Caging the Tiger~ Rader (J) vs. GreyJoy (A)

[rader]

Hello all,

I don't have a lot of time to write AARs between work (busy these days) and 2 games of WITP:AE in progress, but I thought I'd put up a post and ask for opinions.

Situation: Mid-June 1942. We've taken the usual perimeter except Manila still holds out. China is pretty much toast except for Chungking which will probably be forever untakeable because it generates supplies and respawns.

We've taken most of India (basically everything up to the reinforcement line just "south" of Delhi. Plus Diego Garcia & Socotra island. The allies are pretty quiet, except they just launched what looks like a raid in the Gilberts (a few paradrops and APD landings, a few empty APs/AKs sunk) but not much else. I don't know if this is a prelude to a more major operation, or just a feint. Also a bit of action in the Aleutians, but I really don't care about that. I'm much more worried about an allied move in the Pacific or maybe North from Darwin (although Australia seems unusually qiet too).

Haven't seen the allied CVs in months... no idea where they are, but they don't appear to be in India, so I'm guessing they are in the Pacific - or maybe at Cape Town.

Although with Socotra, we've pretty much cut India off, it still has limited access to Abadan and Aden. It seems well nigh impossible to totally cut this route. The KB might have been able to do it, but I didn't want to tangle with the 200+ fighters he's got in Karachi, and it seems silly leaving it way over there while there while the rest of map map is exposed. So I've been relying on a leaky blockade of subs and the ocasional DD raid.

In order to cut off Karachi for good, what I really need are airbases closer to it. But to get any closer means triggering around 6 divisions of allied units, mostly ariving at Aden. It is very hard to justify the math of giving the allies 6 free divisions, so I haven't made a move so far. The first goal was to build up Surat (level 9, see below) so that I could at least bomb Karachi and contest allied air in the region. Now that I've done that, I am contemplating if I want to:

A) Go for the jugular in India, or

B) Keep the leaky blockade in place and let him try to counterattack at some point (1943?)

There are 2 real questions:

1.) Can I take all of India? He's evidently got lots of troops and airforce there (over 100 units), so I'm not really sure this is a certainty.
2.) Either way, can I justify the cost of giving the allies 6 division by crossing the line.

I don't know the answer to either of these questions. Another consideration is that by going for the jugular, I might be exposing myself elsewhere. I'm pretty much on the fence 50/50. I actually think the "smarter" thing to do is sit tight, but I might later regret not going for it if only beacuse it would be fun to try.

Thoughts are appreciated, but please don't give away any information if you read/post in GreyJoy's AAR of course. Keep in mind that I actually don't want an autovictory. I'm just trying to do long term damage to the allies so I can live until 1946.

[Bullwinkle58]

I read and comment in your opponent's AAR. I referred him to this link, so I refer you to it as well. It's in the open forum

tm.asp?m=2616532&mpage=1&key=Emergency%2CReenforcements?

That is the results of my Emergency Reenforcement package tests from last winter for India. There are similar threads for NZ, Oz, and the West Coast. The India thread has screen shots of each of the units the Allies recieve, including the Ind Supply Convoy which dumps devices, including aircraft, into the pool.

Without giving away anything, I would also point you to the manual where it details when Aden opens to the Med. Before that, the Allies have whatever ships are in the Mideast or what they can sneak in past any blockades, and not much more. Few or no (don't recall) Allied ships arrive ffrom the queue in Aden in 1942. So, can he get the "new" divisions to India given what you've sunk already?

Also, to the extent they arrive understrength, fairly large amounts of supply are needed to pull devices out of the pools to flesh out the reenforcement package units. To do that at all, the base (Karachi no doubt) needs to be at x2 supply in the first place. Additionally, given the pressure you've imposed on GJ, it's doubtful he has been able to do any of the Indian Army TOE upgrades in 1942. These are pretty substantial. I don't recall exactly which month they begin to roll in.

If you have not, and wish to know more, you should read Q-Ball and Canoerebel's twin AARs whereby a serious attenpt to take all of India was mounted. Q-Ball did not, however, know as you do that Socotra will not trigger the reenforcement package. He also went for Ceylon first, and lost valuable time. He was also playing a more experienced Allied opponent in CR.

To my knowledge no one has taken all of India (or Oz) in an AE PBEM game with an AAR. You could be the first. Exploring the mechanics of a Karachi bastion with the reenfocements activated would be interesting for the forum community to watch.

Also, it would be interesting to perhaps try very hard to take all of China and see if it could be done. Chunking is a bear, but it might be possible to batter it.

It would also be interesting to see if the USSR can be taken once China is not on the board.

It would also be interesting to see what can be done with Oz on a six-month time horizopn before auto-vic if you were so inclined after taking India, with its garrison requirements.

Not saying what you should do, as it's your game, but is toying with this one for four more years the way to go? Perhaps maybe see what you can do, let GJ fight gamely, end it, and let him start a new one with what he's learned.

Just a set of suggestions.

Good luck.

[rader]

Thanks Bulwinkle. I saw your test and ran one myself just to confirm Socotra and the airfiled across the strait from Surat (Bhanagar). Also read the canoe-Q-Ball AARs, although I only read this material after I was already in India. Had I understood that Karachi could virtually not be blockaded with the KB (and been aware of the 6 divisions [X(]), I probably would have gone to Australia instead [;)]. In fact, I'm convinced Australia is a better target. About a month ago game time, I strngly considered picking up the whole kit and sailing from Australia. but it's probably too late, and I'm sure he's built it up by now.

As far as Chingking goes, I doubt it could ever be taken unless by surprise. He gets 160 supplies per day. Surely not enogh to do much except conduct a static defense - but that I bet he could do indefinitely. Plus with respawn, would there ever actually be a chance to take it out? I doubt it. I bet they are still going to be sitting in their city 3 years hence. A bit silly - but I really can't complain.

As far as Russia goes, we have a HR that I have to give him a week warning. Thus he can evacuate the entire Russian army. With 400 infantry replacements per month and 2000+ supplies per day, he can effectively defend with the Russians indefinitely without losing much. And as I learend from the other AAR, even if he Russia loses a lot, they are still a "Bear" [:D] ~ No point going there.

It's not about playing with him... I am searching for the best route to victory. Although I don't really want an autovictory, just beacuse I think the most fun part of the Japanese is to desperately try to hold off the Allied hordes in 1944-1945. I think I will go for Karachi just to try it, even if it isn't a good idea. But in order to do it, I am firmly convinced that I need to be able to shut down his airfields. Without that, no offensive. Kind of like the Battle of Britain in India. Which, now that Surat is built up to level 9, can commence. We shall see what we can do...

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: rader

As far as Chingking goes, I doubt it could ever be taken unless by surprise. He gets 160 supplies per day. Surely not enogh to do much except conduct a static defense - but that I bet he could do indefinitely. Plus with respawn, would there ever actually be a chance to take it out? I doubt it. I bet they are still going to be sitting in their city 3 years hence. A bit silly - but I really can't complain.

But in order to do it, I am firmly convinced that I need to be able to shut down his airfields. Without that, no offensive. Kind of like the Battle of Britain in India. Which, now that Surat is built up to level 9, can commence. We shall see what we can do...

Two comments, then I'll watch:

1. Chungking is indeed an odd duck, but . . . the respawn is on a 30-day lag, so you have some time to batter the forts while he waits. The replacements come in at 1/3 TOE, and while they don't cost pool squads, the other 2/3 does, and that's a LOT of supply. The Chinese also get only 200 squads a month into the pool. It also takes time to pull them into LCUs. If you can hit the forts and make him rebuild over and over, that'll eat more supply. Suddenly 160/day isn't much. I think you could get him into a death spiral of fort-building and respawning junk divisions. It would be long, but not three years. And, again, I don't think anyone has done a Full China since arty was nerfed.

2. As an Allied only player, I'll just say that the never-ending Achilles heel is the fixed replacement rates for aircraft. Your BOB analogy works only to the extent that the Germans (you) get unlimited hardware, and the British have what they have. You have VPs to burn risking your bombers and Zeroes to destroy his air force. You could ground his Indian airforce in three weeks or less. Kill them in the air if possible and avoid the flak. But you can take him down as long as he's flying 1942 models and comes up to meet you. If he doesn't, kill them on the ground.

Won't comment on Russia as I know virtually nothing about its challenges in a 1942 invasion. I've only played them in 1945 when they are mighty.

[obvert]

I think Karachi is a must at this point. Think of all of the troops you'll wipe by taking it as the balance for the 6 divs he'll get back. It would take at least those 6 to try to land in India again once you have the entire coast.

If it's longevity you're looking for, take Karachi. The Allies have numerical superiority by 43 either way, but defending in India with no easy route to bring in forces seems like it would be much easier.

Anyway, if you're thinking deep future in this game, choose what you'd like to be defending in 44 and make your decision based on that. If you think your forces would be too thin to defend the entire coast then take everything but Karachi and start setting up the defense. If you like the look of a red coastline, go for it.

[obvert]

So. Curious what's been decided?

[rader]

Early August and I haven't advanced towards Karachi yet... Still trying to decide if I want to cross the line. I've been testing out the defenses and they look pretty stiff...

In the air, we've been able to attrit the Allied fighters ok, but he still has 200 reported, and we've lost around a 3:2 ratio -- not very good. I'm fairly confident I could eventually win the war in the air, but I'm rather worried about the 72 Spitfire VIIIs (& 72 Huricanes) he gets if I advance towards Karachi. That might just win him the air war. Bottom line: the necessary precondition of destroying the allied airforce has not been achieved.

Moreover, even when I am able to clear bombers through to hit his airfields, he has so much Flak at Karachi that I hae to fly so high that I can't hit anything anyway. Forget shutting down an airfield, I can't even make attrition work in my favour bombing undefended airfields packed with bombers. So even if I won the war in the air, would I really be able to cut off Karachi? It is almost impossible to cut off by sea, because ships arrive at Karachi the same turn they leave the off-map box. So even if I can win the air war, what does it actually get me? Only the KB parked right outside would win the war in the air...

And I'm by no means confident about being able to take Karachi even if I do advance. I haven't sent everything to India because with the KB there (now semi-blockading Karachi), I need to leave reasonable garisons in the Pacific. He has 120 units in India! I'm not sure I have the kind of strength that can really beat his army.

Thoughts on what to do? I'm flumuxed... I'm thinking about going for it just to give Greyjoy a fun game, but I am 60% sure it's a bad idea. [8|]

[Canoerebel]

I won't offer any suggestions since I'm active in GreyJoy's AAR, but I will say that all of us in there have been having alot of fun trying to figure out what you'e up to.

[erstad]

The Chinese also get only 200 squads a month into the pool

350/month as of some patch or another; but of course you have to have the supply to use them.

[rader]

The best description of it is probing the defenses and trying to win air superiority in order to decide if I have a realistic shot at it. Also seeing if I can keep it blockaded realistically. [;)]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I won't offer any suggestions since I'm active in GreyJoy's AAR, but I will say that all of us in there have been having alot of fun trying to figure out what you'e up to.

[rader]

Ok, I've made my decision. I'm not conviced that advancing on Karachi at this point is the right thing to do, but I'm going to do it anyway...

Through recent bombing tests, I've found that at about 18K ft, I can still do some damage to his airfields without getting obliterated by flak. Thus, I can attrit his air force even if he dosen't commit. Additionally, recently, I have been able to impose a stronger blockade on Karachi.

So, as soon as some reinforcements from the Philippines and the anti-aircraft form up at the jump off point, the operation to take Karachi is on (or at least invest it if it proves too well defended to be taken).

[Canoerebel]

Again, I won't comment since I'm an active reader in GreyJoy's AAR, but I'm enjoying the match between you guys.

[rader]

However, just this turn we spotted a huge allied fleet near Marcus moving west (see below). It definitely contains several task forces and definitely carriers. It could be a raid or diversion, but it is big enough that it looks more like an invasion (although no transports spotted yet).

If it is a legitimate invasion, possible targets include Marcus, the northern Marianas, the Bonins, or something beyond and a little bit crazy like the Ryukus/Formosa (I doubt the latter).

My overall defense plan has been to ignore the Solomons completely, building up only Rabaul and a few bases. I've also ignored the Gilberts completely, although I did retake Tarawa after an earlier abortive invasion. The Marshalls are also realtively undefended. When I decided to go for India, I decided that I would virtually ignore the outer perimiter, and focus on guarding a limited line that runs Kuriles-Japan-Bonins-Marcus-Marianas-Truk-Palau-West New Guinea-Timor-Java-Sumatra. I later decided that to leave Rabaul to the Allies would be a little too much of a gift, so I decided to extend the line just a bit to include Rabaul. But even Rabaul itself is practically undefended. For anything outside this line, I would make it look like I would defend it, but really there is practically no AV there, and I would give it up without much of a fight. Part of my thinking comes from my other game where the Allies ignored the Gilberts and Marshalls without any problems. Indeed, what is the purpose of holding the Marshalls at all? It just spreads out your troops, and once the Allies have carrier superiority, you are just creating a big POW camp.

With the KB near India, I have left sizeable troops in the Pacific, and defensive priority has gone to places that aren't easily defended by Netties. Thus, Marcus is fully stacked with 6500 troops (a little over the limit and almost all are combat engineers - the cream of the IJA), the Bonins are fairly well defended with about 500 AV for each of Iwo and Chichi, and most of the troops not in India are in the Marianas. With the allied fleet sighted, we're flying in more troops to Iwo, Chichi, and the Northern Marianas just in case, and the KB is going to retire from the Karachi area in case it is needed. I'm also activating most of the Japanese subs, which are now based at Truk and will race at full speed towards the allied fleet. Plus about half the IJN is based at Palau. They will stand by and monitor the situation...

[rader]

Here's a look at the overall situation.

[Canoerebel]

The Japanese look pretty in pink.  [:'(]

[rader]

I've found pink and light blue show up the best against the background...

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Japanese look pretty in pink.  [:'(]

[rader]

I think the prudent thing to do would be to wait to see what the allies are up to before crossing the reinforcement line, but I probably won't.. I'm eager to get going [:D]

[topeverest]

Rader,

I dont read your opponents AAR. So let me offer a thought.

Interesting dilema. You are well into India, but months (at best) away from conquering. Kb is FAR out of position to counter any American threat, which I dont need to remind you is the primary threat in this game. I am assuming the enemy has known where KB is for some time. That critical intel is a 'let' that your opponent is capitalizing on. What does it matter if you conquer India if you lose the Mariana's?

I have played this game a number of times, usually as Allies. Let me offer this: If you lose the Mariana's now, the war is over very very very early. The enemy doesnt have to take an other asset the enire game should he desire. The 29's will do the rest. He also can constrict your booty trail and work backwards to take isolated assets. I dont want to beat on you and your strategy as you have considerable upside in India, but leaving CENTPAC open to an invasion is a very very serious issue. You also have a limited window to retake it if it is lost. Let me say it again, you cannot afford to lose the mariana's...dont lose them! You must make a maximum effort with your entire fleet and all the LBA you can muster if the enemy chooses the Marianas. If they dont, you need to force it consumate with the critical importance it has. Whereever he lands, you MUST throw him back either through the classic defnesive coutnerpulse, or a bonified counterattack in the weeks after the assault.

IMHO, your game has reached a critical moment where you MUST divert away from your strategy. I'd be praying that your opponent is bluffing and doesnt choose the Mariana's. Unfortunately, the evidence suggests that is where he is going.

[rader]

Actually, to a large extent I'm trying to suck him into attacking somewhere by having the KB visibly out of position. In my other game, the Allies sat on their butts doing nothing until November 1944. Now in early 1945, his fleet is so large that I really can't contest it and he can take everything at will (and make absolutely rapid progress by the way). IMHO, the best way for the Japanese to win is to force the allies to fight in 1942. (And if fact, I think it is a bit of a broken/awesomely powerful strategy for the allies to sit tight until 1944. They probably still have enough time to win the game.)

Yes, if I lose the Marianas the game is practically over. But the Marianas are rather well garisoned and do have significant land based air. I would love him to come for the Marianas at this point and tangle with all Japanese land based naval bomber units, even without the KB around. That would just be silly of him at this point.

I want the allies to come somewhere where I can attrit them while I still have superiority. He might be able to take a couple of the Marianas islands with his invasion fleet, but there are now 6 fairly large airbases built up there. If he takes only a couple, we will be able to bomb him at our leisure, sink any supply ships, and eventually force the surrender of the invading allied armies. Bring it on [:D]

Marcus, Wake, or the Bonins are actually more dangerous because it will be much harder to use land-based air to cut off his landing forces. Only the KB can fully blockade these places, and it's much harder to bomb them into dust. Thus, I'm putting priority on reinforcing the Bonins at this point.

ORIGINAL: topeverest

Rader,

I dont read your opponents AAR. So let me offer a thought.

Interesting dilema. You are well into India, but months (at best) away from conquering. Kb is FAR out of position to counter any American threat, which I dont need to remind you is the primary threat in this game. I am assuming the enemy has known where KB is for some time. That critical intel is a 'let' that your opponent is capitalizing on. What does it matter if you conquer India if you lose the Mariana's?

I have played this game a number of times, usually as Allies. Let me offer this: If you lose the Mariana's now, the war is over very very very early. The enemy doesnt have to take an other asset the enire game should he desire. The 29's will do the rest. He also can constrict your booty trail and work backwards to take isolated assets. I dont want to beat on you and your strategy as you have considerable upside in India, but leaving CENTPAC open to an invasion is a very very serious issue. You also have a limited window to retake it if it is lost. Let me say it again, you cannot afford to lose the mariana's...dont lose them! You must make a maximum effort with your entire fleet and all the LBA you can muster if the enemy chooses the Marianas. If they dont, you need to force it consumate with the critical importance it has. Whereever he lands, you MUST throw him back either through the classic defnesive coutnerpulse, or a bonified counterattack in the weeks after the assault.

IMHO, your game has reached a critical moment where you MUST divert away from your strategy. I'd be praying that your opponent is bluffing and doesnt choose the Mariana's. Unfortunately, the evidence suggests that is where he is going.

[PaxMondo]

I agree, looking at their position ... Bonins could be a target.  Far more dangerous than the Marianas and those too are pretty scary.  Going to be interesting to watch if your LBA can hurt them enough.