Operation "Rising Lion": The Day has Come!

[HalfLifeExpert]

Israel is striking Iran's Nuclear Program as of right now.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/isr ... lTQSxd5hdw

Little details so far, naturally, but I thought I would start a thread since this operation is such a common theme among us Command users, particularly with Kushan's recent large scenarios on this possibility.

[Kushan04]

Israel is striking Iran's Nuclear Program as of right now.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/isr ... lTQSxd5hdw

Little details so far, naturally, but I thought I would start a thread since this operation is such a common theme among us Command users, particularly with Kushan's recent large scenarios on this possibility.

I think I may have given the Iranians too much credit.

[Nikel]

The Israeli side seems to be bombing at pleasure. And neutralizing military leadership and nuclear scientists.


Reportedly Natanz, nuclear site.

https://video-s.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/ ... y5N9iU.mp4



The iranian drones are already flying, they are so slow that need hours. Edit: already being shot down over Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.







TWZ report.

https://www.twz.com/air/israel-strikes-iran

[Nikel]

Mossad operations according to Itay Blumenthal

Israeli Security Source – Behind the scenes of the Israeli strike in Iran:

The Mossad secretly built capabilities inside Iran aimed at damaging Iran’s strategic missile array and air defense systems. Mossad agents smuggled large quantities of specialized weaponry into Iran, deployed them across the country, and launched them at targets with precision and effectiveness.

Disclosed operations include:

1. Commando Units: Mossad commando teams deployed precision-guided weapon systems in open areas near Iranian surface-to-air missile (SAM) sites to disrupt Iranian attempts to down Israeli aircraft.

2. Vehicle-Based Technology: Sophisticated technologies were installed on vehicles. At the start of the surprise attack, the weapons were launched and completely destroyed targeted Iranian defense systems.

3. Drone Base: Mossad established an explosive drone base inside Iran, which launched attacks on surface-to-surface missile launchers at the Aspehbad base near Tehran—launchers considered a strategic and civilian threat to Israel.

Video, reportedly Mossad agents in action. A nice pic may be extracted from it to illustrate a special action in CMO


https://video-s.twimg.com/amplify_video ... 0uIY2F.mp4




Video by the IDF of what was targeted in Iran.


https://video-s.twimg.com/amplify_video ... h7YhyN.mp4




Map by Damien Symon.




IDF, damage to Natanz nuclear facility and a video on what is underground.





https://video-s.twimg.com/amplify_video ... mp4?tag=21



Chris Biggers on Natanz damaged structures.





Missile launchers in containers were also destroyed.







C-130J-30s over the Syrian desert. Mossad elements? Not the goats


https://video-s.twimg.com/amplify_video ... AKuwc2.mp4



Thread by Patarames, weapons that Iran could use to strike back. Note that he is pro-iranian.


https://unrollnow.com/status/1933413639052276060

[Knightpawn]

I think I may have given the Iranians too much credit.

I guess a few people might have been heavily playtesting your scenarios during the last couple of months, not just for pure entertainment

[tylerblakebrandon]

Israel is striking Iran's Nuclear Program as of right now.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/isr ... lTQSxd5hdw

Little details so far, naturally, but I thought I would start a thread since this operation is such a common theme among us Command users, particularly with Kushan's recent large scenarios on this possibility.

I think I may have given the Iranians too much credit.

Well, it's always better to assume competence and end up with a cake walk instead of assuming incompetence and having a blood bath.

[Nikel]

Israel Alma video explaining Fordow nuclear site and ADs nearby, that is being attacked after Natanz.


https://video-s.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/ ... u1D3Ub.mp4








Isfahan site also attacked, another Israel Alma video explaining the site.


https://video-s.twimg.com/amplify_video ... A_05Di.mp4

[HalfLifeExpert]

Now we see how top-down/centralized Iranian command & control is, with so many military leaders being taken out.

I honestly expected a major Iranian missile counter-strike by now. Given that this attack was anticipated by anyone with a functioning brain in Iran for around 2 decades, you'd think they would have short-notice contingency operations ready.

The neutralization of several top commanders could, instead, have crippled their ability to launch operations for the near-term. Additionally, it seems that Mossad has pulled off deep raids on Iranian strike assets in conjunction with the air strikes. It will probably be at least a year before we get real details on that, but I'd be very interested on how they pulled that off.

Notably, too, this campaign could see the final combat flights for the F-14. Iran reportedly has a handful of them still operational. They may have been higher on the target list, but I'm sure the IRIAF is making use of everything it has in this campaign.

The Tomcat probably won't be able to be effective, but even if they don't come back, it would be the final end of the Tomcat.

[Nikel]

This night we will see what they can do.

Probably they will attack military assets, otherwise:

Israel will launch strikes against Iranian oil refineries and natural gas sites on the Persian Gulf, if Iran decides to target Israeli population centers during their retaliatory attack, according to Channel 12.

[HalfLifeExpert]

If I were Israel, I'd honestly be concerned about protecting the Dimona facility.

That seems to me to be the single target that would most warrant being hit as retaliation for "Rising Lion".

Iran has to know that there's not a great chance of many missiles getting through to hit cities, and the Israeli people are somewhat accustomed to missile attack. However, one or two good hits on Dimona could be serious. It may be worth it to launch a mass attack specifically on that one site.

[Nikel]

Apparently you may attack Natanz and Fordow sites (Uranium enrichment), without problem of causing a nuclear disaster.

Any expert in the forum that may explain what can be attacked and what not to avoid a Chernobyl?


Iran retaliation is already happening.

TWZ coverage.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/iran-strikes-back




Sobashi Radar Site destroyed, pic by Damien Symon.





IDF video, military commanders and nuclear scientists eliminated in Tehran.

https://video-s.twimg.com/amplify_video ... Eg4dOv.mp4


The 2nd day and already air superiority over Tehran? The iranian armies are a joke.

IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin says over 70 Israeli Air Force fighter jets participated in the overnight operation in Tehran to achieve aerial freedom of action over the Iranian capital.

He says some 40 sites were targeted, including air defense systems and related assets.

IAF fighter jets and drones flew over Tehran for some two and a half hours during the operation, Defrin says.

"The dozens of aircraft are flying freely over Tehran, thanks to the opening blow that removed the threat of Iranian air defense systems," he says.

Defrin says it is the deepest area in Iran that the IAF has operated in so far.

"Tehran is no longer immune, the capital is exposed to Israeli attacks," he adds.

Already considering the only real weapon they have, and it is a double blade.

Iranian Parliament representative and retired IRGC general Mohammad Kowsari says that Iran is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz.

[Tcao]

Just saw this article

https://www.guancha.cn/haimasi/2025_06_15_779418.shtml

https://www.163.com/dy/article/K23EQIJU051481US.html

Why Is Iran’s Mid‑Range Missile Retaliation So Poor?
– June 15, 2025


Summary of the article

1. Overview of the Latest Escalation
Israel and Iran’s new round of conflict is intensifying. Despite Iran launching two rounds of missile strikes, their impact has been minimal.

Iran’s retaliatory capabilities—especially mid‑range missiles from hardened shelters—have shown major weaknesses and sustained heavy losses. This has raised significant global concern, revealing glaring deficiencies in Iran’s missile defense and counterstrike systems.

2. Iran’s Nuclear Facilities: Vulnerabilities Exposed
The article outlines key nuclear sites in Iran, noting most lack underground protection:

Yellowcake Plants

Ardakan (processing ~50–70 t/yr) and Bandar Abbas (~21 t/yr capacity) operate without shelters.


Conversion Facility

Isfahan site converts yellowcake to UO₂ and UF₆ (~200 t/yr), also unprotected.


Enrichment Sites

Natanz (surface & underground centrifuges) and Fordow (deeply buried, IRGC-built) are critical, with Fordow housing ~233 kg of 60% enriched uranium.


Parchin Complex

Alleged nuclear warhead production site with protective bunkers; claims suggest Iran may have completed warhead designs.

Heavy‑water Reactor at Arak

Lacks bunkers and is central to plutonium research.

3. Prelude to June 13 Attacks
Diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran broke down mid‑May, heightening tensions. Israel, under pressure, threatened military action.

Iran responded with its largest-ever air defense exercise “Eqtedar 1404” (May–June), deploying advanced radars and systems around Tehran–Isfahan.


4. June 13 Israeli Operation “Awakening Lion”
In early hours of June 13, Israel launched a large-scale airstrike against Iran with five stages:

Assassinations of senior officials and scientists

Strikes on Natanz and Tehran missile systems

Attacks on western missile defenses

Suppression of mid-range missile shelters

Follow-up bombings targeting bunkers, munitions sites, airports, etc.

Key outcomes:

Iran didn’t fire a single mid-range missile during the first 24 hours.

Numerous nuclear sites were hit (surface parts at Natanz), but the most secure ones—Fordow and Parchin—remain intact.

Israel, with U.S. authorization, deployed F‑35s effectively to bypass Iran’s defenses.

Destruction of radar and command bunkers suggests Iran’s air defense grid is compromised.


5. Why Iran’s Missile Shelters Failed
Iran uses three types of missile shelters:

Launch shafts with open hatches

These are vulnerable if the hatch structure collapses and Iran lacks rapid repair capabilities.


Mountain shelters with TELs

Effective in theory, but Israeli airstrikes and sabotage teams targeted TELs exposed when emerging. IR remained unable to launch effectively.


“Missile farms” (underground launch containers)

Designed for rapid cold‑start launches without refueling. But Israel reportedly located and destroyed them preemptively.

Iran reportedly has 33+ shelters; about 23 were aimed at Israel. Still, no launches occurred on June 13—losses were being inflicted steadily.

6. Iran’s Limited Retaliation
Within 24 hours Israel attacked, Iran only managed a modest drone response—no mid‑range missile launches occurred until June 14, under operation “True Promise 3.”

Mid‑range missile strikes have not yet grounded Israeli aircraft, allowing continued bombardment of Iranian shelters.

7. Long-Term Outlook: Challenges Ahead
The author argues Iran lacks the capacity for prolonged, full-scale war:

Over 90% of Iran’s electricity depends on gas—mainly from the South Pars field. Attacking that could cripple half its power grid.


Iran lacks robust civil-defense infrastructure; sustained conflict would devastate its economy and society.

Negotiations seem inevitable, yet Iran still can’t stop Israeli strikes and air operations.

Even a nuclear breakout (“nuclear sprint”) remains uncertain and politically fraught.

Military strength is more than just advanced equipment—it demands cohesive strategy and enduring readiness.

Summary
Iran’s missile counterstrike capability—especially mid‑range—has proven weak and piecemeal in the face of a coordinated Israeli offensive.

Well-fortified nuclear sites remain mostly untouched, but surface and less-protected locations suffered heavy damage.

Iran’s energy and civilian vulnerabilities may force a reset or ceasefire.

The article paints a stark picture: Iran could escalate, but lacks the structure for sustained retaliation.

[Nikel]

Video, launch of BMs by Iran, from the cockpit of a commercial aircraft flying over Dubai.


https://video-s.twimg.com/amplify_video ... L7NS-C.mp4



Reportedly, rocket motor part of SM-3 in Iran? If true the interception may happen very early.








Kermanshah missiles base, after Israeli attacks. Pic by Damien Symon.






Tabriz AB, pic by Brady Africk.






Failure of Israel interceptors, destroying their own launcher.

https://video-s.twimg.com/amplify_video ... W6Kg1U.mp4




Types of Iranian BMs according to Israel Alma.











Iranian TV Broadcasting emission while being bombed.

https://video-s.twimg.com/amplify_video ... oFHjVv.mp4








Destruction of Iranians F-14s.


https://video-s.twimg.com/amplify_video ... Ox_pvx.mp4







Updated video by the IDF, on the targets in Iran without details.


https://video-s.twimg.com/amplify_video ... Ihva6F.mp4

[Nikel]

Number of missiles launched by Iran by barrage.






Hermes 900 UAV shot down, the only AC shot down so far by Iran.

https://video-s.twimg.com/amplify_video ... LLEdJk.mp4



RA-01 israeli drone spotted today, not in the DB?

https://www.twz.com/air/the-existence-o ... o-surprise


https://video-s.twimg.com/amplify_video ... Uva0vE.mp4



Iranian helicopters destroyed on the ground in Kermanshah.

https://video-s.twimg.com/amplify_video ... PyvTKS.mp4

https://video-s.twimg.com/amplify_video ... qT4ITC.mp4


And still flying. According to OSINT Technical:

Baz 673 (this aircraft) flown by Major Shaul Simon is credited with downing a Syrian MiG-25 "Foxbat" using an AIM-7F Sparrow missile.

673 now flies with the name “Foxbat Killer.”

Map by geoconfirmed, periodically updated.

https://geoconfirmed.org/iran



Sejjil Two-Stage Medium-Range Ballistic Missile.

[Nikel]

Requested 2 times, but still not in the DB, OSINTTechnical:

Israeli Air Force F-15D taking off for a strike reconnaissance mission over Iran, not armed with bombs, but with an "Ophir" Long-Range Oblique Photography (LOROP) camera pod.

While more and more ACs are crossing the Atlantic, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar was evacuated.


https://video-s.twimg.com/tweet_video/G ... AAdFkJ.mp4



Fordow could be assaulted if not destroyed with bombs.


https://video-s.twimg.com/amplify_video ... ByldcY.mp4







TWZ piece on other possibilities.

https://t.co/SRncJLMEBV



Attack on the Arak nuclear facility.






USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) and Carrier Strike Group Twelve (CSG-12) will deploy to Europe the next week.







IISS, Israel’s attack and the limits of Iran’s missile strategy The Sejjil was also used yesterday.


https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/on ... -strategy/





Damien Symon pic.

[Nikel]

2 angles with 3 impacts? What is that huge bomb?

The IDF releases footage showing its strike this morning on Iran's Arak heavy water reactor.

The reactor was only partially built, and Iran had informed the IAEA that it planned to begin operating the facility next year.

The military says “the strike targeted the component intended for plutonium production, in order to prevent the reactor from being restored and used for nuclear weapons development.”

https://video-s.twimg.com/amplify_video ... M9uJO4.mp4

https://video-s.twimg.com/amplify_video ... DHlkcE.mp4

https://video-s.twimg.com/amplify_video ... u44EWE.mp4







Cluster munitions in Iranian BMs.

[Blast33]

A very nice missile intercept here:
Posting a video is not possible but it is worth to see this one:

https://x.com/i/status/1936092877622259793

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[HalfLifeExpert]

The US has acted. It seems like the B-2s went in and hit 3x nuclear program sites.

Too early to say, but from what I've heard so far, this might be a one-off raid rather than a full commitment.

My top concern at this point is the Strait of Hormuz. I think that's the one thing left that Iran can play that would cause actual damage that isn't the relative pinpricks that the ballistic missiles have done.

https://apnews.com/article/israel-iran- ... 712d214579

POTUS will address the nation shortly on this raid.

[MausMan2]

for sure they're planning for that eventuality. Israel appears to have been doing some work down there, including maybe a strike on one of their ships in Bandar Abbas earlier today.. -watching marine traffic, I'd guess they'll wave through the Chinese bound tankers. But the first tanker going to a European port now approaching the straights is the Stolt SagaLand. Curious to see if it gets harassed in the next hour or two.

[Nikel]

TWZ ongoing report on the US attacking Iran main Nuclear sites.


https://www.twz.com/news-features/u-s-h ... facilities






Post attack sat image. The subsidence looks like more entry holes?






Results of the subs launched Tomahawks impacting Esphahan nuclear site.

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