The Bear and the Wolf - Keunert vs. Olivier

[Keunert]

I decided to start an aar of my side of the game against Olivier. It is now end of august and Stalingrad has already fallen. Between east of the Volga and Rostov a huge gap is open and the Axis is storming south. Soviet troop level is around 400'000 while the Axis is at an impressive 760'000.

We lost about four armies in different pockets, inclusive their HQ and the last weeks had been nothing but blood sweat and tears. Still the last few days have fueled us with hope. The air war is constantly reducing axis air units while we our units stay about the same. and for the first day since the start of Case Blue we actually conduct succsessfull counterattacks.

South of Rostov we completely destroyed two Panzer regiments and one artillery bat, north of Stalingrad the Axis suffered badly after the 5th TA counterattacked. So there is hope that the Axis will somehow overstretch itself and we be able to stabilize our defense within the next month or two.

[Keunert]

Here the map at the end of turn 31:

[Keunert]

Current situation:

Looks like Olivier plays historically and accepts the Don as the final line north of Stalingrad. We stripped our troops, set them on low supply and send the 5 TA and the 40 A to the area north west of Stalingrad. Both armies have recieved reinforcements and 5 TA is on replacement priority. Both armies are strong and are engaging the Krauts. This region is protected by heavy air support to minimize tank losses.

In Stalingrad a newly formed and completely inexperienced army is trying to guard the east bank of the Wolga.

South of Rostow we are moving back, railing units into positions further back.

Between Stalingrad and Rostow is a huge gap. We will think of brining there the weakest of the Rostow armies to protect the rail lines and counterattack the axis units.

[Keunert]

Olivier played very well. Even better than in his first try. He was able to keep losses low. Exposed stacks almost always recieved some card bonus that hurt my counterattacks really bad. But even though the losses are low with infantry his airforce and mobile forces are feeling attrition. I have not payed too many units with cards, but still i have to pay already 45 or more pp to play such a card. i can only imagine what Olivier has to pay for additional tanks and planes by now.

Most important is his all time low with divebomber: they hurt my mobile forces really bad. the last few turns those attacks were rather inefficient due to low numbers, interdiction and AA support.
Tanks are also low, even more so after the elimination of two tanks units this weeks due to counterattacks and i guess low supply on his part.

Worn out Panzer armies and less air support will hopefully hinder his offensive power quite a bit.

[Keunert]

Infantry, medium and heavy tank assets:

[Keunert]

This time i have that many prestige points that i cashed them in for pp three times already. Holding Rostov was a good one and then i was just lucky with some of the objectives. Oil is in it's current implementation a no brainer so far. neither side had anything to worry. more important is my supply situation. according to Olivier he has no problem with them.

[Keunert]

Turn 34

Two new issues in the reports screen: Stavka issued a no step back order. every city i lose from now on will lower my prestige. already lost my first prestige point. On a better note: reinforcements went up! and i need'em badly.

[Keunert]

Turn 34

Around Stalingrad 40A recieves a new leader and 5 TA gets ready to hit the few hexes that aren't fortified (done by some jerk that doesn't want to get mentioned).

[Keunert]

Turn 34

Former Rostow defender 51A is sent to defend the rail lines connecting Stavka with the caucasian oil fields.

47A and 24A will soon feel the power of german tanks. sitting off any railroads and being low on trucks some of them will most likely be surrounded within the next turns.

18A gets reinforcements and shells the Leibstandarte to lower their AP for next turn.

Overall i think the german forces recoverd supply wise and we will soon have another retreat here.

[Keunert]

TURN 35 & 36

Mud hit on turn 36 once more. Olivier had a lot of mud to fight with early in the campaign. but lately he enjoyed a great russian summer.

In turn 35 51A, defender of the Engels/Tiblisi railline spotted two mechanized units of 13th Panzer. We send our troops forward and managed to encircle them on turn 36. Both units were destroyed, killing 2500 Panzergrenadiere and lot's of tracked vehicles.

Don't laugh, but this has been our biggest success in a single turn in german unit hunting so far.

[Keunert]

Turn 37

Some statistics on the current situation and they do give me some hope.

After weeks of losing men and material we are currently in phase of refit. During the last three weeks our total level went up from 369K to 447k, almost 80'000 men more! And just 4 days ago our reinforcements went up, giving us hope that this trend will continue.

[Keunert]

Turn 37

Air units show the same picture. Soviet fighter numbers are constant since the beginning of Case Blue, while our divebombers slowly recover from the few and costly missions they have made. German fighter numbers went down by a third. the jumps in numbers clearly exceed german reinforcement capabilities and thus show Olivier spending pp to buy more units.

Most important is the loss of half of the Luftwaffe's divebombers. Those Stukas rained death on my tanks. i created quite a few aa units and nowadays every turn ends with tanks standing under cover of AA units and within range of fighter interception. Stukas numbers slightly climbed, hinting at another Olivier shopping tour. my guess is that he spent around 140pp for those two cards.

[Keunert]

Turn 37

Tank numbers hit the lowpoint early August but are climbing since then. I guess one third of them are with 5 TA. Just before the arrival of the 6 Pz, Olivier was down by 600 medium tanks. Now he has stabilized at 1200. Still a lot of offensive power on his side.

[Keunert]

Turn 38

The Axis is on the attack again. 18A earned some medals with results around 1/3 losses. I am slowly getting used to see this as a good result. The killing of 500 SS troops is most noteable.

[Keunert]

Turn 38

And finally a hold result with some more SS losses. But don't get too excited... those two results were just the best ones, there were a few attacks without any german losses at all. Olivier is quite a caring commander. His attacks are always well chosen, have lot's of artillery and air support and he always attacks with Landsers. I don't think i have seen axis minors fighting over a dozen times in the entire campaign.

[Keunert]

Turn 38

North of Stalingrad 5TA enjoys the merits of my love: replacement priority, lot's of artillery and a lot of support from Front Command and Stavka. And we start to slowly rebuild the 5TA's tank corps. this is quite important: if i play a tank drive card i want to effect as many units as possible. a complete tank corps consists of 4 units: 1 mech inf, 3 tank brigades. currently there are three complete corps ready.

Two of them attacked this turn, sending three german inf reg back. after this attack with rather low losses the 5 TA units pull back behind the lines of the 40A infantry. this way they are out of range of german artillery and under the umbrella of the different AA units there.

Next turn the next attacks will follow up. We plan to put as much pressure here as possible. Maybe forcing Olivier to bring up more tanks here. Maybe we will tempt him to do a big tank battle here. That would hamper his attack in the south.

[rominet]

ORIGINAL: Keunert

Turn 37

Some statistics on the current situation and they do give me some hope.

After weeks of losing men and material we are currently in phase of refit. During the last three weeks our total level went up from 369K to 447k, almost 80'000 men more! And just 4 days ago our reinforcements went up, giving us hope that this trend will continue.

So, if i am not wrong, there are about 2 months left to reach the Uranus scenario start situation where the russians have about 900 K troops against 600 K for axis.
It seems to me impossible to reach such situation in this game and you have played well.

How many troops will you receive in next 2 months?

[Keunert]

I get about 5'500 men replacements every round and maybe another 3'000 in reinforcements. Two months are 30 turns, that will make for roughly 250'000 men. If, and that is a big 'if' the trend continues of those 250'000, 80'000 will be lost. so i could be at 610'000 men. but that is a very, very optimistic speculation.

Even if i don't reach the Uranus level i can see a slow shift of initiative. But that depends on the effect of the impending losses of soviet oilfields. If this immobilizes me completely i will lose the game fast. And i am not sure if i will be able to safe some of the oilfields. it looks like Olivier is concentrating his effort there. and i will put all reinforcements there too.

[rominet]

ORIGINAL: Keunert

I get about 5'500 men replacements every round and maybe another 3'000 in reinforcements. Two months are 30 turns, that will make for roughly 250'000 men. If, and that is a big 'if' the trend continues of those 250'000, 80'000 will be lost. so i could be at 610'000 men. but that is a very, very optimistic speculation.

Even if i don't reach the Uranus level i can see a slow shift of initiative. But that depends on the effect of the impending losses of soviet oilfields. If this immobilizes me completely i will lose the game fast. And i am not sure if i will be able to safe some of the oilfields. it looks like Olivier is concentrating his effort there. and i will put all reinforcements there too.

Thanks.
This is for me the confirmation that there is a real trouble for russian replacements.
IMO, Russia should receive much more replacement, especially from september, where, from the Stavka point of wiew, it was clear that German offensive was really targetting south of Russia and that it was not a diversion of an offensive against Moscow.
An other point is the use of 11th German Army. It should have been removed from the map after the capture of Sevastopol.
This scenario needs to be more balanced.

[Keunert]

I still think this battle isn't over just yet. If i can avoid many more huge pockets and defend in the caucasian mountains, i think i will be on the initiative next spring.
but you also have to consider that both of us play this scenario for the first time at this stage. a better soviet player may had avoided to lose four entire armies and would be
in a much stronger position right now.

Olivier seems to play this game really well.