Battle odds change depending on order units added to attack

[DTurtle]

So, I'm not sure if this is just a display thing, or if has an actual effect on the battle.

Depending on the order of the units added, the odds displayed can change (drastically). This makes it (even more) difficult sometimes to figure out if an attack is possible or not.

As an example:



All three times, the same troops are attacking. Each time the modified strength of the attackers are different. Usually the modified strength of the defender also changes.

In the screenshots you can also see that if the GR troopers are added last, the estimation adds a stack penalty.

Pretty much all the values change - not just the total, but also the values for the individual unit. So the readiness modifier, morale, leaders, etc change.

Again, I don't know if this has an actual effect on the battle.

[Jdane]

I believe this is because your troops only have about 70 points worth of recon on the opposing force's hex. You would need 400 to have accurate data and thus a perfect and stable odds estimate and modifier values.

There's a random element to the values, due to the uncertainty caused by insufficient recon, and that's why you get different values when adding units to the attack in a different order.

The battle will play out using the actual stats of the units involved on both sides. That's why for instance when you attack a force you think consists of 400 troops you can find out there are in fact 2 000 out there. As the battle progresses and troops close the distance, you'll see the recon score ramp up until reaching 400. That's when you get accurate data on the opposing force.

[DTurtle]

The recon on the enemy shouldn't have an effect on the expected modifier of the readiness or experience of my units.

However, just to be sure, I just checked and the same effect can be seen even if I have 470 recon on the enemy.

[Jdane]

That's true.
And I stand corrected, but if low recon is not the cause of this behavior, I have no clue left. [&:]

[Clux]

Tbh I also noticed this and this has been happening since the game was on beta (watching a playthrough the YT was changing the units order on purpose). Its impossible to know if it really affects or not the battles due RNG (unless you start to make a datasheet with at least a 100 attempts), so we will have to wait until Vic answers.

[Culthrasa]

The reason why the order matters is because you have a -17% modifier for overstacking. that is applied the units that cause overstacking. So allways start with the most important unit in the list and end with the least important one (say a militia!)

[DTurtle]

Well, overstacking shouldn't be a thing at all with those attacks - I'm only at 23 stack points.

In addition, in the first screenshot there is no overstacking penalty, while the second and third DO have an overstacking penalty displayed. This despite the fact that all three attacks involve the same units.

[Vic]

Those odds are just an estimation guys. And it is baded on simulating 1 combat round of battle. Changing the order of the units could result in slightly different results in that simulation since a lot of random rolls are involved and something like the butterfly effect might occur.

[Soar_Slitherine]

ORIGINAL: DTurtle

Well, overstacking shouldn't be a thing at all with those attacks - I'm only at 23 stack points.

In addition, in the first screenshot there is no overstacking penalty, while the second and third DO have an overstacking penalty displayed. This despite the fact that all three attacks involve the same units.

That's not the icon for overstacking, it's the icon for having too many shooters compared to targets. Based on what the manual says on the subject and Vic's comment above, I assume the change is because there's a random element to how effectively units spread out their fire.