So, why to start an AAR so early?
Because I need time to figure out what to do with all the Japanese stuff (Army, Navy, Air, production, logistic and warfare).
There are lot of infos on this forum and the game is complex enough that for a good understanding about a single topic you have to read several posts and AARs, moreover not all of them have the same quality and you have to learn which are useful or not.
I have started reading AARs to have a broad picture but tons of questions arose and eventually I got stuck by too many informations at once syndrome!
Reset, I switched method, I will learn by playing and in the hard way.
Strategy
At very high level I need to delay the Allied advance as long as possible and running my economy without issues.
How to translate these wishful thinkings in a pratical plan?
Oil and fuel are in shortcomings but I can find plenty of them in Sumatra and Borneo, my main objective will be to take Palembang and to create a safe shipping route to Japan (end date 30/12/41, plus another couple of weeks for tanker TF in place.)
The other important oil bases (Balikpapan, Medan, Miri, etc.) will follow the general advance.
Without further modifications I need 11300 HI points every day with the actual production (but I am going to change something), considering a very bad scenario where in 1944 I cannot transport enough oil anymore and my industry start to be bombarded, the following considerations are necessary:
Fuel: hard to have a sound number because ships usage is included, if I am already in this situation I would use my fleet in counterattack only, merchant and naval yards can be stopped if necessary, maybe vehicles and armaments can be reduced (maybe not), surely the air production must be always up, moreover I should be able to produce something for a while with my oil centers if I made a good job in the previous years (Tokyo will be the best air protected base of Japan).
In the first months the fuel will be go down for the naval operations and low production, but when all the convoys will be set I will try to move my fleet for what will be really important or necessary (I don't want to use the KB every day).
Oil: I will move more oil than fuel to Japan because I want the supply point created in the refinery process.
Moreover I will use another self imposed HR, only tankers for oil/fuel transfer (again my opponent told me to use AK as well when I want to), this create a new challenge, my TK/AO are more important than a BB and I don't have so many to spare (more when I will post about ship production).
Again no increment until the DEI will be secured.
Supply: For what I have read, it will be my main problem in the late game therefore I will take care of my stockpile since day one.
I will try to supply my units with the occupy territories productions if possible (plenty of xAK to use) and only few selected sites will be fortified/expanded.
HI: following the previous comment on supply, no crazy industry expansion, I am trading a short term goal for a long term one (hopefully!), I want to increment vehicles and aircraft productions but someone else has to be stopped or new territories occupied, anyhow I think a small increment in factories will be necessary.
I still don't have figure out exactly the final output but my logic is to increase both supply and HI every turn.
Resources: the only problem will be to haul them to Japan but fortunately I have all the xAK needed for the task.
Warfare: aside the mandatory territories to occupy, the next steps will be influenced by Allied strategy (of course), quality and quantity cannot be matched therefore I need to pick up my battles very carefully, if I can destroy Allied assets and postpone the inevitable advanced without losing my fighting naval force I will be doing good, in all other situations there are good chance that I am wasting resources.
So far we have played two small scenarios (one still on the way) and it wasn't possible to do trick moves, samll map, fixed units, clear objectives. It will be another thing to take in account during the game.
Looking from his side, I would not play a general retreat but I would commit my units to delay the Japanese advances, I think almost everything is expendable for the Allied and even a 1:2 ratio is still pretty good (especially for aircrafts).
Also he knows that I will use my TK/AO ships only, therefore they will be a gold target for his subs.
Long story short, I still don't know where to go in the second phase, a wild guess is the Pacific sector but his strategy and my overall success (or failure) could be change that.
; Julia Child
