Missile hit ratio

[Have]

Boy are my naval aviators and ship missile operators in need of some Top Gun training or what?
I'm playing Operation Bass Drum, where US Navy is fighting against Iran in 2017. After couple of hours of fighting the Losses & Expenditures panel has these numbers:

Expenditures:
124x AIM-120D AMRAAM P3I.4
19x AIM-9X Sidewinder
36x RIM-174A ERAM SM-6MR Blk I
27x RIM-162A ESSM
13x RIM-66M-2 SM-2MR Blk IIIA
1x RIM-66M-5 SM-2MR Blk IIIB

Iran Air Force Losses:
21x MiG-29M2 Fulcrum C
5x J-7IIH Fishbed
6x MiG-29 Fulcrum A
4x J-10A
3x F-14A Tomcat [F-14AM]
2x P-3F Orion

So 18.6% probability of kill. Air-to-Air kill ratio is something like 5:1 and that is by manually eliminating most of the stupid mistakes the AI does.

Luckily the opponent does not do much better, he has 13.6% Pk with his missiles. I wish the game would keep statistics by weapon type. I am pretty sure the AMRAAM does not have even 10% Pk. It seems that every opponent gets a decoy in the air (20% chance to seduce the sensor), defensive jammer on (even though the game does not indicate it in any way (~5% chance to spoof sensor) and then they always seem to get maximum evasive maneouvers putting the final probability of hit to somewhere around 25%, according to the game logs.

Maybe what is lacking is some pilot skill factor since it seems that every plane is piloted by a pilot of equal (maximum) capacity?

[Dimitris]

That, and reducing agility in successive missile evasions since every dodge costs energy.

[Primarchx]

OBD is meant to be hard. Those MiG-29M2s are some of the most difficult aircraft in the game to shoot down (good ECM/decoys + awesome Agility). There are alternatives to splashing them plane-by-plane, though.

However there are certainly improvements that can be made to the air combat model which should temper the effect of Agility.

[Have]

Yeah, OpBD is especially hard because of the 50p point penalty of every lost F-35. So far, I have lost 4 out of 6. Every time same story. I used them as CAP fighterss to help out the hornets. When they attack an enemy, they go head on, fire the AMRAAMS (which almost always miss) and then close in for Sidewinder range. This allows the enemy fighters to fire their missiles and get some easy F-35 kills. Only way to protect the fighters is to manually plot waypoints away from the enemies for them so that they don't get in close. Still, when there is a lot going on, you cannot sheperd every single plane.

Basically most of the time is spent fighting the stupid AI. It gets pretty frustrating after a while when you have to watch over everything - Can't allow automatic RTB because then you can't control speed, can't allow to automatically engage enemy fighters because of needless losses when closing in, can't allow automatic SAM fire because of excess missile consumption etc. etc.

Also, based on the logs of weapon hits, it seems that the F-35B does not even have a defensive jammer.

I like the game and the core idea, but playing it can be so frustrating.

[john688]

Does defensive maneouvering take into account target aspect and energy, or is it just a set die roll for each aircraft.?

[Primarchx]

Probably time to switch tactics and methods. Last time I played OBD the Iranians didn't see my first aircraft until I had Super Hornets over Cha Bahar destroying the airfield's ability to conduct flight ops.

ORIGINAL: Have

Yeah, OpBD is especially hard because of the 50p point penalty of every lost F-35. So far, I have lost 4 out of 6. Every time same story. I used them as CAP fighterss to help out the hornets. When they attack an enemy, they go head on, fire the AMRAAMS (which almost always miss) and then close in for Sidewinder range. This allows the enemy fighters to fire their missiles and get some easy F-35 kills. Only way to protect the fighters is to manually plot waypoints away from the enemies for them so that they don't get in close. Still, when there is a lot going on, you cannot sheperd every single plane.

Basically most of the time is spent fighting the stupid AI. It gets pretty frustrating after a while when you have to watch over everything - Can't allow automatic RTB because then you can't control speed, can't allow to automatically engage enemy fighters because of needless losses when closing in, can't allow automatic SAM fire because of excess missile consumption etc. etc.

Also, based on the logs of weapon hits, it seems that the F-35B does not even have a defensive jammer.

I like the game and the core idea, but playing it can be so frustrating.

[Primarchx]

Not yet. There's been a lot of discussion about expanding the air combat model to take things like what you suggest into account.

ORIGINAL: john688

Does defensive maneouvering take into account target aspect and energy, or is it just a set die roll for each aircraft.?

[john688]

OK, so when we see the AI appearing to try and beam the missile is this just cosmetic. ?

[Primarchx]

To a degree. At best the aircraft is not closing with the missile which may result in it running out of gas before hitting. It's also accurately depicting aircraft trying to avoid a missile and may do things like lose radar guidance on a SARH missiles it's guiding.

ORIGINAL: john688

OK, so when we see the AI appearing to try and beam the missile is this just cosmetic. ?

[Blu3wolf]

ORIGINAL: Have

Boy are my naval aviators and ship missile operators in need of some Top Gun training or what?
I'm playing Operation Bass Drum, where US Navy is fighting against Iran in 2017. After couple of hours of fighting the Losses & Expenditures panel has these numbers:

Expenditures:
124x AIM-120D AMRAAM P3I.4
19x AIM-9X Sidewinder
36x RIM-174A ERAM SM-6MR Blk I
27x RIM-162A ESSM
13x RIM-66M-2 SM-2MR Blk IIIA
1x RIM-66M-5 SM-2MR Blk IIIB

Iran Air Force Losses:
21x MiG-29M2 Fulcrum C
5x J-7IIH Fishbed
6x MiG-29 Fulcrum A
4x J-10A
3x F-14A Tomcat [F-14AM]
2x P-3F Orion

So 18.6% probability of kill. Air-to-Air kill ratio is something like 5:1 and that is by manually eliminating most of the stupid mistakes the AI does.

Luckily the opponent does not do much better, he has 13.6% Pk with his missiles. I wish the game would keep statistics by weapon type. I am pretty sure the AMRAAM does not have even 10% Pk. It seems that every opponent gets a decoy in the air (20% chance to seduce the sensor), defensive jammer on (even though the game does not indicate it in any way (~5% chance to spoof sensor) and then they always seem to get maximum evasive maneouvers putting the final probability of hit to somewhere around 25%, according to the game logs.

Maybe what is lacking is some pilot skill factor since it seems that every plane is piloted by a pilot of equal (maximum) capacity?

have you had a look at historical data for Pk? You are above average compared to history.

the delta slammer is new tech, so no idea how that should fare, but given what it is being shot at... I am hardly surprised.

ORIGINAL: Primarchx

To a degree. At best the aircraft is not closing with the missile which may result in it running out of gas before hitting.

pretty much all missiles that intercept their targets run out of gas first...

[john688]

Thanks

[Dimitris]

ORIGINAL: john688
OK, so when we see the AI appearing to try and beam the missile is this just cosmetic. ?

No.

[Primarchx]

I've seen the same %hit with the same quoted variables regardless of beaming or not. What does beaming do?

ORIGINAL: Sunburn

ORIGINAL: john688
OK, so when we see the AI appearing to try and beam the missile is this just cosmetic. ?

No.

[MR_BURNS2]

ORIGINAL: Primarchx

I've seen the same %hit with the same quoted variables regardless of beaming or not. What does beaming do?

ORIGINAL: Sunburn

ORIGINAL: john688
OK, so when we see the AI appearing to try and beam the missile is this just cosmetic. ?

No.

It forces the missile to bleed more energy because it has to turn hard for the new intercept course and it has a longer way to fly, the missiles energy will be reduced greatly in the endgame.

[Temple]

ORIGINAL: MR_BURNS2
It forces the missile to bleed more energy because it has to turn hard for the new intercept course and it has a longer way to fly, the missiles energy will be reduced greatly in the endgame.

This takes me back to the late 1970s and early 1980s when I digesting Fighter Combat: Tactics and Maneuvering by Robert L. Shaw cover to cover so I could get a better understanding of how to play Air War Modern Tactical Air Combat by SPI a bit better. Things sure have changed...

[Dimitris]

ORIGINAL: MR_BURNS2

ORIGINAL: Primarchx

I've seen the same %hit with the same quoted variables regardless of beaming or not. What does beaming do?

ORIGINAL: Sunburn



No.

It forces the missile to bleed more energy because it has to turn hard for the new intercept course and it has a longer way to fly, the missiles energy will be reduced greatly in the endgame.

There are also other factors involved, related to seeker tech generation & sensitivity.

[NefariousKoel]

Comparing Weapon Expenditures directly to Losses doesn't factor in something extremely important: the tendency of the 'helper AI' to fire multiple missiles at one target (aka ripple firing).

If one of them hits, the other follow-on weapons in the same volley will miss no matter what. So the ratios aren't going to be right unless you're do a ton of 1v1 manual firing of single weapons for a good sampling.

[rockmedic109]

ORIGINAL: Temple

ORIGINAL: MR_BURNS2
It forces the missile to bleed more energy because it has to turn hard for the new intercept course and it has a longer way to fly, the missiles energy will be reduced greatly in the endgame.

This takes me back to the late 1970s and early 1980s when I digesting Fighter Combat: Tactics and Maneuvering by Robert L. Shaw cover to cover so I could get a better understanding of how to play Air War Modern Tactical Air Combat by SPI a bit better. Things sure have changed...

That brings back a memory! Been a long time since I've thought about that game.

[Dimitris]

ORIGINAL: NefariousKoel
Comparing Weapon Expenditures directly to Losses doesn't factor in something extremely important: the tendency of the 'helper AI' to fire multiple missiles at one target (aka ripple firing).

If one of them hits, the other follow-on weapons in the same volley will miss no matter what. So the ratios aren't going to be right unless you're do a ton of 1v1 manual firing of single weapons for a good sampling.

That's very much true. Of course in combat, firing single means if the opponent dodges that single shot you're in a world of hurt.

[Blu3wolf]

ORIGINAL: Sunburn

ORIGINAL: NefariousKoel
Comparing Weapon Expenditures directly to Losses doesn't factor in something extremely important: the tendency of the 'helper AI' to fire multiple missiles at one target (aka ripple firing).

If one of them hits, the other follow-on weapons in the same volley will miss no matter what. So the ratios aren't going to be right unless you're do a ton of 1v1 manual firing of single weapons for a good sampling.

That's very much true. Of course in combat, firing single means if the opponent dodges that single shot you're in a world of hurt.

I would argue that that doesnt really come up too much in BVR missile combat... typically, you would both have fired at least one shot, unless one aircraft managed to stay outside Raero and still get a shot off.

after one or both parties have fired shots, you tend to be worrying about defeating any inbound missile shots... unless well outside the applicable MAR for the fighter type.

If you have an A pole advantage, and fire one shot, forcing the other guy to turn cold, even if he dodges that, there is no "world of hurt"... after dodging, he should be nose cold and in a WEZ. perfect time to fire another shot, no?

still, with all that I would point out that frequently you do NOT have an A pole advantage, and typically you would launch more than one missile.

hmm. Thinking about WVR combat, it doesnt appear to apply either. obviously for WVR you are trying to put the opponent in a WEZ and once they get there, they should stay there. even if they dodge a missile or gunshot, the only way they can get out of a defensive position is if you screw up, or another party enters the fight (technically a screw up, though not necessarily yours....)