OT - The New Coronavirus

[Zovs]

No your math is incorrect. I took the numbers from Washington Post and using a correct percentage calculator, calculated the top areas.

First number is deaths second is known cases and the percentages tell an interesting story. Not trying to sound harsh but per these numbers it’s not as bad as some are saying or the fear of it of spreading false and faulty data. IMHO of course.

Percentages

China
3203 is 3.95% of 81003

Italy
1441 is 6.81% of 21167

Iran
724 is 5.19% of 13938

South Korea
75 is 0.92% of 8162

Spain
289 is 3.71% of 7798

Germany
11 is 0.20% of 5426

France
91 is 2.02% of 4511

United States
62 is 1.91% of 3244

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: warspite1

And you are wrongly ignoring them

No. I am correctly ignoring them - just like all those coins still in the air. We can get a perfectly valid estimate of coin flips just by examining the coins that have already landed and come to rest.

warspite1

Nope. Still no. You are simply playing with numbers with the result that, by your own admission, you simply scare yourself. I'm sure you are getting some (grim) satisfaction from it but I fail to see how or why.

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: Zovs

No your math is incorrect. I took the numbers from Washington Post and using a correct percentage calculator, calculated the top areas.

First number is deaths second is known cases and the percentages tell an interesting story. Not trying to sound harsh but per these numbers it’s not as bad as some are in fear of it of spreading false and faulty data. IMHO of course.

Percentages

China
3203 is 3.95% of 81003

Italy
1441 is 6.81% of 21167

Iran
724 is 5.19% of 13938

South Korea
75 is 0.92% of 8162

Spain
289 is 3.71% of 7798

Germany
11 is 0.20% of 5426

France
91 is 2.02% of 4511

United States
62 is 1.91% of 3244

You are comparing total cases to deaths. That's obviously wrong, since plenty of those total cases haven't resolved whether the sample will be a recovery or a death. I'm saying we should compare recoveries to deaths.

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Nope. Still no. You are simply playing with numbers with the result that, by your own admission, you simply scare yourself. I'm sure you are getting some (grim) satisfaction from it but I fail to see how or why.

I am using raw recovery vs. death figures - no playing with anything whatsoever. And I am not doing this for any grim satisfaction. I really want to be informed about how deadly this thing is.

For certain using unresolved samples to dilute the results is just plain wrong.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: z1812

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: z1812

This thread was informative and interesting before becoming bogged down in a discussion about relative death percentages that really leads nowhere. Sadly authorities will eventually be able fix a proper rate.

In the meantime we should continue in the spirit of the conversation before the percentage debate started. Here is an update focused on Canada and the World.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/coronavi ... -1.5498348

warspite1

The thread remains informative and interesting. The mortality rate is pretty key. I don't see how a few people discussing this - with strongly held views on either side - as an adjunct (depending on your view) to the topic is a cause for you to react like that. Its a discussion forum. If you want to ignore that element of the thread, just ignore it.

I don't find "Yes it is", "No it isn't", very informative.

You are entitled to your point of view as I am entitled to mine. Feel free to ignore my posts if you don't like them.

warspite1

... and if you read the posts that you are critical of then you would know that that Yes or No (or heads or tails in Curtis Lemay's example) is exactly what I am NOT saying. This isn't bloody heads or tails on a coin toss - these are human beings and this is serious. If people want to play the shock jock, number cruncher, then they can - but any helpful, intelligent analysis needs to take into account the detail re the current active cases. Without that the 'mortality rate' is nothing of the sort - its just a number with no real meaning or context - and for many of the reasons that have come out as a result of this debate, they are massively skewed.

[Gray Fox]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCa0JXEwDEk

What the data means. At 1% death rate, if one person dies, then 99 other people were infected on the same day as the deceased. If the number of infected doubles every 5 days and the deceased was infected 20 days ago then you now have approximately 1600 other infected and 15 will die.

[TulliusDetritus]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
I'm saying we should compare recoveries to deaths.

Hospitalised people then? Because you're ignoring the mild cases (80% iirc). In that case I prefer the x:y expression as in 2:1, 3:1.

But that would be the mortality rate (or ratio) of hospitalised people only. WHO and everyone else here is talking about all the infected (an unknown variable, as others have said -myself included- South Korea might be closer to that number).

As a potential victim, I prefer our system. If I test positive, I may be one of these 80%... or not, gulp. And yes, I am scared [:D]

[Red2112]

Some insight on numbers...
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/some-covid-19-patients-test-positive-days-after-recovery

[Pvt_Grunt]

ORIGINAL: Lobster

OMG...the looting has started. [:D] https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-austr ... -my-camera

And the gang wars! https://www.indiatoday.in/trending-news ... 2020-03-13

[Lobster]

“Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.”
― Mark Twain

“Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns- the ones we don't know we don't know.”
― Donald Rumsfeld

“If your experiment needs a statistician, you need a better experiment.”
― Ernest Rutherford

“99 percent of all statistics only tell 49 percent of the story.”
― Ron DeLegge II, Gents with No Cents

“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination”
― Andrew Lang

[RangerJoe]

"Total duration of illness was 10-16 days. The main issue is that without reporting a cough or trouble breathing many of us were refused testing. I got tested through the Seattle Flu Study. As of Monday, March 9, it has been 13 days since my symptoms started and more than 72 hours since my fever subsided. The King County Public Health Department is recommending you stay isolated for 7 days after the start of symptoms or 72 hours after your fever subsides," Schneider added.

US woman who survived coronavirus shares her experience: I caught it at a small house party

https://www.indiatoday.in/trending-news ... 2020-03-13

[Canoerebel]

This reputable website seems to have had a massive hiccup....

[RangerJoe]

I think that wipes out all of the active cases in the world, does it not?

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: Pvt_Grunt

ORIGINAL: Lobster

OMG...the looting has started. [:D] https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-austr ... -my-camera

And the gang wars! https://www.indiatoday.in/trending-news ... 2020-03-13

I did NOT see that coming! [:D]

[Canoerebel]

Yup. [:)]

Man, that would be something!

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I think that wipes out all of the active cases in the world, does it not?

[z1812]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: z1812

ORIGINAL: warspite1


warspite1

The thread remains informative and interesting. The mortality rate is pretty key. I don't see how a few people discussing this - with strongly held views on either side - as an adjunct (depending on your view) to the topic is a cause for you to react like that. Its a discussion forum. If you want to ignore that element of the thread, just ignore it.

I don't find "Yes it is", "No it isn't", very informative.

You are entitled to your point of view as I am entitled to mine. Feel free to ignore my posts if you don't like them.

warspite1

... and if you read the posts that you are critical of then you would know that that Yes or No (or heads or tails in Curtis Lemay's example) is exactly what I am NOT saying. This isn't bloody heads or tails on a coin toss - these are human beings and this is serious. If people want to play the shock jock, number cruncher, then they can - but any helpful, intelligent analysis needs to take into account the detail re the current active cases. Without that the 'mortality rate' is nothing of the sort - its just a number with no real meaning or context - and for many of the reasons that have come out as a result of this debate, they are massively skewed.

Here is an interesting article regarding the above. A quote from the article is below as well as a link to the full article.

"That includes members of Congress. On Wednesday, they asked Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, what was going on. He urged them not to get so fixated on the fatality rate, emphasizing that scientists still have a lot to learn about it."

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... s-changing

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: z1812

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: z1812



I don't find "Yes it is", "No it isn't", very informative.

You are entitled to your point of view as I am entitled to mine. Feel free to ignore my posts if you don't like them.

warspite1

... and if you read the posts that you are critical of then you would know that that Yes or No (or heads or tails in Curtis Lemay's example) is exactly what I am NOT saying. This isn't bloody heads or tails on a coin toss - these are human beings and this is serious. If people want to play the shock jock, number cruncher, then they can - but any helpful, intelligent analysis needs to take into account the detail re the current active cases. Without that the 'mortality rate' is nothing of the sort - its just a number with no real meaning or context - and for many of the reasons that have come out as a result of this debate, they are massively skewed.

Here is an interesting article regarding the above. A quote from the article is below as well as a link to the full article.

"That includes members of Congress. On Wednesday, they asked Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, what was going on. He urged them not to get so fixated on the fatality rate, emphasizing that scientists still have a lot to learn about it."

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... s-changing

warspite1

Thanks for posting. I understand the need for people to want to know as much as possible, to be informed and as knowledgeable as they can be on something like this. Its what we humans do. But we need to be responsible. We don't know where this thing will take us to and where it will end, and so scary, one off, out of context, headline grabbing % without the benefit of all the data is just so damn irresponsible.

[z1812]

warspite1

Thanks for posting. I understand the need for people to want to know as much as possible, to be informed and as knowledgeable as they can be on something like this. Its what we humans do. But we need to be responsible. We don't know where this thing will take us to and where it will end, and so scary, one off, out of context, headline grabbing % without the benefit of all the data is just so damn irresponsible.

Agreed. My great worry is those who are not taking this seriously. I am surprised by some I know who have returned from abroad and are not self isolating, and others who have Flu like symptoms and are also not self isolating.

Here is another article concerning fatality rates.

https://www.realclearscience.com/quick_ ... s_025.html

[Zap]

I would be interested to know the percentage of death among people over sixty, since I'm one of those. That is of death from the corona virus. since its been said this virus mostly claims their lives.

[TulliusDetritus]

ORIGINAL: z1812
My great worry is those who are not taking this seriously.

Now the hurricane is knocking on everyone's door. It cannot and will not be ignored anymore. I'm happy I started following certain sources one month ago. They correctly described the situation (in China, Italy and now [put your country here]). A slow motion train wreck and they were not paying attention.

Now I want to disconnect aka don't get too overexposed to the flow of [bad] news.