warspite1 wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 8:07 pm
A truly predictable response. Instead of your one liner responses that are designed to deflect from the fact this 'plan' is total fantasy, try providing the detail for this 'plan' that you've allegedly "wargamed successfully everytime you've tried it".... (this despite the fact you didn't realise destroyers as troop carriers wouldn't work, Midway needs to be taken, you couldn't transfer Zeros from Japanese held islands, you didn't have enough transports for more than one island and you've consistently had to change your mind about how the KB need to be used compared to historically).....
I've corrected you on this repeatedly. What I said was that I've successfully captured the HI in every Pacific War - style game I've ever played (so have plenty of other players). I haven't gamed this idea, however. But I'm making a clinching case for it.
You know exactly what I am talking about with the Bettys.
Evidently not.
Give us the detail.
I've answered most of this over and over.
1. When do the destroyers head for Maui?
The destroyers have a range of 1400 miles at full speed. They only need 400 to sail in and out of the detection zone. That leaves them 1000 miles of slack.
2. Where do they halt pending the final run-in to the island? How far from Maui?
They want to start the run 200 miles out.
3. What time does the run-in to Maui start?
Dusk of course.
4. What time do the Betty's take-off from the Marshalls?
In time to synch with the first strike.
5. What time are the Betty's due to arrive off the HI and where do they hold such that they don't alert the defenders on HI?
In synch with the first strike. If they get there early, they hold out of detection range.
6. What time do the destroyers reach Maui?
Probably about 5 hours after departing. Around 11:00pm. Note that night is a bit longer than day on December 7, 1941, in Hawaian waters.
7. Where do the troops land?
Where the pathfinders guide them.
8. How long does it take to unload the two battalions plus their transport?
No transport. I would guess about a couple of hours. But they have lots of slack.
9. How far is the airfield, that can handle Bettys, from the invasion point? This is critical if you don’t want to throw away the Bettys and the Zeros you are denuding the carriers of.
They have all night to get into perfect strike position. Guided by the pathfinders.
10. Where are the US troops on the island?
It's Saturday night in peacetime on Maui. They're partying. Unless there is an alert - in which case the pathfinders would wave the DD off, and the invasion would have to take place in the morning.
In fact, if there is an alert, the whole thing might be postponed, just as it would be if the carriers were out of port.
11. What coastal defences are available to the defenders?
Whatever they are, they are unlikely to be manned without an alert order, and the invasion will be waved off in that case.
12. What time do the surviving Bettys run out of fuel and start crashing into the sea/land if the airfield isn't taken?
The Bettys have 400 miles of slack in their range. They can stay up for a while.
13. When in the day do the destroyers laden with fuel, spare parts, engines, ammunition, bombs/torpedoes and ground crew leave the KB and head for Maui? Obviously until the airfield is taken you are getting no Japanese aircraft on Maui (apart from those that have crashed out of fuel) and even if the airfield is captured intact, the Japanese aircraft are empty sitting ducks until they can be serviced and re-supplied.
They head back once the raid is underway.
And the air forces on Oahu are not in mid-war condition. Their capabilities are better understood at this time by how they performed on Luzon
. And the Japanese know the full plan and all contingencies. The Americans will take days to even figure out what's up.
14. Have you decided what you are doing with the KB yet? You have the benefit of hindsight as you know the Wake invasion will initially be a disaster and you know six of the KB (inc two carriers) will be required for that.
15. What about Midway? What ships, have you earmarked for that operation and in particular, which carriers will be needed to provide air cover?
16. Following Pearl, where were the KB used next? Have you allowed for losses over Midway and the aircraft you’ve sent to Maui?
The carriers will make a visit to Midway on the way back - assisting that invasion.
Remember. The real life Japanese knew the desperate need for secrecy and surprise. Your 'plan' simply drives a coach and horses through this by flying Bettys (that are somehow timed to coincide with the carrier attack) to HI (and they can't be early because this will alert the defenders before the carrier planes - and they can't be late because they will be facing an alert defender) and sailing two destroyer flotillas around the HI.
Risk. Reward. The risk is low and the reward is huge.
So please stop stalling and tell us how this 'plan', that needs perfect timing and co-ordination, works in order to ensure that the Japanese don't lose 40+ precious Bettys and their even more precious aircrew, two destroyer flotillas and two battalions of troops before the war has properly started. Oh and also that ensures the carrier attack is not fatally compromised by one or more of these elements being detected.
Exactly: They are risking two battalions and two air groups (although the planes could run for it easily). The reward is catching two carriers in port and delaying the US response by two years.
