Grunhilde gets antsy - 1941 GC

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loki100
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Re: Grunhilde gets antsy - 1941 GC

Post by loki100 »

Stamb wrote: Fri Jun 17, 2022 1:51 pm ...

changes in exp have nothing to do with a crazy Soviet tank losses
i told that devs should have enough data as such losses were present long before panzer fix
from your AAR
...
So we now have an AAR filled with images of combats from another AAR?

You clearly think I am being unfair when I say there is little point to producing random examples for a complex system and that, horror of horrors, I'm being a bit academic about this.

Well evaluating complex social systems is one thing I do to earn a living (along with, oddly, baking bread - live where I do and two apparently disconnected jobs are not unusual), and yes, in that field (not baking) I get paid as an academic with a PhD and all the rest. And the first key question when dealing with such a situation is to ask 'whats different'. Marx at his best was a rigorous social scientist and his entire research model was to hold elements of a complex system static while allowing the focus to shift - its why Capital starts with an apparently tedious discussion of what is a commodity.

And all the egs from 1943/4 that you cite fail that test. If there was one brief period when the Germans got ahead of the Soviets in technological terms its 43/44, up to then the T34 was far better than the Pzr III, after that the T34/85 and IS2 at the worst matched the Pzv IV/Tiger and were probably better. Add on improved doctrine and Soviet levels of production and the tank war is only going one way (which in game it does) - but at that transitional phase a Soviet player just needs to take the losses. Or - basically - if I saw a random selection of battles from that period and didn't see heavy Soviet losses - that is what would worry me.

So WAD is a reasonable position till someone comes up with strong evidence - I think German tank losses are too low (but then I never agreed with all the claims to the contrary), I am, frankly, clueless as to what that means for the entire game - and to restate, the game is designed to be played from June 41 to Dec 44 (the other end pts being there to resolve a mismatch). I think looking at the other games that have gone to late 42/into 43 then this is pretty standard stuff - the exception was actually my last game with so limited gains.

I think the VVS is really misrepresented in this period and into 43.
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Re: Grunhilde gets antsy - 1941 GC

Post by Stamb »

loki100 wrote: Fri Jun 17, 2022 1:28 pm ...
So to go back to your view the Soviets have excess tank losses. As you say, its been said so yes, more than happy to discuss game issues here but there are limits. The forum is full of threads announcing this or that is fundamentally wrong - some of them may well be right, or lead to useful changes but for various reasons I've no great desire to engage with them.
...
i understood it as you are open to a discussion
now i understand that i was wrong,
i will delete my previous post
so you can have clean AAR

good to see that everything is WAD
Слава Україні!
Glory to Ukraine!
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T68 - a tale of lost VPs

Post by loki100 »

T68 – 4 October 1942

Oddly the weather cleared up to mostly clear in the centre and south and light rain in the north.

But that is another VP gone (3 over the last 2 turns)

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At least a number of freshly raised formations are now in the West TB so shouldn't lose much for a while.

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Equally a load of LW divisions come into the reserve. I find these, broken down, incredibly useful for maintaining rear area defensive lines meaning I can move the FZ to a new location and build something more. In the end I then use them to ensure I retain Bucherest and Ploesti even when Rumania surrenders but can also spare a couple for other TB.

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The battle of attrition at Tambov carries on, with German gains at a high cost.

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German formations reach the southern edge of the city across a 20 mile front, only to face a new line of fortifications.

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To the south, elements of 6A probing the Soviet lines near Mordovo were stopped by unexpectedly heavy resistance. And came back with reports of new formations clearly arrving on a previously quiet sector.

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While the attempt at Grozny seems to have stalled. Several holds stopped any attempt at enveloping their deep defensive line around the city.

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While the Soviets have committed substantial forces to the city itself. In response the mountain divisions are pulled out of the Carpathians leaving that sector to Italian and Rumanian formations. And Heinrici's 43 Corps spends another week preparing. While I'd like to cut the rail line north, I'm not sure this will make much difference (they cannot be drawing much supply that way) and it looks like the only way to take the city is a direct assault.

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Losses reflect the nature of the current fighting.

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Even in the air the VVS managed to inflict heavy losses while not losing too many of its own planes.

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My current VP is under the HWM (those 3 lost off map points). Doesn't change the big picture, IF, I take Grozny, Tambov and Ryazan before the end of the year I will be over 750 (they are worth +48) – assuming no more off map shifts.

The realistic question is, of course, just how feasible that it is.

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My assumption is that pockets are no longer feasible, so the best I can do is to gain a decent attacking position and its down to attrition.

As in previous posts, I suspect the Soviets are planning something more substantial than just localised attacks. Stumbling on a Tank Army HQ near Voronezh was not good news (of course it could be an elaborate deception).

Being realistic, an auto-win is now out of reach, putting the HWM around 740 remains feasible. I'm under no particular time pressure at either Tambov or Grozny, except a strong suspicion they are getting stronger.

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That hints at a 7m army and nearly 10,000 tanks once whatever they are training up is ready. At that stage, the best I can achieve is the start of a defensive stalemate.
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Re: Grunhilde gets antsy - 1941 GC

Post by DesertedFox »

Well, this AAR gets more interesting with every post. There are also another couple of interesting AAR matchups as well.

A question for Loki.

Given you have captured Leningrad and made pretty impressive gains as well in the south, even though you may miss out on an auto victory, to me, it seems you are in the "box seat" for a 44 or 45 victory.

Yes, there is a lot of time to go but the Russians have one hell of a task ahead of them. Looking forward to this contest.

Thoughts on this game moving forward Loki?
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Re: Grunhilde gets antsy - 1941 GC

Post by loki100 »

DesertedFox wrote: Sun Jun 19, 2022 11:42 am Well, this AAR gets more interesting with every post. There are also another couple of interesting AAR matchups as well.

A question for Loki.

Given you have captured Leningrad and made pretty impressive gains as well in the south, even though you may miss out on an auto victory, to me, it seems you are in the "box seat" for a 44 or 45 victory.

Yes, there is a lot of time to go but the Russians have one hell of a task ahead of them. Looking forward to this contest.

Thoughts on this game moving forward Loki?
good questions and I'll do my best - at the risk of a few spoilers (I've got T78 and its ... um horrible)

First its hard to find a read across. I think Gunulf's game is perhaps instructive in that I've done a bit worse than he did at this stage but not badly. Now he held the initiative into 1943 (not just the technical VP definition but in terms of strategic agency) I'm (spoiler) pretty sure I'm going to lose strategic agency by the winter of 1942 (though I may well hold the technical VP definition for longer).

So going back to my first post re VP targets, I've managed to meet the base city score (in fact I'll get over it - just) so the Soviets need to at least match their historical geographical gains for the end of 1944 and do so in a way that at least matches my time bonuses. There is the problem for him that my ahistorical gains will not yield any time pts for him (but then he holds 2 of my historical gains so that sort of balances).

He's got to do that from relatively far east and at speed - that may bring in a logistics issue often missing in Soviet HtH games as he needs to push his depots west along just repaired train lines. It may not - my last Soviet game vs the AI had this dynamic but it was also played under patches where there were problems with truck allocation as units came out of the reserve (so in effect what I think should happen maybe very different to what actually will happen).

What I think is important is that I have essentially traded Leningrad for Stalingrad - or in other words something relatively easy to defend compared to something at the outer limit of my ability to project power - and I reckon that is a very hard to quantify advantage (in other words every other axis player who has taken Leningrad seems to pick up an auto win - or a Soviet resignation). At a very optimistic reading, it even stops Finland from surrendering if I hold it. Realistically, he'll retake before mid-44 but it may force a diversion of effort.

This was done for a later post but is relevant here, it compares the VP chart for this game against that for the opening of StB (where by definition everything exchanged at +3 time bonus):

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Other unknown but possible issues. So far I've really gained from the rework so that low exp armour tends not to fire, that is going to evaporate as Soviet NM goes up and I suspect his tank corps start to gain Gds status - at a guess they have a lot of wins as he's rarely used them and not won. Also he is probably one of the best offensive players I've played (in AGEOD in particular) and the evidence of his opening serious offensive is he doesn't care about running up losses for the potential gains. On the other hand, the last game was mostly played with the issue that urban hexes were a death trap to defend - and they are the VP locations, its now more feasible to cling to them for a turn or so longer - again may have a significant impact on the time bonuses

So, to avoid answering - I'm not sure. If I can basically lock things down and control the speed/place of my retreat, then I can't see the HWM being met. If I'm off balance then feasibly yes - everything that worked for me in the opening phase is now going to work against me.
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T69 - waiting for the rains

Post by loki100 »

T69 – 11 October 1942

Sigh, while I can control my TB (and they are now mostly ok), its always a risk that the Soviets can allocate far more to secondary theatres.

In the bigger scheme these -1 are not that important but at the moment, my practical goal is as high a HWM as I can and these chip off that (and put an auto-win further out of reach). Crudely I need, if I can, to take Grozny and Tambov soon so as to maximise the HWM benefit. I have no other time constraint – other than it being clear the Soviets are becoming much more robust on the defensive.

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Have just had a batch of LW field divisions. Not incredibly good for combat so I am going to gamble on sending 3 off to other TB (remember I can't recall them): Finland, Balkans, West. Trying to do this to avoid any risk of losing VP for being under the target and maybe pick up a few bonus points.

That gives me 7 on map. I think their main use is to hold rear area forfication zones broken down as regiments, that in turn frees up 18-20 FZ to commence a different defensive belt (yep I'm a pessimist). As 1943 progresses, they can set up in Rumania so I don't lose Bucherest or Ploesti on surrender and the Soviets inherit a wrecked rail system in the west.

I've also just had 27 Panzer allocated but it lacks medium tanks so it can sit in the reserve and refit for another turn or so.

Weather still quite good (rain/light mud), but it looks like heavy rain almost everywhere but around Grozny next turn.

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So that informed my choices. First I gambled on releasing III Pzr Corps from 1 PzrA and then concentrated on breaking the rail line north. That makes them reliant on Baku and the Caspian sea naval system for supply. In turn 49 Mtn Corps completes its redeployment so I pulled the infantry back to maximise CPP gain.

Not shown but the Italian and Rumanian mountain formations are now pulled back to the north edge of the Caucasus – that should significantly reduce truck demand.

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Equally at Tambov, similarly informative in that I won't be able to attack next turn. But equally I can't shift that lot in a single turn,

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After a lot of thought decided to try for an envelopment, but in truth I think Tambov is now a hex too far.

The southern prong broke through to some depth but the attempt to outflank their defensive lines to the north narrowly failed.

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I think I've reached the stage where the Soviet ability to build up more than matches my ability to generate momentum. Elsewhere AGC joins AGN in adopting an essentially defensive posture.

If so, and if I can stop the loss of off-map VP, Grozny should give me 718 as a HWM. In theory, winning there opens up the chances of Astrakhan or a focus on Stalingrad but I suspect its too late now. For all the damage I've inflicted and that the Soviets still suffer badly if they attack, I think they are ahead in terms of their ability to defend.

But I do think I can probably reach the Caspian and set up a simple defensive line in this sector – so there is a wider reward,

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Losses, a bit distorted by them bringing back disabled (a net 1,300) but far too low to have any strategic impact.

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Usefully, just in time for the autumn mud, I've finally reconstructed my supply net.

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Less cheerful, presume I'll be facing a 7m man Red Army by the start of 1943.

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Re: T69 - waiting for the rains

Post by Beethoven1 »

loki100 wrote: Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:19 amHave just had a batch of LW field divisions. Not incredibly good for combat so I am going to gamble on sending 3 off to other TB (remember I can't recall them): Finland, Balkans, West. Trying to do this to avoid any risk of losing VP for being under the target and maybe pick up a few bonus points.
Would you at all consider disbanding any of them at all, as opposed to sending to TBs? I would presume that they contribute less the theater boxes than other units, due to their lower morale. So if the manpower went into other units, it would count for more (both in combat on the map, and also in theater boxes).

It makes some sense to use other ones (regimented) for holding fort slots, as you mention.

I guess as the game goes on this is something you have to deal with more, with more low quality formations being created.
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Re: Grunhilde gets antsy - 1941 GC

Post by exalted »

Not much to add but just wanted to give a thumbs up for a top notch AAR. AAR's really get a lot more intersting once you get out of 1941 and so few do.

7 million angry soviets sounds like a serious problem.

Looking at the deployments I wonder how much less a cautiou player loose than the contact obsessed AI which rarely allow any gap in the lines.
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Re: T69 - waiting for the rains

Post by loki100 »

Beethoven1 wrote: Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:15 am
loki100 wrote: Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:19 amHave just had a batch of LW field divisions. Not incredibly good for combat so I am going to gamble on sending 3 off to other TB (remember I can't recall them): Finland, Balkans, West. Trying to do this to avoid any risk of losing VP for being under the target and maybe pick up a few bonus points.
Would you at all consider disbanding any of them at all, as opposed to sending to TBs? I would presume that they contribute less the theater boxes than other units, due to their lower morale. So if the manpower went into other units, it would count for more (both in combat on the map, and also in theater boxes).

It makes some sense to use other ones (regimented) for holding fort slots, as you mention.

I guess as the game goes on this is something you have to deal with more, with more low quality formations being created.
At this stage I don't really have a manpower shortage (I keep a track not just on the overall level but also variables like % rifle squads and artillery), so really what I need is hooks to bring that latent manpower into use (and I'll get the 'Stalingrad' manpower in 1943, hopefully with no hint of a Stalingrad losses).

In my AI game, the cumulative effect of the AI at 120 (its tactical nuke routine) was that I had constant routs and by mid-44 was really short of artillery. So I first scrapped almost every SU to push the assets into the divisions and then did indeed start scrapping weaker formations so the assets went to the better ones. But worth bearing in mind that by mid/late 44 the NM applied to the LW formations is not that different to the generic German NM, so by the time that scrapping may be a good idea these LW formations are not worse in morale terms - though they clearly stay worse in TOE terms
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Re: Grunhilde gets antsy - 1941 GC

Post by loki100 »

exalted wrote: Mon Jun 20, 2022 3:59 pm Not much to add but just wanted to give a thumbs up for a top notch AAR. AAR's really get a lot more intersting once you get out of 1941 and so few do.

7 million angry soviets sounds like a serious problem.

Looking at the deployments I wonder how much less a cautiou player loose than the contact obsessed AI which rarely allow any gap in the lines.
Thank you, I find with longer games that its when you start to enter the mid-game that it has taken on a life and logic all of its own. Here the inflection point of the war is probably the Soviet defense of Tambov with Stalingrad remaining an obscure backwater notable as a logistics hub for the Soviet forces in the Don bend.

My opponent has apparently carefully read the AAR of my last game and decided on a 1942 strategy that was flexible enough to accept territorial losses so as minimise losses. In that game, by the end we came to the view that the losses I inflicted in April-November 1942 actually won me the game in the end despite never making any real gains. In this one, what is obv undecided is if the much higher HWM compensates.

He's also shown the advantages of patience, I've just sent back what is T3 of a Soviet strategic offensive and am really off balance. E-Adolf has been sent somewhere nice as the Ost Heer retreats to a more defensible line.
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Re: Grunhilde gets antsy - 1941 GC

Post by loki100 »

Since this relates to the issues in the main forum - just to thank everyone who has read and commented. As ever with any form of writing, comments are as key as the original posts - both to tease out issues, provide re-assurance of not just talking to myself etc.

We are about 9 turns ahead and will try to take the game to Berlin if needed, or at least to a point where its clear who has won. Our approach was predicated on wanting to test out certain opinions, both about winning and losing but also about Soviet capacities in the mid/late game.
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T70-T71

Post by loki100 »

T70-71

Run these turns together as almost all the map was heavy rain in the end producing heavy mud. The only exception was around Grozny where the worst was light rain/mud.

18 October 1942

A Soviet attack on my over-extended units near Tambov convinced me to pull back. I'll review my options when the ground freezes but for the moment want to minimise logistics strain and maximise CPP gain.

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First direct attack on Grozny failed

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But the wider campaign went well. No rail links so they are completely dependent on the Caspian Sea – I'll bring the specialist naval planes to see if I can generate additional friction. The addition of elements of 1 Pzr A makes a lot of difference on the northern flank and even managed to encircle several rifle divisions that were falling back.

25 October 1942

Same weather as last turn and forecast is for the same next week.

So some refit and reorganisation on the bulk of the front but continued the Grozny campaign.

This has now split into two parts, with the detached formations from 1 Pzr pushing north (and reporting to AGA at the moment) while 4 Pzr tries to envelop the city. Clearly there are risks on the flanks but the balance of 1 PzrA forms a useful reserve, if they commit cavalry I can match them with high MP motorised formations.

The destruction of 2 divisions in a pocket was a bonus and I may add a cavalry division next turn.

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Given the lull, brief tour of the rest of the war.

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So mostly meeting the requirements, the Soviet partisan demand has just increased so sent some Rumanian SU to there for now (it recovers via natural reinforcements soon). One LW division still on its way to Finland.

As a reminder, Finland is a 'safe' target as when it surrenders I regain all the allocation for on map deployment.

With some luck, Western Europe may even generate a few VP back
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Re: T69 - waiting for the rains

Post by jasonbroomer »

loki100 wrote: Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:19 am T69 – 11 October 1942

That makes them reliant on Baku and the Caspian sea naval system for supply.
Do you have a feel of how much supply can be shipped across the Caspin? If Saratov falls early, would this doom Stalingrad and the Caucuses?
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Re: T69 - waiting for the rains

Post by loki100 »

jasonbroomer wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 7:26 am
loki100 wrote: Mon Jun 20, 2022 5:19 am T69 – 11 October 1942

That makes them reliant on Baku and the Caspian sea naval system for supply.
Do you have a feel of how much supply can be shipped across the Caspin? If Saratov falls early, would this doom Stalingrad and the Caucuses?
There's a little noted Soviet NSS on the east side of the Caspian - till this game I'd never realised it was even there. I vaguely recall a game in beta testing when this entire region went out of supply after someone managed to cut the rail so I presume its been added to avoid that.

So in essence with that rail cut the freight available is whatever the production from Armenia-Baku (there must be some) and the shipping capacity on the Caspian.

We discussed this and it meant he was permanently short, certainly never had much in stock - and it has some bearing on my final ability to actually take Grozny - but was ok for defensive operations. If I'd been able to push south, he'd have held me as we'd have both been horribly short but I would have been the one trying to attack.
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Re: Grunhilde gets antsy - 1941 GC

Post by nicks1 »

Hi Loki,

All your contributions are greatly appreciated. Big thanks for your time and effort.
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Re: Grunhilde gets antsy - 1941 GC

Post by loki100 »

nicks1 wrote: Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:51 am Hi Loki,

All your contributions are greatly appreciated. Big thanks for your time and effort.
thank you - since i have a batch of these written I'll post them without any wider engagement
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T72-3 -- stuck in the mud

Post by loki100 »

T72-T73

1 November 1942

Weather too poor across most of the front. Heavy rain/heavy mud across most of the front, light rain/heavy mud almost everywhere else apart from at Grozny, Forecast for snow/cold next week.

Tried to interdict the port that is probably supplying their defense of Grozny but nowhere near enough commitment.

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Expand the gap along the Caspian to ensure a clear split in their supply network and 2 massive assaults clear the Soviet defensive line north and south of Grozny.

After a lot of thought, pull 2 Pzr and 4A back from Tambov. Can't see any realistic way to take it, its clear the Soviets are up to something and I want a powerful reserve.

So really, for good or ill, its all down to Grozny. If I do win there, its just about possible to make some late gains in the region but I don't have much I can spare. Can't weaken 1 PzrA any more, but send the FJ division as a final reinforcement.

Start to expand the main trench line as I can use the LW regiments to free up FZ units. This will run from Smolensk to the Black Sea and protect Kursk, Kharkiv and Stalino.

I maybe being too pessimistic but has a real feel of losing the initiative (even if the Soviets don't have it yet). So some reflections on the VP situation. First, StB opens with a HWM of 674 so I am already 32 over that.

Second, I have basically traded never captured cities for some historical misses (this is purely in terms of points – I may have more defensive gains as a result). So Leningrad+Tula (52) = Stalingrad+Kalinin (52).

In terms of time pts I have gained 91.

For cities that have changed hands I am down 5 as I got +7 for Rzhev and Rostov and have lost 12 (Rzhev and Orel, the Soviets gained nothing for Rostov).

Looking ahead a little, the first batch of historical losses run from T84 (Voronezh and Maikop) to T87 (Kharkiv). On that set of 5, I gained 25 VP so the Soviets need to take them 2 turns early to come out even. I really doubt that Kursk or Kharkiv will fall before time so the first test is Voronezh – I need to hold to T82 (10 Jan 43) to come out ahead, more of course is better.

Base city points are currently 620 so I am 10 down there which doesn't make much difference, the Soviets still need Bucherest and Ploesti to meet it up but can feasibly shed one other historical gain.

So at the moment, I am up vs StB but its a product of time bonuses not cities held. Grozny gives me the historical 630 city points (just in a different configuration).

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8 November 1942

After all that recalculation I find that the game hates me.

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Weather shifts to snow/snowfall almost everywhere.

So decide to stick to my decision across most of the front, time to concentrate on defending what I have rather than reach for more. Both 2 and 3 Pzr are now mostly into the mid-40s for MP which is a key part to setting up a strategic defense with the aim of defending Tula and Voronezh in the short term.

In the meantime making steady gains at Grozny with the city now encircled.

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So hopeful of actually capturing the place. In turn I still think this opens up some final opportunities if I can defeat the wider group of Soviet formations here. They cannot be easily reinforced so lost formations mean their position weakens and I still think Astrakhan is a possibility (certainly the last chance for an auto-win).

In response have been weakening the LW in the centre to bring more tactical bombers to this sector.

Soviet losses become a bit misleading as they are starting to see a lot of disabled return – (over 7,000 in that turn) but even so, that is less than 25,000.

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Which starts to feed into this. My reserve are mostly the LW formations before transfer to their final destination – they have already starting to fill in along my defensive fortification lines.

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But it seems they are still not really creating a reserve pool.

Not too worried about the low German pool, I've used these quiet turns to ensure that every infantry division is 70% or more of TOE. Also I gain the 'Stalingrad' bonus in early 1943 (and have no intention of risking a Stalingrad).

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By my standards, tank pools are good, the Tigers will be claimed as the various 1943 TOEs come into play

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And proved very effective in their very first battle

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And the overall position. If I can win the battle for Grozny and sustain that operation then, maybe, perhaps, the VP for a win still exist. I need +49 and the Grozny, Makhachkala, Astrakhan cluster offers 74 (my assumption is I cannot divert what would be needed towards Baku given the wider loss of strategic initiative).

Even the first two sets the HWM around 730.

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Additional bit

Given the discussion about cutting the N-S rail my opponent sent me these images of supply receipt into the sector (this is for T73)

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So basically there is enough shipping on the Caspian to bring in just under 20k of freight. Clearly less than was needed as all the secondardy depots are empty, but sufficient to keep defensive supply levels.
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Re: Grunhilde gets antsy - 1941 GC

Post by tm1 »

No arguments from The Führer about Army Group Centre going on the defensive ? :D


4th Armee digs in.jpg
4th Armee digs in.jpg (319.34 KiB) Viewed 1262 times
4th Armee falls back to Lipetsk and forms a defensive along The Matyra River from the towns of Gryazi to Mordovo.


Your supply situation should be much better in 1942 than the previous year, you don't plan on any kind of winter offensive or is his Army just to big of a risk ?


2nd Pz Armee .jpg
2nd Pz Armee .jpg (242.24 KiB) Viewed 1262 times

2nd Pz Armee redeploys back to The Don River and the towns of Lebedyan and Krasnoe to guard the vital rail supply line running from Tula to Yelets.



So Grozny currently seems to what might be your last roll of the dice in 1942,and lets say for arguments sake you go on a total defensive nature over the winter months.

If you manage to keep your Armys intact wouldn't there still be a opportunity for a 43 offensive, your Panzers should be pretty powerful come the summer months ?


If you have time can please provide your command structure I.E who is commanding OKH , Army Groups and Armee's

I know that's a lot so Army Groups Centre, A and B will be fine please.

regards
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Re: Grunhilde gets antsy - 1941 GC

Post by loki100 »

To the wider questions, I think I'll lose strategic agency by the end of 1942. However, my opponent really likes to concentrate his key assets and set up echelon attacks. And this opens up some scope. First, its not till 1944 can Soviet formations sustain an offensive operation turn after turn, they run out of CPP and low on MP when they press forward (and overload the local supply net). Second, if I'm prepared to take risks - and I certainly can't just defend passively - if he's strong somewhere, he's weak somewhere else. Which opens up the scope for a localised offensive either just to generate a pocket or two or try to regain ground.

But - at the risk of spoilers - I think I'm going to lose too much (3 cities at 10 VP each) that even regaining the HWM is out of reach never mind adding to it.

So by 1943 I think we are clearly into the second half of the game, even if I technically hold the initiative (in narrow VP terms)
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loki100
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T74 - who wants to watch Casablanca when you can have Grozny?

Post by loki100 »

T74 – 15 November 1942

Weather is blizzards north of Tula and cold everywhere else. Ground conditions mostly light snow so no MP penalties.

Well good news as I again have a clear route to a major victory ... I mean who cares about a few Americans visiting the night clubs in Casablanca?

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Of course, winning means different things to different people?

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So for the first time, they are clearly trying a strategic offensive and sticking around for the inevitable counterattacks.

That isn't the end of the bad news, recon suggests another blow is planned directly at Voronezh.

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I doubt they had any illusions that would sweep away AGC but I suspect the intention is to force the commitment of my reserves and then rely more on their infantry to make further gains.

Grozny was encircled again, the rout was very unexpected. Makes me wonder if cutting the N-S rail and my naval interdiction is paying off far more than I expected.

Alsp 27Pzr and 7 FJ divisions have just arrived – a significant addition to both combat power and mobility.

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On the main sector, managed to drive in all the Soviet armoured breakouts, some routs (a few direct in combat one due to cutting the retreat route) should add to them needing some time to refit.

Pulled back NE of Tula so that is now the front line and NE of Lipetsk. The problem is that everyone of my Pzr/mot divisions apart from 24 Pzr Corps has been in action. I've done no damage to their infantry formations so I presume the offensive will continue.

The reward/threat is if I lose Tula before I take Grozny then I make no improvement on the HWM, so on that sector its a case of having to try to fight the Soviets to a standstill. Similarly around Voronezh, I need to hold off whatever they are planning outside the city till T82 (at least, but that gives me +1 on time point exchange).

Essentially, at the moment I know I can deal with the Soviet armoured formations, I am less sure I can stop their Rifle Corps, especially if their target is only a few hexes behind the front line.

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Losses – well there are a lot of destroyed Soviet tanks

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As requested a bit more detail on my OOB.

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AGN and its limited air support

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Some corps report to the AG level to keep army commands under CC.

AGC, I'm using the FliegerKorps command to allocate the combat air assets

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AGB, shares the LDO command so again has its combat air assets in a FleigerKorps to ease allocation.

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AGA, the corps came from 1 PzrA but are operating near to the AG command so have them reporting direct. Most of the combat air is supporting the Grozny battles.

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