South China Sea

[DWReese]

Dimitris,

Since the LIVE: Spratly Spat scenario was released (about two years ago), China has continued to build up their "claimed" islands/reefs in the SCS, and many islands/reefs now consist of actual runways, SAMs, SSMs, buildings, towers, docks, etc. These are far more advanced than the generic Platform C structures listed in the original scenario.

I was wondering what your thoughts were on how these structures/units will be represented in the game in the future? What is the best method (if there is one) of being able to now represent something like these man-made islands/reefs. I can definitely see this becoming a flash point in the near future, and I fear that limiting them to mere platforms might not be enough.

Do you have any suggestions?

Doug

[DWReese]

Quite a bit has changed since the original LIVE: Spratly Spat scenario came out.

China has completely built three of the islands into military complexes. In fact, Subi Island reportedly has over 400 buildings on it alone. These are not merely sandbars in the middle of the ocean anymore. Recently YJ-12B SSM (with a range of 215 miles) and HQ-9B SAMs have been photographed there. Y-7 and Y-8 transport planes obviously land there, and J-10 and J-11 fighters, similar to those on Woody Island are soon likely to be deployed as well. The islands also serve as a port-of-call for many of their warships. The below link will provide even more detail:

https://amti.csis.org/accounting-chinas ... y-islands/

At some point the "legal" owners will have to stand up to this aggression, or forego their claims to the islands altogether. They obviously can't do much unless they are supported by the US, England, or Australia. With the new tariffs/sanctions/fees/etc. being imposed on China, I can envision a situation where China elects to start imposing some kind of tariff of their own for foreign vessels entering, or sailing through, the SCS. If it ever came to that, I could see a situation where a military conflict could take place.

The biggest disadvantage for China is the fact that the islands are quite far from the mainland, and their carrier isn't really capable of going toe-to-toe with the a/c of the surrounding nations or a US carrier group. But, if they could properly stock these islands with enough weaponry, they could make it difficult for any nation trying to expel them.

To me, this sounds like a very good beginnings of a scenario that might be kind of fun to play. Any of you scenario designers out there up for the challenge?

Doug

[BeirutDude]

I've actually wanted to but my understanding is the new islands aren't represented on the map. Am I in error on this?

Never mind just answered my own question.

[DWReese]

Well, are they? It seems that some 'area" around the reef now seems to now be set at 3 feet elevation. So, perhaps they have addressed that. I'm going to try and build a base later tonight to see how much "stuff" I can put on it. I don't know if the size of the reef has anything to do with how many units I can place on it or not.

From what I gather, the "Big Three" (Subi, Mischief, and Fiery Cross) should all follow Woody Island, and will likely all be similar. It seems as though there should be 20 small plane hangers; 2 medium sized shelters; 1 or 2 large sized shelters; HQ-9 SAMs; YJ-12B SSMs; along with the runway and assorted other things towers and fuel tanks.

That should probably give me a good start representation of the military there.

Doug

[BeirutDude]

I Tried yesterday evening and everyplace I attempted to place a facility indicated it was underwater. Maybe you’ll have better luck than I did. [X(]

[TYHo]

ORIGINAL: BeirutDude

I Tried yesterday evening and everyplace I attempted to place a facility indicated it was underwater. Maybe you’ll have better luck than I did. [X(]

I think the trick is to 'add' the facility anywhere on a landmass, then 'move' it to the place u want at the 'sea'...

[SeaQueen]

I Tried yesterday evening and everyplace I attempted to place a facility indicated it was underwater. Maybe you’ll have better luck than I did.

Are you upgraded to the latest version? I've been building bases out there for fun. It helps to use map overlays to see where the land is, though.

[AlphaSierra]

They wont look anything like Woody, when your done.
Don't forget Johnson Reef, Hughes, Gaven and my favorite Cuarteron reef
Most of these are IMO more high value than Firey Cross, Mischief or Subi

[DWReese]

The articles that I provided seem to indicate that most (if not all) of the work being done is on those three Islands. In fact, they refer to them as "The Big Three." So, I'm a little confused as to why you would mention these other three. Sure, the LIVE scenario includes them, but I haven't really found much evidence that the three that you mentioned were more prevalent than The Big Three. If you have some supporting docs, please let me know. I'd love to see anything that you (or anyone) might have.

Thanks.

Doug

[kevinkins]

Maybe these pieces of land are just too small within the allowable placement grid for commercial Command. The difference between land and sea has to be very stark when trying to place stuff on tiny specks. Pretty sure the Pro edition of Command has these pieces of land very well mapped out and much easier to design scenarios for without overlays. If overlays help the commercial edition, then many would love to d/l them.

Kevin

[SeaQueen]

If overlays help the commercial edition, then many would love to d/l them.

Get GMAP!

[kevinkins]

I have GMAP and it's a pain in the ass so why not just post your marvelous creations to help the community out? Pretty simple. Right? Of course you do not have these overlays you are talking about ... do you? They do not exist. Or else you would have posted them for your friends in this forum to use and have fun with. Why keep them under your pillow?

Kevin

[DWReese]

Anyone have any info (articles, etc.) on the various Chinese radar and EW-type units that may be used in the SCS? I get the impression, from the limited resources that I have read, that China will use jammers and ELINT units on these islands/reefs.

I have recently placed the SSM on the three reefs and Woody Island, as described in the article that I provided earlier. Interestingly, the 215 nm range of their SSM, placed at each of those four locations, can pretty much cover the entire SCS coast to coast. They have definitely thought this one out.

I do believe that occupying these reefs gives China a huge buffer of security around the mainland. More importantly, China (as I mentioned before) could try to start placing tariffs on imported goods coming into the country, or charging shipping fees to recoup some of their recent economic laws. (Hey, it could be possible.) In any case, the SSM batteries located on these reefs pretty much give China the means to be able to hit any ship in the SCS. It's just a thought.

Doug

[kevinkins]

Many folks think that these islands amount to no more than the French Maginot Line did in 1940. While, any hypothetical conflict over them is really cool, I would put China at a terrible and crushing disadvantage vs the US and their Allies in any scenario.

[Anathema]

It shouldn't be too hard to edit the map and the GIS data it is based on to add the islands since I believe it's based on standard data formats. There are open source programs that can do it that usually work with vectors or height maps, although I am guessing it would need to be done by hand since the publicly available data tends to cover land masses since it makes no sense to send topography mapping satellites over oceans.

Probably wouldn't be completely accurate without the bathymetry data that only the PLA would know and have mapped, but adding a patch of what is pretty much flat land a few feet above sea level and the vector outline for a new land mass should suffice and be pretty easy to do.

I am kind of surprised someone other than the devs haven't done it yet since there is loads of GIS data online and an active community, but perhaps because they haven't since it would be a rough guess rather than accurate survey based on actual measurement.

[AlphaSierra]

Your search for radar and other EW in the SCS will lead you to answer your own question about "the Big three"

[AlphaSierra]

Your assessment of the practicality of these fixed targets is spot on, and indeed does demonstrate poor planning on the Chinese part.

Perhaps they have other uses for them planned?

[DWReese]

I'm interested in a more detailed assessment as to why you (and Kevin) believe that a conflict would be so one-sided.

I do agree that a battle for islands stuck in the middle of nowhere seems kind of foolish. At the same time, IF China could actually use the islands to enforce shipping regulations (tariffs) they would actually be able to control the area.

As far as a fight is concerned, the SSM mentioned have a great range. The number of missile launchers installed is obviously not known. The hangers, etc., would suggest that 20 fighters, some transport planes, some surveillance air craft, and EW aircraft would likely be stationed there. Each of these four islands would likely have the same make-up. None of these make the islands impenetrable as targets, but exactly how far would other nations want to go to take on China? It appears that the Philippines are already wavering, and the rest will obviously fall in line with China if the US, England and Australia do nothing.

From a world view, it seems to me that the Chinese began wagering that the Obama administration wasn't going to challenge them (they were correct), and that the Trump administration has more things to worry about than some dumb islands in the SCS. So, by the time some country (or countries) is willing to take them on, the consequences may be far greater than they initially were.

It's just some thoughts. I'd love to hear other takes on the situation.

Doug

[DWReese]

I appears that the latest version has very light lines which have been drawn where the artificial land mass is. If you point to it, in most cases that area will now show at 3 feet elevation. I was able to install some units there, but it is very tiny and is a little difficult to work with. I created a base (minus barracks, etc.), and managed to get it all in. One problem occurs as you zoom in closer to make the area larger, you will no longer be able to see the outline of the land/sea demarcation. Often I would try to add another unit only to be advised that I was adding a stucture into the sea, and that the process was halted.

Otherwise, it works well. I have tried to actually do anything with the units as of yet, however.

Doug

[kevinkins]

The SCS is an excellent hotspot for designers to consider. But I would keep the scenario below the level of WW3 and perhaps even keep the US out of the scenario. I think the threat those islands pose is overblown. They say if you can see it you can destroy it. I would hate to be stationed on those islands if the US went after them. I don't believe China is operationally ready (i.e. training/experience/tradition) for major combined arms conflict. They have not fought a major war in a long time. Of course, the US is rusty at surface combat too. But I think they would make fewer mistakes and come out ahead as long if they were not simply overwhelmed by numbers. Which could happen hypothetically and might make for a cool battle to simulate. Be interested to hear what others think since the SCS is in the news just about every day.

Here is a lengthy analysis:

https://www.cato.org/publications/polic ... sea-policy

Kevin