Ok, I know it should be “an historic” in the title . . . let’s just chalk that up to artistic license and move on, shall we?
I’ve agreed to a PBEM campaign with jdsrae, who will be taking the Japanese side in the stock scenario 1 grand campaign. The twist in our little slice of WItPAE is the historical first turn is off, and Dec 7th surprise is on. There are no house rules, and we’ve agreed this will be a “free play ahistoric game with the only rules being what the 1s and 0s allow.” My opponent is going to publish an AAR, and I’ve decided to as well, tho it will be fairly bare-bones, and the pace of game turns will be fairly slow.
The big question, is what the hell do I do now knowing that the baseline assumptions I’d normally use to prepare short term goals and long term strategy are out the window? The opportunities are as numerous as the risks. I’ve run a few tests with our game settings on scenario 1 using HTH mode fretting about what he can do with the KB, but realized I just have to make a plan and roll the dice, knowing that “no battle plan survives first contact with the enemy.”
I’ll start some detailed thoughts and plans by region tomorrow.
My overall “grand strategy,” such as it is, will be fairly standard: destroy and interdict the supply of fuel and oil being moved to the Japanese Home Islands. Because our game is free play and ahistorical, I’m tempted to try and re-conquer the DEI once I’m able to mount a counter-offensive. I’ve never tried that approach, and that novelty is attractive, but the thought of trying to move big Allied invasion forces through those confined waters gives me the heebie-jeebies. If I can hold Northern Oz (more on that later), I’d rather use that as a base for strategic bombing and diversionary raids.
My general strategic goals will be: CentPac – aim for Luzon, cut off the S. China Sea. SoPac – hold US/Oz supply line open, harass DEI, possible counter-offensive. China – avoid the disaster of my last PBEM match, tie up and wear down as much Japanese Army as possible, India/Burma – hold Burma road open as long as possible, begin push overland East as soon as possible. That’s enough for the moment. Time will tell how much goes out the window.
Immediate plans & assumptions by region.
CONTINENTAL US
I don’t expect my opponent to strike or invade here, but have to recognize it as a possibility. My air forces will be put on high alert (fighters 100% CAP day one, then 60-80%), as much Nav Search as possible, bombers on naval attack. What surface forces I have in place, I will sortie – led by ASW forces just in case. I'll risk not moving out cargo, tankers and auxiliaries, and start loading them up, destinations TBD once I get a handle on where Japan is focusing. ASW will be an issue soon, I suspect. I’ll move ground forces to cover key ports, especially towards Portland & Seattle.
If nothing materializes, I’ll shift the air forces into training mode. I’m still waffling on what to do with Sara. Her escorts are very weak. I may wait a day or two, and then put her out to sea, adding Marine fighters to fill out her weak compliment. Assuming enough CA’s and DD’s survive @ PH, I could have her rendezvous with them, and send the 4-pipers back to SD. She could then meet up w/Lex and E if they are still afloat. 😊
Wherever possible I will convert AKs to AE/AKE, build 10-12 AGs, and begin converting the 4-stacker DDs to APD two at a time. I will also transfer LCUs and air units via off map movement to Cape Town and then to India (or Oz) depending on the developing situation.
CANADA/ALASKA
I think attack/invasion of Canada is unlikely, but there is a slightly higher probability of invasion of Canada north of Vancouver since I wouldn’t get the bonus infantry. I don’t have much to work with here, however. Air forces will go on high alert as CONUS. He may get frisky in Alaska – again, I can’t do much in the short term. I’ll beef up Dutch Harbor and Kodiak as much as I can, and probably set up a base in Cold Harbor. I’d like to have Adak available as a forward sub base, but I won’t put any troops that far out for some time.
HAWAII / CENT PAC
Must hold: Pearl Harbor
Like to hold: Midway, Johnston, Palmyra, Canton, Xmas, Pago Pago
Will give up: Wake, Baker
Will he attack Pearl, or won’t he? I’ll assume he will. I’ll put fighters on 100% cap, PBY’s on 100% search w/bombs (in case they come across subs), and maybe one squadron on night search w/torps. All bombers will be 100% naval attack, low-level. Regardless if the KB (or some version) show up, I expect there will still be a swarm of subs around Pearl. I will run local minesweeping, and send several ASW squadrons made up of minsweepers etc to disrupt his subs. I will sortie one surf combat TF w/BB Maryland and WV, some CA’s and DD’s (following an ASW screen) to the SW to hopefully meet up w/the CV’s and head SW to cause mischief – maybe to the DEI eventually pending fuel. I will send most everybody else to the SE or due E – predicable, but seems sensible. I’m of one mind to keep them close to Pearl and under the CAP umbrella, but I think the subs are the greater danger. I may send a fast surf combat unit to Midway in case he still want’s to get aggressive up there.
I’d really like to hold Midway as a near future forward sub base, Johnston (possible S-boat base), Palmyra, Canton and Pago Pago as early warning, and Christmas as a Oz/NZ convoy fuel stop.
As to my CVs – hmmmm. I’ve run about 10 different ideas around, but I think I’ll take one from Obvert’s book and head them SW (looping first to the SE to avoid detection) to cause mischief and disruption possibly as far as the DEI. I’m neither as experienced or skilled as Obvert, so I’ll likely play a bit more conservative game. I like the idea of them linking up w/Sara from SD, but I will probably hold her back to cover troop reinforcements heading to my line of communications defenses.
Of course, the KB could end up right on top of my CVs, and dash this plan to bits. Time will tell.
More to come later, as I’ve got a late summer cold which is not fun at all.
I don't think it is possible to reach West Coast with magical move on day one. Probably a week before any ship can get there. And against KB your bombers will achieve nothing.
No reason to group your CVs, they will lose against full KB anyway. Better to keep them separated in different places, and strike where KB is not.
Move all your available fighters to San Diego, form a TF with Saratoga (but keep her in the port hex) and have as many fighters as possible there on 100% CAP
if there are no house rules, then there are no house rules and that is a prime target.
I don't think it is possible to reach West Coast with magical move on day one. Probably a week before any ship can get there. And against KB your bombers will achieve nothing.
No reason to group your CVs, they will lose against full KB anyway. Better to keep them separated in different places, and strike where KB is not.
Remember, that there are two Raiders SE of Fiji.
I have had success against KB using PH's Cats with torpedoes. KBs fighters are split, with some escorting strikes, some doing high CAP and very few on very low CAP. I also sent in every level bomber I had to help use up the CAP. KB doesn't have the fighter numbers to cover everything and their flak is relatively weak. I lost about 40% of my Cats and bombers but KB had three torpedoed carriers and two torpedoed battleships, which subsequent SCTFs and subs enjoyed munching on.
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
Move all your available fighters to San Diego, form a TF with Saratoga (but keep her in the port hex) and have as many fighters as possible there on 100% CAP
if there are no house rules, then there are no house rules and that is a prime target.
San Diego has some aircraft factories, but LA is the main aircraft industry center. LA also has a better cluster of airfields to mass the air force on. Put Divisions in each of the key cities, including Seattle, regiments in nearby locations and build forts.
After about a month there are enough reinforcements arriving and forts built to start shipping out to SOPAC and NORPAC as far as Kodiak Island. (DH does not have viable airfield capacity and you don't have enough to build Umnak right away).
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
I don't think it is possible to reach West Coast with magical move on day one. Probably a week before any ship can get there. And against KB your bombers will achieve nothing.
No reason to group your CVs, they will lose against full KB anyway. Better to keep them separated in different places, and strike where KB is not.
Remember, that there are two Raiders SE of Fiji.
I ran a test over the weekend and he can get the KB in range to attack Seattle/Vancouver on day one, SF by day two. I haven't run a LA/SD test yet (maybe tonight). Invasion forces will take much longer to reach the West Coast. I'll probably keep the region on high alert well into Jan.
Point taken on grouping my CVs. I'm re-reading some AARs and see the risk early on. I may have one feint NE, maybe raid the Marshalls or loop around and approach any Gilberts amphib units from the S. The other loop SE (meet up w/a small surface TF from Pearl?) then SW and head for the antipodes.
I'll have to be wary of raiders for quite some time, and will ask a question on convoys later.
quote:
ORIGINAL: Encircled
Move all your available fighters to San Diego, form a TF with Saratoga (but keep her in the port hex) and have as many fighters as possible there on 100% CAP
if there are no house rules, then there are no house rules and that is a prime target.
San Diego has some aircraft factories, but LA is the main aircraft industry center. LA also has a better cluster of airfields to mass the air force on. Put Divisions in each of the key cities, including Seattle, regiments in nearby locations and build forts.
After about a month there are enough reinforcements arriving and forts built to start shipping out to SOPAC and NORPAC as far as Kodiak Island. (DH does not have viable airfield capacity and you don't have enough to build Umnak right away).
I will definitely have all the major cities from Seattle to San Diego well garrisoned and covered by fighters and bombers ASAP (cream of the 1941 crop [8D]). LA/SD in particular.
All great advice fellas! Keep it coming!
My opponent emailed me this AM and said he expects to have his opening turn done by the weekend, so I have all week to ponder plans before I dive in.
I think inqistor's comment about the AMC raiders in SOPAC was a hint to use your carriers to hunt them down. It's hard to intercept them with surface combat vessels because they have aircraft to scout for them, but carriers can get their DBs in range pretty easily.
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
Must Hold: Aus: Perth-Sydney-Brisbane line, New Zealand: all.
Would Like to Hold: Darwin, Cook Island, Brisbane to Cooktown, New Caledonia, Fiji, Samoa Isl
Will give up: Rabaul, Kaiveng
Although we are playing a “ahistorical” game, some historical plans and assumptions still apply: namely, the critical importance of keeping the supply lines to Australia and New Zealand open. To that end, I’ll be making a standard play here. As quickly as possible, I will begin beefing up defenses (both LCU and air groups) along the PagoPago-Suva-Noumea line. If my opponent makes strong moves to break this line early, I won’t be able to stop him, but will be aggressive as I can in counter attacks.
I’ll start re-forming divisions and sending them to critical points: Perth, Sydney, Brisbane. If possible, I’d like to pull the Aussie Brigades out of Singapore & the Lark Bn to re-form the 8th Div do defend Darwin, and eventually use in counter-offensives. I’ll move US air groups & LCU to Aus ASAP, and possibly pull some Aussie air groups from Singapore back to Oz in several hops.
As to Darwin, I’d obviously like to hold it – great sub base, future base for long range-bombing oil fields, etc. However, like just about anywhere, if the Japanese really make a push, I can’t stop them. I’ll still move fuel and supplies into Darwin from the DEI and some select auxiliaries so I can set up a quick base, but not too much as it’s a dead end for ships. The CT-Perth line is critical, so I’ll move some surface and ASW TF in that direction. Brisbane will be a key base especially if he pushes into Papua/New Guinea. As to the Solomons, we’ll see . . . again, the Allies drew the line there for a reason, and I’ll have to see what he does or doesn’t do there early on.
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
Must Hold: n/a
Would Like to Hold: n/a
Will give up: all of it – Sir Robin in effect
For the PI, I will institute the Sir Robin tactic. Minsweepers and ASW to lead the naval exodus out of Manila harbor. DDs to head to Balikpapan to rendezvous w/other USN surface forces. Scatter AK’s like chaff, sending a few to supply bases in the PI, others pushing Oil/Fuel south. High value auxiliaries to run south then east heading for Oz. Maybe try and evac the Cebu base force (that old saw). PT boats to harass invasion forces in range.
I’ll send out a swarm of subs immediately, focusing the S-boats in the confined waters in the Sulu and Celebes Seas, Makassar Strait, etc. Fleet boats to harass Japanese ports (East China Sea), PI invasion forces and Cent Pac bases. Once the KB (or its equivalent) rears its head, I will do my best to swarm it with subs and use them to keep tabs on it. I’ll keep the subs based @ Manila as long as I can, then assign them to OZ and/or PH once Manila falls.
For the ground forces on Luzon, I’m planning on abandoning my usual “Iron Triangle” approach and pile everybody in to Manila for a last stand there. I’d leave a few speed bumps to the north, but pull everybody else back. Your thoughts O Hive Mind?
For the air forces I’m still pondering. I need to have some CAP in place during the evac, but the big question early on is what do I do with the Cats & B-17s? Do I immediately pull them out, or let them stay and peck away at Japanese forces to start? My initial thought is to pull them back immediately and avoid any losses on the initial Dec 7th raids. I’d move them mainly to Java, where the B-17s could be useful in particular if the Japanese make a quick grab and successfully take Palembang etc. From there I can disperse them to OZ and/or India.
IIRC there are two large air base units in the PI that can be bought out and flown out.
Most of the fighters can be bought out and staged out with multiple hops to Australia.
Yes, they withdraw so its a time limited PP investment, but they will give you a fighter force for Australia at a key time when little are available, filling a vital gap.
IIRC there are two large air base units in the PI that can be bought out and flown out.
Most of the fighters can be bought out and staged out with multiple hops to Australia.
Yes, they withdraw so its a time limited PP investment, but they will give you a fighter force for Australia at a key time when little are available, filling a vital gap.
Something to consider.
Good call. I didn't consider air-evac from the PI for key units. I've tried it in Rabaul in past games, but not there.
I've finally got Tracker up and running again, so now I have Excel sheets to help me plan, which is a huge relief.
Your fleet subs from Manlia can carry mines and then you can still use them to attempt to use their faulty MK-14 torps and shadow the KB if they appear. The mines are probably the most effective weapon they could deploy at this point of the war.
& the Lark Bn to re-form the 8th Div do defend Darwin
You'd be better off if you could get the rest out of Singers, or at least one brigade. Takes Australia a long time to rebuild units with their low number of replacement devices.
As to Darwin, I’d obviously like to hold it – great sub base, future base for long range-bombing oil fields, etc. However, like just about anywhere, if the Japanese really make a push, I can’t stop them.
See highlight. For that reason I wouldn't try. Its easy for Japan to isolate this site, and difficult for you to support it. You give up all your advantages and play against Japan's strength's. Personally I'd give it up for now and get it back later when Japan is at the end of her tether. Of course you do want to put up some resistance, but I'd use less important units to do the job.
Yes, they withdraw so its a time limited PP investment
...and for that reason I'm loath to buy out such units. Even as Japan I don't buy out units that'll withdraw. Too many units, not enough PP's. But that's just me, the call is obviously yours.
It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume
In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche
Your fleet subs from Manlia can carry mines and then you can still use them to attempt to use their faulty MK-14 torps and shadow the KB if they appear. The mines are probably the most effective weapon they could deploy at this point of the war.
Sneaky, sneaky.[:)] But I like it.[:D]
It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume
In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche
and pile everybody in to Manila for a last stand there.
I like Clark for its x3 terrain, and of course the fallback position of Bataan. Of course then you give up the small LI resup of Manila, but I'm not too sure it'll help much anyway. Of course your call. Just sayin'.
It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume
In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche
Your fleet subs from Manlia can carry mines and then you can still use them to attempt to use their faulty MK-14 torps and shadow the KB if they appear. The mines are probably the most effective weapon they could deploy at this point of the war.
Absolutely - I haven't said it specifically, but I always load up subs w/mines and leave nice little easter eggs for the Japanese. [;)]
That's one of my favorite features of Tracker is I can monitor my mine fields.
I got the first turn file over the weekend and have been chipping away at my initial orders. I’ve been moving East to West, and have completed Continental US/Canada, Alaska, Hawaii, Philippine Islands and have just about wrapped up Australia. Now for the fun part . . .
DEI
Must hold: n/a
Would like to hold: n/a
Will give up: n/a
This is where I think it is most likely my opponent will make an “ahistorical” push. Nothing surprising in this assumption as this is where the oil is after all. From a very general perspective my approach on land will be to pull back as much as possible to the major cities/bases – Soerabaja, Batavia, Palembang. The Dutch LCU’s aren’t much to speak of, but they’re what I have. I’ve never done the “fortress Palembang” approach and can’t quickly find any AAR’s where it was done. The starting LCU’s on Sumatra have a combined AV that is pretty low. What units do you move to Palembang to make it a fortress? The British 18th Div coming in from Cape Town? That seems the easy choice as I don’t have to spend scarce political points to buy them out. I suppose it will depend on how hot the action is in the Java Sea whether they land directly in Palembang or Oosthaven. I will send some Brit or Aussie cruisers to act as escorts either way.
As far as air forces go, I have already started pulling back two B-17D squadrons to Sorebaja. They can help w/naval search and can harass TFs. If Palembang, Balikpapan, etc fall quickly they can switch to strategic bombing and burn up some Oil. Some PBY’s and P-40s will join them shortly. The P-40s will eventually go to Oz, the bombers and PB’s to Oz and/or India. I’ll do all I can with the Dutch air forces to try and pick off a some Japanese ships.
I plan on moving Force Z south to cover Palembang. The US cruisers and 4-pipe DDs, along with the Dutch cruisers and DDs will form 2 TFs to cover Makassar Strait and the Celebes. I will consider all of these TFs as expendable and try to disrupt his moves South as much as possible. Of course, if the KB comes barreling though the area, they will have a tough time of it. I have the S-boats from the PI moving into the Celebes Sea, and will sortie all Dutch subs as well. They have reliable torps, so I will make sure to keep them at sea as much as possible, and in blue-water. They will fall back to Oz when Java falls.
In Malaya, I will have all major ground forces fall back to Singapore, leaving a few “speed bumps” along the Johore line. If he goes for a quick attack at Mersing, they’ll have to fight their way South. I will evac the Aussie brigades if possible.
BURMA
Must hold: n/a
Would like to hold: n/a
Will give up: n/a
Typical strategy here. Push as much supply as I can to Rangoon and hold it and the Burma road open as long as possible. I’ll re-form the 1st Burma Div in Pegu, and build up fortifications there. I’ll put up a fight at Moulmein. I’ll get the sea-borne LCUs into Rangoon ASAP and consolidated there to fight it out, tho if they get cut off, I will move them north to fight into India. In the past I’ve kept the AVG H-81s in Burma to help cover Rangoon, but eventually move them back into NW China.
INDIA
Must hold: Karachi
Would like to hold: Bombay, Madras, Calcutta, rail-line to Ledo
Will give up: Ceylon
While I don’t anticipate a direct amphib attack into India, I have to recognize the capability is there. Therefore, I will focus on building up fortifications and AV in Karachi & Bombay. Karachi is an obvious must hold to keep the oil flowing in from the Middle East. I’ll leave skeleton forces to cover garrison requirements so as to not leak VPs. If no overt moves happen by early ’42, I’ll begin moving forces towards the Burma/China border for future counter-offensives. I will also move in air forces and LCUs from China to train-up, and also bring in air groups and LCUs from ConUS as political points become available. I’ll move the British Fleet units from Ceylon to Bombay/Karachi to cover those vital ports until the danger of invasion seems to have gone. Early on I’ll also add to or provide escorts for the TFs moving troops to Rangoon.
CHINA
Help me Obi-HiveMind-Kenobi, you’re my only hope. I’ll do my China orders last, so any advice there is appreciated.
