T72-T73
1 November 1942
Weather too poor across most of the front. Heavy rain/heavy mud across most of the front, light rain/heavy mud almost everywhere else apart from at Grozny, Forecast for snow/cold next week.
Tried to interdict the port that is probably supplying their defense of Grozny but nowhere near enough commitment.
Expand the gap along the Caspian to ensure a clear split in their supply network and 2 massive assaults clear the Soviet defensive line north and south of Grozny.
After a lot of thought, pull 2 Pzr and 4A back from Tambov. Can't see any realistic way to take it, its clear the Soviets are up to something and I want a powerful reserve.
So really, for good or ill, its all down to Grozny. If I do win there, its just about possible to make some late gains in the region but I don't have much I can spare. Can't weaken 1 PzrA any more, but send the FJ division as a final reinforcement.
Start to expand the main trench line as I can use the LW regiments to free up FZ units. This will run from Smolensk to the Black Sea and protect Kursk, Kharkiv and Stalino.
I maybe being too pessimistic but has a real feel of losing the initiative (even if the Soviets don't have it yet). So some reflections on the VP situation. First, StB opens with a HWM of 674 so I am already 32 over that.
Second, I have basically traded never captured cities for some historical misses (this is purely in terms of points – I may have more defensive gains as a result). So Leningrad+Tula (52) = Stalingrad+Kalinin (52).
In terms of time pts I have gained 91.
For cities that have changed hands I am down 5 as I got +7 for Rzhev and Rostov and have lost 12 (Rzhev and Orel, the Soviets gained nothing for Rostov).
Looking ahead a little, the first batch of historical losses run from T84 (Voronezh and Maikop) to T87 (Kharkiv). On that set of 5, I gained 25 VP so the Soviets need to take them 2 turns early to come out even. I really doubt that Kursk or Kharkiv will fall before time so the first test is Voronezh – I need to hold to T82 (10 Jan 43) to come out ahead, more of course is better.
Base city points are currently 620 so I am 10 down there which doesn't make much difference, the Soviets still need Bucherest and Ploesti to meet it up but can feasibly shed one other historical gain.
So at the moment, I am up vs StB but its a product of time bonuses not cities held. Grozny gives me the historical 630 city points (just in a different configuration).
8 November 1942
After all that recalculation I find that the game hates me.
Weather shifts to snow/snowfall almost everywhere.
So decide to stick to my decision across most of the front, time to concentrate on defending what I have rather than reach for more. Both 2 and 3 Pzr are now mostly into the mid-40s for MP which is a key part to setting up a strategic defense with the aim of defending Tula and Voronezh in the short term.
In the meantime making steady gains at Grozny with the city now encircled.
So hopeful of actually capturing the place. In turn I still think this opens up some final opportunities if I can defeat the wider group of Soviet formations here. They cannot be easily reinforced so lost formations mean their position weakens and I still think Astrakhan is a possibility (certainly the last chance for an auto-win).
In response have been weakening the LW in the centre to bring more tactical bombers to this sector.
Soviet losses become a bit misleading as they are starting to see a lot of disabled return – (over 7,000 in that turn) but even so, that is less than 25,000.
Which starts to feed into this. My reserve are mostly the LW formations before transfer to their final destination – they have already starting to fill in along my defensive fortification lines.
But it seems they are still not really creating a reserve pool.
Not too worried about the low German pool, I've used these quiet turns to ensure that every infantry division is 70% or more of TOE. Also I gain the 'Stalingrad' bonus in early 1943 (and have no intention of risking a Stalingrad).
By my standards, tank pools are good, the Tigers will be claimed as the various 1943 TOEs come into play
And proved very effective in their very first battle
And the overall position. If I can win the battle for Grozny and sustain that operation then, maybe, perhaps, the VP for a win still exist. I need +49 and the Grozny, Makhachkala, Astrakhan cluster offers 74 (my assumption is I cannot divert what would be needed towards Baku given the wider loss of strategic initiative).
Even the first two sets the HWM around 730.
Additional bit
Given the discussion about cutting the N-S rail my opponent sent me these images of supply receipt into the sector (this is for T73)
So basically there is enough shipping on the Caspian to bring in just under 20k of freight. Clearly less than was needed as all the secondardy depots are empty, but sufficient to keep defensive supply levels.