Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99.

[rkr1958]

This is the axis thread for a 2-player game between Composer99, as the allies, and myself as the axis.

We are starting this adventure with MWiF 3.1.0, which at this time is the latest available public beta version.

Very little negotiation/discussion was needed to agree upon which optional rules to use. In fact, I pressed Composer99 for us to use the pro-allied optional, "Defensive Shore Bombardment" but he declined. He was gracious enough to agree to play with "Railway movement bonus" and "Breaking the Nazi-Soviet pact", which I believe are pro-axis. We also agreed to manually (i.e., house rule), if necessary, "USSR-Japan compulsory peace". I agreed not to use "Variable reorganization costs". Other than those rules, our starting position on optional rules matched exactly.

We both agreed that each would open a "private" thread to document and discuss this journey, each from our own unique point-of-view. As such, I wish to invite those of you who wish to act as an axis adviser or mentor to do so. Lord knows I can use all the help that I can get. However, in the spirit of fair play and good form, I would request that if you do plan to provide advice on strategy or tactics that, like me, you restrain from viewing, "rkr1958 vs Composer99 - Allied Thread". Alternately, if you plan to provide strategy or tactics advice to Composer99, I would respectively request that you stay out of this thread until game's end. Otherwise, I encourage any and all who wish to follow and/or comment on "non-competitive" aspects (e.g., rules) to do so fully and as they wish.

This will be a Play-by-Email (PBEM) game using WhatsApp for non-phasing discussion, decisions and reactions. We will not be using any die rolling service. For me, I will physically roll the dice (or die) and enter the result into the respective form. Literally rolling the dice, or die, versus using the game's pseudo random-number generation (which I believe is perfectly fine), just makes play of the game against a live opponent seem just that much more real.

In closing, if you've followed any of my numerous solo-historical AAR's before, this won't be one. I plan to play the game as a game and without consideration to the historical record and without character play.

Let the journey begin and I wish my opponent the best of luck. Let's have fun.

[rkr1958]

The obligatory list of (axis) units scrapped.

[rkr1958]

Italian Setup (1/4).

Italy is the first of the three axis powers (Italy-Japan-Germany) to setup. They setup after the US and USSR but before the CW and France. The below screen cap shows the situation after all sides have setup (i.e., after CW and France).

Italy for me is the hardest axis power to play. I always struggle with how best to employ them. I will cover over the next four posts my early-war plans for Italy.

1. I will use Italy to (attempt to) present a credible threat to France, but have no plans to DOW France unless an incredible opportunity requiring such presents itself. My intention is to create a threat in being in order to tie down as many French units as possible that could be used to defend or even counterattack against Germany.

2. While Italy will not DOW France, they will DOW the CW when (my) conditions are right. Either when it looks like the CW is setting up for a potentially devastating surprise attack on Italy or when an Italian surprise attack could be exploited to degrade the CW's position in the Med (e.g., loss of Malta).

If Malta isn't reinforced by an allied land unit then I plan to take Malta on the second axis impulse using the Italian 1st infantry division invading from an SCS. But I'm getting ahead of myself. And, most importantly, I need to verify this rule. Isn't Malta's notional strength of 1 reduced to 0 during a surprise impulse? If so, the invasion and capture of Malta would be automatic for an invasion from the 4-box. I'm pretty sure that's the case but I need confirmation.

3. Trieste. My plans for the Italian mech and mot setup there are for North Africa and a possible Italian push into Egypt to take or threaten to take the Suez canal (more on that later). Also, I just now noticed that I setup the three Italian subs in Trieste and not La Speiza as I intended. Oh well ...

4. I plan to build up the Italian sub fleet and coordinate them with German u-boats to go after allied convoys. Just wish I had setup the three Italian subs in La Spezia instead of Trieste!

[rkr1958]

Italian Setup (2/4).

5. I have no plans for Italy and French west North Africa. But, I don't want my opponent to know that so that's why I setup an Italian CP in the West Med (for supply) and have a threat in being with the Italian 1st infantry division in La Spezia.

6. Two Italian corps and two fort hexsides setup to discourage any though by the allies of going after Tripoli in the early game.

[Centuur]

You can invade Malta in the surprise impulse with a +21 if there are no land units there.

[rkr1958]

Italian Setup (3/4).

7. I setup strong Italian ground and air forces in Libya on the border with Egypt. As noted earlier I plan to reinforce these forces with an Italian mech and mot corps. The primary purpose is to act as a threat in being in order to tie down Wavell's HQ-A and any additional CW forces they can. Keeping Wavell in Egypt prevents the CW from bringing a second BEF, led by Wavell, to the defense of France. Whether or not Balbo and his forces are reinforced by the mech and/or mot, actually push into Egypt, remain a threat in being or are withdrawn remains to be seen. Though, I have no plans to pull them out early. I need to keep Wavell in Egypt. I can only do that if Italy remains a credible threat there.

[rkr1958]

Italian Setup (4/4).

7. I've position the Ethiopian MIL as a threat to take French Somaliland, though I have no plans for Italy to DOW France. This positioning is intended only every to be a threat in being, but my opponent doesn't know that.

8. I also setup an Italian CP in the 0-box of the Red Sea which means prior to war with the CW, the Italian infantry corps in Eiteria is in supply. I've position him as a threat to the Sudan. Even though once war between Italy and the CW happens, the corps will lose supply due to closing of the Suez Canal to Italy by the CW, this corps will be able to capture Sudan in two turns if CW doesn't react.

9. One thing I won't do is to send a transport into the Red Sea on the first impulse to pick up the Italian supply unit. To do so would prevent the Italians for declaring war on the CW on the second axis impulse if the Italians didn't want one of their two transports trapped forever in the Red Sea/East Africa.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

I will follow this AAR, good luck!

[warspite1]

Subscribed! Good to see you taking the plunge against a human opponent [:)]

[Majorball68]

Should use a die roller program. Not because your opponent may cheat but because there are lucky streaks you can get which may appear too lucky. I would rather not feel guilty for these lucky streaks by using a die roller which means both players will feel more comfortable and relaxed. There can be no question of wrong doing and more importantly no perception of any wrong doing.

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

You can invade Malta in the surprise impulse with a +21 if there are no land units there.

Thanks! That's what I thought but it's good to have it confirm.

ORIGINAL: Mayhemizer_slith

I will follow this AAR, good luck!

[:)] Thanks too!

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Subscribed! Good to see you taking the plunge against a human opponent [:)]

[:)] Thanks three!

ORIGINAL: Majorball68

Should use a die roller program. Not because your opponent may cheat but because there are lucky streaks you can get which may appear too lucky. I would rather not feel guilty for these lucky streaks by using a die roller which means both players will feel more comfortable and relaxed. There can be no question of wrong doing and more importantly no perception of any wrong doing.

Good point. For me personally it's more about the journey of a friendly game and taking the good luck along with the bad. But most importantly it's playing against an opponent, or opponents, who share the same outlook and whom I trust.

This AAR will include "copies" of the real-time (via WhatsApp) "in game" communications between my opponent and myself. These real-time communications will often include the die rolls as they happened as captured in WhatsApp.

A sampling taken from my first impulse:
(ax) I'm physically rolling the dice. Makes the game play seem a bit more real for me.
(al) Right on.

(ax) US Entry action. Japan occupies Changsha. D10=9, no chit.

(ax) Ger eng overruns Danzig. CP (D10)=4, destroyed. CA (D10)=9, escapes to Plymouth.

I don't know but in addition to making it feel more real, I think this approach moves the game along faster and, for me at least, and adds to the real-time tension.

Finally, and this just occurred to me, literally rolling the dice forces me to better understand the thing that I'm rolling for, outcomes and probability of outcomes. In some strange way I think it makes me a better player.

[rkr1958]

Japanese Setup (1/5).

Japan sets up next to last, before Germany but after all allied powers have setup. As I mentioned in my first post, if necessary, we will manually enforce, "USSR-Japan compulsory peace". Other than that neither one of us has broached the subject of making a neutrality pact between the USSR and Japan. I guess if we want to stay true to the rules then we couldn't make a neutrality pact, even if we wanted too, at the earliest, until the first peace step of the game.

One key consideration in the threat posed by the USSR to Japan is the distribution of US entry chits. All three chits were put into the German/Italy entry pool, which means that there are no chits in the Japanese entry pool at start. This means, unless a chit is added due to the capture of a Chinese city by Japan, that it's very unlikely that the USSR will declare war on Japan this turn.

So, the strong Soviet setup in Asia on the border of Manchuria, I'm interpreting as defensive. If so, I would certainly like to keep them there for as long as possible, even up to Germany's invasion of the Soviet Union but that's getting way, way ahead of myself. For this first turn, I need to decide whether or not I'm going to rail Terauchi's HQ-I out of Manchuria and into China where he's sorely needed/wanted for supply purposes.

My current assessment is that the USSR, while strong on the border, is too spread out for any adventure into Manchuria. So I will likely rail Terauchi out and into China on the first axis impulse.

[rkr1958]

Japanese Setup (2/5).

I have setup with an ace up my sleeve in case of the unlikely event that the USSR does DOW Japan and invade Manchuria/Korea. This ace is Yamamato's HQ-A, "his forces" and the IJN assets setup in Japan.

The two IJN marine corps are setup such that they will "march" into Pusan on the first impulse. These two marine units, MIL and 1st eng division are in position to invade from either the Sea of Japan (e.g., into Soviet Asia) or China Sea. Also, these forces along with Yamamoto's HQ-A and the gun division can be transported from Japan to applicable locations bordering either of these two sea areas.

For now, all these forces will serve as Japan's strategic reserve until Soviet intentions are made clear, or clearer if I might dare.

Before wrapping up setup in Japan/Korea, please note the Ki-27 fighter unit setup in Chefoo (two hexes directly south of Port Arthur). This air unit, which has 0 tactical factors, will rebase to Korea in order to free up a land unit from garrison duty. I hate partisans and plan, at a minimum, to keep the garrison ratios in Korea and Manchuria at a level to ensure no partisans appear in either. At this point in the game, an additional land unit in China is of much more utility than a fighter unit with 0 tactical factors.

[rkr1958]

Japanese Setup (3/5).

My objectives for northern China are: (1) ensure transport of the 3 RP's in that theater to Japanese factories and (2) keep the communist Chinese in check. At this point and with the Soviets forced to take combines (which gives them a total of 5 land moves) the communist Chinese aren't really a threat (unless I do something stupid). The biggest threat to interrupting the flow captured Chinese RP's to Japanese factories are partisans.

As much as I hate partisans there aren't nearly enough troops in the Japanese army to have a garrison ratio remotely close to preventing partisans in China. Therefore, the only way to secure the captured Chinese RP's from partisans is to ensure that they're covered by a Japanese unit or army/corps zoc.

I covered 2 of the 3 RP's at setup (one is under the KOR MIL at the top-center and the second is under the Shanghai Warlord at Haichow). The 3rd RP 2-hexes, west/north-west of Tsinan, will be covered before the turn ends.

Now moving on to the Nationalist Chinese and the lightly defended city of Chengchow. I've setup such that the Japanese will have the strength to take that city with minimum risk on the first impulse.

Finally, note the IJA cavalry corps and 2nd mot army on the Manchurian/Chinese border (northeast corner). These two units will move south into China on the first impulse to eventually take up defensive positions in or near the Shansi mountains.

[rkr1958]

Japanese Setup (4/5).

My opponent's Chinese setup has gifted me Changsha and the RP southwest of the city. A gift that I will gladly accept. One thing that I will ensure is to flip control of the rail hexes necessary to ship this RP to a Japanese factory. This shipment will also require the presence of one or more Japanese units sitting on the RP due to the three adjacent Nationalist units southwest in the city in the city of Nengyang.

Other than accepting the gift of another Chinese RP my plans for central China is the same as in the north. That is, hold on to what I've gotten so far and inflict whatever losses I can on the Chinese within acceptable risk.

[rkr1958]

Japanese Setup (5/5).

My objectives for Southern China are entirely defensive. They are: (1) hold on to the strategic two-sea-area port at Canton and the RP in Hainan. I really do wish to avoid getting Japanese units sucked up into the black holes of the Kwangsi and Hunan mountains. Though eventually I would like to push the Chinese west of the rail line running from Canton to Changsha. But not at the expense of getting significant land and air forces bogged down trying to do so.

My plan for this theater is to keep an eye on things and respond as necessary without getting my forces bogged down.

[rkr1958]

Germany.

Germany is the last of all the major powers to setup. Before I get into my setup I want to outline Germany's strategy. Not just for early but, for now, the strategy I plan to use for the entire game.

It's simple really. I plan to take Poland out on the first turn. France out by the summer of 1940 (plan to Vichy), Yugoslavia in early 1941 and then invade the USSR late spring/early summer 1941. My strategy for Germany is, really for all the axis are, make hay while the sun shines and hold on long enough to win. Simple really.

I setup, by far, the bulk of German land and air forces on/near the border with Poland. This gives me a near certain, if not certain, turn 1 conquest of Poland. I'm ecstatic with the draw of German air forces, which I'll cover in the next post. This draw is probably the best, or close to the best, draw possible. I wish to point out the Panzer army (in the flyout) northwest of Katowice. If necessary and because we're playing with railway movement bonus, this panzer army if moved to the rail hex directly west of Krakow would/could achieve a breakthrough for a blitz attack against Polish unit(s) setup in the woods to the northwest along the rail line (or 2-hexes southwest of Lodz).

On the border with France I didn't want to mess around or "bait" France into an invasion of Germany (i.e., to get a 0.25 production increase). I just don't want to mess around with that. So I setup 2 garrisons to cover the 2 non-city German/French border hexes and will use my reserves to cover the three city border hexes. Given the French setup, which seems entirely defensive, I think this will adequately discourage any French incursion into Germany on turn 1.

Three German divisions are setup on/near the German/Danish border. Given fine or snow, these three division assuming they're unflipped (e.g., aren't successfully ground struck) are sufficient to flip control of all Danish coastal hexes bordering the North Sea on the invasion turn; thereby, preventing any landing by CW, or French, land units into Denmark. Again, I just don't want to have to deal with that.

At Keil, as maybe a bit of bait, I've setup the two (very) old German battleships, their two "pocket" battleships and 4 CP points. My intention is to draw away, or at least dilute, CW surprise strategic bombing and/or ground strikes. The more modern KM ships, amph and transport are setup out of danger (from surprise port strikes) in Prussian ports.

Both RN subs are setup in Malta. Of the two French subs, one is setup in the Med and the other I believe in Dakar. This means that allies subs pose little to no risk to German CP's in the Baltic, especially during the CW/French surprise impulse. Therefore, whether or not to setup 3 German CP's at start to transport the 3 Swedish RP's was a "no-brainier".

[rkr1958]

Germany's Initial Air Draws. Well at least the ones that were chosen for setup.

[rkr1958]

USSR. Eastern Europe Setup.

Before proceeding to the initial axis impulse I'd like to show a screen cap of my opponent's Eastern Europe USSR setup. I must admit that I'm somewhat perplexed by what his intentions are.

Is he perhaps worried that I might be intent on a 1940 German invasion of the Soviet Union? Or, is he trying to bait me to deny the Soviet claim on Bessarabia when it comes? [&:]

Before moving on, I must admit that the texture of playing against a human opponent, versus solo, is just so much richer than I though it would be. I want to thank those of you who nudged me into this versus another (now boring) solo replication. [&o]

Let's get this puppy started! [8D]

[brian brian]

I always set up the Japanese MAR like that, to walk in to Korea. Good practice for them, I guess. They end up counting as garrison in Korea, and are spotted in a port on 2 sea zones, with a lot of strategic flexibility going forward.

When setting up the Italian naval assets in a way to minimize risk from an Allied Taranto-Pearl Harbor type Port Strike attack, it is best to maximize the ship AA factors stacked with the TRS but also minimize the target profile - i.e., do not stack the Convoy Points with the TRS. Design the stack based on the rows and columns of the Naval Combat chart. So I stack all the best AA factors with the TRS and decide between adding 5 SCS to their port, or 9, but no more, to keep from moving too high up on the results table. Best is in the 1/3 games where the AA Gun is drawn for Italy, though it is also very very useful around Tobruk/Bardia.

And make sure the CPs have some AA factors with them, too. The TRS are _the_ most important counters Italy has until 1942 - but the Convoy Points are very high on that list too. They are slow to replace when you suddenly need them.

A pity the Frogman rule is not ready for prime time yet. Then you won't often see Royal Navy Fleet Carriers start out in Gibraltar. Or, if you do, then you know the Allies seek to DOW Italy on Turn 1. All moot here though.