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Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #1. (continued)

{...} = private, AAR comments (i.e., no part of the inter-game communications).

[ax] Land Moves. Numerous German & Japanese. Nothing noteworthy or potentially surprising (I think) to report.

[al] Just advancing into Belgium and trying to envelop the Chinese armies.

[ax] Well, besides that ...

[al] Heh.

[ax] Paradrop. Ge II Para dropped on Brussels.

[ax] Only 2 Land Combats. Both by Germany.
(1) +21 on Liege.
(2) +21 on Brussels. (both with and without the notional).

[ax] Do you wish to include the notional in the defense of Brussels?

[ax] I guess that's really a trick question ... makes most sense for you not to include it, which leaves on the German A/B unit alone in the hex. So I won't include.

[al] Good assumption. No notional.

[ax] Land Combat. Liege. +21 Assault. Outcome given.

[ax] Air Rebase. Italy.
CR-42 FTR from La Spezia to Karlsruhe, Germany.

[ax] Well that ends my impulse. I'm going to leave it at Germany's HQ reorg (none) for you to advance to the allied impulse (+3).

[ax] Game turn 04-MAR-APR-1940-Axis-01-EOI.zip sent.

[ax] It's dinner time ... though I'll be available to answer questions ...

[al] Roger. It's dishes time here, so I'll get going in a bit.

Western Front. Pre and Post Invasion of Belgium.

{I have 4 artillery (max ground support) and +2 HQ support (Rundstedt) in position to support the lone German airborne corps holding Brussels. Also, I have fighters in position if he tries to fly ground support or ground strike Brussels. What I like about having artillery in position to support Brussels is that it can't be intercepted by the French.}

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #1. China.

Like it was historically, my war in China is sucking the Japanese in further and further when I has no such intention. And also as was historically, I would really like to resolve the war in China in order to free up the large Japanese army there. But, I don't believe that's going to happen.

I really need to consider "deescalation" a bit to free some of the army, and all of the marines and divisions, in the next year and a half.

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #3.

[al] CW and France don't have any DoW stuff to deal with.

[al] The USSR, however, is claiming Bessarabia.

[al] Will Germany allow the claim?

[ax] Yes. Germany allows the claim.

[al] Okay. Sigh of relief in STAVKA.

[al] No other DoW stuff for USSR.

Bessarabia.

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #3. (continued)

[al] Impulses:
- China & France land;
- CW, USA, USSR combined.

[al] No port attacks.
For naval air, CW flies the ftr2 in southern Tunisia to 0 box E Med.

[al] Naval moves:
- US sails cp from Manila to South China Sea (0 box);
- US sails TRS loaded with 4-1 GARR LV Corps to Bering Sea (0 box);
- CW sails task force from Plymouth (all ships stationed there save the TRS) to North Sea (3 box);
- RN cruisers still on patrol in North Sea (HMS Effingham & York in 0 box) return to Plymouth.

[al] Naval combat:
- CW can initiate in E Med, but with only a ftr2 in the 0 box, won't.
- CW can and will initiate in North Sea.

[al] CW does not fly any planes as support.

[al] Will the Axis do so?

[ax] No reaction.

[al] Search rolls are CW 5, Ge 4. No combat.

[ax] Those old KM battleships are quite sneaky.

[al] They are indeed. The CW "missed it by thaaat much", only off by 1.

[al] The Italians can initiate in the E Med - do they wish to?

[ax] No thank you.

North Sea.

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #3. (continued)

[al] Do you want to CAP for strat bombing?

[ax] No thank you.

[al] Okay. British and French do not fly any air raids.

[al] Do you want to fly CAP for ground strikes? I don't think you need to, but no harm asking I suppose.

[ax] Negative.

[al] Didn't think so. Well and good, since the Allies don't launch any.

[ax] Tricky little hobbits.

[al] Actually... hrm.

[al] No, still won't.

[al] If the French had a second LND on the map, I'd probably have done it.

[al] Rail Moves:
- Soviet 3rd Infantry Division rails from Sevastopol to Omsk.

{What is up with this rail? Are the Soviets staging back to Asia? If so, this could mean he's building up for a Soviet invasion of Manchuria. I definitely need to keep an eye on the situation.}

[al] Land Moves:
- CCCP Cavalry moves from Sian to hex just north (covering the river crossing north of the city);
- Assorted Red Army land moves in Bessarabia and E Poland;
- KMT forces respond to the Japanese manoeuvres in southern China;
- US LV Corps disembarks into Dutch Harbour;
- BEF in France advances to west of Brussels;
- French Army advances into Belgium and reserve positions behind the front.

[al] was sorely tempted by both the lone Japanese SNLF division and the lone German Fliegerkorps in Brussels, but decided the risks weren't worth it.

[al] So, no land combats.

[ax] I pretty sure you noticed the 4 factor artillery and Rundstedt's HQ-A (+2 support) in place to back the airborne if necessary.

[ax] What I like about the artillery was that it could provide the max in ground support to the airborne without risk of interception.

[al] I can't say I noticed the artillery as such, but I was quite certain the PARA would be doubled by ground support one way or another.

[ax]

[al] Best I could get was a +8, but most likely a +6. No way that's worth a try.

[ax] And it would be an assault, which if it went south would spell an early end to the French. I agree that from a risk/reward it would be too much of a risk.

[al] Rebases:
- USSR flies ftr2 from frontier with Bessarabia to Gomel;
- Belgian ftr2 flies to London, the remaining organised British ftr2 takes its place;
- French ftr2 along frontier with Belgium flies to south of Ardennes to improve coverage.

[al] Sent game file at CW HQ reorg. Just end the phase to proceed to the Axis impulse.

[al] That's about it for me tonight.

[ax] Roger that. Me too.

[ax] Will make the weather roll and take a look but nothing beyond that. Goodnight.

[al] You too!

[ax] Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #4. Weather=2. Arctic=blizzard, north temperate=snow, Med=storm, north monsoon=rain, south monsoon=storm, south temperate=storm. I'd say a late winter storm has hit.

[ax] Impulse advance=3, die roll modifier=+1.

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #4. Weather.

The re-roll for starting in a turn is something I never do. Any re-roll lowers the number of impulses you get during the game with about 2 impulses each year(!). That's a lot if you ask for a re-roll in 1939 or 1940 if you count that towards 1945...

In this game you always see possibilities you really "want" to exploit by gaining the first move by the Axis. If you gamble on getting those by asking for re-rolls to much, in the end, this comes back to haunt you in 1941-1942 with the Axis, because you are suddenly faced with a lower initiative modifier (or even a modifier for the Allies).

ORIGINAL: Centuur

The re-roll for starting in a turn is something I never do. Any re-roll lowers the number of impulses you get during the game with about 2 impulses each year(!). That's a lot if you ask for a re-roll in 1939 or 1940 if you count that towards 1945...

In this game you always see possibilities you really "want" to exploit by gaining the first move by the Axis. If you gamble on getting those by asking for re-rolls to much, in the end, this comes back to haunt you in 1941-1942 with the Axis, because you are suddenly faced with a lower initiative modifier (or even a modifier for the Allies).

I know ... I guess I get a bit greedy at times ... it's very hard to maintain discipline and resist the temptation to re-roll when you really want to go first.

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5.

[ax] No DOW's.
Japan Closes the Burma Road. USE=2, 1 chit added. Marker[0,365]=116.

[ax] Germany allows the Bulgarian claim to South Dobrujua and the Hungarian claim to Transylvania.

[ax] No alignments.

[ax] Actions. Japan - land, Germany - land., Italy - land.

[ax] Port Strikes. None.

[ax] Naval Air. None.

[ax] Any CAP for strategic bomber or ground strikes?

[al] No CAP for strat raids or ground strikes

[ax] 1 Ground strike by Japan.
Chaing HQ-I + Warlord. Ki-30(1/2=1TAC).

[ax] 2 Ground strikes against CW stacks in Europe.
(1) Gort HQ-I, IV Mot, A/T div. Bf 110c F/B (3/2=2TAC), He 111 H-3(3/2=2TAC) w/Bf-109 (4a2a)
(2) He 111 H (3/2=2TAC) (not escorted but Bf-109 (5 a2a) in range to counter-intercept).
RAF Hurricane I (4 a2a) in position to intercept either.
Instructions?

[al] While I assume the second groundstrike (with the He111) is to Rotterdam, the Hurricanes will intercept the strike on Gort's position. I believe the cvp on HMS Ark Royal can also intercept? If so, it will intercept to that hex as well.

[ax] Also, Gladiator CVP can intercept both places too.

[ax] Copy that.

[ax] So, Hurricanes & CVP fly to Gort's hex?

[al] Correct.

[ax] Rotterdam left alone?

[al] Correct.

[ax] Air to Air. Belgium[52,31].
Round 1. Allied=16, another German fighter & PIL lost (Germany's choice). 😡
Axis=3, Hurricane I shot down, PIL survives.
Axis stays. Do the allies (i.e., CVP)?

[al] Yes, they stay, thanks.

[ax] Round 2. Allied=15, Bf 110 C aborted. Axis=10, no allied plane to clear.

[ax] Axis stay and I assume the allies do too.

[al] Correct.

[ax] Round 3. Allied=11, He 111 H-3 cleared. Axis=11, no allied plane to clear. That ends the air-to-air.

[ax] Ground Strike. vs Belgium[52,31].
He 111 vs Gort HQ-I=6, missed.
vs IV Mot=9, missed.
vs A/T div=10, missed.

[ax] Ground Strike. Rotterdam. He 111H vs 5-3 MIL=1, flipped. vs 4-1 Gar=6, missed.

Air to air. Ground Strike. Belgium [52,31]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5. (continued)

[ax] Ground Strike. Japan vs China [86,137].
Ki-30 vs Chiang HQ-I=9, missed.
vs Chungking Warlord=4, missed.

[ax] Rail. Japan. None.

[ax] Rail. Germany. 5-2 MIL. Kiel to Katowice.

[ax] Italy. 5-3 MIL. Civitavecchia, Italy to Netherlands [50,34].

[ax] Land Movement (of note). Japan occupies Chihkiang. USE=5, no chit added.

Japanese Ground Strike. China.

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5. Japan. Land Combat Planning.

The decision to assault Ichang, China was a NO-GO.

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5. Japan. China. End of Impulse.

NOTE to the Japanese Army in China. Don't get suck into the interior.

NOTE to the IJN in China. Remember you're navy/marines and not army.

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5. Germany. Rotterdam.

[ax] Ground Strike. Rotterdam. He 111H vs 5-3 MIL=1, flipped. vs 4-1 Gar=6, missed.

{Well I got one of the two. There's no chance of cutting supply but the one flip does negate the -2 penalty for a land combat during snow. Given 50% or better, I'm going for Rotterdam and hoping to clean it out once and for all.}

[ax] 1 Land Combat. German attack on Rotterdam at +9.0557.
This includes engineering division support (means it will take the first loss is necessary),
+1.5 HQ support (von Bock)
Ground support (2 planes, 4/2 & 1/2 TAC)

[ax] You have two RAF planes that can fly but without fighter support. Germany has a 5 factor fighter in position to intercept. Do you wish to fly ground support?

[al] That 5-factor FTR is still uncommitted, yes?

[ax] Yes.

[al] No, thanks. RAF planes stay on the ground.

[ax] I assume you want an assault?

[al] Yes, that's correct, assault please.

[ax] Land Combat. German Assault on Rotterdam. +9.056 A.
Fractional Roll=973, no.
D20=11, result=20. Rotterdam falls, both German defenders eliminated.
Germany loses her engineering division and sees 4 attackers flipped.

[al] Pretty solid attack given the weather and the river. Rough outcome for everyone, though.

[ax] Yes, but was an abscess that had to be cleaned out ... painful as it might be. Could have been a lost worse so I'll take it. I knew going in it was pretty much 50/50 that I'd lose the engineering division with (only) a 65% chance of taking the city. That's about a 2 out 3 shot. Good but (very) far from a sure thing.

[ax] NED sub is overrun. Where do you wish it to base?

[al] Gibraltar. If it's not allowed to stack there, Liverpool. If it's not allowed to stack there, then... er... Belfast.

[ax] Gibraltar it is.

[al] Great, thanks.

[ax] Air Rebase.
(1) Germany. Bf-109 (5 a2a) from Amsterdam to Brussels.
(2) Italy. CR-42 (4 a2a) from Karlsruhe, Germany to Brussels.
(3) Japan. D3A1 (val) from Sasebo, Japan to China[82, 142].

[ax] HQ Reorg. Germany. von Leeb. 105 mm arty div, LXII inf corps (both in Rotterdam).

[ax] Since there's no chance of the turn ending, I'll go ahead an end my impulse and pass the game file back over to you.

[ax] Game file 04-MAR-APR-1940-AL-08.zip sent.

[al] Got it.

Rotterdam.

{Note that there was an additional factor of ground support from the German NAV that I didn't considered but did add in to the assault. So that's why the final odds are a bit better than what I had estimated in planning.}

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5. The Western Front.

Note. Italy and France are still NOT at war with each other. However, the Italian fighter will be useful to help with the RAF and Belgium fighter.

Good attack, although I think someone should explain to German ground strikers that there are these things called bombs, and that they should be dropped somewhere near the enemy....

(It is hopeless trying to explain that to the Japanese.)

Although I guess one out of five is not that bad in snow.

Don't be too reluctant with the Japanese in China. War with the US is a long way away. The best way to free up the Chinese army is to knock out the Chinese; I have long thought that the best way to do that is to knock out the Communists, who don't have the defensive depth of the Nationalists.

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

Good attack, although I think someone should explain to German ground strikers that there are these things called bombs, and that they should be dropped somewhere near the enemy....

(It is hopeless trying to explain that to the Japanese.)

Although I guess one out of five is not that bad in snow.

Also, Luftwaffe fighter pilots need some advice and more training too. I've lost two Bf-109 fighter units and two pilots to 1 RAF fighter with pilot saved.

To say the least, Luftwaffe performance in the West has been maddening below expected.

Also, literally rolling the dice, or die, has this to offer. On the ground strike roll against Gort the die looked to "settle" on a 2, but at the very last moment turned to a 6. Now that's something you don't get with a random number generator! Talking about on the inside going in a few milliseconds from YES!!! to oh ...

ORIGINAL: CourtenayDon't be too reluctant with the Japanese in China. War with the US is a long way away. The best way to free up the Chinese army is to knock out the Chinese; I have long thought that the best way to do that is to knock out the Communists, who don't have the defensive depth of the Nationalists.

I can stomach a 50/50 but less than 40%, unless it's something incredible like Gibraltar or Leningrad, is a bit too low for my tastes. But, I agree a little more aggression is warranted. If not, then I'm afraid junior Japanese officers will take it into their own hands to do goodness knows what ...

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #8.

[al] Hrm. On the one hand, I want to end the turn, sooner the better. On the other, I'd rather you do the hard work of fighting the Belgians in Antwerp than see them vanish at the end of the turn. And also if you end the turn the initiative shifts.

[ax] That's why I like this game. Lots of subtle and not so subtle decision points.

[al] Indeed.

[ax] Though, I'm not happy with the RAF having shot down two of my fighter units and killing both pilots!

[ax] That was just plain mean.

[al] Yes, the ol' chaps did some fine work.

[al] Gotta learn the Luftwaffe not to mess with the RAF, dontcha know,

[ax] Well, maybe they'll learn that lesson over Belgium and France and not have to learn it over England. But one never knows. 😉

[al] Haha - wait, what was that part you said about England?

[al] 😉

[ax] One never knows do they. Well, that is the one on the other side of the aggressors. 😁

[al] No DoWs or special actions.

[al] Impulses:
- China land;
- CW naval;
- USSR & France combined;
- USA pass;

[al] No port attacks or naval air.

[al] French Naval moves: Cruiser Suffren sails from Bingerville to 4 box Gulf of Guinea.

[al] Okay, only Commonwealth naval moves to go (or 95% of them or so, nothing much).

[al] Indian Ocean:
- Queens sail from Mombasa to 0 box Cape Naturaliste, pick up Sydney MIL.

[al] Also Indian Ocean: 1 cp from Calcutta to 0 box Cape Naturaliste.

[al] Convoys (Belgian cps from Belgian Congo, Dutch cps from Dutch Guyana):
- 1 Belgian cp to each of Gulf of Guinea, Cape Verde Basin;
- 1 Dutch cp to each of Mouths of the Amazon, Cape Verde Basin;
- 2 Dutch cp to Cape St Vincent;
- 4 Dutch cp to E Coast (not set to sentry);
- 1 cp from Gibraltar to Bay of Biscay;
- 1 cp from Liverpool to Bay of Biscay.

[al] Atlantic Ocean (transports):
- TRS from Liverpool to 0 box E Coast, picks up Canadian GARR;
- TRS from Plymouth to 0 box Cape Verde Basin, picks up Sierra Leone TERR.

[al] Atlantic Ocean (convoy "escorts"):
- HMS Hermes, Valiant, Hawkins, and Terror from Halifax to North Atlantic 0 box;
- HMS Norfolk drops from 3 box to 1 box North Atlantic;
- HMS Exeter from Liverpool to 4 box North Atlantic;
- HMS Southampton drops from 3 box to 1 box Bay of Biscay;
- HMS Ramilles and Erebus from Liverpool to 0 box Bay of Biscay;
- HMS London from Liverpool to 4 box Bay of Biscay;
- Dutch cruiser Java, HMS Dorsetshire, and HMS Belfast from Liverpool to 0 box, 1 box, and 4 box Cape St Vincent.

[al] The Italians are in luck: the fleet in Port Said is out of supply. They can't trace to Wavell or Suez in this weather, and because the French aren't at war with Italy, they can't provide supply through the E Med.

[ax] Sneaky Italians. Exactly the way el duce foresaw it. Well, not really. 😎

[al] RN sends a task force containing HMS Courageous, Hood, Renown, Liverpool, and HMAS Shropshire and Canberra from Gibraltar into 3 box Italian Coast.

[al] Oh, and also HMS Repulse.

[ax] [:(]

[al] I'm not expecting much from them in the storms, though. Only a 20% chance of finding.

[al] Naval combats: CW can initiate in North Sea and Italian Coast, and will do so in both.

[al] Starting with North Sea. CW won't fly any planes. Will Germany?

[ax] Negative.

[al] Search rolls are CW 8, Ge 2. Royal Navy task force is still searching around the Dutch coast, but the old German battlewagons caught wind of their operations and slipped off somewhere else.

[ax] [:D]

[al] On to the Italian coast.

[al] Weather is storms, so no planes.

[al] Search rolls are CW 3, It 3. Both sides 3-boxes are thiiiiiiis close to finding each other.

[al] But no combat.

[al] Because storm.

[al] Any CAP for strat bombing?

[ax] Negative.

[al] Allies fly no strat raids.

[al] Any CAP for ground strikes?

[ax] Negative.

[al] No Allied ground strikes.

[al] Land stuff:
- USSR rails 50th Army from Vilna (East Poland) to Omsk.
- USSR 4th Army marches from Minsk to Vilna.
- Red Army adjusts positions in and around Bessarbia and southern Poland.
- KMT shuffles around in southern China.

{Here's a second unit my opponent has just railed from Europe to Omsk. What in the world is he up to?}

[al] No land attacks, as you might imagine.

[al] No rebases.

[al] No reorg.

[ax] Go ahead if you wish and roll for end of turn and weather if applicable

[ax] If turn ends both German chits go into offensive

[al] Turn ends on a roll of 2 or less.

[al] End of turn roll is a 6.

[al] Turn continues.

[al] Weather roll is 4 +1 = 5: Storm/Storm/Rain Fine/Rain/Fine

[ax] Interesting.

[al] Looks like the kind of weather German subs like to sail out in. (I say that figuratively: I'm sure the sailors are miserable.)

[al] Game file sent.

[ax] Got it.

USSR Units Railed from Europe to Omsk. What's Going On?

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #11. Weather.

Except for the north monsoon (southern China), the weather is horrible for the axis; especially if I want to clean out the two flipped Belgium corps holding Antwerp (more on that later).

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #11. Nazi-Soviet Pact.

Interesting ... Germany could break the pact ... however I don't want to have to worry about the Soviets just yet. And besides, letting me break the pact could be some devious trick by my opponent. Whether or not it is, I'm keeping the pact in place.

This ends our gaming for the night. However, I do have three more posts of analysis for this impulse.

But first, my "dogs of war" need to go out.

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #11. Wargaming (1/3). Kweilin, China.

Wargaming is where I make a copy of the game file and run through potential moves in order to evaluate and analyze them. For this upcoming impulse I did just that and will share that analysis with you. First off is whether or not to assault the Nationalist 3-stack holding Kweilin.

Note that anything move or action I take with a copy, in this case for wargaming analysis, is not official.

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #11. Wargaming (2/3). Antwerp, Belgium.