25 March 1944
This brings the game to T144. Since I am having to rely on recycling images from the full AAR, I'm going to keep to a quick turn by turn reporting model and then some form of overview.
T139
Finally saw the German positions in the Ukraine start to weaken. 4 Ukrainian managed to cross the Bug and an exhausted 3 Ukr made a few gains. Given this offers the chance to finally clear the central Ukraine I turned 1 Ukr east and risked some deep exploitations.
Just to restate, GS works in this game, the Sturmoviks disrupted a lot of combat elements (plus the Soviet artillery) leaving a well placed formation vulnerable.
The negative side of this, is I still have bad outcomes and even when it works I pick up a lot of losses. So still rotating air groups back to the National Reserve to train up new pilots.
T140
The AI responded robustly in the Ukraine. I lost Vinnitsa (again), had a cavalry corps trashed and my spearheads cut off. So I made the best of a bad job, put Odessa to one side and decided to finish off that salient that has been stalling me for weeks.
Finding Nikolaev so well defended was a shock as I need that for the advance to Odessa (plot spoiler – this is going to take some resolving).
There is not much going on north of the Pripyet. I'm making marginal gains around Lake Peipus and mostly letting the main fronts rest. Also my truck situation is still a bit marginal and I can't afford to sustain an offensive across the whole front.
T141
Still all about the Ukraine. The main pocket actually held so left it to weaker Armies to actually collapse and pulled the better formations together for a renewed drive on Odessa.
On the other hand, round #1 of the slaughter at Nikolaev. At least I knocked their fortifications down a lot.
T142
Early March, saw a shift in my approach. While the weather remains relatively settled at some stage the spring rains will hit and ideally I want to stop at a point where I have good supply (the enduring truck problem).
The limited action in the north starts to speed up. AGN is now in full retreat but there is a chance for a pocket around Pskov, 2 Blr is focussed on Lithuania in preparation for a summer offensive over the 1941 borders.
Nikolaev cost me another 9,000 losses over 2 attacks.
At least it should fall next turn. As an aside, I think the German player needs to use this trick. You clearly need to commit significant forces (4+ divisions) but that is creating a huge delay, certainly more than 4 such divisions in the field. As the Soviets move west, the few very large rail yards are critical to their supply network and this sort of defence is a real problem. Which indeed will be a feature of the battles in Germany.
T143
It took 3 more bloody assaults to clear Nikolaev. Its not just the time delay (or the losses). 4 Ukr is completely wrecked and will take 3-4 turns to refit.
I can take some optimism that Odessa is now on the situation map but if it is as well defended as Nikolaev that is another VP bonus lost.
German counter-attacks weakened 2 Blr but finally managed to threaten a pocket in eastern Lithuania.
T144
Improving my truck situation is a slow process. The extra 1944 LL is welcome but I have a deficit and to repair the situation in individual units often means moving them well back from the front line to pick up missing trucks. I probably have too large an on-map army but with all these long salients I need the formations just to provide flank protection.
In wider news, my glorious allies suggest that the Second Front will be a wee bit delayed, while Finland starts chatting about an exit strategy.
Given a combination of the wrecked 4 Ukr, the cost of destroying that last pocket and that I am badly placed (really didn't want to turn 1 Ukr east), not much I could do in the Ukraine. Both 1 and 3 Ukr sent mobile formations back to the rear to refit and rest.
Depending on the weather, there may be scope for a sustained offensive aimed at Odessa in April – certainly no point trying to make substantial gains now.
2 Blr gained its goal of reducing the Postavy pocket (E Lithuania) and some more gains along the Dauga. That leaves AGN reliant on two single track rails (from Riga) and whatever is landed at Talinin. Building up the Baltic fleet air arm to see if I can limit this as this is a situation where a naval air campaign is worth a serious commitment.
Which oddly makes Leningrad and 2 Baltic Fronts the centre of attention. Goal is to be well placed for the primary targets (Pskov and Talinin) for an early summer offensive.
I can't sustain any operations here, and lose quite often, but mostly hold onto my gains, so its a slow under-mining of the Axis position rather than anything dramatic.
And time to discuss where I think I am with the VP table.
In theory there are 440 city points and 156 bonus pts on the list (here I am discounting any Odessa bonus. So ever managing an auto-win, before April 1945 is unlikely but the points are there). I can't see anything like that occuring at any of the earlier set of checks.
I need 80 to match the HWM by Jan 45. Assume the northern trio (Pskov/Riga/Talinn) will generate 48 and given the current front those gains are secure. I should also take Lvov and Odessa by early summer (so up to 68).
Given where the front lines are, staying ahead of schedule in the north is feasible so maybe one or both of Koenigsberg and Warsaw by late summer? Either will give me a match vs HWM.
Beyond that, I come to some big choices. It is clear that the AI is strong in the Ukraine and I am really struggling to match the historical timescale. I can't see any reason for this to radically change so while I am sure I'll put Romania out of the war by late 1944 I could be late for the VP.
So I think the big choice is do I hunt an auto-win in April 1945 (feasible only if I maximise the Rumanian-Hungarian VP) or gamble on Berlin before the end of May 1945. If I go for that, and become entangled in the AI's defensive lines then a draw starts to emerge as the likely end point.
If this analysis is right then I need to decide by say September 44 if I am going for VP across the map or to gamble on Berlin before the cut off date?
So, the politics (VP gain) point south and the Balkans, a military victory suggests taking the direct route into Germany.
OOB. The really big numbers are not shifting, if anything the Germans have more tanks. At least I am finally starting to take on my 1944 models which really helps. It looks like the Germans have around 10 divisions in their reserve, I presume this is what they have lost in the winter battles refitting. They gain a final manpower boost in the summer of 1944, after that my expectation is what they lose stays lost as they lack the manpower to refit properly.
Losses, not a good turn for me. There were a lot of German counter-attacks on my more exposed formations, hence accepting a forced pause on operations. T34/85s now in action along with IS2s.
Ok, not many T34/85s yet, but am shedding the last KVs from my heavy tank formations.
As an over-view (I've removed the weather graphics to make it a bit more clear), the northern part of the front. AGN is retreating at its own pace, my only mobile assets north of the Dauga are cavalry but clearly there is now a direct threat to Riga from the northern parts of 2 Blr.
Central sector. As far as I can, I've weakened my front lines to allow me to refit and prepare. Ideally I want to use 2 Blr to take Koenigsberg and 1 Blr to drive SW towards Brest-Litovsk etc. But that is dependent on clearing out the German positions on 2 Blr's northern flank.
The Ukraine. Especially for 3 Ukr (the pink coloured formation), you can see how much I have pulled out of the line. Almost all its mobile formations are well back trying to capture trucks (also they shed less as they are then closer to my functioning depots). Vinnitsa is back under Soviet control (if I recall it changed hands 4 times).
