Through a glass, darkly (vs Soviet AI 110/120)

[loki100]

T111 – 1 August 1943

July was a bit of a curate's egg. In places I'm holding relatively easily, around Leningrad its a case of replacing front line formations, but in S Russia and the Ukraine my entire position starts to fray. Good thing is so far I've controlled the pace of any retreat but have only managed one very small pocket. Last turn I pulled back a bit more to relieve the pressure and hoped to have some opportunities.

One benefit of excellent supply is I can go from no fortifications to level 3 in 3 turns, so if I can retain a new line, I can quickly turn it into something formidable.

So, this is a bit of a slaughter house. The Soviets are losing around 30,000 men a turn here for no real gains but its costing me 6-8,000 to hold them. I also need a lot of formations to keep a refit cycle going. My logic is that basically there is no better line to fight on than this and there are some very vulnerable VP locations just behind the front.

But – as below – at some stage soon, I'm not going to be able to replace those losses.



So far this sector has rarely come under pressure, so, much to my surprise I still hold Rzhev.



Last turn I did a large retreat here, puts Orel close to the front line but still fairly safe. One problem here is I am going to lose 2 Pzr A next turn. That is going to cause problems but I think I can just about have the CP to absorb its formations.



Losing ground to the north and 1 Pzr A is pretty much committed to holding the line – which removes my faint hopes of encircling errant Soviet units. Last turn I lost the Mius line. Stalino is safe as far as a direct assault goes but I suspect I'll see both flanks pushed back over August.

I suspect this will be the first time bonus for the Soviets,



VP chart. Not much has changed, I've picked up a net +18 for TB allocations. Orel I now think I can remove the time bonus, holding Stalino to T119 may be more of a challenge.

Just to repeat I had no bonus for Orel, Smolensk or Stalino so this all about avoiding a net deficit rather than improving my relative position.



Losses, my permanent losses in July were 100,000 men and 470 tanks. Soviets lost 300,000 men and 4,000 tanks.

Air war still in my favour but I'm having to rely on untrained pilots so a lot more formations being sent back to the reserve to train up.



So in terms of overall OOB, I'm down 70,000 (mostly due to withdrawals) and they have lost a net 300,000. I think this explains why such a large segment of the front is quiet. Only bad bit is their reserve is up 30,000 men so something fresh is being trained up.



My ability to absorb losses is now very limited, once I can no longer rotate and refit I suspect sectors like Leningrad will collapse.



Theatre boxes – which are yielding a steady flow of VP. I presume Italy will become a problem when they surrender but for the moment have turned that problem around.

[loki100]

T116 – 5 September 1943

Wider war is going badly. Italy is out and Tito is being annoying. E-Adolf is sending pictures of boats to 'Admiral' Horthy and meaningfully friendly letters to Rumania (this despite both armies taking heavy losses as they fill in the gaps in my lines).

Side note – last 3 turns have been played with the new beta patch. That includes the Assault Front rules that Joel described on the main forum (and some other combat related changes).



On map, I've roughly achieved a stalemate. If this persists, I'll bump the AI up to 120 but I want to see how the late 43 NM shifts work out first.

The broader Leningrad sector is marked by massive Soviet assaults and losses. I have to keep a substantial reserve to allow me to rotate and refit or my units will just collapse. Every now and then the Soviets take a hex and expand their position but so far I'm clinging to the Leningrad-Novgorod sector.



16A is holding the rough ground between 18A/4 PzrA and 9A. Here I gave up ground east of Kaluga, the next retreat will abandon Rzhev.

As mentioned good supply means I can go from nil fort to level 3 in 3 weeks. So if I pull back and stabilise then I can hold a new line with some ease till the pressure mounts. The loss of the 2 PzrA HQ means no mobile reserve here (can't spread out 3 PzrA too much if I want to keep the command bonuses).



3 PzrA has just created and destroyed a decent pocket NE of Orel. Mostly I can keep the Pzr/PzrGr formations out of the line which makes them potentially lethal if I can generate an encirclement.



1 PzrA is more committed just to holding the front lines, also I have less scope to give the AI gains here. As it is, 17A was badly hit last week and the Soviets are now NW of Stalino. To the south 8A (was ADK, was 11A) is well dug in down to Mariupol and the Soviets have made no effort to break that line.



Losses. My permanent losses across August were around 140k and 250 tanks. I've managed to avoid regular use of the Pzrs and they are nice and plump as a result. Soviet permanent losses were 500k and almost 6,000 tanks.



Which shows in the OOB. I'm down 60,000 men (mainly withdrawals), the Soviets are down 200k. Having their army under control (and they are not helping themselves losing around 30,000 men a turn around Leningrad) starts to pay off as most of the front sits quiet. They've also lost a net 2,500 tanks.



My manpower reserve has stabilised. As the pressure eases,its easier to refit, so my typical division strengthens.



VP, for the moment the only thing that matters is the time bonus. Orel is now neutral, Stalino will be in 3 turns, so worth trying to stabilise the lines there. Next task is to run out time for the cities along the Dnepr.

[loki100]

T126 – 14 November 1943

Not that much happened over the late summer or autumn (in fact October was very rainy). I put the AI on 120 after the last report but I think its doomed but this is worth keeping as a test game (its already chucked up some obscure issues).

I'm using a test beta that has the new Assault Front rules (& some more experimental ideas) in it.

So just about keeping my army HQ's under CP. 4, 6 and 8 are just over the limit but better to pay the +1 or 2 on the leadership test divisor than have corps out of sequence.



In the wider world, my relative strength vs the Soviets has allowed a massive refit of the formations in the TB. Add on some low level transfers and I meet the ground demands for all the others. Italy seems to fall on order, no significant event shifts for Western Europe and I'm bringing in a few VP every now and then.



Since its important, lets talk VP. The AI needs +289 to match off the HWM for 31 December 1944.

The base value of liberating the 1941 Soviet Union is 180 (Minsk-Rzhev in that table). Practically it is now not going to gain any 1943 time bonus but could still collect the 1944 set. Lets take the worst case, it gets 36. So that is 216 – I don't think it can get all this but lets see how things develop.

At some stage it gets Helsinki +36 – unless I deny it any more gains around Novgorod-Kingisepp (losing those is the trigger for the Finland surrendering event chain).

So 252.

Rumania is a base +60, so 312, +12 for a time bonus, 324 (ie a total of 776).

If anything, I think I am more likely to pick up +1s for TB than the AI.

In effect, it can shed another 35 time points and still meet the HWM. Given where the front still is for AGC, I'm pretty sure I can hold Minsk past the critical date. If I hold the Dnepr in the Ukraine over the winter, that should deny time gains for Odessa, Lvov and Rumania (so it reaches say 746).

Thats enough, but very tight.

At 110, this was clearly not going to happen, at 120 its just about feasible.



In its favour, it has the 1944 NM shifts and the very good 1944 TOEs. Its also recovered around 300,000 men since early September. But I've fairly dramatically won the tank exchange. Its mobile assets are weak, almost every one of my Pzr/PzrGr formations is full of nice late war tank models.

On the other hand, I will lose a fair few to Western Europe over the next 40 or so turns.

To make it worse, they are almost all at 50 MP every turn, sometimes mid/low 40s.

Also, as mentioned before, I can pull back and have level 3 forts in place before my new line comes under serious pressure. This is an artifact of my supply position.



It has no real manpower reserve. This will improve as it takes back cities but its paying a high price for its gains. I've reached the point where I have no German infantry divsions <10,000 men and can refit those that do get chewed up.

At the moment, I am holding back the bulk of my specialist infantry battalions in OKH, I'll allocate these out when I really want to hold a given hex.



On map, the main Soviet effort seems to be on the Kharkov-Stalino sector. Not least it has much stronger stacks there than previously.



It is also trying on the Kursk-Orel sector. The practical problem here is that 3 PzrA is sat around washing its tanks and wondering if they should get scratched before they are obsolete. 1 PzrA is a bit more tied into the front lines, so less dangerous in that regard.



It has currently lost interest in pushing beyond Leningrad and probes along the long front held by 16A, 9A and 2A. But unless something goes very wrong, I can chose when and how to retire here.

Leningrad itself fell on one of those odd 1-10 defensive wins where you have so many elements destroyed or disrupted your units rout (if I recall I had 3,500 casualties spread over 2 divisions, add on disruptions and I only had 30 or so rifle squads).



Losses. My permanent losses over 9 weeks are 150k men and 350 tanks. The Soviets have lost around 400k men and 5,700 tanks.



Final comment, this is a mild winter. I've been through this as the Axis in the Stal-Berlin scenario and the Soviets in a vs AI game. The main effect is few blizzards outside the Leningrad region.

This has 2 effects, major rivers tend not to freeze fuly and you get very little heavy snowfall or deep snow. The latter makes the air war relentless and feasibly allows a very high tempo of ground operations. The former makes a well defended major river a real challenge to cross.

[loki100]

T134 – 9 January 1944

At the end of 1943 I was reasonably convinced this would be a controlled drift to winning in December 1944. Last 2 turns have changed my mind. First my position between Kursk and Kharkov and then north of Stalino was badly enough disrupted that I pulled back to Orel/Kursk and abandoned Stalino.

This turn, my position at Leningrad was dismantled – I'd pulled off my reserves to deal with an earlier crisis at Staraya Russa.

In VP terms, this makes no difference to the estimates in the last post, the +21 for the AI are from Stalino and Rzhev (and I lost a net VP in the TB tests). The challenge for me, is still to deny 36 bonus points.

I've sent a lot of the LW divisions to Rumania, basically they are set up to keep a key rail link in my hands and, more importantly, mean that Bucharest and Ploesti are not just lost when Rumania changes sides. More immediately, the need is to run out time for Odessa and Sevastopol in the south and Talinin and Pskov in the north. Add all those together and that is my safety net.

Just as a reminder, as it doesn't show on my VP chart, the critical test turn is T185.



So lets start with the map action. Its not just the AI managed to win all those battles, I lost well over 1,000 men in each defeat and had German formations flip to depleted (mainly loss of their combat elements). So redeeming it is not easy.

Not helped as you can see in that the combat power of 4 PzrA is to the south.

I have 2 slightly differing problems here. If I lose both Kingisepp and Novgorod, the Finland events start. Now in the end this doesn't matter – I lose the 36 VP regardless for Helsinki. But clearly I don't want this too early on if I can help it. Bigger issue is holding Talinin and Pskov past their time dates.

Geographically the lakes give me a shortened line, but this is in the one sector that will see enough blizzards for the major rivers to properly freeze.

But once they are bypassed, I lack any shorter line till I abandon all the Baltic region.



Just pulled back here. One big problem is the loss of the 2 PzrA HQ means I can't easily spread out my armour. So I've shuffled 3 Pzr A south to be closer to 1 Pzr A. My hope is this redeployment opens up the potential to cut off Soviet spearheads – but that is becoming much harder to manage.



1 PzrA is clinging to Kharkov – Belgorod. Partly last turn I had units in partial encirclement and it took time to free them up.

More its a good defensive line, the major rivers are frozen to #6, near the worst in terms of movement and combat penalties.



This sector worries me. I have a good fall back line anchored on Dnepropetrovsk-Zaporozhye but the front starts to lengthen so 8A is going to be stretched (not helped as one corps is planned to go to the Crimea to defend Sevastopol.



Losses, that reflects the sequence of Soviet victories. Overall my permanent losses since mid November are 190,000 men and 800 tanks. The Soviets have lost 410,000 men and 6,400 tanks.

(as an aside, all this is being played with a test beta that changes some of the ways in which tank-tank battles play out).



OOB. I'm down 110,000 German (mostly transfers) but the Pzrs remain a fearsome threat – challenge is to find situations where it is worth expending this resource.

Soviets up 200,000 men but their tank pool shrinks by another 1,400.



This remains my safety net. I can take a lot of losses – the challenge is to pull formations off the line to refit. The AI is functioning hand to mouth, but regaining the big cities around Stalino will help a bit.



Wider war, seems like events are occuring pretty much to time – this has happened about 2 weeks early.



A sort of balance sheet.

In my favour:

a) Lots of tanks, if I can find the chance this could be decisive
b) Manpower reserve – so I can absorb losses for a while
c) Lack of Soviet tanks – less of a gain as the AI tends to be more linear than a player would
d) Soviet manpower pool, in previous game cycles I've basically brought the AI to a halt as its units weaken, it has a lot of weak units already

My problems:

a) The NM shifts will start to bite
b) The infantry TOEs become more and more defensive while the Soviets gain the 1944 TOEs
c) It becomes harder to release formations to refit – not helped as the front lengthens

[Beethoven1]

ORIGINAL: loki100

Losses, that reflects the sequence of Soviet victories. Overall my permanent losses since mid November are 190,000 men and 800 tanks. The Soviets have lost 410,000 men and 6,400 tanks.

(as an aside, all this is being played with a test beta that changes some of the ways in which tank-tank battles play out).

Does it lower the AFV losses, or do something else? It seems like the AFV losses in the public version are a bit on the high end to me, though IDK exactly what historical losses really were.

[carlkay58]

You just increased the Soviet AI to 120 this turn did you not? That would explain the 'tac nuke' effect and increased losses you are seeing.

[Hardradi]

Crazy casualty numbers across the board for the Soviets. As a result of the losses, looking at the OOB it looks like it has almost as many aircraft and tanks in the other theatres as on MAP.

Would I be correct in saying that you appear to be tweaking the games values (morale, etc) to keep it in the fight?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Beethoven1

ORIGINAL: loki100

Losses, that reflects the sequence of Soviet victories. Overall my permanent losses since mid November are 190,000 men and 800 tanks. The Soviets have lost 410,000 men and 6,400 tanks.

(as an aside, all this is being played with a test beta that changes some of the ways in which tank-tank battles play out).

Does it lower the AFV losses, or do something else? It seems like the AFV losses in the public version are a bit on the high end to me, though IDK exactly what historical losses really were.

its doing quite a bit, can't say too much but Joel has given an indication on the main forum. One change is to improve long range interaction, others are to emphasise the relationship of experience/chance of hitting. This game is a useful test as I'm now running around with the late war Axis tanks where this should show up. The problem is the AI has basically wrecked its armoured forces, but it throws up a few battles that allow tweaking etc.

ORIGINAL: carlkay58

You just increased the Soviet AI to 120 this turn did you not? That would explain the 'tac nuke' effect and increased losses you are seeing.

I actually put the AI on 120 after the November turn reported above. For a while I don't think that made any real difference but I was also rarely losing. Since the turn to 1944, I'm getting bad defeats escalate to routs fairly often.

I was going to report it as an issue but vaguely remember that the effect is limited to specific time periods.

As with the equivalent German AI bonus in 1941-2, the effect is to shake up the game - which is much better.

ORIGINAL: Hardradi

Crazy casualty numbers across the board for the Soviets. As a result of the losses, looking at the OOB it looks like it has almost as many aircraft and tanks in the other theatres as on MAP.

Would I be correct in saying that you appear to be tweaking the games values (morale, etc) to keep it in the fight?

Yes, while the AI doesn't do the endless low odds attacks it did in WiTE1 it seems to get obsessed with locations. There was a 10 turn battle for Leningrad where it must have lost 12-15,000 men a week assaulting the city. Also even now a failed attack can sometimes escalate to show 2-4000 losses.

Add on, I am still able to cut out and pocket units, sometimes a couple. So its running at around 70-100k losses a week.

If I'd stuck to 110, it would have been an exercise in doing army management in the CR, juggle front lines, maybe pull back a bit etc all the way to a clear December 44 win.

On 120 morale, it is protected from poor command chain set up (still gets the combat malus for mixing formations but it passes leadership rolls) and the effect that Carlkay calls 'tactical nukes'. The Axis AI gets this in 1941 and 1942 (apart from the winter period) and it adds an additional set of disruptions if it wins the basic battle. That in turn can lower my TOE to the point where it becomes a rout not a retreat.

The extra losses are emptying my manpower pool (good), the routs push my infantry in particular towards NM, this means I need higher TOE to avoid unready status etc. So its now much more a set of gambles as my army frays.

With hindsight, should have done this earlier, as it is the AI has virtually no real mobile assets. It has Tank/Mech corps but they are often very weak, so its an essentially infantry army. Overall its too weak to do more than really press on a couple of sectors and I can break its front line elsewhere (if it would create a pocket).

More generally, my supply situation is so good that I almost never have Pzr etc formations under 45 MP

[loki100]

T139 – 13 February 1944

Few big issues. German infantry are now very weak when it comes to attacking. Combination of dropping NM (and since my losses are up, so are the proportion of replacements), the new TOEs and a global artillery shortage.

This division is maybe extreme but its not unusual for a formation that has been battered around. I'm starting to scrap specialist artillery formations, they will never really refit so best to concentrate the guns in the main combat formations.



My total pools don't look too bad, but the active pool is a pretty brutal bit of reading.



Whilst we are here – active tank pools. Rather wish I had more formations that would pick up the Tigers.



By last turn, I was reasonably content I'd taken the sting out of the Soviet offensive here. So much that I gambled on trying for an encirclement. Looks like instead I've managed to lose a Pzr division.



The sector held by 16 and 9 Armies has also stabilised. Still taking heavy losses but generally holding a line in the poor terrain. Sector is of no importance in itself but a Soviet break out would outflank Smolensk and threaten Pskov.

3 PzrA is refitting after a bruising pocket battle. Had to weaken 4A as a result but Soviet gains relatively limited.



1 PzrA is still clinging on at Kharkov, destroying more than a Soviet army in the pockets has relieved the pressure a bit this turn.


+
8A is sort of in control despite the open terrain. Every retreat extends the front and will uncover Kharkov. So if I can, I'll delay where the front currently is.



Losses. Ahem.

My permanent losses are 170,000 men, 6,000 guns and 800 tanks.

AI has lost 420,000 men, 11,000 guns and 3,000 tanks.



OOB. I'm down a net 90,000 men, 3,000 guns and 300 tanks. Some reflect withdrawals but also the escalating losses. AI is down 600,000 men, 12,000 guns but actually has a few more tanks.

At this rate the battle for Berlin is going to 1 vs 1.



Dealing with my escalating losses is hitting my manpower pool. Soviets sort of stable – should be improving as it repairs places like Stalino (this is another reason to carry on a fight for Kharkov),



VP calculations as before. The next set of critical turns are around 154 (no bonus for either Sevastopol or Odessa, this would be good as I took +12 for them) and then around 164 (Minsk, Pskov and Lvov – given where the front is I'm confident over Minsk and Lvov).

So if in 15 turns I'm still somewhere east of Smolensk, Kiev and around Dnepropetrovsk that starts to make a December 1944 win feasible.

[loki100]

T143 – 12 March 1944

Latest big change is I now need to use my Pzrs to attack Soviet penetrations in order to allow bypassed formations to retreat. So am steadily losing almost all agency.

Managed to free the Pzr division trapped at the last report and so far haven't lost anything in a pocket.

So, finally stabilised the situation here. Problem is I have a lot of formations locked into maintaining that. My intention is to wait for the weather to improve (this is the only sector with frozen major rivers) and then abandon Finland by trying to hold the Narva for as long as possible while concentrating 4 Pzr A in a defence of Pskov.



16 and 9 Armies can do little but fall back. This turn wasn't too bad so may be able to replenish my front lines.



2 and 4 Armies not much better. Worse is if I lose the current line, I'll need to pull back to the Smolensk defensive line. 3 PzrA still has some offensive punch but I think it now needs to retreat on Bryansk – increasingly I need it to back up 4A.



Think the battle for Kharkov is effectively over. Belgorod was liberated this turn and 1 Pzr A is both locked into the front lines and increasingly spread out.



This doesn't help. I'm going to pull 8A into the Dnepr bend (not frozen) and try to restore the situation there. That means relying on the 2 Rumanian Armies to hold the lower Dnepr but the terrain is in my favour.

Have decided to abandon the Crimea – I'll leave a Rumanian Corps in Sevastopol but basically I'll cede the time bonus for a better defense along the Dnepr (at least I earlier had a +6 for Sevastopol, so that is neutral).



Losses. Permanent loss of 150,000 men (so around 35k+ per week), 4,500 guns (I'm going to end up with no artillery) and 500 tanks. Soviet permanent losses of 170k, 5,000 guns and 2,000 tanks.

In effect we are now trading off at 1-1.



OOB. Manpower static, down 1,700 guns and 300 tanks. Soviets up 100,000 men, 2,000 guns and 150 tanks.

My only real advantage now is in terms of armoured forces. Just about keeping 3 PzrA as a mobile force but 1 and 4 Pzr increasingly committed to the front lines.

In theory I outnumber the Soviets but in practice the AI can concentrate on what it sees as a key sector.



Manpower pools. Still can replace my losses (of infantry at least). The 120 morale/tac nukes is triggering routs as my combat elements are disrupted. The good thing is with a couple of turns rest, a formation can replace its actual losses and recover its damaged elements. So where I can gain a turn with less pressure, I can relatively easily recover.

Clearly the Soviets are short of manpower – which really is now my main hope.



VP situation, I've written off Finland and Sevastopol so my assumption is that is +72 gone. That still leaves the AI almost 300 below the HWM.

There are only 130 core VP in the Soviet Union (excl Sevastopol) and 36 time pts. Rumania is 60/72 (depends on the time bonus). I've now set up the LW divisions so that Bucharest and Ploesti stay in my hands if Rumania surrenders.

This is less about holding onto them, and more that it gives me a chance to deny the time bonus.

Putting that together for Finland, Rumania and the 1941 USSR there are 240 city points and 60 time points left. I'm pretty sure I can deny Lvov, Minsk and Odessa.

Given what is happening on map, Pskov looks like the next challenge – I only need to hold it for 21 turns.

So it now looks like the AI needs to make gains across the border to avoid the HWM test. All I need is for my battered army to hold together, but I feel more willing to cede ground for a respite.



Really need the variable April-May weather, not least the LW is starting to take heavy losses or pcik up low experience pilots. Any formation that ends up with experience<NM goes to the reserve to train – no point losing my critical advantage over the VVS.

The steady destruction of my artillery is really weakening my infantry formations.

[loki100]

T147 – 9 April 1944

Weather is, entertainingly, all over the place. Last turn the north had heavy rain, this turn its clear skies and heavy mud.

Few external events of importance.

I've abandoned Finland to its fate by pulling back in the north. As noted a few times, there is nothing I can do to remove the time bonus for Helsinki (so the Soviets get that even if the armistice occurs later than historically), so my decision was driven purely by on map criteria.

I've had a couple of 'NW Europe delayed'. Helps a little as D-day radically increases my losses and, for the end game, holding onto Frankfurt just a little longer helps to keep a functioning NSS structure in place.



None of the VP calculations are different, for the moment its all about controling the time bonuses. Odessa will be a net +6 to me (as I took it early), I should get some bonus out of Sevastopol (unless it falls before T149), pretty confident over Lvov, Minsk and Riga. Not sure about Pskov and Talinin.



Have given up a lot here but will significantly shorten my lines and have the poor terrain N of Pskov – and a reasonably fresh collection of Pzrs.

I still suspect I'll lose Pskov early. Talinin will be worth leaving divisions in the city in an attempt to gain a few more turns.



Was under a lot of pressure here. But to be realistic, I'm still east of Smolensk and have a good fortfified line to fall back through – its a long way to Minsk.

I suspect at some stage I'll need to give up a lot of space due to losses in the AGN sector.



4A and 3 PzrA are now back around Bryansk but I have a lot of broken terrain I can trade before the AI reaches the Dnepr on that sector.

Similarly here, the defensive line protecting Kiev has a lot of terrain it can abandon.



Want to hold the Dnepr bend as long as I can. Not shown but another fortified belt protecting Rumania, so while I have less scope to retreat here, I do have a series of fall back lines.



OOB. I'm up around 100k men (mainly transfers in, I've just had the SS formations that were historically released after the disanster in Korsun (alwasy worth bearing in mind these ahistorical gains when people complain about the scripted transfers out).

I've also gained 3,000 guns and 1,100 tanks. Soviets are down 70,000 men (I managed a pocket as they followed up my last retreat), but have gained 400 guns and 1,600 tanks. For the first time, their Tank/Mech corps are filling out.



Losses.

Mine have slowed a bit – 100,000 men (permanent), 2,000 guns and 300 tanks. Soviets have lost 220,000 men, 4,000 guns and 1,500 tanks.



Rarely show this as its not of much value. I have near limitless planes, so can replace my losses, issue is picking up untrained pilots (so making use of the reserve to address this).

Mostly just using auto-intercept and GS.



My manpower reserve stays stable.

[loki100]

T153– 4 June 1944

So wonder if something might happen next turn. Probably not as I think I have 3 'Western Europe delayed' events and several now for Italy – so that should slow the Allies to their historical rates.



On map is grim but just starting to slow the Soviet offensive that opened in May. One additional problem is that at 120 morale, the VVS can often match my formations for morale if not for experience, so the LW is getting battered.

Still this starts to look good.



So far, my focus has been on how to deny the AI 741 VP at the end of 1944. Given that the 1944 time bonuses are slipping away (at least within the 1941 USSR) may be more instructive to pose the other part of the equation – what does the AI now need to meet 741? Well the gap is – obviously – 330.

Ignoring time bonuses (where I can deny these), it can pick up 120 for the USSR (and 36 for Finland). So that is 156. 60 For Rumania brings them to 216, so lets say 110 short.

If Rumania goes, Belgrade will follow (this is basically by event) and in Poland there is Warsaw, Poznan, Krakow, and Breslau. So that is 50. Koenigsberg is in that tier so say 60. It will need 9 maximum time bonuses and there are only 14 left (for this set of cities).

Budapest (30) changes this calculation but from experience with StB and vs the Axis AI, its hard to supply the Red Army in Hungary – unless you really know what you are doing.

So lets look at what that means in practice. Pskov and Talinin are the immediate risks. 18A has made the AI lose interest in attacking towards Talinin, 18, 16 and 4 PzrA doing ok at Pskov.

Not shown but 16A is being steadily pushed back to Velikie-Luki so at some stage I need to abandon this sector – ideally I somehow cling to Talinin for 20 turns. Not sure this is feasible but I can leave the best part of a Corps there as a a final delaying force.



Just pulled back onto the fortified belt at Smolensk and the poor terrain at Bryansk. Even 3 or 4 turns here reduces the cost of losing Minsk – as well as making any gains in Poland very unlikely till late 1944.



Steadily retreating but just clinging to Sumy and Poltava. Can give up a lot of ground before Kiev is threatened, in turn that helps slow any threat to Lvov and beyond.



This sector will crumble badly when the AI is ready to attack but for the moment holding the Dnepr. When the front collapses, 11A will fall back towards Rumania.



Losses over the last 9 weeks (about half with really poor weather). Axis 180k men (permanent), 5,000 guns and 1,400 tanks. Soviets 200k men, 7,000 guns and 3,300 tanks. I can't see any scope for pockets any more so i suspect this even trade will persist till I finally start losing formations in encirclement.



My OOB numbers are a bit hard to read with units shifting Theatre on a regular basis. I'm down a net 40k men,1,200 guns and 600 tanks. Soviets are down 200k men, 6,000 guns and 500 tanks.

In the air, the VVS is starting to dominate.

If it wasn't for the 120 morale effects this would be a stalemate – as it is the AI can't press all across the front so I have respite from the worst battering.



Soviet manpower pool remains low but I suspect it will improve as it adds more cities. I can still refit the infantry elements even of my worst hit formations.

[Seminole]

Whilst we are here – active tank pools. Rather wish I had more formations that would pick up the Tigers.

Can you redeploy the heavy panzer battalions to heavier action, or are the Tigers hard to crack?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Seminole

Whilst we are here – active tank pools. Rather wish I had more formations that would pick up the Tigers.

Can you redeploy the heavy panzer battalions to heavier action, or are the Tigers hard to crack?

yes, to both really.


The Heavy Pzr battalions are an SU that I do move around a lot depending on which Pzr Army needs the help. At the time I wrote that, very few Axis CU TOEs took them, with the mid-44 changes there are more now in the actual Pzr formations (prob now a 40/60 split CU/SU).

And they take relatively low losses, so I'm not emptying the pool to replenish a badly hit Pzr division which can happen with my stocks of IV/V series.

There is a situational element, while its recovering, the AI lost the bulk of its armour in the initial 1942/3 offensive. I found it easy to cut off Tank/Mech corps in small pockets so it has very few weapon systems that can readily damage a Tiger. Even now I can hit a Tank Corps with only 40 or so tanks.

[loki100]

T160 – 9 July 1944

Possibly the big news is no news. No signs of the Western Allies – I can only imagine that E-Stalin is complaining loudly and often.

I've had 5 or 6 'delayed' events and still gain a VP every now and then. Two advantages to this. When the Allies land my losses escalate and that becomes another drain on my manpower, armour and equipment. Also the garrison test is harder so this useful VP flow is stopped.



Also, being pragmatic, I'm now confident of winning come December 1944. The AI has around 25 turns to gain 290 VP, within the USSR, I know only think that Talinin will shed a time bonus.

So USSR+Finland+Rumania+Yugoslavia offer 186 (the only time bonus being Helsinki). So it needs to take 100 VP+ out of Poland, Hungary (70) and 3 locations actually in Germany.



The AI is now short of manpower but protected in part by the 120 morale setting and its rapidly improving TOEs. This is the second single Corps pocket I've managed on this sector. 4 PzrA is not exactly tank rich but its now enough to generate a localised encirclement (the AI has to concentrate for its breakthroughs).

In 4 turns I can restructure my entire deployment of AGN and AGS – gain time by breaking contact and pull back to a much shorter defensive line.



Smolensk has been a problem for some time now but I didn't expect a total collapse. I'm holding as it eases the challenge at Pskov (and means that AGN has an easy retreat).

I might be able to cut off the western portion of that breakthrough as I've been steadily moving 3 Pzr A into this sector over recent turns (the Pripyet starts to force a split between that and 1 Pzr).



In between this is a strong line on the Desna. I've pulled back a lot over the last 2 turns here and 1 Pzr A deploys firmly into the Ukraine. I can basically set my own tempo here now except for needing to cover the northern flanks of any approach to Rumania.



Which is now largely separated being covered by 3 and 4 Ru Armies and 8A A combination of the lower Dnestr, poor terrain and fortifications are my last protection for Rumania. Even at the worst, I don't see that line being broken before September.



Its not a lot of lost units but anything really helps me. Most of mine are airbase losses and a few voluntary disbands.




Axis permanent losses of 200,000 over the last month, just under 5,000 guns and over 1,000 tanks. Soviet losses of 220,000 men, 5,000 guns and 2,500 tanks. So (with the pockets) basically 1-1.



Soviet manpower reserves very low (good).German reserves down 80k (one reason I am glad re the delay of the Normandy landings – even if it also slows the post-Paris bonus). Rumania and Hungary stable and still able to replace their losses.



Active tank pools, as above I could do with more use for the Tigers. Combination of not being a typical CU TOE and low losses.



Artillery situation is dire. The effect of this is I have a lot of infantry divisions with few, if any, heavy weapons. If the AI could still sustain regular pressure my infantry would just fall apart.



Overall OOB. As before, hard to interpret mine now due to the regular transfers but overall German numbers down 50k, 2,000 guns and 700 tanks. Soviets down 200k, 3,000 guns and 500 tanks.

[loki100]

T163 – 30 July 1944

Again, possibly the main events are off map. Finland, predictably, is out of the war, the Allies arrive in France (about 6 weeks late) and Italy seems to be on schedule.



VP situation needs no real analysis. I think the only time bonus for the 1941 USSR and Rumania available is now Talinin. Riga, possibly, but its some distance and I have the fresh formations of 18A to create a defense there (plus FZ have been busy).



2 Divisions, plus a corps HQ have retreated to Talinin to see if I can retain the time bonus. Have set up a naval and transport group to see if I can sustain this. As in the insets, some extra protection already in place for Riga and Koenigsberg. With these ports, I'm much more prepared to leave units behind even if I can't overstack (I could at Koenigsberg so the question is whether that is worth tieing up the resources).



Velikie Luki-Vitebsk-Orsha. Going back to the last post, I cut off and destroyed a fair bit of that Soviet breakthough but at a cost of substantial Soviet gains on the flanks. Worth it – I think. 3 PzrA now firmly on this sector.

The retreat in the Baltics will force a major redesign of my line here – helped a bit as the Pripyet now splits the front. I'm looking for a short line where hopefully I can double stack the front line infantry divisions.



Linked to that, now using the fortified lines built east of Kiev. 6A will retreat in the Pripyet.

Tried to cut off a spearhead here and got badly beaten as a result – even agains tthe AI it is a bit like playing 'chicken'.



To the south, 8A plus the Rumanians are still defending Nikolaev and the lower Bug.

Soviets need to reach List to set Rumania up for a surrender and there is one more good defensive line before there.



Permanent losses, Axis 120,000 men, 3,000 guns and 900 tanks. AI has lost 200,000 men, 4,000 guns and 2,000 tanks. That pocket at Smolensk broke the usual 1-1 pattern of exchanges.



The VVS has won the air war. Last 2 turns I set the entire LW to rest as I re-organised and tried to concentrate it over specific sectors. Again, the retreat in the Baltics will make it easier to share assets across the forces north of the Pripyet.



OOB, again read the German line with care due to all the transfers (in and out). But my basic numbers are static, down 1,500 guns and 100 tanks. My reserve has just been boosted by the evactuation from Finland (not sure if this is WAD or a bug). Some needs to go to Norway, some can go West but its a useful supplement of SU.

I've been destroying a lot of artillery SU. The situation is really poor and the infantry divisions need some organic heavy weapons. That means a weak SU is never going to refit but does sit on a few guns.



Not shown, but no real changes to the manpower pool.

[Jango32]

Just a few more months and you'll be home for Christmas '44.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Jango32

Just a few more months and you'll be home for Christmas '44.

yes, it does have a bit of a feel of running the clock out, but I'm glad I have a large safety net.

Want to take it to the formal test point as I've found a few issues with the vp scoring post-initiative change (that can't be seen from StB start), so worth it just for that

[loki100]

T168 – 3 September 1944

Mostly still controlling the situation. At Kiev and Vitebsk, my preset fort lines effectively halted any Soviet gains, but inevitably there are gaps.

The artillery problem becomes crippling. Partly due to the 120 morale/tac nukes giving more routs (= lost artillery) – but then this has to be offset with no units lost in pockets. The other emerging problem is badly hit formations flip to the VG TOE (ie become near useless). Still the big VP situation remains as in the last post, the AI now has to get into the Reich to avoid the 31 December HWM test.

Off map, all my Theatres are above the baseline and I'm getting a steady flow of either VP or 'delayed' messages.

On map, I held onto my defensive line a turn too long and paid quite a price.

Stay behind force at Talinin holds out. The time bonus there is now only +5 (so at worst I have a net +1 on the trade).

More generally I thought I had my retreat in Estonia under more control than it was. My intention was a sructured redeployment to a Riga-Minsk line over a few turns, as it is I need to make the moves more rapidly and with a lot of formations that need to refit.



Here I retain a firm grip on the Orsha-Mogilev-Vitebsk sector but now need to abandon it due to the problems facing AGN and the Soviet breakout in this sector. As such its not too dangerous but I have a lot of unready units and risk losing some if I retreat too fast.



Another sector where my lines have held well for a few turns but need to retreat.



Mainly as my lines on the Bug were breached. Its not the gains as such, but again I have a lot of units that now need to refit and that badly weakens my ability to hold a line.



Losses. Since start of August, my (permanent) losses are 200,000 men, 4,000 guns and 1,400 tanks. Soviets have lost 200,000 men (I suspect I will never again manage a pocket), 4,500 guns and 4,000 tanks.



OOB. Usual caveats re transfers but I am down 160,000 men, 1,000 guns and 800 tanks. Soviets have gained 120,000 men, 2,000 guns but have lost 1,000 tanks.



Came up on the main forum – here is my fuel and oil stocks. Synthetic fuel production is offsetting the small deficit in terms of actual oil production.

[loki100]

T174 – 15 October 1944

Western Allies finally making some progress, but I am still getting some 'delayed' events and a few VP.



Fall of Paris triggers another manpower boost. Useful as the only parts of my manpower pool that matter any more are Hungary and Germany.



The crippling artillery shortage now dominates my army, far more than manpower.

On map I have 159 German infantry divisions with an average manpower of around 9,000 (not too bad as that includes VG and LW formations), but the average artillery allocation is about 60. As you can see from the small selection, there are plently well below even that. Also most of the artillery is heavy mortars. So I have quite strong units that are basically armed with infantry squad weapons.

I've scrapped almost every artillery SU that falls below 50 TOE as its better to have the assets in the combat units.



Despite that, should be safe for the 31 December 1944 check. I lost one time pt on Talinin, given it is heavy rain in the north this turn I can hold Riga for 2 more turns.

I've just done a naval evac from Odessa so that will fall, Minsk is on the front line and Rumania is looking for an exit. However, have Ploesti-Bucharest garrisoned so they don't immediately flip to the Soviets.

In essence the AI needs to take 214 VP in 11 turns to match the HWM and 90-100 are in relatively easy reach.



Losses since August. My permanent losses are 360,000 men, 8,000 guns and 2,500 tanks. The heavy gun losses reflect all the routs that kick in due to the 120 AI morale. Soviet losses are 330,000 men, 10,000 guns and 7,500 tanks,

No point showing the air losses. The VVS has won that duel (partly the 120 morale) and I'm just extracting what I can from what is left.



Usual disclaimer about reading OOB changes for my side. But I am down 500,000 on map, a net loss of 3,300 guns and 1,500 tanks. The Soviets are up 50,000 men, 600 guns and 200 tanks – if I recall they start to trigger a number of scripted transfers out about now.

All I can say is I am so glad I did so much damage in 1942 and to some extent over 1943. At least it can only attack in a sustained manner on particular sectors.



In a way the map is the least important place. I'm holding a line Riga-Minsk reasonably strongly. That in turn protects the potential VP locations in E Prussia and N Poland.

This turn it was heavy rain/light mud, should worsen for the next 2 turns which ends any feasible threat to my core VP locations.



N Ukraine is not too bad. 1 PzrA gives me some control – even if it is mostly committed into the front lines. 6A and 4A weak but managing a structured retreat in the Pripyet. The Hungarians are a weak spot but the AI has other interests.



Last turn I was content here. Was holding the lower Dnestr, and to the north a combination of fortifications and the rough terrain gave me a secure position. Near complete collapse so the need now is to pull 8A back to where it is safe when Rumania surrenders. I've just done a naval evac of Odessa.

I have a line from Hungary-Bulgaria via Ploesti-Bucherest. That was set up to protect the VP but it should also make a mess of the rail net when the Soviets take control. I have 2 of my FBD lounging around in Hungary in case it is worth repairing any key sectors.