Loss Aversion Among Scenario Designers

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Gunner98
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RE: Loss Aversion Among Scenario Designers

Post by Gunner98 »

get a human ref or to evaluate the win-loss

Well that's sort of what I do in my day job [;)] but tricky in a game.

To accomplish the balance is a real trick I think. I don't want to sound like I have the answer - because I don't, but by mixing the three scoring themes I think it works. This is all rough guidelines not a rule that I use, but it seems to work OK.

First thing is working in the unit point value, if you lose a capital ship - even if mission and all tasks are accomplished, you shouldn't get a Triumph. Losing a carrier to succeed on a mission should probably end up in a loss - well that's a value judgment but fits in with the story award.

Mission acomplishment should be worth a goodly sum. If you achieve your mission with minimal losses, that should equal a Triumph. Minimal is reletive, <10% or so.

In any complex scenarios you need multiple tasks (I think), some contribute to the mission, some to the story and some to both.

Eg: You've got a CVBG (or CSG if you go modern) and your mission is to strike a bunch of land targets. These targets should be specified (as they would be, you're a tactical unit and are told what needs to be hit).
-Multiple targets are better than one.
-If an airbase or a complex target, you get decent points for what you're told to strike
-total points for all mission specific targets should add up to about 3/4 of a Triumph

Tasks like - a pop up SAR, positoning assets at a certain point, delivering something somewhere, UNREP etc
-there should be several
-they should be divers
-at least some of them should be a drain on resources
-one or two have to be very risky, to the point a commander may opt not to complete them
-These should total to about 1/2 of a Triumph

Story awards, often time based, sometimes key to the next scenario (or story), sometimes distracting, always at least somewhat interesting.
These should add up to about 1/4 of a Triumph

So it is possible, if you achieve all your tasks and story awards, part of your mission set, and cause some losses without taking any - that you could get a Triumph without completely accomplishing your mission. Unlikely but possible. I rationalize that by the likely losses and situation you have put on the enemy, you will acomplish the mission shortly, or indirectly.

In most cases though, if the player doesn't take huge losses but accomplishes the mission, a Triumph will be had.

Anyway, please don't go back and check my scenarios [:'(], as this is the first time I've actualy articulated this and most of the time its more feel than science. That's why play-testing is important.

B
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kevinkins
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RE: Loss Aversion Among Scenario Designers

Post by kevinkins »

Unfortunately, giving the AI (computer controlled forces) a material advantage is the primary way to give the human player a fight once they become proficient at Command. Designers can also provide their AI a scoring advantage and program scripted AI tactics like “ambushes” since the designer knows more about the situation than the player. This issue is not unique to Command at all and has been with war games forever. This is why a player friendly H2H system for Command has to be implicated so players can challenge one another in balanced matches. Additionally, larger scenarios tend to balance themselves if the allocated victory points are set correctly.


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RE: Loss Aversion Among Scenario Designers

Post by mikmykWS »

ORIGINAL: Gunner98

Anyway, please don't go back and check my scenarios [:'(], as this is the first time I've actualy articulated this and most of the time its more feel than science. That's why play-testing is important.

B

Very much agree. Thanks Gunner!

The only reason I go back and check your scenarios is to find out why I lost[;)]

Mike

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SeaQueen
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RE: Loss Aversion Among Scenario Designers

Post by SeaQueen »

ORIGINAL: kevinkin
Unfortunately, giving the AI (computer controlled forces) a material advantage is the primary way to give the human player a fight once they become proficient at Command.

That's not necessarily unrealistic, either. Only fools choose to fight fair fights. Defense is learning how to fight back against unfair fights. Offense, on the other hand, is about massing a sufficiently large force and concentrating a sufficient volume of firepower to overwhelm the defending adversary. Very few real battles are fought with one side or the other not possessing a substantial material advantage. "Fair" fights tend to be accidental meeting engagements with no decisive outcome.
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RE: Loss Aversion Among Scenario Designers

Post by Cik »

well, that's why the scoring is often relatively tilted- given overwhelming force requires the "victory" condition to be pushed beyond "achieved objective" to be challenging.

if you could do the military equivalent of just attack-moving towards the objective and win a triumph it wouldn't be hard enough to be replayable.

i mean granted in most scenarios i've played anyway, even what i would consider a rash streak of losses hardly counts as a defeat. instead you usually just win a marginal victory instead.

what scenarios in particular have you played that encourage overcaution? perhaps we're just not picking the same ones.
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RE: Loss Aversion Among Scenario Designers

Post by pjb1 »

I have made a few scenarios and am working on a campaign, in some of the scenarios I have no points for losses, the objectives are where the scoring is.
Before you use Mikes argument about completing the task but it costing a ton of resources, when I set this up I try to ensure if you have a bunch of losses
you wont be able to complete the objectives.
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SeaQueen
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RE: Loss Aversion Among Scenario Designers

Post by SeaQueen »

ORIGINAL: Cik
well, that's why the scoring is often relatively tilted- given overwhelming force requires the "victory" condition to be pushed beyond "achieved objective" to be challenging.

That's assuming you're on the offense. If you're defending against overwhelming odds, then it would be disproportionate.
if you could do the military equivalent of just attack-moving towards the objective and win a triumph it wouldn't be hard enough to be replayable.

That might be a solution. The Vietnamese did it in the Vietnam War. The Chinese did it in the Korean War.
what scenarios in particular have you played that encourage overcaution? perhaps we're just not picking the same ones.

The one I was thinking of was "Operation Brass Drum." It's actually one of my favorites, but after playing it a few times, I started modifying it because I had some critiques. Example: Losing an F-35 results in the same point penalty as losing a CLF, an Amphib, or a DDG. YIKES!!!! To make matters worse, the only thing worth (maybe) risking an F-35 against is an SA-20. Even then, if you lose one of them destroying an SA-20, you get no net point benefit. If you lose more than one of them, you might as well not even attempt to strike them! The point system in that scenario essentially signals to the player that the F-35 is barely useful. Essentially, that's an expression of the scenario designer's opinion about the F-35. The point system essentially forces a tactical decision.

Similarly, losing a Hornet costs me 8 points but killing one of their fighters wins me only 2 points. That means I have to achieve an exchange ratio of greater than 4:1 just to not lose points in air to air combat, regardless of whether the enemy aircraft actually achieve their goal or not. So even if I defeat the enemy aircraft, I might still lose points! It raises questions about whether it's actually worth risking aircraft in air to air combat at all. The scoring system signals to the player a tactical decision. It's even worse with F-35s. I'd have to shoot down 25 other aircraft to justify the loss of a single F-35.

My opinion is that scoring shouldn't force tactical decisions on the player. It definitely ought not reflect a scenario designer's opinions regarding the tactical utility of a platform. That's what I mean by things seeming disproportionate. The scoring system shouldn't function to artificially constrain the player to make solve problems in specific ways. A good scenario (to me) is an opportunity to experiment with different approaches to a problem and then decide what works better and what works worse.




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RE: Loss Aversion Among Scenario Designers

Post by Cik »

well, i don't know about all that. i think the scoring is often more a "game" function than a sim function. one might ask why an F-35 costs 25x as much as a mig-21 or whatever- what's that based on? it's not based on cost (well, it could be but in this example it's not) it's mostly just based on the fact that the scenario designer thinks that given the challenge a player should not lose an F-35 often (if at all)

i guess look at it this way; you're playing a game wherein you are tasked with taking a city and you are given an infantry formation with tank support- the enemy has no tanks. while it's possible to lose the tank to fire (mines, RPGs, flipping it over or whatever) the scenario designer thinks that you shouldn't lose it and that given the calculus of the forces it should be possible for a skilled player to keep it intact the majority of the time. far removed from this is the fact that the army has thousands of these tanks or that they cost X amount a unit or whatever- mostly it's just that in this very focused arena the tank is a survivable unit and it would take a very unlucky fluke or a certain negligence on the player's side to lose it.

I don't think that the F-35 being expensive is a geopolitical commentary or a statement on the expense of 5th generation fighters. I think it's simply that the scenario designer wanted you to shepherd them carefully.


as to that specific case i think F-35 being worth 25 enemy fighters is basically pushing it. in principle though i don't object to this sort of concept.

the scoring i think is a surrogate for a wider, campaign-level view- in a real war, you keep your fighters around not because it will give you +5 points and a major victory but because you will probably need them later. the score is a substitute for that- "given the average losses we expected, you did better/worse than average." in the tank analogy, the large score penalty for losing the tank is a substitute for the later campaign level "you lost your abrams and there's a T-62 here now. good luck."

for this reason i think often score is mostly superfluous- if you lose an asset early in the fight the slap on the wrist in score you get often pales in comparison to the "well, how are you supposed to spot the TEL without your U-2, genius?"

there is probably an "ideal" way to design the score, but it's going to be really hard to actually come up with because of how diverse the environment can be.

just 2 cents though.
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RE: Loss Aversion Among Scenario Designers

Post by SeaQueen »

ORIGINAL: Cik
well, i don't know about all that. i think the scoring is often more a "game" function than a sim function. one might ask why an F-35 costs 25x as much as a mig-21 or whatever- what's that based on? it's not based on cost (well, it could be but in this example it's not) it's mostly just based on the fact that the scenario designer thinks that given the challenge a player should not lose an F-35 often (if at all)

That's exactly the problem. I have no idea what's it's based on. It's an arbitrary decision that says more about what the scenario designer thinks than it actually does about the "winability" of the scenario, the capabilities of the platforms in it, their relative costs, etc. If the point of the scoring system in a scenario is to arbitrate whether you win or lose the game, and the point of the game is simulate something, then the scoring system ought to realistically reflect what a "win" or "loss" looks like. If it doesn't somehow realistically reflect the risks and rewards of the scenario, then you end up with problems like I just pointed out (e.g. no target is juicy enough in the entire scenario to justify risking the platforms most capable of taking it out - the "give peace a chance" school of wargaming).

i guess look at it this way; you're playing a game wherein you are tasked with taking a city and you are given an infantry formation with tank support- the enemy has no tanks. while it's possible to lose the tank to fire (mines, RPGs, flipping it over or whatever) the scenario designer thinks that you shouldn't lose it and that given the calculus of the forces it should be possible for a skilled player to keep it intact the majority of the time. far removed from this is the fact that the army has thousands of these tanks or that they cost X amount a unit or whatever- mostly it's just that in this very focused arena the tank is a survivable unit and it would take a very unlucky fluke or a certain negligence on the player's side to lose it.

All this amounts to the scenario designer turning the tank (or F-35) into a golden magic BB. It's enormously capable, but I can't afford to actually use it, because if I use it and lose it, I suffer such an enormous cost that I can't make it up elsewhere. That's not a usable weapons system. If a real decision maker decided that a weapons system is a golden BB, then it ought to be held back for some other conflict where deploying it is worth the risk (i.e. it ought not be in the scenario).
I don't think that the F-35 being expensive is a geopolitical commentary or a statement on the expense of 5th generation fighters. I think it's simply that the scenario designer wanted you to shepherd them carefully.

It might not be intentional, but effectively they're signaling in the scoring system that it's too expensive to use.
the scoring i think is a surrogate for a wider, campaign-level view- in a real war, you keep your fighters around not because it will give you +5 points and a major victory but because you will probably need them later. the score is a substitute for that- "given the average losses we expected, you did better/worse than average." in the tank analogy, the large score penalty for losing the tank is a substitute for the later campaign level "you lost your abrams and there's a T-62 here now. good luck."

Potentially, it could reflect higher level requirements or metrics. In fact, I think the degree of victory (and therefore the score) ought to reflect the scenario's contribution to the larger picture. To get a good scoring system, you really need to decide up front what victory actually looks like. It might be like:

-Preserve 75% of all strike aircraft
-Lost no more than 1 CVN
-Lost no more than 2 large surface combatants
-Destroy the bridge X, Y, and Z
-Destroy 25% of the enemy tanks

Then you need to decide what contribution to victory or defeat each condition makes:

-Preserve 75% of all strike aircraft - 25%
-Lost no more than 1 CVN - 100% (i.e. if I lose more than a CVN, I lose the war)
-Lost no more than 2 large surface combatants - 25%
-Destroy bridges X, Y, and Z - 50%
-Destroy 30% of the enemy tank platoons - 50%

Suppose the score represented your "percentage of victory" then the max score would be 100 (%). That represents total victory.

If you lose two CVNs then you lose 100%. Your score is zero.
If you lose more than 75% of all strike a/c then you lose 25, and you score 75.
If you lose more than two large surface combatants you lose 25, and you score 75.
If you don't lose 2 CVNs, preserve the required number of aircraft and surface combatants, plus destroy the bridges or the tanks you gain 50 points. Your score is 50.
If you don't lose 2 CVNs, preserve the required number of aircraft and surface combatants, plus destroy the bridges and the tanks you gain 100 points. Your score is 100 (i.e. total victory).

Then, to check if it makes sense, you consider total defeat and the intermediate cases short of total victory:

If I lose 2 CVNs, 2 surface combatants, and more than 75% of your aircraft without achieving the other goals, you get a -150. That's more than achieving the other two goals combined, so you're still firmly in loss territory. That makes sense.

If I lose 2 CVNs, but preserve my aircraft or surface ships, then I'm still losing more than either the other two goals are worth in combination.

If I lose 2 CVNs, but preserve my aircraft and surface ships, then I score 0 if I somehow achieve the other goals.

If I preserve all my CVNs and ships, but lose more than 75% of my aircraft, while destroying the bridges then I score -25+50 = 25. Not great. A tactical level victory even if an operational loss.

If I preserve all my CVNs and ships, but lose more than 75% of my aircraft, while destroying the bridges and the tanks then I score -25+50+50 = 75. Better, but less than total victory. Still maybe an operational level loss, albeit maybe a more justifiable one.

That all makes intuitive sense!

All this would be easy to implement in LUA by implementing counters. That's not usually how people do it though.
for this reason i think often score is mostly superfluous- if you lose an asset early in the fight the slap on the wrist in score you get often pales in comparison to the "well, how are you supposed to spot the TEL without your U-2, genius?"

If it's superfluous then someone did something wrong. That means a player can't realistically judge how well they did based on their score, which defeats the purpose of having a score. A player ought not essentially "throw away" part of the experience because it's perceived to be useless, or it's unclear what it's actually simulating.
there is probably an "ideal" way to design the score, but it's going to be really hard to actually come up with because of how diverse the environment can be.

If don't know if there's an ideal way, but there seems to be a more rational one as I just outlined, provided one has a clear idea up front what the scenario is attempting to achieve. I suspect some of the disproportionate costs and risks I see in some scenarios might reflect a lack of forethought regarding what player victory looks like, or what the player is really trying to achieve in the scenario. Rather than writing the scoring triggers to reflect the destruction of individual units or platforms, it makes more sense to write them in terms of slightly more abstracted conditionals. Otherwise, the score amounts to just a weighted exchange ratio, which potentially looks distorted when you ask how many of platform X is platform Y worth risking to destroy.
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RE: Loss Aversion Among Scenario Designers

Post by BeirutDude »

Niger, There is a perfect example how we as a society have determined that any loss is too high in political and real capital. Now consider that 73 years ago today we were fighting the Battle of the Bulge and each day we were incurring casualties we would consider intolerable in today's combat. Lets switch our focus to just the conventional situation on the Korean Peninsula and how NKPA artillery on the DMZ and the political, economic and human cost it could take has stayed the U.S. hand for four decades! I could go on and on, but when I design a scenario I consider that there is more at play than just unit value.

Now looking first at units, I'll use an F/A-18F, represents...

1. The cost of the unit and the cost of it's eventual replacement
2. The cost of training and experience of the Pilot and possibly Radar Officer
3. A tangible loss of capability for the duration scenario.

Now while I agree with some of your points, I do try to use a logic into the point penalties/values. More or less from Med Tsunami 2019...

C-2 Greyhound/SH-60 10 pts
F/A-18 25 points
FFL/PCM type 100 to 150 pts
E-2D 200 Pts
DDG/SS/SSK 200-250
CG/SA-22 400-500
SA-400 1500
CVN 2500

Now the primary target, each dock in Latika is worth 1,000 points not because the docks are so valuable militarily but they represent so much in Russian prestige in the Middle East. The airbase in Khmeinen is really there for the defense of Latika which is a large part of why Putin is in Syria (not the only reason but a major one). The points for the F/A-18s are also there to discourage players for using them in a battle of attrition against the SA-400s. Without a penalty for loosing aircraft (FA-18s & Tornadoes in this case) they can be used to soak off the SA-400's Growlers and then the task groups TLAMs can ravage the Russian position once the Russian SAM missiles run out. So the points also prevent a gamey tactic that no real commander would consider. Heck I've even done it and used the British Tornadoes to cause the Russians to launch and as soon as I detect launch took off on an evasion course to use up some of the Russian ADA defenses. Sometimes it works and sometimes it costs me aircraft and victory points.

Another "gamey tactic" is moving all of your ADA to guard your primary assets (Latika) at the expense of important tactical units (an airbase). Thus all of it is worth points but the primary target more so players are not tempted to leave one or the other uncovered. I ask in Syria which would Putin either have defended Khmeinen AFB or Latika Naval Base or both? These are the choices a designer must make.

Some points assigned are political/public relations considerations. You're some high level analyst in D.C. if an American Harpoon hit a Disney cruise liner in the cross fire what kind of political damage would that cause? What would our enemies do with that in the realm of world opinion (especially if there are fatalities!)? So maybe that cruise liner being hit is worth 1,000 points (while a CVN is worth 2,500), not for the military value of the liner but the political and PR cost of the action/mistake.

So there is a logic and hierarchy to the point structures I use. Now YOU may not agree with their decisions, but every designer is doing their best.

See my point, it's not just what unit X is worth in a sterile spreadsheet but what the designer is trying to get across and how they see the world. One other thing to consider, but designing a scenario represents weeks of spare time dedicated and everyone does their best to produce scenarios they believe are both entertaining and hopefully thought provoking.
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RE: Loss Aversion Among Scenario Designers

Post by rmunie0613 »

I think that in the modern political "realistic" world the scoring is very accurate. The American population would see large American casualties as a defeat, regardless of how many enemy casualties were inflicted. To me this is why the heavy penalties on "friendly losses" are scored, and for myself when playing through a scenario, I often tinker with the scoring in the editor if I think (for my own use) it was too "gracious" in that area.
In the end though, it is also meant as a game, and should be fun also.
I have not yet run into any scenarios that fail in that category.
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RE: Loss Aversion Among Scenario Designers

Post by vettim89 »

I think another reason that is lost here is that some scoring disparities are to allow for the superiority of the human player vs the AI. While the AI can be quite robust especially if it is programmed well, it still falls short of what a human can devise.

Imagine a Pro Team for some strange reason decided to take on the local high school/junior team. Yes, it would be a foregone conclusion that the game would end up being lopsided. That said, every point the lesser team scored against the pros would be a complete and utter embarrassment.

I think this also applies to scenarios where a major power is taking on a lesser power (Shamal in the original scenario pack comes to mind). Think of the score as not just a representation of what happened in the battle (i.e., did we win?) but also the after action appraisal by your superiors in regards to where your career is going as a result of your conduct in the battle. The tradition of establishing a "fall guy" when things go bad in the military is time honored and ubiquitous.

So you ran your ship up onto a unmarked sand bar? Faulty charts be damned! Somebody has got to take the blame for this!
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