15Dec41 - Saburo Ushiroku - Economics Ministry
The First Meeting with Juji ....
Saburo prepped through the night for his first meeting with the Chamberlain. WorkForce. What a monster.
While no fan of the National Eugenic Law (国民優生法 Kokumin Yūsei Hō) passed in 1940, the associated programs that Katsuko Tojo, General Tojo's wife had started (7 children per wife) were things that needed to be kept in play. IJ needed all the children it could to replace the losses of the future. The birth rate needed to return to the 30/1000 rate it had been in the mid-30’s. The last few years had seen a dramatic slump, and with the Late General’s demise his wife no longer had the energy or position to keep it going.
But the Kokumin Yusei Ho only addresses the future, the now is far more critical. Foreign workers/militia are going to have to shoulder more. How? Where? Well, for one thing, garrisons. We cannot afford to divert any of our manpower from front line troops into a garrison position. Our MAN ally is going to have to shoulder that burden more, and that means more independent units. Will that be enough?
The follow-on analysis says: “No”. Using IJA estimates of needed garrisons applied against the current plans reveals the need for approximately 10,000 squads in garrison activity only for the SRA and currently stated NRA goals. Our MAN ally simply does not have the population to fill our future requirements. And what if our goals expand?
We need to find more bodies, but where? He shares all of his findings and lack of solutions with Juji. Juji merely nods, asks if he can take the analysis with him (of course, note: in future always make copy for the Chamberlain).
Juji then shifts the discussions to another topic: Aircraft production. Saburo shudders. Juji’s line is to clarify how the production numbers are being derived, at which Saburo states that he is getting multiple and conflicting information. It is moot now as capacity is so shockingly low, but as we move forward it will start to matter a great deal. At the moment, he is using the latest model list from Jiro, then watching the pool and usage numbers he is extrapolating needs. Juji opines that something better is needed to which Saburo heartily agrees as he is no expert nor does he have a background to predict war-time losses. Juji smiles and states that he isn’t sure who is, but agrees help is needed. He will undertake to get this resolved. Saburo mentions at this time the large inventories of obsolete engines, inventories that at the moment represent a lot of waste. At this point, Juji sensing that the issues here are even deeper than so far divulged asks for more details on this beyond what was shared previously with HIE.
Saburo shares with him his findings;
Aircraft Production
Dismal is a charitable description. Criminal is a word that could also be applied. At the start of the war, production capacity of the only contemporary fighter, A6M2, was a paltry 2/day plus 1/day of the Ki-43-Ic. To fill a group with new aircraft meant +20 days, over 3 weeks!!! And beyond the fleet Carriers only 2 ½ groups of A6M fighters and 1 group of Ki-43 fighters were in service. Additionally, air production was broken into 20 models; the consolidation changed that to 11. Well, those poor decisions already been addressed by HIE. However even with into the new year, the effects will still be felt.
Fighter Production – now consolidated into a single model (which helped substantially), by the new year we will be achieving 9 AC/day and getting to 10 AC/day in by Feb. Engines for this production will make also 9/day; but while there were 11 aircraft factories being expanded, there were only 3 engine factories for the Ha-35 engine with no real way to build more. The initial Ha-35 Aircraft goal was for the Aircraft build rate to achieve 14 AC/day, which would happen early in the first month of the new year … but the engine production expansion cannot meet that and thus stocks of the engines will run out long before the engine production matches. The Ha-35 is used in the A6M, B5N, and the new Ki-45 FB. All 3 models are front line and badly needed.
Bomber Production – similar issues are happening with the bombers and all of the other aircraft types; aircraft rates are ramping up faster than the associated engine rates. One reason for the lack of engines is that the new 9-Star engine for the next generation of aircraft models has been prioritized, the other is that there is simply a fixed number of engine factories, materials to build more simply do not exist within the likely war timeframe …. ARGH!!!
Juji silently digested all of this, then nodded his head; “Yes, now I see the issues better. Complex and intertwined; we have to carefully balance the present against future demands. I think that we will want you to continue to control this production, but yes, we also need to get you more and better inputs. Be assured that this will happen.
Saburo then opens the next topic with the preface: “It gets worse …”
High Octane Fuel
Aircraft are putting pressure on the economy in many ways, with refining capacity being another example. Gasoline can be made, but in a standard refinery of the 1940’s it is inefficient. Think of it like this: for every kg of AvGas made, it takes 1.6kg of oil; 0.6 kg is lost. It is actually not that simple, and not all oil can be made into AvGas, but of the portions that can be made, there is an overall loss (TCC during this era which results in a fair amount of flare gas being created. FCC has just been invented but was neither widely in use nor had it yet achieved the efficiency of the modern era).
(Based on the success of the pilot plant, the first commercial fluid catalytic cracking plant (known as the Model I FCC) began processing 13,000 barrels per day (2,100 m3/d) of petroleum oil in the Baton Rouge refinery on May 25, 1942, just four years after the CRA consortium was formed and in the midst of World War II. A little more than a month later, in July 1942, it was processing 17,000 barrels per day (2,700 m3/d).)
Now, there are ways to improve that efficiency; specific processes can be added to the refinery that will improve the efficiency (Alkylation processes to re-combine the flare gas into useful products). So we need two things, simply more refining as we need more AvGas. But, we also need more efficiency, which means upgrades at current refineries. So while we are (and will) recovering a large quantity of refining capacity in the SRA, we need to ensure that we have the right parts and have upgraded some refining to improve AvGas production.
(Bottom line, capture is not enough, a certain amount of repair/expansion is going to be required. Further, there is a total refining requirement to meet mission/day. The catch is that in-game, it is hard/impossible to differentiate new and repaired capacity. So for gameplay we will just assume that the total refining has to increase.)
All of this is still with AvGas being in the 80-100 RON levels. This is nowhere near the 140+ RON that the allies enjoy. The ability to upgrade to this level is simply not in the game (war) timeframe. The refinery in Singapore was the only one with ‘modern’ capabilities for AvGas in Asia, but it was sized to provide only for the RAF-FE requirements … about 5% of the IJ projected needs. Historically, this was run by the IJ at the 80-90 RON standard they used which increased overall production. While the IJ can copy the technology from Singapore, the timeline to do the reverse engineering, pilot testing, commercial scale-up and then release even in a war time situation is +2 years. That means start building in early ’44 with capacity coming online in late ’45 … that’s using national priority on this project and allocating all specialty steels to this.
Juji reviews this data and the need. The balancing technology, Wet-Gas is not nearly as efficient, but it is an alternative and it does work. To allocate a national priority here would mean pulling back delivery on aircraft design and gun upgrades; items with no alternative. IJ cannot do everything, and this is one that she will consciously choose NOT to do. AvGas will be produced in quantity, but at 80 - 90 RON standards …. Wet-Gas will need to be implemented to meet performance requirements. He needs to review this with HIE, but the decision is obvious. And of course this needs to be transmitted to the Aircraft and Engine teams soonest so that they know the direction to take.
Juji rocks back a bit, and looks up. “You have been busy.” Saburo acknowledges the intended compliment, but says that there is just so many moving parts and then the disconnects are rampant. Juji studies the young man for a moment, a moment that stretches out for what seems like an eternity. But patience is a virtue well cultivated in this culture, along with politeness, the two constitute key pillars of everything “Nihon”. Saburo shows no signs of impatience as he awaits Juji’s final comments. They are brief, that he needs to apprise HIE and that he thanks Saburo for his efforts thus far. A great compliment, Saburo now knows he is getting it done …
At least for these ships . . .
A mod is an ongoing process, a personal mod is one that never really ends as the user is evolving as well. 