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Probability of a successful formation change is now shown on Unit-List. 

... overheard a conversation at the Rhine Taverne:
[ ... ] If the number is in black, next to the formation symbol, below the image of the unit, it is [ ... ] the % chance of making a formation change for the unit. Normally it is not shown as the unit has 100% chance of successful change, but, if it is in the threat zone of enemy units, this probability is reduced and there is a small adjustment made to the chance for unit quality. [ ... ] Once you have read this [ ... ], you will discover ways to use cavalry as a threat to disorder units trying to change formation rather than having to charge with the cavalry. It opens up a whole new dimension to the game.

Maintain the organization of your army, as disorder can significantly impact its effectiveness in combat. Maintain C&C at all times, even sacrificing minor tactical gains. The Strength dialog under the Info menu shows the % of the units in good order. [ ... ] Some seasoned players consider this disorder metric crucial for winning battles.

Select Strength to see the current "manpower"
strength of both side's forces. If Fog of War is in
effect for a side, its strengths will appear only during
its own Player Turn.

Jason Cawley wrote:
[...] When being pressed, however, the men in the second rank will often be in disorder - a portion that is - because they have just withdrawn and are still trying to re-order. That's ok, if there are ordered men you want them upfront obviously, as the first priority. But do watch out if your second rank is mostly disordered - the whole formation may soon need help, because it is losing its counterattack and mobility / hole-plugging abilities.

When leadership is good and you are careful about command and control distances, operating on proper frontages (meaning not too long), you can generally expect the second rank to reorder about as fast as the first needs relief. But strong enemy pushes / charges, or simply particular 'incidents' of 'bad luck' on fire combat results and rally rolls, may occasionally bring about a faster decline into disorder.

You can track such things by using the BG 'Strength' dialog box. That lists a percentage next to each formation in your army, showing the portion of the men in its sub-units currently in 'good order'. If that is reading 67% or so, or better, the unit is fine. As it drops to 50, it means some pressure and hot action, but nothing to be too worried about. Below 50 for more than a single turn, and the unit is likely to need support within the hour, if not right away. [...]