daylight, extended range raid against Lyons.
(12) The expected kill of the raid is 0.5 BPs and carries NO risk.
(13) Harris' staff also considered the Whitley wing against either Lille, Paris or Hamburg.
(14) Unfortunately for the Whitley wing all three targets are defended.
(15) Against Lille or Paris; a night raid had a 48% of getting through, which gave an expected target destruction of only 0.18 BP.
(16) There was also an additional 0.11 BP (for a total of 0.29 BP) of destruction from the risk to the defending German fighter and PIL.
(17) However; the risk to the Whitley and crew (i.e., PIL) was 0.92 BP.
(18) This gave a risk/reward "delta" of -0.62 BPs; which by most standards isn't good.
(19) A night & extended range raid against Hamburg (2 fac), gave an expected total kill of 0.22, with an expected loss of 0.92 or risk/reward of -0.7 BP, which is worse than for Lille (or Paris).
(20) Any unescorted raid with the Whitely vs fighter defended target is a no go.
(21) The best option for the Whitely is to rebase to Dover along with an RAF fighter wing (which they'll do this impulse) so the Whitley can fly escorted vs Lille.
(22) The Hampton extend range, daylight raid against an undefended Lyons is the only strategic bombing raid that the RAF will conduct this impulse.
Spare CPs (organized & in port).
- 07-AL-Atlantic-Spare-CPs.png (37.55 KiB) Viewed 158 times
- 07-AL-Active-WAR-CW.png (32.79 KiB) Viewed 158 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #7. Impulse Planning.
Nationalist.
(1) Chiang & 8th inf army will hold fast in Chengtu and hope for the best.
(2) Hope isn't much of a strategy but that's all Chiang has left for that (SVR) sector!
(3) In central/northern China, the 2nd cav corps supported by the 20th (Res) Garr army will isolated the flipped Nagoya MIL army.
Active NAT WAR Directives.
CCP.
(4) The CCP will move their cav corps in the north supported by the Lanchow MIL army to threaten to liberate Taiyuan.
Nationalist.
(1) Chiang & 8th inf army will hold fast in Chengtu and hope for the best.
(2) Hope isn't much of a strategy but that's all Chiang has left for that (SVR) sector!
(3) In central/northern China, the 2nd cav corps supported by the 20th (Res) Garr army will isolated the flipped Nagoya MIL army.
Active NAT WAR Directives.
- 07-AL-Active-WAR-NAT.png (14.43 KiB) Viewed 157 times
(4) The CCP will move their cav corps in the north supported by the Lanchow MIL army to threaten to liberate Taiyuan.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #7. Impulse Planning.
USSR.
(1) The USSR takes a combine in order to send their subs out to attack Japanese convoys in the China, and possibly South China Sea.
(2) They will also fly their NAV Gp out into the Sea of Japan in hopes of bagging, or at least damaging, a Japanese warship.
(3) In the air, Japan will fly a daylight bombing raid against the undefended blue factory in Sapporo.
(4) This raid will be uncontested (i.e., carries no risk) and has an expected kill (or target destroyed) value of 0.6 BP (which is the risk/reward value too).
(5) Both night and daylight bombing raids against multiple factory but fighter defended cities were consider too.
(6) A night raid vs Hiroshima had an expected target kill of 0.27 BP, Jp fighter kill of 0.2 BP (for 0.47 BP total), an expected loss of 0.67 BP and a risk/reward of -0.2 BP.
(7) A daylight raid vs Hiroshima had expected target kill of 0.27 BP (same as night); but, expected Jp fighter kill of 0.5 BP (or 0.77 BP total), an expected loss o 1.44 BP and a risk/reward of -0.66 BP!
(8) Clearly the uncontested raid against a single factory city vs a contested one against a multi factory city is MUCH better.
(9) On land, in addition to giving 2 of 5 LMs to the CCP, the Soviets will carry out a blitz against Yamashita & the flipped IJA garrison army NE of Port Arthur.
(10) The blitz carries a 49% chance of loss (45% mot div, 4% mot div & Sib corps) but also has a big potential payoff even with a 42% PWIN.
(11) There's a 19% of a breakthrough & thus exploitation to capture Port Arthur.
(12) There's even a 2.3% chance of destroying Yamashita's HQ-I.
Attack Planning.
Active WAR Directives.
USSR.
(1) The USSR takes a combine in order to send their subs out to attack Japanese convoys in the China, and possibly South China Sea.
(2) They will also fly their NAV Gp out into the Sea of Japan in hopes of bagging, or at least damaging, a Japanese warship.
(3) In the air, Japan will fly a daylight bombing raid against the undefended blue factory in Sapporo.
(4) This raid will be uncontested (i.e., carries no risk) and has an expected kill (or target destroyed) value of 0.6 BP (which is the risk/reward value too).
(5) Both night and daylight bombing raids against multiple factory but fighter defended cities were consider too.
(6) A night raid vs Hiroshima had an expected target kill of 0.27 BP, Jp fighter kill of 0.2 BP (for 0.47 BP total), an expected loss of 0.67 BP and a risk/reward of -0.2 BP.
(7) A daylight raid vs Hiroshima had expected target kill of 0.27 BP (same as night); but, expected Jp fighter kill of 0.5 BP (or 0.77 BP total), an expected loss o 1.44 BP and a risk/reward of -0.66 BP!
(8) Clearly the uncontested raid against a single factory city vs a contested one against a multi factory city is MUCH better.
(9) On land, in addition to giving 2 of 5 LMs to the CCP, the Soviets will carry out a blitz against Yamashita & the flipped IJA garrison army NE of Port Arthur.
(10) The blitz carries a 49% chance of loss (45% mot div, 4% mot div & Sib corps) but also has a big potential payoff even with a 42% PWIN.
(11) There's a 19% of a breakthrough & thus exploitation to capture Port Arthur.
(12) There's even a 2.3% chance of destroying Yamashita's HQ-I.
Attack Planning.
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Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #7. The Pacific (USA).
- 07-AL-Pacific-USA-CL.png (13.28 KiB) Viewed 125 times
- 07-AL-Pacific-Fleet-at-Pearl.png (562.5 KiB) Viewed 125 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #7. Med.
Combat Logs.
West Med. No Search, No Combat.
Map.
Combat Logs.
- 07-AL-Med-CL.png (20.72 KiB) Viewed 124 times
- 07-AL-Med-West-Med-NS-NC.png (198.61 KiB) Viewed 124 times
- 07-AL-Med.png (1.85 MiB) Viewed 124 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #7. West Africa.
- 07-AL-West-Africa-CL.png (24.76 KiB) Viewed 121 times
- 07-AL-West-Africa.png (1.42 MiB) Viewed 121 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #7. Europe.
Combat Logs.
Western Front.
Eastern Front.
Strategic Bombing Raid. Lyons, France.
Map.
Combat Logs.
Western Front.
- 07-AL-Western-CL.png (18.34 KiB) Viewed 121 times
- 07-AL-Eastern-CL.png (7.08 KiB) Viewed 121 times
- 07-AL-Western-STRAT-Lyons.png (401.24 KiB) Viewed 121 times
- 07-AL-Europe.png (2.84 MiB) Viewed 121 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #7. Battle of the Atlantic (BOA).
Combat Logs.
CW Production (Post CP Line Fixes)
(1) Took some "advance" game file editing to get a route from Canada RP -> US East Coast -> Canadian Coast -> Demark Straights -> Faeroes Gap -> UK Factory.
(2) This editing allowed me to "access" MWIF functionality available in earlier versions but lost somewhere on the upgrade (version) line.
Combat Logs.
- 07-AL-Atlantic-CL.png (68.49 KiB) Viewed 118 times
(1) Took some "advance" game file editing to get a route from Canada RP -> US East Coast -> Canadian Coast -> Demark Straights -> Faeroes Gap -> UK Factory.
(2) This editing allowed me to "access" MWIF functionality available in earlier versions but lost somewhere on the upgrade (version) line.
- 07-AL-CW-Production-Route.png (172.41 KiB) Viewed 118 times
- 07-AL-CW-Production.png (238.08 KiB) Viewed 118 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1942. Allied #7. The Atlantic.
Faeroes Gap.
Faeroes Gap.
- 07-AL-Atlantic-Faeroes-GAP-NS.png (196.19 KiB) Viewed 113 times
- 07-AL-Atlantic-Faeroes-GAP-NC-1.png (199.18 KiB) Viewed 113 times
- 07-AL-Atlantic-Faeroes-GAP-NC-1b.png (158.76 KiB) Viewed 113 times
- 07-AL-Atlantic-Faeroes-GAP-NC-1c.png (148.72 KiB) Viewed 113 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #7. Pacific (USSR).
Sea of Japan.
Sea of Japan.
- 07-AL-Pacific-USSR-Sea-of-Japan-CL.png (27.87 KiB) Viewed 113 times
- 07-AL-Pacific-Sea-of-Japan-NC-1.png (319.79 KiB) Viewed 113 times
- 07-AL-Pacific-Sea-of-Japan-NC-1c.png (225.71 KiB) Viewed 113 times
- 07-AL-Pacific-Sea-of-Japan-NC-1d.png (195.9 KiB) Viewed 113 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 12. Jul/Aug 1941. Allied #7. Pacific (USSR).
China Sea.
Strategic Bombing (Tokyo).
China Sea.
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- 07-AL-Pacific-China-Sea-NC-1.png (348.73 KiB) Viewed 113 times
- 07-AL-Pacific-STRAT-Tokyo-CL.png (12.21 KiB) Viewed 113 times
- 07-AL-Pacific-STRAT-Tokyo.png (377.65 KiB) Viewed 113 times
Ronnie