Stalingrad to Berlin - but Axis is prepared

[Trapoltini]

I'm currently working on an alt-history scenario based on "Stalingrad to Berlin". What if the Germans had been aware of soviet resources (historically, they expected the Red Army to be near collapsing) and plans for Operation Uranus.

Practically, this will mean that OKH will try to prepare for more defensive strategy, falling back from exposed salients (Leningrad, Rhzev) to shorten the frontline and be able to defend better. However, to win some time to prepare to fight this very different type of war, they plan a backhand blow against Operation Uranus. The Soviet side will have the first turn and try to encircle 6th Army at Stalingrad. However, Germans have deceived them, they know what, where and when.

I wrote up a little backstory to how this could have happened (practically impossible, I know), which will be the scenarios Description text:

Konstantin Kyukrinov, stenographer to STAVKA and Ukrainian
national, had been plagued by nightmares for months: Ever the same
images. Childhood memories of his family starving.

Eversince Stalin, during a STAVKA meeting in 1940, had made a joke
on the expense of victims of the deliberate starving-out of the
Ukrainian peasantry, Konstantin swore to seek revenge...

Finally, in early autumn 1942*, Konstantin would get an
opportunity to act on this desire for vendetta:

His supervisor, eager to quickly join the high-ranking officers
and their staffs in leaving a STAVKA conference to go and see
a piano concert, had left Konstantin by himself.

On the large conference table lay hundreds of pages, detailing
assessments of the strategic position of the soviet union, potential
strenght of the Red Army, estimates of how many manpower reserves are left,
production figures for artillery and tank production and more.
Basically, how much fight the Red Army had left in her in the coming months and years.

Even maps - and suggested dates - of the upcoming Operation "Uranus",
aiming to encircle the German 6th Army, were there for him to study,
copy and take home. Somehow, he would have to bring them into the
posession of German's military intelligence gathering office, "Fremde
Heere Ost" ("Foreign Armies East").**

...

Weeks later, in the German OKH, Foreign Armies East officers had
finally been able to confirm the authenticity of all information
sent. This constituted a rare and incredibly lucky success in
Foreign Armies East's otherwise abysmal track record of gathering
intelligence on the Red Army's capabilities in the war so far.

"400 rifle divisions?!?! 100,000 T-34 Tanks?! Sind die nun
vollkommen deppert g'worrn?! (Austrian for "Are they completely
out of their minds, now?!")".

"Es ist wahr (It's true), mein Fuhrer. They've have tested this
intelligence many times: The location and designation of soviet units
on the maps were always correct and air reconnaissance has spotted
early logistical preparations for the upcoming offensive "Uranus",
even correctly predicting how the Russians would try to mask their
deployment."

"Mein Gott ("My god.")."

"Mein Fuhrer, the Red Army will not collapse 'any day now' - how we've been
expecting for a year now. This will be a long, drawn-out war -
should we ourselves not collapse soon - that is."

"A kind of war we are not yet fully prepared to fight, Herr General von Manstein. Our first
priority must be to buy time for our war industry to build
up, Soldaten to be trained, the oil wells in the Caucasus to repair, to fend of
the English and Americans in the West."

"The russians will attack us at the Don. We must destroy their
Panzerkeile ("Tank spearheads") completely. Then, establish a strong
defensive across the frontline."

"They are still 1,300 kilometers from Berlin. I will make them bleed
for every single hex - er - step."

"So many front sections are exposed salients though, mein Fuhrer, you've read
the numbers. Stalingrad has shown how much the soviets are willing to fight
for one city. We cannot hope to threaten Leningrad or even Moscow, which are
several times bigger than Stalingrad! We must retreat to shorten the frontline,
freeing up troops - especially our mobile divisions - to deal a backhand blow to
the attack across the Don."

"My god. Had I only known the Russians could build a hundred thousand tanks. I would
never have rolled these dices"***

*preparations for Operation Uranus started in September 1942
**I'm aware how difficult it would have been for the fictional character Konstantin to send these documents to Fremde Heere Ost, and that it is pretty unlikely they would have been taken serious or changed OKH minds. There are many but this is probably the biggest alt-history leap of imagination of this little project
***historically, in 1944, Hitler said something like this in a private conversation with general Mannerheim, had he found out these facts 2 years earlier, I think it's fair to assume he would say the same

[Trapoltini]

Unbenannt.PNG (1.78 MiB) Viewed 454 times

It's still work in progress, but so far I've retreated many Axis units - especially in the Heeresgruppe Nord sector.

In my alt-history I assume that the Germans accepted to have to fight a very different kind of war, even taking some lessons from the soviet doctrine, by masking their intentions and movements.

This is how the Axis were able, very close to the D-Day of Operation Uranus, to execute a prepared reorganizations of the frontline without the soviets beeing able to make much use of it.
They've efficiently retreated to a radically shorter frontline, destroying the railway behind them (I know this would happen anyways due to the game mechanics but was afraid the logistics-AI would do weird things if these rail lines were still active in these abandoned hexes).

Freed-up infantry divisions ("Surplus") from this shortening of the frontline will be moved further south, replacing many Hungarian, Italian and Romanian, frontline units.
Almost all motorized (including Panzer-) divisions will be moved south for a cutting off "Uranus" after the soviet Turn 1 (I think the AI is scripted that way).

[fibiger15]

Nice job

[Teo41_ITA]

Did you also alter the VP turn/date capture and bonus? You don't want to give up strategically important positions that might give the Soviet player some early VPs...

[TallBlondJohn]

"I'm aware how difficult it would have been for the fictional character Konstantin to send these documents to Fremde Heere Ost" - Not impossible though. If I were him I'd contact (somehow) the Japanese Embassy in Moscow. Then make my peace with my gods.

Very interesting idea. I doubt that even in these circumstances Hitler could be persuaded to withdraw AGN that far, but Ok. Personally I'd think about abandoning Stalingrad and the Caucasus and have a swing at the huge Velikie Luki salient instead - but that really would be difficult to hide.