There's been a lot of talk about No Fly Zones over Ukraine, and this scenario tries to address some of the challenges faced by NATO attempting to establish one. As I built the scenario, I began to realize just how big a task a No Fly Zone would be, so the scenario got pretty big.
The objective is for NATO to establish a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine, while not attacking forces within Russia and Belarus--not even SAMs, in an attempt to defend Ukraine while not escalating the conflict to out-of-control levels.
Playable side: NATO only. Ukraine is an ally, Russia starts out as unfriendly.
1. This scenario is big, with lots of units.
2. This scenario is likely to be very difficult.
3. There is no scoring. (at least, not yet) The objective is to establish and maintain a No-Fly Zone for 3 days, and see how well you can protect Ukraine from Russian attacks while minimizing NATO losses. NATO has lots of assets available for this task, but so do the Russians.
4. Some advice
- S-400s are nasty, and the Russians will use them against you. Flying high near the borders is suicide.
- 2 squadrons of EA-18 Growlers are available at Romanian airbases for jamming. How effective they'll be is anyone's guess.
- NATO has lots of planes with short legs: use them to defend the High Value assets (AEW, AWACS, Tankers). Use the long range fighters to patrol the No-Fly Zone.
- Don't expect the Russians to play fair. They won't.
BRIEFING
At the request of the Ukrainian government, NATO announced that a No-Fly-Zone over Ukraine would be implemented. In response the Russian government has denounced NATO, and has threatened to destroy any NATO forces that interfere with their "peacekeeping operations" in Ukraine. Furthermore they have threatened that NATO's warmongering might unleash the "full might of Russia, resulting in the annihilation of all of Russia's enemies."
ORDERS
1.0 Establish a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine. Any Russian or Belorussian military aircraft that violate Ukrainian Air Space are to be engaged and destroyed so long as they remain within the No-Fly Zone.
2.0 Defend High value assets (AEW and tanker aircraft) within NATO airspace. High value assets should not enter the No-Fly Zone.
3.0 Defend NATO territory from potential attacks from Kaliningrad or Western Belarus.
4.0 The Baltic States of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia will defend their own territory and airspace.
5.0 Be advised that friendly Ukrainian aircraft may be operating in the battle area.
RULES OF ENGAGEMENT
1.0 You are free to engage any Russian or Belorussian military aircraft that violate Ukrainian airspace.
2.0 You are not authorized to enter Russian or Belarussian airspace.
3.0 You are not authorized to engage any aircraft in Russian or Belarussian airspace.
4.0 You are not authorized to engage any ground targets, even if fired upon.
ASSETS
RAF Brize Norton (UK)
No. 10 Squadron (Airbus A.330-200 MRTT) (UK) (4)
RAF Mildenhall (UK)
351st Air Refueling Squadron (KC-135R Stratotanker) (USAF) (6)
No. 51 Squadron (RC-135W Rivet Joint) (UK) (1)
Ramstein Airbase (Germany)
960th Airborne Air Control Squadron (E-3C Sentry) (USAF) (3)
76th Air Refueling Squadron (KC-10A Extender) (USAF) (4)
Neuberg Airbase (Germany)
Taktishces Luftwaffengeschwader 74 (Eurofighter Typhoon) (Germany) (18)
22nd TAB / Malbork Air Base (Poland)
No. 322 Squadron (F-16AM Falcon MLU) (Netherlands) (12)
41st Aviation Squadron (MiG-29 Fulcrum A) (12)
31st Tactical Air Base (Poland)
3rd Aviation Squadron (F-16CJ Blk 52+ Falcon) (Poland) (12)
6th Aviation Squadron (F-16CJ Blk 52+ Falcon) (Poland) (12)
23rd TAB / Minsk Mazowiecki Air Base (Poland)
4e Escadre de Chasse (Rafale C) (France) (18)
1st Aviation Squadron (MiG-29 Fulcrum A) (Poland) (11)
32nd Tactical Air Base (Poland)
1re Escadrille (F-16AM Falcon MLU) (Belgium) (12)
10th Aviation Squadron (F-16CJ Blk 52+ Falcon) (Poland) (12)
No. 11 Squadron (Typhoon T.3) (UK) (18)
21st Tactical Air Force Base (Czechia)
492nd Fighter Squadron (F-15E Strike Eagle) (USAF) (18)
Silac Air Base (Slovakia)
1st Tactical Squadron (MiG-29) (Slovakia) (10)
Taktishces Luftwaffengeschwader 71 "Richthofen" (Eurofighter Typhoon) (Germany) (18)
Aviano NATO Base (Italy)
964th Airborne Air Control Squadron (E-3A Sentry) (USAF) (2)
NAS Sigonella (Italy)
966th Airborne Air Control Squadron (E-3G Sentry) (USAF) (2)
50th Air Refueling Squadron (KC-135R Stratotanker) (USAF) (6)
7th Reconnaissance Squadron (RQ-4B Global Hawk Blk 40 UAV) (USAF) (5)
NAS Souda Bay (Greece)
No. 51 Squadron (RC-135W Rivet Joint) (UK) (1)
RAF Akrotiri (Cyprus)
No. 56 Squadron (E-3D Sentry) (UK) (2)
Graf Ignatievo / 3rd Fighter AB (Bulgaria)
1st Fighter Squadron (MiG-29 Fulcrum A) (Bulgaria) (12)
RoAF 95th Air Base (Romania)
27th Fighter Squadron (F-22A Raptor) (USAF) (18)
493rd Fighter Squadron (F-15C Eagle) (USAF) (18)
VAQ-138 (EA-18 Growler) (USN) (12)
RoAF 71st Air Base (Romania)
95th Fighter Squadron (F-22A Raptor) (USAF) (18)
131st Fighter Squadron (F-15C Eagle) (USAF) (18)
VAQ-131 (EA-18 Growler) (USN) (12)
711th Combat Aviation Squadron (MiG-21 Fishbed Lancer C) (Romania) (12)
INTELLIGENCE
Russian Federation Air Forces continue to launch strikes all across Ukraine. Multiple S-400 Triumf SAM battalions are active across the border in Russia, Belarus, and the occupied territories in Crimea.
Intelligence estimates indicate that Russian threats of escalation to a direct attack upon NATO airspace or territory is unlikely. The use of nuclear weapons is not expected at this time.
ENEMY ASSETS
Estimated enemy air forces committed in theater are as follows:
Belbask/Sevastopol International Airport (Crimea)
1 Regiment Su-27
1 Regiment Su-30
1 Regiment Su-24
1 Regiment Su-25
Morozovsk Air Base
1 Regiment Su-34
1 Regiment Su-24
6950th Aviation Base (Engels-2)
1 Regiment Tu-95
Voronezh Malshevo
1 Regiment Su-34
1 Regiment Su-35
Kursk Volstochny
1 Regiment Su-30
Babyrusk Airbase (Belarus)
1 Regiment Su-30
1 Regiment Su-35
Ivano Severny
A-50
