Icarus Mod v6.6 - 1916 - Entente playtest AAR (vs mdsmall)

[moon1]

After some consideration, I've decided to make this AAR both to capture my thoughts on the balance of the revised version of this scenario in the process and just for the fun of it. Since I will be making this in real time, I am sure that my gallant opponent won't sneak peek in it until the game is over If you want to check the info on the scenario and mod itself, pls go to this topic, Michael did a fantastic job. He posted a big list of changes for this exact version, which you can read in the last message:
https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/view ... 2&t=401288
There is also a Youtube AAR of the older version done by OldCrowBalthazor: https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/view ... 8&t=405536
A little background info:
- it is January 1916
- both Serbia and Montenegro are on the verge of surrender (last Serbian capital is empty and ready to be captured while Cetinje is only lightly defended and in the range of artillery)
- Senussi rebellion and Arab revolt are about to kick off
- French and British built a massive army on the Western front and are about to start advancing
- so did Italians, though their capabilities are much smaller and they have much less room to maneuver
- Russia suffered a lot of setbacks and its defences are somewhat stretched yet they have a reserve of troops, mostly located in Galicia and Ukraine (where Brusilov's offensive historically took place)
- German subs are already lurking in the Atlantic
- British forces in Egypt are not yet ready to make an offensive in the Middle East and in Mesopotamia the whole Kut debacle is going on, though there is still a chance to save Townshend's troops

[moon1]

Turns 1-4 (January-March 1916)
Before the game I've played a couple of hotseats in order to understand the general position of both CP and Entente troops as well as come up with some sort of strategy. Russia seems to be in trouble: Germans are standing next to Riga and are in two hexes from Minsk which is protected by couple of lvl 0 Russian corps (ugh) and Pleve (double ugh). France is practically swarming with troops but British positions at Ypres are shaky and losing it will hurt the NM of France and Britain. All powers start with quite a reserve cash which can be used either on upgrading units for spring offensives or just on tech and diplomacy. And if Germany has less of a dilemma since its army is mostly up to date, it is not the case with the Entente.

Turn 1-2
While I view the replay, nothing suprising happens. Both Uskub and Cetinje fell, so Serbia is out of the game but not the Serbian army which flipped to French control in Albania. A German artillery unit near Minsk disappeared. Does my opponent want to make an offensive effort somewhere else? I suspect Riga.

First thing I do - checking for subs north of Scotland. Spotted one (looks like it didn't move from the starting position, did my opponent forget about it?). Scratched it a bit. No other subs have been spotted.

Mud on the Western front instead of snow. I use this opportunity to snipe one German corps in the Lille salient. Got very good rolls and took it out almost without losses. After that I fly the reconnaissance missions over German frontlines and see that heavy artillery shifted towards Ypres. Looks like he will focus his attention there. Minding that, I pull an artillery unit at Ypres one row back, so he won't damage it.

I do some mine laying in the Baltics and bring forth the subs. One German destroyer is spotted werst of Riga, I scout the way and bring the dreadnought to clap it. Destroyer retreats heavily damage, I hide my ship in the port of Ösel island.

Senussi rebellion kicked off near Benghazi. I bring a detachment there. I know that at the end of my turn a garrison will spawn but I want it to be protected by something more serious.

In Mesopotamia Michael brings a detachment south of Kut for the siege. I immediately rush relief cavalry corps north and move Townshend's forces out of Kut towards them. They don't reach the cavalry in one turn but will still be in supply coming from Kut itself on his turn and he won't be able to cut them off from relief because of ZoCs. Hopefully they will manage to take a beating which would certainly come next.

All other fronts are frozen in snow or simple under eqipped. Looks like an action phase of my OOB is over. Time to think things through.

After some thoughts (and checking that Germany and AH heavily invested in tech on the first turn, around 600 mpp), I've decided to go for Infantry weapons and Spying and intelligence on both the UK and France. Getting Inf.weap.2 as soon as possible is mandatory while S&I investment will allow me to catch on later if needed. The rest goes for the troops. And Russia only invests in Infantry weapons. Putting too much is rather pointless, it is obvious, that CP will try to take out them first, so I need troops here and now. Also the most important tech (Trenches) are already maxed at 3.

I reinforce the British in Egypt, Brusilov's forces in Ukraine and Yudenich's in the Caucasus, upgrade the first batch of French infantry (I am planning to do it in just two turns, so they are ready to strike during early spring). I also decide to reinforce the Salonika bridgehead, so I send there an artillery piece through event, instead of France. Italians bring in one detachment to help hold the line and rush another towards Bulgarian corps so they won't try to trap my forces in Albania by cutting them off from Greece.

At this point I got an idea while looking through Russian lines. The mod greatly expands the Persian theater by adding new possibilities. I know that if I declare on Persia, there is a 50% chance that their defending Cossacks unit will defect. There is a railway connection to Tabriz and Astara on the border. So instead of sitting and waiting for his attacks, I can make one of my own. Getting Persia would be nice. So I upgrade two division there and rail in one cavalry and one infantry corps. On the next turn I will dow Persia and bring in a HQ. Hopefully it would be a lightning campaign.

[moon1]

Turn 3-4
Replay:
- As I predicted, he comes for Ypres. Germans destroy one British corps south of the city and move in. Now he can make a three side prepared attack, I need to respond immediately.
- Austrian sub runs into my cruiser minding her own business east of Malta. That means that other subs somewhere near by.
- I got it wrong, he is still going for Minsk, just shifted artillery a bit to the south, so my cavalry has stopped spotting it. One corps got clapped.
- German navy harrassed a sub and a destroyer at the entrance to the Gulf of Finland and some ship ran into a mine I've placed earlier. What is going on there?
- Austrians did not advance in the Balkans, instead my opponent just upgraded them. Still have no idea, whether he will try to push further or rail them somewhere else.



Okay, no time to sit idle. Mud on the Western front again, which means I can do some damage. And so I do:
- British shift their forces and destroy a German corps which advanced on CP turn. I do not move in since I can't entrench there, not enough AP. Instead I swap Canadians at Ypres with Belgians. Yes, they are weaker but at least if he captures it and caps Beligum, that won't just disappear without contribution.
- French attack as well west of Verdun, right where German h.artillery made its nest. Michael put in on silent mode so it doesn't fire despite possessing enough shells. I wipe out German defenders and can actually make a double attack on arty but I would need to move Verdun garrison for it and lose half of its 11 entrenchment levels. Since I won't likely destroy artillery in two hits, instead I just move one unit and keep Verdun's defenders at place.



Earlier I moved Italian artillery from Udine to place an upgraded corps to do some swap and upgrade shenanigans but then I've spotted that Austrian corps in Trento has just 5 lvls of trenches. Just enough for my artillery to level them. No snow there, so I opt for attack and it is successful! A score for Entente.

forgot to make a screen

The weather on the Eastern front is suprisingly good for March - no mud, no rains. So I start the Brusilov's offensive a little bit earlier than I expected. Russians crash into Austrian lines, eliminating two corps. We'll see how Michael will respond.



Looks like Riga is good for now, I know by German supply that there is just an HQ behind those troops. Minsk is in danger though, so I deploy my fresh infantry there and rail the artillery. I have no hopes of stopping him, if he wants to take it - he will but I am gonna make it as hard as possible.



The German navy is on the hunt. I lay mines, scout a way out for my dreadnought and harrass his capital ships a little bit.



Townshend forces survived the turn. I take them back into a city (which still had trenches for some reason) and screen them with cavalry. Mission successful, a second score for Entente!



Senussi hit Italian garrison. Since he would be able to siege Benghazi once he takes them out (the port is facing inland), I bring a British garrison from Malta to prevent it.

I scout for subs both in the Atlantic and in the Med. No scores this time.

Okay, team Persia - go! I rail in Evert HQ from Ukraine and rush forward. But I lost the coinflip - Persian Cossacks remained loyal. Well, that's not good but hopefully I brought enough troops to overwhelm them anyway.



As for research, I go with a second chit in Artillery for France, Infantry Warfare for Russia (I will really need extra morale later on), Infantry weapons and Spying for Italy and Artillery for the UK.

[moon1]

Turn 5-6 (March-April 1916)
Replay:
- Well, he got Ypres but there is not much I could have done about it, at least I saved an HQ and put Belgian corps there
- the German navy pulled back in the Baltics and blocked the way with a mine. Now the Russian navy is trapped in the Gulf of Finland. Well, I am content with it, not like I was going to risk it further

- Senussi abandoned their attempts to surround Benghazi and shifted towards Tobruk

- another Russian corps near Minsk gets whacked
- Austro-Hungarians used artillery once against Brusilov but no attack afterwards. Likely he didn't like the odds

Weather got better in France, so I've decided to get a little payback for Belgium. Foch and Plummer lead an attack against Lille. Not the best rolls, had to use two more additional attacks, because of this I didn't manage to entrench there. But hey, Lille is liberated, now he has to take it back.



I reinforce Pleve at Minsk further and pull back a little bit, placing artillery in the city itself. A bit risky, they won't have ground cover there till the next turn but it will have a protection from city hex and it would be cumbersome for him to push through.

I destroy one more AH corps in Galicia but don't push further. There are only two HQs here (Evert is leading an expedition against Persia) and morale is not particulary high. So instead I reinforce, entrench and upgrade.



All is quiet in the Balkans. I've noticed that some of AH corps are missing. Most likely they were railed to Galicia.

In the Caucasus I push forward and try to attack the corps on the eastern side of Erzurum. Extremely bad rolls twice in a row, so I stop for now. Normal infantry also looks extremely weak compared to mountain divisions (1-5 expected roll vs 2-2).



I vent my frustration on the treacherous (or not treacherous enough, depends on the view) Cossacks, guarding the capital of Shah. Persian campaign ends in one turn, +130 mpp for Russia and a lot of territory to maneuver. Bringing Evert and two additional corps was definitely a good idea. Now I wonder whether I should rail him back to Galicia or try my luck against the Ottomans here.



A good sub hunt is conducted in the Med: a couple of nice hits. I also know that most of his Atlantic subs are sitting on the Indian convoy right now, so they will most likely move to US/Canadian one on the next turn. I prepare a little surprise for them in advance by moving most of my destroyers there.



Research:
I put a second chit in artillery for the UK, as well as one in trenches
France goes for gas and shell production
Russia - for second chit in infantry warfare
Italy - second chit in Spying

[moon1]

Turn 7-8 (May 1916)
Replay:
- Germans strike Lille with artillery and recapture it
- He did break through Russian lines at Minsk and hit my arty but only for -3. Keeping it there was a good move, German took hits on two of their elite 11* infantry corps.
- Bulgarians are shuffling in front of French lines in Greece, one corps moves into a gap between my forces. It will reach my HQ on the next turn unless I do something
- German subs attack a French destroyer in the Atlantic. It hurts but he doesn't manage to sink it, so they run away
- Austrian movement in the Alps. I suspect he wants to retake Trento

First of all, Western front. The main question is whether I want to get into attritional fighting for Lille. I fly a scouting mission and spot 4 German heavy artillery pieces, two of them in the range of Verdun. Ok, I cannot relent here. I need to distract him.
British artillery roars and an assault begins. Fighting with Germans in a big city is not fun (game shows 3-3 or 2-2 scores even after 6 artillery strikes) but I still manage to smack them and entrench there. French corps to the south of Lille does not have an HQ attached - this is bad. Hopefully, he would go for Lille instead. I also destroy a corps adjacent to Verdun and move a unit there. So far so good.



Next are Italians. I am pretty sure that he will attack Trento on the next turn, so I fly my recon bombers to Trieste instead to check what is going on down there. And I suddenly spot a battleship parked right in its port which was invisible to my troops (because they have no naval spotting). And my infantry can attack them since they are adjacent to it! I immediately punish Austrians for this mistake and sink it. As for the rest of my move, I just shuffle infantry and rail in French cavalry to Brescia in case he tries something funny.



I go for attack near Minsk. Odds are not good but I have no choice if I want to hold the city. Losing it right now will create a giant hole in the front (and that's not even speaking about NM loss). One German corps destroyed. I move in damaged units to the front (they will be evaporated anyway) and keep fresh reserves in the back. I also rail in two additional infantry corps from the south. As tempting as it is to go full Brusilov, losing Minsk will hurt me more.



Since I postponed Brusilov's offensive, I have decided to keep Evert in Persia and capitalize on my successes there. I swap his HQ with inf.division and rail it to Tabriz, along with cavalry corps from Europe. After I bring back the expeditionary force from Persia, I will try to attack Mosul or at least cut the railway to Baghdad. Pretty sure Michael said yes to the decision to build it there.



In Egypt British are going on an offensive as well. Getting the Turks out of El Arish was not easy but I did it. It doesn't seem he has anything here, so he will likely fall back on his turn. Anyway this city is useless until the decision comes in to construct a water pipeline. So I'll just wait for it, maybe bring some reinforcements along the way.



Arabs are wreaking havoc, cutting off Medina and sieging two towns here. So far so good.



My recon airship spots a Turkish artillery in Sofia. So he is serious about trying to attack me here. I decide to try and destroy daring Bulgarians before things get out a hand. They are not entrenched but this a mountain hex and half of my French troops have no weapon upgrades, so it is not guaranteed. Luckily, all rolls show the expected result. This should cool Bulgarian temper.



As for research, I do the following:
- two chits in Command and control for France (I simply have too much troops)
- second chit in Artillery and fourth chit in Trenches for Britain
- one chit in Artillery for Russia
- third chit in Trenches for Italy

Also Russia got a nice bounty for conquering Persia. I use it to buy one more field artillery, so I have more options for counterattacks.
I really want to start producing tanks but there is always something else that needs money right now. Hopefully next turn.

[moon1]

Turn 9-10 (June 1916)
Replay:
- Here comes the suspected attack on Trento, supported by AH heavy artillery (so now he has only one at best in Galicia, something to note). And... it fails! After several hits defenders are nowhere close to being destroyed.
- He is still going at Minsk. And with two field artilleries. Ok, no way I am holding this.
- Counterattacks near Lille and Verdun, two French corps destroyed. But he is not moving in, strange.

Since shell stockpiles are close to full on some guns, I can't just not attack in the west. But this time fighting is very limited. I destroy one German corps near Cambrai (and get Foch to 2 exp) and simply occupy Lille again and entrench there. I've decided against taking forest hex near Verdun, better let him come to me.



Well, that's embarassing. After Austrian blunder at Trento, Italians've just repeated it. At least casualties are low.



Russians are pulling back at Minsk. The city can fall on the next turn already but Germans are too strong here and it is too late to do anything about it. At least some reinforcements arrived, so I will have a couple of turns to set up a new frontline.



Well, I am kind of fluid like this. Relent where it is hard and strike where it is soft. Since Germans made themselves serious and Austrians didn't bring their second heavy artillery to Galicia, that's where I stike. Oilfields taken. Austrians have used most of their shell stockpile and Brusilov got 3 pips of exp. And I also bring additional fire support from Belarus since I am preparing to give up Minsk. We'll se how he'll respond.



Evert and his Cossacks march forward, meanwhile Yudenich force Ottomans to retreat through the mountains. Now I can attack Erzurum from three sides. But his trenched cap there at 7 and my field artillery only has max of 5 shells. I will need to bring a heavy piece here.



Arabs liberate first settlements on the peninsula. Lawrence should arrive on the next turn.



Research and production:
The UK - reinforcements, upgrading and transporting. Really wanted to do tanks but British are pretty battered after spring offensives and I have a lot of fronts with their presence. Next turn, definitely.
France - one infantry corps and fourth chit in Trenches (should have done it earlier)
Russia - one infantry corps, second chit in Artillery and second chit in Production (since reducing the cost of units reduces NM losses, this could come in handy)
Italy - keeping a reserve for now

[moon1]

Turn 11-12 (July 1916)

Replay:
- Minsk is taken. Well, it was expected. Still hurts
- Germans yet again attack Lille. British artillery provides fire support and though they did eliminate it, casualties were quite high (10-7 ratio). They do not advance, again
- They make another attack east of Vedrun and this time they do advance. Another one hugs the fortress from the west. Falkehayn can't just let it go, it seems
- Austro-Hungarians counterattack in Galicia and yet again it turns out to be a very costly affair. Thanks, Brusilov
- Something hit an Italian mine in the Adriatic, I will need to check it out
- AH cavalry moves to the gap in my lines north of Salonika
- Italian frogmen strike Austrian ships at port, yay!

Okay, if he wants to go full Verdun on me, I will return the favor. I put units there under Foch's command and French artillery begins to roar. He put his own guns on defensive fire but Foch is experienced enough already to neglect those hits on morale of counterattacking units. Two German corps are dead, I do not move in, better to preserve my corps for the next counter if he decides to continue.

British go on the offensive of their own, this time north of Lille. I fly my recon planes and encounter lvl 2 German fighters. I'd better speed up my own aerial research then. Anyway, one corps dealt with, I advance and entrench. Now British forces surround Ypres from sides. I can't pull artillery close to it though, so it is out of my reach for at least one more turn.



I decide to continue pressuring Austrians in Galicia. This proves to be less than ideal decision: both of his infantry corps survived with 1 hit and I had to finish them off with cavalry, both of which got bad roll of 3-1. At least their lines are getting thinner.



A shameful retreat from Minsk. I need to bring more troops here on the next turn.



Cossacks enter Mesopotamia and carefully scout the way to Mosul. He has a cavalry corps there, unupgraded and fully entrenched. I move my cavalry next to town and dig in. Now his supply will start to drop and he will have a hard time rooting me out of there. I also reinforce my strategic bomber so I can speed up the process.



I try to destroy AH cavalry in Macedonia - unsuccessfully, so I cover the gap instead.



Arabs are swarming around Medina. It only has three supply, so I need to wait for three turns for them to start starving. No way I am getting rid of fully upgraded and entrenched infantry corps till then.



Senussi enter Egypt. I cover the coastline with available troops.



Sub hunting brought quite the game this turn. I check my mines in Adriatic and it turned that it was a German sub which ran into them with only 2 hits left. I make short work of it.



North of Scotland, I've spotted two more subs. Judging by supply, they are returning home. I've scratched their paint a little bit, this should piss off Tirpitz.

Research and production:
The UK - finally a tank corps and a chit in Tank tech
France - one infantry corps and a chit in Fighter tech (I need to start closing the gap with the Germans)
Russia - two infantry corps
Italy - a mountain division, I learnt that I won't get anywhere without them

And finally, some research was completed:
Italy - Industry 1 (meh)
Russia - Infantry warfare 1 (now that's good!)

[shri]

Having been on the other end of this scenario as a tester (as CP) and having lost, CP is terribly weak as compared to Base Game.

CP Ottomans are close to collapse (mostly historical, though Kut survival shouldn't be easy, perhaps Ottomans can start with the HQ here in Jan itself), to make the Kut debacle possible, right now it cannot be done.

CP Austria is collapsing in Italy (a-historical)
also collapsing in Galicia (historical),

Romania and Greece favour Entente (historical)

Salonika is as strong as it was in 1918 (a-historical), in 1916 it was a malarial swamp and killed/hospitalised more Entente soldiers than the entire Egypt campaign. Salonika campaign overall took a huge amount of investments, the ports were upgraded, railways were built etc.

Albania is too strong (a-historical), Serbia should randomly lose half its army (as it did lose in the march to the sea), reverting entire army to French control is a bad solution, maybe Albanian control is ok. That will put pressure on Russia even more.

Russia is swimming with well fed troops and MPP (a-historical), there was a reason why there was no northern version of Brusilov, the Russians were by now close to a collapse and the Pyrrhic victory of the Brusilov offensive led to revolution.

America moves 1% a turn to Entente - not sure if this is the right way to do it. (US was having a lot of discussions about neutrality, JP Morgan and the Bankers wanted US entry but public opinion was not in favour of Entente, infact a decent minority of very strong and vocal pro-German voice existed even among the Jews, ironical but true).

Ypres is too weak - Fully agreed, in 1914 it could have been taken but Moltke Jr. was too weak to enforce it, in 1916 it was a formidable defensive position. Ypres was difficult to take due to swampy terrain + weather.

Verdun was too weak earlier, now perhaps it has over compensated. Divided on this to be honest, Verdun was not impregnable, but neither was it just another random fort.

Trento should be stronger - Historically, Italy never managed to advance anywhere, all they did was capture about 30km along the Isonzo at their maximum points. Coming back to Italy is too strong here. (a-historical)

Overall, Entente is like 80-20 sure to win this scenario as compared to 55-45 in 1914 one. This with no un-enforced errors and both players being mid or upper tier.

[moon1]

Having been on the other end of this scenario as a tester (as CP) and having lost, CP is terribly weak as compared to Base Game.

CP Ottomans are close to collapse (mostly historical, though Kut survival shouldn't be easy, perhaps Ottomans can start with the HQ here in Jan itself), to make the Kut debacle possible, right now it cannot be done.

CP Austria is collapsing in Italy (a-historical)
also collapsing in Galicia (historical),

Romania and Greece favour Entente (historical)

Salonika is as strong as it was in 1918 (a-historical), in 1916 it was a malarial swamp and killed/hospitalised more Entente soldiers than the entire Egypt campaign. Salonika campaign overall took a huge amount of investments, the ports were upgraded, railways were built etc.

Albania is too strong (a-historical), Serbia should randomly lose half its army (as it did lose in the march to the sea), reverting entire army to French control is a bad solution, maybe Albanian control is ok. That will put pressure on Russia even more.

Russia is swimming with well fed troops and MPP (a-historical), there was a reason why there was no northern version of Brusilov, the Russians were by now close to a collapse and the Pyrrhic victory of the Brusilov offensive led to revolution.

America moves 1% a turn to Entente - not sure if this is the right way to do it. (US was having a lot of discussions about neutrality, JP Morgan and the Bankers wanted US entry but public opinion was not in favour of Entente, infact a decent minority of very strong and vocal pro-German voice existed even among the Jews, ironical but true).

Ypres is too weak - Fully agreed, in 1914 it could have been taken but Moltke Jr. was too weak to enforce it, in 1916 it was a formidable defensive position. Ypres was difficult to take due to swampy terrain + weather.

Verdun was too weak earlier, now perhaps it has over compensated. Divided on this to be honest, Verdun was not impregnable, but neither was it just another random fort.

Trento should be stronger - Historically, Italy never managed to advance anywhere, all they did was capture about 30km along the Isonzo at their maximum points. Coming back to Italy is too strong here. (a-historical)

Overall, Entente is like 80-20 sure to win this scenario as compared to 55-45 in 1914 one. This with no un-enforced errors and both players being mid or upper tier.

I am not so sure about the chances. Germany seems to be even stronger than at the start of 1914, AH is mostly the same and the Ottomans, despite much stronger Arab rebellion compared to vanilla, have time to prepare because advancing through Sinai is made much more difficult and Mesopotamia turns into a swamp for several turns at the start of each year. With all NM debuffs that Russia has, they're collapsing quicker than any other great power in our match (49% NM already, the closest "competitor" is AH with 60%). We'll see how things will change in the last years of the war, though. After all, the main point of this mod is to prolong the game into 1918.

[moon1]

Turn 13-14 (July 1916)

Replay:
- Germans retaliate near Lille and destroy one British corps there, no advance
- Ottomans are pulling troops to Mosul
- Senussi block the port of Tobruk
- and not much really happened this time, aside from occassional sub spotting

My first thoughts - he probably got Artillery 2, that's why there is a pause in fighting. I fly recon and see that it is not the case. But there is quite enough reserves to launch a counteroffensive. I take a glance at German readiness at the frontline (100%+) and decide to stop here as well. I simply cannot sustain more losses and fighting so close to his supply hubs is too hard for me. Yet.



Another Italian blunder. Since I had a full stockpile, I've decided to test his defences a bit. Got two 3-1 rolls. Never again (probably).



Brusilov continues to lose his reserves because Tsar needs them against the Turks. Heavy artillery is railed to Kars, one cavalry corps - to Tabriz, so he launches only a limited offensive in Galicia against unupgraded cavalry at Lutsk. Yet again I take maximum losses on both rolls. What's with my luck lately?



It doesn't look like my opponent is going to pressure me in Belarus for a while. One artillery is still here, though. Wonder where the other had gone. Riga perhaps?



The siege of Mosul is in full swing. I bomb the city and leave it with only 1 supply. He will still get supply from the south even after I reduce Mosul to 0 but I will cut that line as well on the next turn, unless he does something.



Senussi are quite troublesome. They evaded the last hit and Tobruk's port remains blocked.



Research and production:
The UK - 1 chit in Gas and shell production, 1 chit in Fighter tech
France - an infantry corps, also made elite heavy artillery.
Russia - an infantry corps
Italy - second chit in Spying

New techs:
France - Trenches 4!

[moon1]

Turn 15-16 (August 1916)

Replay:
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- As well as on the eastern
- Turks abandon Mosul!
- And Senussi retreat into the desert too

As usual, I check the west first. Spot a German corps in Ypres with only 78% readiness (probably without HQ attachment or this is the one that was constantly shelled by Royal Navy, parked near Calais). Easy prey, I thought. Totally forgot to check his artillery. NOW he has Artillery 2. My corps gets whacked for -2 hits. Okay, I abort everything and check my own artillery research. Britain - 58%... France - 99%... Well, talk about being lucky (or unlucky, depending on perspective). Anyway, he will surely come for Verdun next and I will get fully upgraded artillery only after two turns (and that if I do not fire for one turn). I have to hold on till then. If he doesn't try to get attack without surrounding it first. Then I only have to pray for the defenders.
Anyway, I shift one heavy artillery unit closer, so they can cover Verdun from all directions. Next turn looks grim.



I check Minsk as well. Germans are sitting on the railway and waiting for their artillery to upgrade. Then he can either forward or rail them to the west. I have to sit and wait for now.



There also getting more and more crowded in Macedonia. I shift my artillery to the mountain hex and bring in British detachment from Lybia just to plug the lines. He will probably try to force me out of here before Tsar's abdication (after that British get a decision to pull Greece into the Entente unless they are leaning towards CP)



Okay, enough of broody stuff. Time to tell tales of great exploits and victories! First one - Mesopotamia. Cossacks ride through Mosul, destroy an Ottoman detachment, retreating through the Syrian desert and after entrench around the city. Now Baghdad is cut off from the rest of the empire.

This is a very bad week for the Turks. First Mosul, now Erzurum. Heavy artillery, brought from Galicia, blasts the way forward. Russians both take Erzurum as well as advance forward beyond it.



Brusilov continues the meatgrinder in Galicia. Another AH corps destroyed.



Research and production:
UK - 1 infantry corps and a lot of reinforcements for Mesopotamian army
France - 1 infatry corps, 1 tank corps and fourth chit in Trenches
Russia - 1 infantry corps, second chit in Infantry warfare
Italy - hoarding

Some new techs this turn:
UK - Industry 2, Trenches 4
France - Artillery 2, Industry 2
Russia - Industry 2

[shri]

Having been on the other end of this scenario as a tester (as CP) and having lost, CP is terribly weak as compared to Base Game.

CP Ottomans are close to collapse (mostly historical, though Kut survival shouldn't be easy, perhaps Ottomans can start with the HQ here in Jan itself), to make the Kut debacle possible, right now it cannot be done.

CP Austria is collapsing in Italy (a-historical)
also collapsing in Galicia (historical),

Romania and Greece favour Entente (historical)

Salonika is as strong as it was in 1918 (a-historical), in 1916 it was a malarial swamp and killed/hospitalised more Entente soldiers than the entire Egypt campaign. Salonika campaign overall took a huge amount of investments, the ports were upgraded, railways were built etc.

Albania is too strong (a-historical), Serbia should randomly lose half its army (as it did lose in the march to the sea), reverting entire army to French control is a bad solution, maybe Albanian control is ok. That will put pressure on Russia even more.

Russia is swimming with well fed troops and MPP (a-historical), there was a reason why there was no northern version of Brusilov, the Russians were by now close to a collapse and the Pyrrhic victory of the Brusilov offensive led to revolution.

America moves 1% a turn to Entente - not sure if this is the right way to do it. (US was having a lot of discussions about neutrality, JP Morgan and the Bankers wanted US entry but public opinion was not in favour of Entente, infact a decent minority of very strong and vocal pro-German voice existed even among the Jews, ironical but true).

Ypres is too weak - Fully agreed, in 1914 it could have been taken but Moltke Jr. was too weak to enforce it, in 1916 it was a formidable defensive position. Ypres was difficult to take due to swampy terrain + weather.

Verdun was too weak earlier, now perhaps it has over compensated. Divided on this to be honest, Verdun was not impregnable, but neither was it just another random fort.

Trento should be stronger - Historically, Italy never managed to advance anywhere, all they did was capture about 30km along the Isonzo at their maximum points. Coming back to Italy is too strong here. (a-historical)

Overall, Entente is like 80-20 sure to win this scenario as compared to 55-45 in 1914 one. This with no un-enforced errors and both players being mid or upper tier.

I am not so sure about the chances. Germany seems to be even stronger than at the start of 1914, AH is mostly the same and the Ottomans, despite much stronger Arab rebellion compared to vanilla, have time to prepare because advancing through Sinai is made much more difficult and Mesopotamia turns into a swamp for several turns at the start of each year. With all NM debuffs that Russia has, they're collapsing quicker than any other great power in our match (49% NM already, the closest "competitor" is AH with 60%). We'll see how things will change in the last years of the war, though. After all, the main point of this mod is to prolong the game into 1918.

Germany in 1914 start gets super experienced corps and Generals by 1916, they are the reason for late game dominance despite crashing NM.
AH in this mod loses like ~20% Morale in end of 1916 (at least it did in the 1914 start game) from the death of the old Kaiser and the blockade and extra blockade, starvation etc. I have seen AH thrice (once as Entente, twice as CP) go down from ~60 to ~30 in 3-4 turns and then collapse by mid/late 1917.
So, AH morale has to be considered taking that into account. You ideally need AH above 70-75% by end of 1916, if you want to survive 1917.

[moon1]

Germany in 1914 start gets super experienced corps and Generals by 1916, they are the reason for late game dominance despite crashing NM.
AH in this mod loses like ~20% Morale in end of 1916 (at least it did in the 1914 start game) from the death of the old Kaiser and the blockade and extra blockade, starvation etc. I have seen AH thrice (once as Entente, twice as CP) go down from ~60 to ~30 in 3-4 turns and then collapse by mid/late 1917.
So, AH morale has to be considered taking that into account. You ideally need AH above 70-75% by end of 1916, if you want to survive 1917.

I've checked the guide of v 6.6 which Michael had provided, Austria-Hungary starts losing 50 NM per turn when Karl I ascends to the throne (it fires randomly after September 1916). I believe they also lose 50 NM per turn since it is considered that by 1916 Russia had occupied Galician oilfields and Czernowitz earlier. They will also lose 500 NM after Tsar's abdication and 100 NM per turn if Romania joins. Losing 30% of their NM is equivalent to 9600 points, the maximum amount they can lose in 4 turns with these events and penalties is 1300 points, so there is no way that AH can lose so much in just 4 turns unless they suffer a lot of losses in this time span and also lose some of their NM hexes. Austria-Hungary does however get a massive penalty after Brest-Litovsk if they do not occupy their main cities with corps (200 NM per turn for 1 city, for total of 6 cities and 1200 NM).

[moon1]

Turns 17-18 (August 1916)

Honestly, I was expecting the Germans to go on a massive offensive in the west on the next turn but instead nothing happened... A few artillery barrages were fired across the front but that's it. The same eerie slience descended across other fronts. Really strange. Maybe he is plotting something? Well, at least I can upgrade the French artillery in peace.

Anyway, not much to say about the first turns of August. The only noteworthy event is the capture of Medina. A new HQ has arrived after that so now Arabs are a much stronger fighting force.



I've also spotted that CP have started to put chits in diplomacy. My guess is Greece.

At the end of the turn Russian desertion event fired off. All troops between Dvinsk and Bobruysk lost 1 hit and got a morale penalty. Ouch.

Research and production:
UK - fourth chit in Trenches, second chit in Tanks
France - two chits in Tanks, third chit in Spying, third chit in Production, one chit in diplomacy (Greece)
Russia - second chit in Industry, third chit in Production
Italy - one mountain division, second chit in Spying

New techs:
France- Production 2, Fighters 2, Spying 1
Italy - Spying 1

Turns 19-20 (August 1916)

Replay:
- The lull breaks. Germany breaks through the Russian lines near Riga and surround it
- Austro-Hungarian attack in Galicia, completely unsuccessful
- German artillery fires several salvos in the west again, no advance, no attack

Now that the French artillery is on par with the German and stockpiles are full, I go on a limited attack - one German corps destroyed near Nancy. British try their luck at Ypres as well with terrible results. But at least his artillery is using shells on defense across multiple locations instead of concentrating on breakthrough in a single one.

I advance forward near Ypres and Reims this time. Autumn is soon to come and I should try to take better positions before the winter.



Riga is a lost cause: city is reduced to 0 and port doesn't provide supply. I scout the way with sub and evacuate the defenders to Osel. It is time to establish a new defensive perimeter.



When Kaiser kicks the Tsar, the Tsar kicks Kaiser back. The only thing is that CP has two Kaisers and Russians constantly mistake one for another since both of them speak German.

But enough with the jokes. I brought back heavy artillery from the Caucasus and Brusilov leads another attack - three AH corps destroyed, Lutsk is captured. Not even the second heavy artillery brought from the Alps help Austrians to stop Russian onslaught. I rail in a third field artillery piece which I initially deployed at Polotsk. Strike where it is soft - that's my motto. I wonder when the German buddies will come to their rescue.



Since French artillery is upgraded to 2 and Turkish is only at 1, I try my luck in Macedonia and attack Bulgarians. The corps survives with 1 hit. Ugh.



Things are looking grim fro the Ottomans in Mesopotamia. Russian heavy bombers bring down the supply in Baghdad and their HQ is retreating. I think he will try to run, no point of staying here. So the liberation of Iraq is only a question of time.



Again my opponent spends on diplomacy. I counteract. Hopefully I've guessed right.

Research and production:
UK - 1 infantry corps, 1 cavalry division for the Arabs, one chit in diplomacy (Greece)
France - one chit in Fighters, two chits in Infantry warfare
Russia - 1 infantry corps, 1 mountain division, one chit in Fighters, one chit in diplomacy (Greece)
Italy - one chit in Artillery, one chit in diplomacy (Greece)

New techs:
UK - Fighter 2, ASW 2
Russia - Production 2

[moon1]

Turns 21-22 (September 1916)

Replay:
- Germans push forward in Latvia, destroy heavily battered corps and capture Smilten. The road to Pskov lies open
- German subs with second upgrades are spotted in the Baltic. Good thing I got ASW 2 on the previous turn
- Austro-Hungarians pull back a bit in Galicia and do not attempt to cover oilfields
- Ottomans continue to drag their boots through the sand in Mesopotamia. As I thought, he completely evacuates
- Senussi go past Benghazi to the west

All right, since my opponent is focused on Russia again, I need to push forward on the Western front. I blast my way through a German corps and Canadians occupy a hex in front of Brussels.



Italians force Austrians to retreat and go past Isonzo.



Russians create new defenses in the north. It is not much but I have quite a lot of troops coming next turn, so I remain relatively calm.



In the Caucasus, Russians reach Trabzon. Time to prepare for another siege.



Brusilov strikes again! Austrian lines collapse near Czernowitz and its defenders are cut off from the rest of the army. Taking it will push Romanians towards joining the Entente.



Baghdad is surrounded. I'll wrap the whole operation up in a turn or two, so I need to start thinking about the future. Should I keep this force in the region with summer attrition (though Indians do not suffer from it unlike the Russians) or try my luck elsewhere?



Senussi dug in around El Agheila. Will he go for Tripoli? It is a long way.



Research and production:
UK - third chit in ASW, third chit in Fighters, 1 infantry corps
France - 1 infantry corps and 1 mountain division (I have an idea...)
Russia - 1 infantry corps, 1 infantry division, third chit in Production
Italy - second chit in Artillery

New techs:
UK - Artillery 2 (finally)
France - Infantry weapons 2 (good, hopefully I'll get a window of a couple of turns before Germany gets it), Tanks 1, Command and control 2
Russia - Artillery 2 (an unexpected but welcome surprise)

[moon1]

Turn 23-24 (October 1916)

Replay:
- Germans go north towards Revel. They skirmish with defenders of Pernov a little bit and their cavalry is pushing along the shores of the lake. If he gets lucky with the weather, he can cut the railway to Revel, something to be mindful of
- Canadians are obliterated near Brussels, Germans move in
- At the same time they pull back from Ypres. Strange, I thought he would be willing to fight me there
- Ottomans continue their retreat
- Austro-Hungarians fall back even further In Galicia
- Brave Italians got mauled to death by Austrian artillery on Isonzo

And a notification right at the start of the turn: Germans launched unrestricted naval warfare! Somewhere around Celtic Sea. Well, I've already planned to upgrade my destroyers with ASW 2 on this turn, so Germans can have free reign there for now.

All is quiet on the Western front again. This time it is the British and the French who spend the time greasing their new guns. I will relaunch the offensive operations on the next turn. So for now I simply reoccupy Ypres. Congrats, lads, we are on Belgian soil again.



Russians got a lot of new troops on this turn and I deploy all of them in Estonia. I need to protect the railway and try to establish the defences at least in couple of hexes away from Revel before the snow sets in.



After breakthrough near Riga I willingly abandoned Dvinsk fortress and slowly creep back to Polotsk. Mud season is here, so Germans can't do much.



Not much happened in Galicia as well. One Austrian corps had retreated badly damaged and I am upgrading the rest of artillery.



Balkan front looks... well, kind of weak. I can't quickly bring reinforcements here and CP have built up quite an army. I think I need to start pressuring Romania into joining, they would provide a nice distraction.



Baghdad has fallen. I've decided to pull back most of the Indians, winter season is close so there will be no summer attrition in Sinai. My next offensive will be there. Time to ship them.



Arabs are re-equipping their troops. Ahead is the main Ottoman forces and they cannot tackle them head on. Hopefully, combined with a British offensive across Sinai backed by fresh Indian troops, they can finally deliver a coup de grâce to the Sick Man of Europe.



Research and production:
UK - 1 Canadian corps, third chit in ASW
France - upgrading its massive army
Italy - one chit in Command and control
Russia - 2 detachments, one chit in diplomacy (Romania)

New techs:
UK - Spying 2
Italy - Infantry weapons 2

Diplomatic successes:
Greece - 8% towards Entente (hmmm, did I miss something? I was pretty sure that we had an equal amount of MPPs invested. Looks like I did not guess correctly)

[moon1]

Turns 25-30 (November 1916 - January 1917)



An entire of war has passed. I've decided to do one big post instead a couple smaller ones and mostly to talks about strategy and statistics since not much have happened in that time. Snow season put most of the fighting on pause, so both sides are busy licking their wounds.

We'll start with National Morale - the "HP bar" of all warring nations. The changes are following:
Germany: 84% -> 54% (loss - 30%)
Austria-Hungary: 70% -> 47% (loss - 23%)
Ottomans: 86% -> 47% (loss - 39%)
UK: 85% -> 77% (loss - 8%)
France: 77% -> 70% (loss - 7%)
Russia: 66% -> 34% (loss - 32%)
Italy: 91% -> 97% (gain - 6%)

Battlefield losses:


Germany is really starting to feel the effect of combat and the blockade, losing its NM even faster than Austro-Hungarians. There is a lot of urgency in both taking control of Ukranian wheat by bringing Russia out of the war and launching a full scale sub campaign against the UK. The clock is ticking.

Austria-Hungary lost Trento and suffered a lot of losses during the summer campaign in Galicia. They've still managed to hold the front though and Romania did not enter the war, so their position is relatively safe for now.

Ottomans are in dire straits. The Arab Revolt is in full swing and Baghdad was lost to combined Russo-British assault. Without extensive support from their allies, Turks can quite probably collapse in 1917.

Both UK and France are doing exceptionally fine. Battlefield losses were kept to a minimum, Belgium was liberated when Germans have abandoned Ypres.

Russia, on the other hand, is on steady course towards the iceberg called revolution. Any more losses of NM hexes will launch a cascade of bad events. Mutinies have already happened twice.

Italy is the only nation that actually is more enthusiatic about the war than before. Taking Trento helped quite a bit.

So, in general, my thoughts on 1916 campaign across the fronts:

Western front - success. Entente has retaken Ypres after initial setback, held Verdun, liberated Lille and pushed the Germans to the border with Belgium. But most importantly - the trades were not in German favor.
Eastern front - partial failure. Brusilov tied up a lot of AH troops but did not achieve any breakthrough while at the same time Germans have captured Minsk and Riga. But the Russian army remains an effective fighting force. For now.
Balkans - stalemate. The frontline didn't move an inch after initial skirmishes.
The Caucasus - success. Both Erzurum and Tranzon have fallen but it took some effort and stripped Brusilov from his artillery hammer for a couple of turns.
Alps - partial success. Italians captured Trento but that's it. A lot of indecisive fighting.
Mesopotamia - total victory. Persia was conqured, Baghdad has fallen.
Arabia - success? Medina has fallen but it was doomed from the beginning. I'd say that the real campaign begins only now.
Sinai - stalemate. British captured El-Arish and slowly push Turks out into Palestine. But the further they push - the harder it is to go forward.

And now 1917 comes. I will share my ideas on what I am planning to do in the next post.

And a tech table, forgot to add it.

[moon1]

So, talking about strategies. Despite higher than usual Germany casualty rate, they still have 75 units deployed across all fronts. Their NM took a big hit during the Turnip Winter of 1916-1917 but all of their NM remain out of reach. So, the easiest way to capitualte them is to get rid of their allies. Austria-Hungary is doing fine fow now but the Ottomans have suffered a lot of setbacks and their positions in the Middle East are very vulnerable. There I shall focus my efforts.

The second issue is Russia. Germans are only several hexes away from Revel. Losing it would likely result in Tsar's abdication and Finnish declaration of indepedence. After that Germans can swarm the Gulf of Finland and destroy the Baltic Fleet there. And this, coupled with battlefield losses, would likely cause the Bolsheviks to rise up. I need to delay this moment for as long as possible.

I also have to be wary of German subs. They still haven't been deployed in force in the Atlantics and I'm pretty sure this moment will soon come.

Considering this, my plans are the following:
- keep up the pressure on the Western front, using newly deployed French and British tanks with France taking the brunt of fighting
- redeploy Brusilov and Russian heavy artillery to Estonia and face the German onslaught there
- launch an offensive in Belarus and try to liberate Minsk so Russia can get some NM back
- send British expeditionary corps to Russia (in this mod Russia only receives NM boost after the February Revolution if British or French troops are present on its soil)
- build up Arab regular forces
- make a breakthrough in Sinai before summer heat settles in
- try bringing Romania into the war
- reinforce the Balkans with Italian and British troops since the former can't really push through the Alps for now and the latter will become much more useless in the Middle East during the summer
- try to intercept German subs before they reach main shipping routes

[moon1]

Turns 31-32 (January-February 1917)

Winter gave me a neccessary pause to start the redeployment. I rail Brusilov, two infantry corps and the heavy artillery from Galicia to Estonia. This will relieve a lot of pressure from Austro-Hungarians, so I keep the rest of artillery there to prevent his attempts to push through. As for Romanian entry into the war, now I only can hope for diplomacy.



I fly recon and see that Minsk is empty. Too bad that there is snow on my turn. I think I will need to send another artillery and HQ here. Maybe Kornilov and Yudenich's guns?



In the Caucasus Russians have finally captured Trabzon. Ottomans had tried to evacuate their detachment but it turned into a complete fiasco with both the transport and a Turkish destroyer covering the retreat going to the bottom of the sea. There is little point in going forward, so I dig in and prepare to send artillery and some of the infantry to other fronts. Yudenich will stay here and try to capture Mus and Bitlis.



Arabs are going through the Syrian desert while British are pushing further to Gaza. I got an Arab cavalry division, will get an infantry corps on the next turn.



Research and production: no records

[moon1]

Turns 33-36 (March-May 1917)
I've decided to cover two turns in one post, since the game've slowed down a little bit.

In April Britain and France launch their united major offensive against the Germans in Belgium. My opponent did get Infantry weapons 2 and have started re-arming his infantry but most of the frontline troops were still sitting at 1. Three German corps were destroyed and Entente was surrounding Brussels from three sides. The gaunlet is thrown.



Germans decided not to take it and have started to pull back. No counterattacks, just defensive artillery barrages on the frontline troops. So in May French soldiers liberate Belgian capital, a big success! The rest of German army in Belgium is pinned against the Dutch border.



Once Brusilov has arrived to Estonia, Russians immediately lauch a counteroffensive. German infantry retreats through the woods, opening a path to the artillery positions. I play aggressively, we need to stop them here.



An expected counterattack destroys infiltrating Russian infantry. Artillery shifts to Pernov, so I swap the corps with a detachment there. Russia finally got Infantry weapons 2 and there will be a stream of reinforcements coming from other fronts (including artillery and "surprise" guests), so far so good.



Things are not good in Belarus though. He brought an artillery piece to Minsk, so the entire attack falls apart.



I am not giving up though and try again on the next turn because I've spotted that Germans moved their artillery elsewhere. The result is even worse. I need a better HQ here, probably Yudenich with 2 exp. And more infantry.



Austrians have noticed the disappearance of Brusilov and Russian heavy artillery so they start grinding my defences down, destroying one infantry corps at a time. I am not worried, though, it is a long way to either Kiev of Odessa. As long as I can keep the frontline intact, it should be fine.



Turks just can't catch a break. Russians force them out of Mus and Bitlis by swarming the cities from both sides and constantly bombing the supply chain from Mosul.




Arabs performed a flanking maneuver and cut off one of the retreat routes to the Middle East for the remnants of the Ottoman Mesopotamian army. British them from Baghdad. It is not a cauldron: Ottomans can get away through the north but they suffer a lot in the process.



Meanwhile most of the preparations for a breakthrough to Jerusalem are completed. Indians are brought to the frontlines, Arabs are enveloping Ottomans from all directions and Royal Marines are steaming towards Awaba.



As for diplomacy, the CP have persuaded Denmark to provide them with a port in Iceland. I don't really see any complications of this turn of events for me, at least for now. To use it German subs first need to get there and I am ready to face them.