Test Game AAR using Hot Seat

[kennonlightfoot]

I am going to try something different. This will be a hot seat game where obviously I will play both sides but I am going to try something different. I am going to use it to test different strategies and tactics as much as I can. Obviously I can't test long range ones but I intend to keep game saves at the beginning of every player turn so I can easily roll back things that prove to be failures. I don't want to spend running an hopeless AAR situation. I am also going to keep saves of each major step in the turn so I can test individual tactics and roll them back. The final AAR path should be the best for both sides.

The other thing I would like to do if I get enough feed back is play this more in a "Dungeon Master" role that as a hot seat player (especially since I don't do well trying to play both sides, to easy to make your assumptions reality). If I get some good tactical/strategic suggestions I will switch the game path to using them.

Hopefully, this will great an AAR that follows the best balanced results (although not necessarily a balanced game, it should end up highlighting where the game is out of balance).

Also, I would like to see discussion of the tactics used with the view of identifying its weaknesses and how to do it better.

My only "house rule" will be that the loops don't exist since my understanding is they won't in the next update so I want to take a look at what effect this has.

Also, there is a bug that will affect tactics. In update 02 it still cost 60 Landing Ships to invade with an Army unit. This creates a number of problems that changes tactics to compensate for not being able to land a large unit.

An example of what I mean by backing up after trying different tactics to test them will be how I handled the invasion of the Philippines which I will discuss in a separate post.


The War

Oil is the first major problem for the Japanese. Initially, they have production of 3, upkeep of 43 and inventory of 160. This means they have to have oil within three turns or they lose. This is why any game modification that might cause the Japanese to fail to take DEI will also be a game killer. It can happen. In this last update the strength of the DEI units (I believe) was increased. Because they can't land an army (I don't even think they have one near enough) if the defense of Bataria holds up and they get heavy rain they can't shutdown the Japanese air and sea power.

Of course the war starts with Pearl Harbor.

My results for that are three sunk battleships and two bottomed. The Japanese also withdraw their two subs so they can get them into action elsewhere as soon as possible.

[ncc1701e]

Thanks, I am following.

[kennonlightfoot]

Japanese Advancement settings.

It is hard to predict what the best settings are since it takes at least a year to see the first effects and these are more for the long term game. Predicting what you will need in 43/44.

My choices are:

Assault with full 7 investment. The Japanese will need this to keep the Chinese in check and maybe even drive them back a bit in 43.

Escort Fighters but only 3 inv. This is a hard call since I haven't seen enough of what happens in 43/44. The Japanese start with both Escorts and Interceptors so you are going to have to take some hit eventually when you switch them. The question is do you need long range or short range. And, are you going to have enough oil later to fly them.

Naval Air Training - I put 5 because I couldn't afford more. I think this one is very important for keeping the US in check later but in this first year Warships and Carriers are the big needs.

Anti-Submarine Warfare - I put 4 because they aren't needed during the first year because the US sub fleet is weak. I haven't found Escorts all that effective so this one is more for Air units but this means its competing for Air units with Naval Air.

Large Warships - I put only 4 because I just didn't have enough points for more and I don't see them lasting past one upgrade before the US sinks them all. This again isn't based on experience, just guessing.

Warships - I put at max because they will be carrying the load of both protecting the carriers, blockading ports and supporting major invasions.

Carrier Operations - Again at max because they are Japan's main offensive weapon until they are all sunk.

The others I set to zero mostly because Japan doesn't have enough points to invest in things that aren't major contributors to the war. Japan isn't going to make armor and just don't have the resources to try to branch out in Fighter Bombers, Close Support (although this is an iffy call) and Strategic Bombing. While they have subs they aren't going to be all that effective. Surface raiders do far move damage to convoys. Likewise, amphibious Operations are something that will go away before the first year is out.

[kennonlightfoot]

The Philippines

This is an area that is still subject to "Hail Mary" outcomes. The update 02 did increase the size of the garrisons especially the Philippine army units which are now 5's. But the US garrison in Manila is only a "3" defense. Which is where the "Hail Mary" comes in. You can land the nearby Japanese army (already on transports adjacent to Formosa) in the hex NW of Manila. From there they have the ability to immediately attack Manila. The initial odds are 3:2 but that is easily changed.

1. First thing is send a destroyer or coastal and resupply the army unit. Odds now 2:1.
2. You bring over the third Tactical Bomber to Formosa and mad the five air attacks but against the land unit not the ships. Because the first attack does kills use the stronger dive bomber. This usually gets a 2 hit (which is going to be part of the Hail Mary problem, it could get just 1 hit. And did one time out of four tries.) The reset reduce experience so can't be easily measured. But by the end of it you have 4:1 odds.
3. Bring over your CVL's and do some more air strikes. There are two in range to move and make one strike.
4. Bring over at least two "Large" battleships in the two coastal hexes to support the attack. I can't tell if having more than one BB in a adjacent hex helps or not. But these two will bring the odds up to 5:1.

At 5:1 my initial test showed about 80% of the time you will force the defender to retreat on the first round and will have a movement point to enter Manila to force the Philippines to surrender. This will force the naval units to retreat to sea where you can hit them with surface ships usually resulting in sinking the Houston.

But I consider it a Hail Mary because if you fail on that 20% you will have no movement left even if you second attack clears Manila. I tested trying to get one more supporting unit in but because of the jungles no other landing left the unit with enough movement to get to Manila. On the Allied turn they will put the big Philippine army unit in there with support of the other army and you are looking at a long fight. Plus all the naval ships will escape.

But I do think it wouldn't hurt in next update to increase the strength of that US unit or at least turn on no retreat.


Since I didn't want the game to hinge of a luck roll, this is what I did do for this AAR.

The air on Formosa made made five attacks against the fleets. I also brought over two CVL's to the east and made one extra attack against the US fleets. Also, brought over one CVL with the BB south of Manila. Can't remember if that had enough AP to support with an attack. This sank the Houston and bottomed the Skip Jack.

I made landings: two at Aparri and one at Legaspi.
The reason for two on the north is that the Philippine Army is strong enough to retake Aparri if they want to or at least leave units coming in there with little space for deploy too.
I landed one at Legaspi to block the US from retreating that direction and to cut off supply.

I puts two battleships outside Manila with a few support ships (CA and CVL) so Manila would be blockaded. I did the same to Lingayen (CA plus 2 DD).

This means it is going to take a few turns to conquer the Philippines.

[kennonlightfoot]

Production and Force Redistribution

Almost all Production is going toward building Landing Ships (limited by shipyard capacity) and oilers with left over capacity. Reinforcement/Upgrades are set to 0 for these first few turns. Also, I turned off reinf/upgrade to all the units facing Russia and any unit that is less than half strength. These small units make ideal unopposed invasion units. There are a lot of them and they have little effect on using up Landing Ships. They will be used to sweep across the South Pacific taking every island they can, then moving on. This frees up both Landing Ships and higher quality and strength units for the real work. It will take a little while to get all of them our of garrison mode but they have plenty of time. There is little threat to them until the US gets Transports and Landing Ships in March.

If the Allies don't garrison every port in Australia and India these little flea units will be there biting and opening ports for armies to stream into.

I am also repositioning units, particularly armies, so they can follow up these initial invasions. The Philippines will see two, maybe three, armies land and start the drive to Manila. Armies not being used in China will move to the ports for eventual transfer to India front. Those in Japan will probably move south as needed to help take the South Pacific and Australia.

As soon as the Landing Ship production is maxed out I will switch to building infantry divisions to go garrison Japan's ill gotten gains.

Actions in Malaya and Indochina are pretty much typical. The two units (army and division) near Kota Bharu wipe out the two Indian divisions blocking the route to Singapore and move southward. They were more successful than typical since both defenders were eliminated. The air attacks sank both ships, Prince of Wales and Repulse. Not shown but will be moved there will be three surface ships to make sure Singapore is blockaded. It will probably still take the Japanese army two more turns to be in position to take Singapore, depending on weather. But there is no hurry since the defenders will be weaker every turn.

The Japanese units in Thailand move NW toward the Salween River in preparation for crossing and taking Rangoon.

[kennonlightfoot]

Conquering DEI

Taking Batavia (and DEI) is the most critical operation the Japanese have in the first turn. They need to get oil flowing as quickly as possible. And, they are running against a clock of both dwindling oil inventory and bad weather.

The weather being the one I most fear shutting down the conquest. So I do everything I can with what can reach to take Batavia on the one turn I know will always be clear weather.

In the screen shot below I show the general movements required. The blue lines are the invasion moves. The red lines are the combat actions and moves.

I land the 12 NLF on the coast to the NE of Bandar Lampung. I send a DD adjacent to resupply it. I send a BC to support the attack. This gives me 7:1 odds which usually force a retreat which it did and the marines occupy the port. The landing itself cleared the mines but having the port gives you a supply base as well a route for larger units just in case the attack on Batavia fails.

The second set of landing occur around Batavia. The 2nd NLF lands on the SE hex. It will have an extra movement point to take Batavia if the garrison surrenders. Another unit, 2nd Division lands to the NW and then moves to the SW of Batavia to support the attack. And, the reason for the taking Bandar, the 4th Mixed Brigade lands to the south of Batavia. A DD moves next to the Marine unit and resupplies it (I should have held a ship to resupply my other two units). A BC moves down to support the attack giving me 6:1 odds. The result is the garrison surrenders. If it failed the Marine unit probably could win on the second round but it would delay the surrender of the DEI.

[eskuche]

Assuming DEI surrenders turn one, there is no rush to taking Singapore besides a few piddly victory points. Since it is isolated, it can neither disband nor embark, even with transports. The optimal move at the Malaya peninsula is to convert ground with the division, then attack with the army not moving. I take the army either to port or to Burma. It can receive beachhead supply too to recover. It's worth the experience for it to make these attacks, 100%. It does not need to waste time at Singapore. The army HQ can then run back north to convert the two remaining hexes to deny naval vision of Bangkok. The division converts the 20 production this way, too. Keeping one division at the airbase NW of Kota Bharu and converting it to strategic bombing allows it two attacks on Rangoon next turn while still hitting Singapore.

The engineer-containing army should probably run up the coast. This makes sure it isn't wasting OP moving through jungle, AND it gives it the flexibility of launching naval invasion from Moulmein. I rail the imperial guards division, which is slightly trailing, up into the jungle, to force the crossing on turn 2. Thai army should probably be kept together for the army ZOC bonus.

For DEI, a 5-7:1 attack can be gotten by two SNLF landing at the easternmost hex. First one moves SW for one OP point and has one left. The second one makes an unopposed landing to keep all of its OP. The first division moving south of Batavia claims the hex SW of Batavia, thus locking the ZOC. I try to skimp on ships elsewehre and have 8-10 of my strnogest ships doing bombardment support. If this fails, you get another attempt anyway. Bandar Lampung is redundant if Batavia is taken.

[kennonlightfoot]

converting it to strategic bombing

Not sure what you mean by that. You can't convert air units to a different type just a different Advancement.

[kennonlightfoot]

by two SNLF landing at the easternmost hex.

You can't land more than one unit from a particular coastal hex. The second unit would have to land west or one more hex to the east which might not leave it with enough movement to also attack.

[eskuche]

ORIGINAL: kennonlightfoot

converting it to strategic bombing

Not sure what you mean by that. You can't convert air units to a different type just a different Advancement.

Strategic bombing advancements nets you 2 range. Makes a lot of things easier. The maybe 1 hit to naval attack is usually not as impactful at lower levels.

For landing, land SW of Batavia, move to S for one OP, then land second one in the controlled hex so that it doesn't count as invasion for 35% effectiveness loss (still lose the LC obviously).

[kennonlightfoot]

Solomon Islands

Nothing surprising here. The landings are shown by blue arrows and the advance by one division toward Port Mosby in red.

The 1st SNLF that lands next to Rabaul has enough strength, 8:1 attack, to kill the garrison but not enough movement points to capture this turn. Since it will be next turn and it won't be until the 3rd turn that Kido Butai will need it for refueling, this is no problem.

8th Ind Bde lands north of Lae and moves down to take it and advance toward Port Mosby (red).
I hopefully moved enough ships next to Port Mosby to blockade it.

Henderson Field is also captured so I can use it to take islands further to the east.

My subs are moving into the area so I can use them for some blockade duty.

[kennonlightfoot]

China

This is one I am not sure the best tactics/strategy are. Because of weather it is difficult to maintain an offensive and it requires a lot of units to both make a solid front and control the rail system so you aren't constantly out of supply due to partisans. I plan to leave China a strictly secondary front unless it looks like I can starve it out.

There is only one close victory hex, Changsha, so I am going to commit three armies, circled in blue, toward taking it. One is busy taking Hong Kong but the moves back north. The other nearer army drives in one of the Chinese units but can't do much until all three armies get coordinated and good weather.

The two armies circled in green will be moved to ports and sent to reinforce the group driving through Burma.

Once the VP hex is taken I will probably send one army north to create enough threat the Chinese have to maintain their line there. The other army will stay in the south to threaten the VP hexes there. The third army will be moved to one of the ports to be sent elsewhere.

How many units I will need for the rear areas will be determined by what railroads I identify as needing to stay open. Hopefully I will be able to withdraw some of the coastal garrison divisions in small ports.

[kennonlightfoot]

Wrap up of Dec 7 Japanese Turn

I did make a mistake in producing so many Landing Ships at one time. I should have held back at least 10 production points for converting some more low factor garrison units to active status.

Otherwise, I have a beach head on the Philippines.
A threat to the Burma road.
Advancing on Singapore.
Rabaul will soon be in my possesion.
Port Mosby is cut off.
The DEI will surrender.
4 BB's sunk, 2 CA's sunk, one Sub bottomed and will probably be sunk.

My production is currently 192(2).
Oil inventories were reduced from 160 to 125 (26% capacity).
Landing Ships were reduced from 200 to 108.
Transports are still at 180 so no loses there.
Merchant Marine fleet is at 200 with 74 in use.

[kennonlightfoot]

Question for those following this AAR:

Should the US two carrier fleet head immediately toward Australia hoping to prevent some of the blockades?
Or play it safe and go to the West Coast to wait on the other two carriers?

And, should they still stay out of harms way on the West Coast until they are strong enough to meet Kido Butai on equal (or at least more equal) terms?

There is a New Zealand air unit at Fuji that will get trapped if there is nothing to stop the blockades. Australia could really use the unit. But is it worth saving? It can move to Noumea but it will probably get trapped there unless the Japanese run out of ships.

Another question. I noticed it didn't look like Singapore got blockaded. Could that be because part of the blockade fleet were coastals?

[kennonlightfoot]

Dec 7 - US Situation

The DEI of course surrenders but apparently this still leaves Singapore in supply.
However, Manila, Lingayen, and Port Mosby are blockaded.
Most of the damage to ships in Hawaii were concentrated in the ones that sank or bottomed. The only one damaged at 2 level I am sending to SF and disabling repair so it won't use up Production right now.

Forces on the West Coast spread out to cover all the ports. The two bombers move close to LA so when the CV's arrive they will have good air cover.

I haven't got a good feel on how intel and spotting work in this game but the US is usually much better at it. It looks like they at least know where the Japanese are

Here is what the situation looks like in the South Pacific from the US view point:

[kennonlightfoot]

Dec 7 - US Australia

I don't want to allow the Japanese a free pass to my ports so the Australians spread out to cover the all. This also means that they break down into some very weak divisions. It takes all seven divisions plus the HQ to put units into every port. This leaves them weak just about everywhere and no garrison for Canberra. I leave my strongest division in the critical port of Sydney and put the HQ in the adjacent port. The lone CA and air unit there as well. Hopefully that is enough to keep the Japanese from going for the kill rather than landing on northern ports and grinding there way south.

The Australians desperately need more air support so I am going to try to get the New Zealand air unit from Fiji to Australia. Luckily they can just reach a hex in New Zealand so I move them there. Hopefully they have the range to get to Australia from New Zealand. I am sending all of New Zealand's PP to the one unit holding Fiji but that is probably a waste of points and time. I suspect they will be easily blockaded.

The critical choice in this area of the world was whether to hold the southern ports with stronger forces or spread out and garrison the northern ports. How well this works depends on how quickly the Japanese can concentrate the forces necessary to invade.

[kennonlightfoot]

Dec 7 - US India

India has the same problem as Australia. It has to hold all the ports or risk the Japanese having a back door into their rear. While some ports to the south are rathe minor, if easy landings are allowed there it will create a second front that there just aren't enough Indian divisions to cover.

And, of course, Bombay is critical to keeping UK supply coming in. India has the potential of fielding a very large army but most of its initial production will be consumed just getting its divisions up to full strength.

I send all the UK fleet units to Bombay except the CVL. It is going to Australia so it can join up with the US CV fleet later. Like wise, the long air unit is sent to Bombay along with most of the I Corps. I had to split off one division form the I Corps to garrison the unmanned port. The UK HQ moves to help in Burma. The Indian HQ will also move east as soon as it has rail movement.

The lone mobile division in Burma moves to the Salween River to force the Japanese forces to stop there a turn to prepare for attacking. It will have to run next turn. For some reason I have found the Indian units are very prone to shattering rather than retreating so I don't want them in combat to soon.

The other eastern divisions expend PP to become Active. I need them mobile so they don't get overrun.

[kennonlightfoot]

Dec 7 - US China

I usually don't play China aggressively. I put them on defense and let the mountains and weather protect them. I do try to make Changsha take a while for the Japanese to take it but I try to avoid any unit loss in the process. Mostly trying to get the Chinese forces below it to safety before they get cut off.

I also don't think the Chinese have the production points to waste, Advancement to help or the need for air support to justify having the Flying Tigers around. So I disband them.

My main objective in China is to keep all the VP hexes but Changsha. I won't get aggressive on this front unless the Japanese start stripping forces out of the area. I also consider the northern section of the line very weak so I am shifting southern units that direction. The Communist Chinese are very vulnerable to being by-passed and their capital taken if the line is left undermanned.

[kennonlightfoot]

Dec 7 - US Advancements and Final clean up for next turn

The advancements are set are built around the short term needs of the three principles.
None really need the mechanized war ones (Anti-Tank and Heavy Armor).
I also didn't pursue Strategic Bombing since I am not sure how useful it is. Japan will run out of oil long before they run out of production. But this is also based on lack of experience in the end game.
I decided on Interceptors for those (India) who start with them and Escort Fighters for the US who needs longer ranges.
Attack subs are useless for the Allies and only the US can afford them.

UK is also India so I set the following since they are primarily land for India and sea for UK.
Assault 7 the one most needed by India.
Interceptor 4 India has one but questionable if they will be building more.
Close Support 7 India may need this in the future but I will probably draw these off as others advance.
Anti-Sub 7 UK will need this until the Japanese subs are taken out. They have little air power to help.
Warships 7 UK needs this to beef up there remaining navy.

US offensive capacity is mainly through Carriers, Naval Air and Long Range Subs. This is what will defeat the Japanese sea power and allows mediocre units accomplish their tasks.
Assault 6 to get their infantry able to stand up to the Japanese.
Escort Fighters 3 for when they are later needed.
Naval Air because land based air is what will hopefully save the US fleet.
Anti-sub 1 because I don't think by the time I could level it it would still be needed.
Large Warships 3 they need to improve but it will be CV's that decide the outcome.
Warships 5 wish this could be 7 but not enough points. They don't often turn the tide but the US has a lot of these.
Carrier Operations 7 since they are the Queens in this battle.
Amphibious Operations 6 this will be needed in the first year. I am not as sure for later years.
Long Range Subs 6 this is the weapon that I think will bring down Japans oil. They will probably be the main weapon against oil until the carriers are strong enough to enter Japanese convoy lanes.

China does have much in the way of Advancement points so will maximize Assault with leftovers in Interceptors and Close Support.

USSR is in the war for such a short time they don't really matter.
Assault 7, Heavy Armor 7, Interceptors 7 and Close Support 7.


Other loose ends:

Philippine Army is moved into Manila.
US force there moves to the SE to block Japanese from approaching from that side.
Sub, Pike, heads for Australia.
I don't see an escape route for the air unit so it will be set to full support for ground.

And, I still really don't have a strategy for the Allies other than pray for rain.

[kennonlightfoot]

Dec 21 Japanese

Situation

In China heavy rains so little to happen there. But clear in most other areas.
Production: 200(3) 0 Upkeep 201 Stockpile.
Oil: 48 49 Upkeep 124 Stockpiled 25% capacity.
108 Landing Ships, 180 Transports, 2 Air Transports, 0 Oilers, 10 Escorts and 200 Merchant with 133 in use.

I use production points to make all remaining small units in ports active so they will be available next turn for invasions.

Pacific

Kido Butai splits up to different Islands so they will refuel. I am not clear on the rule as to how many ships those 3 level ports in Kwajalein and Wotje can refuel so I play conservative and put 3 CV's in each. 1 BC in Malelap and the rest at sea.

The subs I moved to Kwajalein last turn are refueled so they go to blockaded Fiji with another sub. I also send ships to blockade Noumea.

1st SNLF takes Rabaul so I will have that major base for refueling next turn.
The small BF at Henderson Field takes Espirto Santo.
BF (Base Force) at Wotje takes Tarawa.
The Maloelap BF on ships is sent to Espirto Santo along with the main Fleet with more units for invasions that was north of Rabaul. 61st SNLF occupies Henderson Field from this group.
Yap BF takes Manus.
Palau BF takes Guam.
All these landing take advantage of how small (1-3 factor) these units are. They only use up 6 Landing Ships.

7th SNLF takes Buin.
Garrison at Truk moves to Lae and is replaced by 64th Div.

The Japanese are well on their way to securing every Island in the South Pacific and have almost nothing to worry about since the US has no Landing Ships and the US fleet of two CV's can't allow themselves to be ID'd by attacking something in range of Kido Butai.

The positions now in the S. Pacific