Med-22 Submitted to CSP

[Gunner98]

OK, I'm going to dip my toe into current operations for a change.

This scenario (first of 4) focuses on the Mediterranean on 7 March 22, in this series I'll stick to the flanking areas Med, Norwegian Sea, Baltic and Pacific, leaving the fight over Ukraine alone for now. The premise is that NATO caves to the lunacy of imposing a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine and a war breaks out between Russia and NATO.

You are the Commander of JTF EASTMED (Joint Task Force Eastern Mediterranean) working directly for JFC Naples (Joint Forces Command). The key elements of your TF are CSG 8 (Carrier Strike Group) centered on the USS Harry S Truman, the Charles de Gaul CSG, the Italian Cavour CSG, supported by SNMG 2 (Standing NATO Maritime Group) and various, Greek, Turkish and British air elements. You will have 36 hours to sink the Russian Fleet elements in the Eastern Mediterranean and neutralize the Russian bases in Syria.

Playable by NATO only and with 3x CSG and supporting forces it is fairly big (but not to Northern Fury scale). As always I look forward to your comments and critiques.

B

Update loaded 3 Apr 22, plus a minor fix, Aug 22

[Stanley_The_Rolmate]

Hi, I just took a quick look at the scenario. My only suggestion would be to maybe include a few Syrian EW radars in Syria so the Russians aren't as vulnarable to attacks comming from the eastern side of the coastal mountain range, as all of their units are located to the west of them.

[Gunner98]

That makes sense, will do.

[AndrewJ]

Should it worry me that the French have nukes?

(And is the AIM-260 actually in service yet?)

[Gunner98]

Nah, it's just because their French They always have nukes...

[BDukes]

A fantastic scenario so far! My Tomahawk raid got wiped which is great Now need to see if that billion-dollar oops pays out in other ways.

Suggestions:

The Anka cirit loadouts are kind of broke I think. Asked for a fix next DB update which I think they did but think its firing alt is 60000 ft or something like that in this DB. Best to use the others. Bayraktar would be nice to have too. If only so that catchy song I've got in my head thanks to tik-tok makes more sense.

JATM isn't in service yet (Andrew may have mentioned this).

Can probably trim some of the Turkish and Greek radars out if you're looking to save cycles. It ran fine on my new computer.

I sunk something a bit early. Seemed like the right thing to do given the timing of everything. I'm guessing others will do the same

I'll post the butchers bill tomorrow. Have a big air raid to plot out tonight while staring at the ceiling!

Mike

[Gunner98]

Thanks Mike

JATM is supposed to reach IOC in early 22, interesting to see if it makes a difference. I'll yank it out.

I am trying to put something in each of the scenarios that make the player juggle the start time a bit.... do I stay or do I go...

The TLAM strike is a real balancing act, I played with all the Burkes to make sure a)you had something to help with the BMs, b) had something to help with AAD and c) didn't have an overwhelming TLAM strike. With 7 Burkes and a Tyco in the scenario, there are a lot of VLS tubes. Gonzalez is coming in from CONUS (one of the 4 reinforcing ships) and she is the only one with a Land Attack loadout but the question is to wait until the Blk IIIs are in range or pump out the Blk IVs and have a second wave. Also most of them have a few MMTs which might come in handy against the Slava's

Looking forward to your butchers bill..

[BDukes]

Alrighty then. Ended Average which all-in-all I deserved for a critical blunder. No impact on whale or tuna fish prices in this game either! Awesome scenario as always B. Really needed it this weekend!

My critical fails:

Didn't pay attention to the minimum launch altitude of JSOW so wasn't high enough to shoot and didn't realize until I hit SAM range. You can see from the Hornet kills I won the poopy prize for that.

Drone strikes were wasteful. All got bagged. Went low with terrain following. Likely need to attrite certain air defenses more.

My good moves (maybe ):

Did much better with long-range strike and jamming planning. Worked with a 200nm line where things need to go low and jamming starts.

Drained Ivan of SAMS using salvos of T-Hawk. Not sure if 1 massive salvo with all T-Hawks and Scalps might of been better. Need to try at one point.

Rolled tanker basing to Konya and moved their zone west of Cyprus. Safer places.


Suggestions:

End of the scenario I was able to drain them of SAMS. You can basically work under the assumption that everybody over-allocates so lots of cruise missile raids did ultimately pay off. Great power war they'd probably do this even if using 1/2 million dollar decoys. Maybe add a few mobile sites later on in the scenario as a spoil. Can pull them out of hides and garages. Or say the Syrians aren't fans of their territory being hit.

Used my subs to clear the way. I think I was largely successful because no subs encountered the ASuW helos were killed during other engagements (they are circumstantially in AAM range so draw long-range Amraam and Meteor shots or redirects). Might want to do something here (maybe SSN and only sub strike mission or something).

Ivan's punch was so-so. Akrotiri was hit a couple of times but nothing that gummed up the works. Perhaps target runways or something like that.

Newer Rafale models. These are older and newer exocets with better ranges are in service etc.

This is a reach, but maybe some US tankers on Crete.

The Bill..

SIDE: NATO
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
2x A/C Hangar (4x Medium Aircraft)
8x Anka+A UCAV
2x Anka-I ELINT Mod
2x Anka-S SATCOM
4x Bayraktar Akinci UCAV
2x E-7A Peace Eagle [Wedgetail]
1x EA-18G Growler
1x F 454 Psara [Meko 200HN]
6x F/A-18E Super Hornet
4x F/A-18E Super Hornet Blk III
4x F/A-18F Super Hornet Blk III
8x F-16CG Blk 40 Falcon
3x F-16CM Blk 40 Falcon [Peace Onyx III CCIP Upgr]
1x RQ-4D Phoenix UAV
1x S-70B-6 Aegean Hawk [HELRAS Mod]
2x SA-15b Gauntlet [9A331] TELAR [Cargo]
2x SA-17 Grizzly [9A310M1-2] TELAR [Cargo]
1x SA-17 Grizzly [9A39M1-2] LLV [Cargo]
1x U-2S
1x Voyager KC.3 [Airbus A.330-200 MRTT]


EXPENDITURES:
------------------
2x 27mm Mauser BK-27 Burst [30 rnds]
16x AGM-154A JSOW [145 x BLU-97/B Dual Purpose]
14x AGM-84K SLAMER-ATA
8x AGM-88B HARM
5x AGM-88C HARM
20x AGM-88E AARGM
20x AIM-120B AMRAAM
9x AIM-120C AMRAAM P3I.1
17x AIM-120D AMRAAM P3I.4
3x AIM-132A ASRAAM
8x AM.39 Exocet Blk II
1x AN/ALE-50 [RT-1646/ALE]
7x AN/ALE-55 FOTD
13x AN/SSQ-53A DIFAR
4x AN/SSQ-53D DIFAR
82x AN/SSQ-53E DIFAR
80x AN/SSQ-53F DIFAR
14x AN/SSQ-62A DICASS
9x AN/SSQ-62B DICASS
14x AN/SSQ-62C DICASS
66x AN/SSQ-62D DICASS
65x AN/SSQ-62E DICASS
48x AN/SSQ-77B VLAD
1x Ariel Mk2 FOTRD
12x Brimstone 2
12x Brite Cloud Active Expendable Decoy
7x CA/SSQ-523 CASS [AN/SSQ-50]
6x CA/SSQ-550 DIFAR [AN/SSQ-53A]
108x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
12x Generic Chaff Salvo [8x Cartridges]
1x Generic Flare Salvo [3x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
16x MdCN [Naval SCALP EG]
45x Meteor
4x Mk214 Sea Gnat Chaff [Seduction]
12x Mk48 Mod 7 ADCAP CBASS
8x MM.40 Exocet Blk III
20x RGM-109C Tomahawk Blk III TLAM-C
160x RGM-109E Tomahawk Blk IV TACTOM
48x RGM-109I Tomahawk Blk IV MMT [Multi-Mission]
8x RIM-174A ERAM SM-6 Blk IA
4x RIM-174A ERAM SM-6 Dual I
1x RUM-139B VLA [Mk46 Mod 5A(SW)]
17x SA-15b Gauntlet [9M331]
53x SA-17 Grizzly [9M317]
24x SBU-54 AASM/M [Hammer, Mk82, GPS + IIR]
9x SCALP EG
4x SOM-A
13x Spearfish Mod 1
8x SPICE 1000 GPS/EO [Mk83]
8x SPICE 2000 GPS/EO [Mk84]
1x Stingray Mod 1
4x Storm Shadow
23x TSM 8050B Active RO
23x TSM 8062 DIFAR
24x UGM-109E Tomahawk Blk IV TACTOM
28x UGM-109E Tomahawk Blk IV TACTOM



SIDE: Russia
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------
1x 850 Vice Admiral Paromov [Pr.03182]
2x A-50U Mainstay A
2x BPK Marshal Shaposhnikov Udaloy I [Pr.1155 Fregat]
1x Bunker (Sector Control Station)
2x Il-20M Coot A
5x Ka-27PL Helix A
2x Ka-29RLD Helix
4x MiG-29SMT Fulcrum C
4x MiG-31BM Foxhound
6x MiG-31K Foxhound
1x MRK Buyan Mod [Pr.21631 Buyan-M]
1x MT Natya I [Pr.266M]
1x PLA-971M Akula II [Shchuka-B]
1x Radar (Big Bird D [91N6])
1x Radar (Tall Rack [55Zh6-1 Nebo UYe])
1x RKR Marshal Ustinov [Pr.1164 Atlant, Ex-Slava]
1x RKR Varyag [Pr.1164 Atlant, Ex-Slava]
6x SA-12a Gladiator [9A83] TELAR [Cargo]
3x SA-12a Gladiator [9A84] LLV [Cargo]
3x SA-16 Gimlet [9K310 Igla-1] MANPADS [Cargo]
12x SA-21a/b Growler TEL [Cargo]
4x SA-22 Greyhound [Pantsir-SM ER] [Cargo]
1x SA-26 [50P6] TEL [Cargo]
1x SKR Admiral Grigorovich [Pr.1135.6M]
1x SKR Admiral Sergey Gorshkov [Pr.2235.0]
2x SSC-5 Stooge TEL [K-340P] [Cargo]
3x Structure (Pier [Extra Large, 200-500m])
2x Su-24M2 Fencer D
3x Su-27SM/SM3 Flanker B
4x Su-30SM Flanker G
6x Su-34 Fullback
4x Su-35S Flanker E
2x Tu-214R
3x Tu-22M-3M Backfire C
1x Vehicle (Band Stand [Monolit B]) [Cargo]
1x Vehicle (Grill Pan [9S32-1]) [Cargo]
1x VT Dubna [Kerch]
1x VTR Boris Chilikin [Pr.1559V]


EXPENDITURES:
------------------
42x 100mm/59 A-190 Frag
125x 30mm 2A38M Burst [50 rnds]
1x 30mm Gsh-30-1 Burst [30 rnds]
4x AA-11 Archer [R-73M]
6x AA-11 Archer [R-74M2]
49x AA-12 Adder B [R-77-1, RVV-SD]
7x AA-12 Adder C [R-77M]
20x AA-13 Arrow [R-37M, RVV-BD]
3x AK-130 130mm/54 Twin Frag Burst [2 rnds]
10x AK-230 30mm/65 Twin Burst [50 rnds]
10x AK-630M 30mm/65 Gatling Burst [400 rnds]
9x AK-630M 30mm/65 Twin Gatling Burst [800 rnds]
16x AS-17 Krypton C [Kh-31P, ARM]
6x AS-20 Kayak [Kh-35U Star]
2x Generic Acoustic Decoy
30x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
19x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
4x Generic Chaff Salvo [8x Cartridges]
3x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
6x Kh-47M2 Kinzhal [700kg HE Penetrator]
6x Kh-47M2 Kinzhal [700kg HE Penetrator] RV
1x MG-114 Berilly
4x Paket-NK [MTT ASW]
21x RGB-NM-1 [Passive Omni]
144x SA-12a Gladiator [9M83]
69x SA-21b Growler [40N6]
193x SA-22 Greyhound ER [57E6]
1x SA-24 Grinch [9M342]
288x SA-26 [9M96D]
24x SA-N-12 Grizzly [9M317]
16x SA-N-21d Growler [9M96D]
32x SA-N-24 Grinch [9M342]
40x SA-N-4b Gecko [9M33M3]
128x SA-N-6a Grumble [5R55RM]
60x SA-N-9 Gauntlet [9M330-2 Kinzhal]
8x SS-26 Stone [9M723 Iskander-M, 700kg HE Penetrator]
8x SS-26 Stone [9M723 Iskander-M, 700kg HE Penetrator] RV
8x SSC-7 [9M728 Iskander-K]
1x SS-N-27 Sizzler [91RT Kalibr, Paket-NK]
2x UGST [Fizik-1]



SIDE: Biologics
===========================================================

LOSSES:
-------------------------------


EXPENDITURES:
------------------

[Gunner98]

Thanks Mike

The problem with having a scenario that give time for a second strike is the Russians SAMs are drained or dead. Going to play with reload and relocate lua scripts.

Would like to put some torpedo nets around those Slava's if I could Will do some thinking on that one.

Thanks for the report, glad you liked it.

B

[AndrewJ]

SITUATION

NATO is in the process of implementing a no-fly zone in Ukraine in a few hours, and the expectation is that Russia will consider this a hostile act and respond with force. Here in the eastern Mediterranean, we have been directed to be ready to engage Russian forces, which are concentrated in the region of Syria. They’ve got their airbase at Latakia, their naval base at Tartus, and a pair of small but still potent surface groups based around old Slava-class cruisers, all under a robust SAM umbrella that reaches well out into the Mediterranean.

We’ve got plenty of ships – three carrier groups and a large surface group, plus some isolated individual vessels – but most of them are further west, in the region of Crete. Four SSNs and two SSKs are in the area to support us. We’ve also got forces at airbases at Akrotiri in Cyprus, right across from the Russians, a few in southern Turkey, and some as far off as Greece and Italy. The material advantage is strongly ours, but it remains to be seen if it is enough to crack the Russian defences if they go hostile.


THE PLAN

The three carrier groups, American, French, and Italian, will form up in chevron south of Crete, and head ESE in the general direction of Egypt at 15 kts. The surface group will fall back to take position inside the chevron, where it will collect the clumsy oilers from the carrier groups for protection. We’ve got a very exposed AOE coming out of Egypt, but fortunately there is a Burke in the area, and it is ordered to rendezvous with the AOE and escort it west towards the carriers. Other Burkes and frigates coming from Greece, Italy, and further west will make good speed (25 knots) to catch up with the carriers.



One little Greek missile boat, just off southern Crete, is a bit of a puzzle. It’s alone and very outclassed by the Russian ships and shore-based missiles in the area, and honestly, I should just run it away as fast as possible, but even then it would still be alone and unsupported. Instead, it is ordered to take a stationary position just east of Akrotiri, as close to the coast as possible. It has some decent short-ranged air defenses (RAM), and I hope it will be able to provide anti-PGM cover for the airbase.

The Russians reportedly have an SSK somewhere between Crete and Rhodes, so P-3s and one of my own Greek SSKs will patrol the area, and the DDG Porter will take a look as it passes through the area and heads south. There’s another SSK reportedly north of Cyprus, so an Italian SSK is assigned to hunt for that, but the area is too close to the Russian long-range SAMs, so no MPAs will be sent there. Two of my SSNs and the P-8s will be screening the carrier groups, where a Russian Akula is reportedly sniffing around. The other two SSNs, the Artful and the Indiana, are south of Cyprus, and they are ordered to proceed NE into the region between Cyprus and Syria. This is where the Russian heavy surface groups are operating, and possibly some SSKs, so they may have an exciting patrol.

Long-ranged surveillance aircraft (drones, AEW, ESM, etc.) are ordered to take up positions outside of Russian long-ranged SAM cover, which means they’ll be operating west of Cyprus or up in Turkey. A few are directed to make a close pass along the Syrian coast, but to get well out of the area before the No-Fly zone is implemented. Large planes based at Akrotiri (U-2s, tankers, RC-135s) are ordered to evacuate and rebase to Turkey or Italy. Fighters are to mostly stay grounded for the moment. The distant ones on the carriers are so far away they’ll have plenty of warning of any conceivable Russian interference, and those nearby will preserve their fuel (and stay out of the SAMs) pending developments.

[AndrewJ]

INITIAL OPERATIONS

As planes take off and reach their positions, we start to get a good picture of the Russian posture. The radar on the MQ-9 drones is superb, and the U-2 heading north along the Syrian coast is getting excellent pictures in the clear air. The Russian surface ships are all plainly revealed, as are dense concentrations of SAMs and missile batteries around Latakia, Tartus, and in between. Multiple SA-12s, SA-26s, and an extremely long ranged SA-21 in the middle. A couple of HARMs and a sprinkling of cluster bombs aren’t going to do the job here! The U-2 pilot flies off to Sigonella, well glad to be out of the area.

At first, the Russians have nothing in the air, but within a few hours they’ve got multiple aircraft up and operating. AEW and ASW helicopters are up over both of their surface groups, some fighters are up over the Syrian coast, and a Mainstay is patrolling back and forth over the mainland, keeping a sharp eye on all our activity.


NFZ IMPLEMENTATION

The warning order for the NFZ is received, and passed around the bridge in ominous silence. In the Italian carrier group, two of the F-35s (my only stealthy aircraft) take off and head east in radio silence. They will refuel SSE of Cyprus, and move to position themselves over Lebanon. Their eventual prey? The Mainstay.

As they fly east, the ASW helicopters below them are scurrying around in excitement. They’ve found a probable sub in the path of our surface group SNMG 2. A series of sonar dips and a well-placed passive buoy confirm that it is an SSN, uncomfortably close to our ships, and getting closer. One of the sensor operators calls out confirmation that the sonar signature matches the Akula that’s been sniffing around for several days now. It’s getting dangerously close – should the nearby groups try to evade? There’s been no order to engage, and the helicopter pilots can only loiter anxiously.

In the meantime, some of the Typhoons on Akrotiri start launching into the clear Mediterranean morning, keeping low, and heading towards the Russian surface groups.


WAR!

The war order comes shortly after that. Torpedoes drop on the Akula, and it’s gone within moments. The two Typhoons pop up and put long-ranged Meteor missiles into the AEW helicopters (and a few ASW ones too), depriving the surface groups of their long-ranged eyes. The furious naval SAM gunners reply immediately, but the planes are back below the radar horizon and running back to Cyprus before the missiles can reach them.

Meanwhile, the F-35s are dashing north over Lebanon, towards the Mainstay which is headed south towards them. They’re detected before they can get close enough (it’s hard to be stealthy when they can see you), and the Russian fighters turn south to intercept. The F-35s turn on their powerful jammers and press on, while the other four Typhoons head for the area on afterburner.

AMRAAMs launch, and they just manage to hit the Mainstay at long range, sending it plunging to the ground in flames, along with one or two of the closing fighters, before the F-35s turn and try to run. Unfortunately, running’s not a great option when the pursuing planes are high-speed MiG-31s, and it’s only the presence of the Typhoons which manages to rescue our fleeing planes. The ramjet-powered Meteor missiles manage to fend off the enemy, and the F-35s escape to their tanker with only a few gallons remaining. As they refuel, their ESM systems report that a second Mainstay has taken off, and despite all our efforts the Russians once more have radar cover of the area.


JOUSTING

Once the F-35s are safely out of the area, the Typhoons start trying to engage other Russian fighters, but the presence of the two Slavas patrolling the seas is a constant thorn in our side, and my planes are repeatedly forced out of good positions by shots from their long-ranged SAMs. The Turks send a few F-16s down from the north, but they are chased away by superior Russian fighters with longer-ranged missiles, and they don’t manage to accomplish anything. Still, despite all the back-and-forth, the Typhoons start accumulating good kills with their Meteor missiles, so the balance is in our favour.

The Russians decide they don’t want to tolerate this any more, and we start getting reports of cruise missiles launching from the vicinity of Latakia, headed in the general direction of Akrotiri. We can probably deal with these, but we’ve got nothing to handle the SRBMs that are part of the salvo. These come plunging in minutes later, neatly severing the runway access points, one, two, three, four. With that quick blow, Akrotiri is out of service. Fortunately, the only plane still on the ground there is a U-2 which wasn’t ready for flight yet. Unfortunately, all our remaining Meteor missiles are down there with it, and we can’t get at them! The Typhoons finish their engagements, killing some incoming Su-34s and helping the Cypriot SAMs shoot down the cruise missiles, but then they have to fly away to Turkey, where they will effectively be out of service.


NEXT WAVE

My distant carriers haven’t been idle, and the next flight of fighters arrives, with two more F-35s and four Rafales, all intent on killing another Mainstay. This goes more easily, since the MiG-31s have already been attrited by the earlier fighting, and the second Russian AWACS is destroyed from the south. For whatever reason, the Russians’ best long-ranged land-based SAMs (SA-21s and SA-26s) aren’t engaging, and my planes retire in good order.

As they go, around 0930Z, our AWACS starts reporting more MiG-31s taking off from Latakia, and this time they’re the K model, with extremely long-ranged anti-shipping ballistic missiles. One fires almost immediately, with the missile heading in the general direction of Akrotiri, or, more likely, the lone AOE and destroyer retiring from Egypt. The other planes keep heading west. Are they heading for the carriers?

Our Rafales and F-35s are immediately ordered to turn back and engage them, and they manage to kill three and damage another before they launch any more missiles. The big MiGs are defenceless when they’re hauling the heavy ASBMs, so it’s only the pernicious SAMs on the Slavas which prevent a complete slaughter of the entire flight.

Out to sea, the Burke escorting the AOE has its radars on, and the SAM operators are tensely staring at their screens, waiting for the incoming contact of the hypersonic RV. But nothing shows. Is it undetectable until too late? The tension mounts. Meanwhile, the crew of the little Greek frigate Psara, just off Akrotiri, are startled by a violent explosion in the water a mile to the north. None of them know what it was, although later analysis will show that the missile was apparently fired on an obsolete contact where the Psara had been spotted as she moved along the coast.


SUB ACTIVITY 1

At 10:25Z, sonar operators on the British SSN Astute report the sounds of a large ship contact, probably an oiler, to the north, between Cyprus and Syria. Turning in that direction, and proceeding at a calm 16 knot cruise with occasional pauses to listen, the Astute determines that it is on the tail of one of the Russian surface groups, directly in their baffles. Gradually closing, she gets to within about four to five miles of the group, and cautiously raises a periscope, confirming that she’s looking at the back of the Ustinov group, composed of a Slava, a Udaloy, a Gorshkov, and an oiler. With positions marked, she descends below the layer and engages with a salvo of six torpedoes, two at each warship.

The Spearfish torpedoes come punching up through the layer at 80 knots, rapidly closing on the enemy ships, who respond with a barrage of anti-torpedoes that knocks down half my spread. Nonetheless, each ship takes a hit, and those that don’t sink outright are too damaged to escape the subsequent follow-up shots. The Astute clears the area, and starts working her way further north, intending to turn east and patrol across the mouth of the gap between Cyprus and the mainland.


SUB ACTIVITY 2

As the Astute is finishing off her adventure, the Indiana reaches the end of her search track without finding anything, so she carefully raises a mast and asks for a situation update. The second enemy task group is now headed south in her general direction at a slow 5 knots, so the Indiana plots a course northward, intending to pass about 10 miles west of the enemy, and then turn and hook in behind them in their baffles.

However, after an hour she gets a good sonar contact on the leading destroyer and the trailing oiler, shortly after 1300Z, and they seem to be on course to pass only 8 miles away. This is actually well within range of the Mk48 torpedo, so the sub slows and waits for the ships to pass, hoping for a good sonar contact to firm up on all three. Meanwhile, a pair of Turkish F-16s have been trying to sneak in under the radar and knock down a an ASW helicopter which the task group has put up in the area, and after a few narrow scrapes they manage to shoot it down before finds the Indiana.

The good sonar contact never happens, so the Indiana resorts to the periscope once more, plotting all three enemy, and then descending below the layer to engage and sink each of them. This decisively eliminates the major naval SAM elements which have been interfering with my aircraft operations.


SUB ACTIVITY 3

Not content with her three kills, the Indiana now heads SE, where reports indicate that there are four more ships operating independently, including a modern frigate and corvette, plus a minesweeper and oiler. The frigate succumbs to a pair of torpedoes, and the corvette to another single shot, but that leaves the Indiana with only two left. Two ships left, two torps left, no problem? Well, there’s also the report of an SSK operating out of nearby Tartus, and it would be very embarrassing to be caught defenceless, so the Indiana reserves its last two weapons, and turns to head south.


SITUATION



It is now late afternoon, and the situation is looking reasonably well under control. Akrotiri is still shut, it is true, and most of my Typhoons are sitting in Turkey without munitions, but the major Russian surface elements have all been sunk, along with their SSN, and there has not been any enemy air activity for the last couple of hours. They have taken significant fighter losses, most of their MiG-31Ks are out of commission, and a few of their attack aircraft have been shot down. Importantly, they seem to have lost all their AEW capability, which will greatly reduce their situational awareness.

On the downside, there’s been no sign of their three SSKs, and intelligence suggests they still have a powerful strike force of Su-24s, Su-34s, and Tu-22s, if they can find something to use them against. Our combined task groups continue to advance eastwards through the southern Mediterranean, but I have no intention of bringing them into range of their shore-based missiles, and that standoff will automatically help guard me against any air attacks on my fleet. However, the situation may be quite different if they go for Incirlik, where my reaction time will be minimal, and my fighter strength is more limited.

Oddly, despite the brief duration of the conflict, I’m already having logistical problems. I don’t have enough AMRAAMs to re-arm my Italian F-35s! I’ve stripped missiles from the Harriers, but even so, one of the F-35s is now on a ferry loadout, to act as a long-range stealthy recce and OECM platform, and there are no more reloads for the others.


NEXT STEP

As dusk approaches, activity on our ships is picking up. Tomahawk operators are confirming targeting data, munitions handlers are finalizing aircraft loadouts, and planners are reviewing the Russian air defence OOB one more time. One of the largest SEAD/DEAD strikes ever seen is in preparation. Fortress Syria must fall!

[Gunner98]

Nicely done so far Andrew. I really need to boost the ASW defenses for the Ruskies.


B

[AndrewJ]

Now where the heck were those hiding?

[Gunner98]

[AndrewJ]

Operations continue…

ACTION AROUND CYPRUS

As dusk grows deeper, the action around Cyprus suddenly picks up at 1554Z, as two bogeys are detected lifting off from Latakia and heading WSW towards the south coast of Cyprus, in the general direction of Akrotiri. One of them immediately fires a pair of vampires in that direction, presumably at our missile boat Ritsos which is loitering there, and the two planes, now identified as Su-34s, continue to fly in at medium altitude.

A pair of F-18s scramble from the distant carrier and dash to meet them on afterburner, but it will be some time before they get there. In the meantime, Cypriot SAMs manage to knock down the missiles, but they can’t seem to hit the aircraft themselves. Two more anti-ship missiles get fired at our ship, but the Ritsos manages to knock them down at the last moment with its good short-range SAMs. The F-18s finally catch up with the retiring Su-34s and down them midway between Cyprus and Syria, just before they can escape into SAM cover, and then they turn for the tanker with almost no fuel remaining.

The captain of the Ritsos has been biding his time, and now that another set of Su-34s have been destroyed, he judges that it is safe to act. There are still two Russian ships out there near Tartus, and he has eight modern Exocets on board. He orders the helmsman to turn east and accelerate to flank speed, eager to commence hunting.

An hour or so later, action picks up on the other side of Cyprus. The submarine Pietro Venuti, which has been discretely patrolling the area between Cyprus and Turkey, picks up the quiet signature of another SS. It’s actually a fairly distant target, probably between 7 and 8 miles away, but that’s just within the no-escape range of the Venuti’s torpedoes, if they use the slow speed setting. Two shots are fired, and one of them barely manages to hit the fleeing Kilo, sending it to its final resting place on the sea-floor.


1730Z - STRIKES BEGIN

At 1730Z the order is given to begin strikes against the Syrian air-defence complex. The USS Gonzalez, far off in the west between Sardinia and Sicily, is the first to fire, launching a salvo of TACTOMs towards the east. She can’t use her TLAM-Cs yet, since they’re still well out of range, and no other ships will fire for at least an hour, until the cruise missiles catch up to the rest of the fleet. In the meantime, other long-endurance and slow-moving air assets gradually begin to launch, such as SLAM-carrying P-8s from Sigonalla, assorted tankers from Turkey, and various surveillance drones. One of the MQ-9Bs moves in towards the Syrian coast for a risky look at the parked aircraft there, spotting 7 parked attack planes and keeping just outside of SA-12 range before turning back, and a bunch of the small Anka drones start sneaking into Syria at low altitude, heading for the radar shadow of the mountain range east of Latakia.


1800Z – FELONY! (SECTION REDACTED. Highlight to read.)

At 1800Z four more planes suddenly take off from Latakia, and nearby drones manage to catch some of them on camera. They’re Su-57 Felons, Russia’s stealth fighter, and they’re spreading out west at high afterburner. They're headed towards our reconnaissance drones and, worst of all, our newly deploying tankers. My fighters in the area? Zero.

Immediate scramble orders go out to fighters on the carrier, but they won’t be able to get there for some time, which means our only hope of intercepting the Russians is the four F-16s at Incirlik. They start rolling as quickly as they can, but it will be a few minutes until they can get into the air. The closest ship, the Burke-class USS Porter located 80 miles west of Cyprus, turns east at flank speed and lights up its jammers, hoping to provide a little cover, but that’s a faint hope. Our tankers and drones flee westward at full military power, diving away from the enemy, but that’s not a lot against planes that can travel at 1000 kts.

Down on the water, the captain of the Ritsos realizes he’s been caught in the open south of Cyprus. If major fighter assets are launching, can the big anti-shipping planes be far behind? He’s just in range of the two Russian ships now, so he salvoes all his Exocet missiles, four at each, and turns to run for the coast and SAM cover.

The Su-57s start launching long-ranged air-to-air missiles, three west towards the fleeing tankers, and one south. South? Towards the Exocets! In fact, several of the Su-57s are turning about and trying to engage the sea-skimming missiles, giving my planes valuable time to scatter. This doesn’t save my closest tanker, which is shot down in flames just off Akrotiri, but the most distant ones manage to barely outdistance the missiles in the dense lower atmosphere, or avoid their flight path entirely once the enemy planes are pointed away and can no longer provide updates.

The F-16s get into the fight now, but are having enormous difficulty finding the enemy in the dark, when they can’t achieve reliable radar locks. One manages to get behind a lone Su-57 at close range, firing four missiles to achieve a kill, but attempts to find the other three fail, and our planes are driven away by a salvo of SA-21s that force them out of range, killing one. The Su-57s are already landing to reload (killing one of our nearby Turkish drones in the process). As for the Exocets, a number are shot down, but enough survive to hit and sink the oiler, and one final missile is closing on the minesweeper when it is shot down by shore-based SAMs.

Final tally? Loss of a tanker, an F-16, and a small attack drone, in exchange for one Su-57. Sank an AO, as planned, but was prevented from sinking an MCM.

(This was clearly a major blunder on my part. I had evaluated the risk of enemy fighters as low, since there had been numerous shootdowns earlier in the day, and, other than intermittent attack plane flights, there hadn’t been any fighter patrols since that time. Reconnaissance drones had seen no fighters on the ground, just attack planes, and I assumed the one hangar must contain the Tu-22s which were reportedly on base. Any fighters I missed could presumably be caught by the local F-16s before they could get far enough to do damage. So, my fighters were all saved for a surge, instead of having any CAP, and tankers were allowed to shortcut across Cyprus, instead of taking a longer safer route looping around north-west. An alternate tanker route and a flight of IRST-equipped fighters over Cyprus could have made a big difference here! If the Su-57s hadn’t been distracted by engaging the Exocets, the situation could have been much worse.)


STATUS

The big Russian SAMs are all definitely active now, and the enemy action has disrupted my fighter schedule, moving them up ahead of plan, and cost me some valuable refuelling capability. Hopefully their assets won’t recycle in time to interrupt my main attack, which is still over an hour and a half away from impact. We shall see.

[Gunner98]

Am glad that little surprise worked to an extent. At least to drive away any mid-game blues...

Thanks Andrew

[AndrewJ]

The Syrian adventure continues…


THE STRIKE - PLAN

We’re attempting a simultaneous strike against Latakia, Tartus, and their attendant air defences. This is a massive thorn-bush of high-grade SAMs. Coming in completely exposed over the sea would be a slaughter, so the general principle of the attack is to come in from the east, taking advantage of the radar shadow of the mountainous terrain that runs north-south, about 20 miles from the coast.

TLAM targeting operators have been carefully scrutinizing their maps, looking for a way into their targets, and they’ve found three potential routes that should exploit radar shadows to get their missiles close to their targets. There’s a very good route against the central SA-21, looping around the mountains and coming in from the ESE, which should be able to take the eastern-most SHORADS defender almost completely by surprise, and then slip up along a valley to hit the SA-21. The route into Tartus, also from the ESE, is decent, although the missiles will be spotted several miles before they hit. Latakia is more of a problem, and the best route actually seems to come over the rolling ground from the north, but even with that the defenders will have an uncomfortable amount of time to spot the incoming missiles. We’ll use MMTs here, with their slightly lower flight altitude than the standard TLAM, in the hope that this will give the defenders slightly less reaction time.



Jamming aircraft will be deployed to cover the final ingress routes of the TLAMs, and SEAD aircraft with HARMs, AARGMs, and JSOWs will be loitering to the north and east, ready to provide a supporting barrage once the TLAMs close in. Attack aircraft will deploy long range PGMs (SCALPs, SOMs, SLAMs) to arrive in conjunction with the TLAM attack, and finally, shorter-ranged weapons will bombard Latakia and Tartus to finish the destruction. Meanwhile, fighters will be loitering in case the Russian fighters sortie again.


THE STRIKE – ACTUAL

My planes swing into position in the radar shadow east of the targets without any opposition, and fortunately the Russian fighters don’t contest them. A few minutes later the TLAMs start to arrive, but they’re not in the perfect dense formation I had hoped. Variations in waypoint clicking, ship position, and launch timing coordination mean there are gaps in the line here and there, and the missiles are more spread out than I had wanted.

As predicted, the Russians spot the incoming missiles in Latakia first, and immediately open fire, prompting my SEAD planes to return fire, and smoke trails hurtle back and forth in all directions. The confusion is incredible. Flaming TLAM carcasses are falling across the Syrian landscape in dismaying numbers, and I don’t think any of the dozens of JSOWS, and maybe only one or two of the ARMs, ever make it to their targets.

There’s an unpleasant consequence of the SEAD fight. I’ve got numerous strike planes hiding in the radar shadow, and SEAD planes are diving down there too, safe from Russian observation. But suddenly, leftover SA-26s and SA-21s, with powerful active radar seekers, are streaming overhead after their initial targets have been shot down. The missiles don’t care that nobody on the coast knows my planes are there; they can see them just fine, and they start locking on at random and diving down to attack. Frantic radio calls and warnings fill the air as my pilots desperately dodge in all directions, and several drones and F-18s are shot down in the chaos, when they thought they were escaping to safety.

The battered TLAM stream is starting to make progress, hitting a few launchers in Latakia, doing better in the centre, and getting a few in Tartus, but the SA-12/21/26 batteries are large, and don’t get killed with a single hit. As my TLAM numbers dwindle, the Rafales and F-16s start to add their SBU-54s and SPICE guided bombs to the mix, and we accumulate a few more hits against the furious resistance.

Then, suddenly, the balance shifts. The big batteries have lost too many launchers and radars, and their ready SAMs are exhausted. The SA-22s do what they can with their cannons, which are deadly against passing TLAMs, but they can’t prevent the final destruction of the major SAMs. After that, it’s a matter of ‘cleanup’. Heavy PGMs finish the destruction of the docks at Tartus, and the runways and bunkers at Latakia, and the remaining SBU-54s work on the surviving SA-22s. Even the Harriers get into the action, dropping guided bombs on the Russian minesweeper.

At this point the Turkish Anka drones, with their guided rockets, make a useful contribution by coming in as high as they can, and plinking exposed aircraft and ground-based anti-shipping missiles and SRBMs around the bases. They’re well above AAA height, so they even manage to kill some SA-22s which seem to have run out of missiles.


WITHDRAWAL AND ONGOING OPERATIONS

The strike planes are returning to base now, minus those who were lost to active radar SAMs in central Syria. Landing operations should be complete within the hour.

To the best of our knowledge, all the planes at Latakia have been destroyed, and the runways are cratered, so the land-based air threat is greatly reduced. Most strike planes will stand down, and operations will switch to local CAP over our ships and bases, in case there is a surprise (drones? hidden missiles?) lurking somewhere in Syria.

There are still two known SSKs unaccounted for, plus whatever else the Russians may have lurking around, so we will continue to hunt for them as best we can. The USS Mitscher will join the Pipinos and the P-3s in the hunt for the sub off Crete. The P-8s and the forward SSNs will head for the Tartus area, looking for the SSK that is supposedly over there. With any luck we might add more to our score.

[AndrewJ]

ENDGAME

Attack planes stand down, CAPs spread out, and everyone assumes a calmer, although still watchful, posture. The clear night is uneventful, and those on flight duty can admire the Mediterranean starlight.

At 0150Z the SSK Pipinos gets an underwater contact right in the strait between Crete and Kasos, exactly where predicted by Intel. But it’s just a fish, alas, and the disappointed crew resume patrolling, taking the opportunity to charge their batteries back to capacity. More fish pop up here and there through the night, and it’s not until 0550Z the next day that the Mitscher’s powerful active sonar finds a hard underwater contact just north of the strait. The loitering P-3 moves in and confirms it’s another SS, before sinking it with a pair of Mk46s.

At 0650Z the P-8s pick up a cluster of three contacts on sonobuoys, about 40 miles south of Cyprus. Two are fish, swimming around shallowly and noisily, but one of them’s down deep, just under the layer, and that’s a little suspicious. A well-placed sonobuoy confirms it’s another Kilo, and a HAAWC follows it down to claim another kill.

With those two sinkings the intel guys claim we have accounted for all three of the SSKs which were known to be operating in the area. Further patrolling reveals no other suspicious contacts, until staff are called away to discuss the next phase of operations.


And that wraps it up! Thanks very much for another fine scenario.

[Gunner98]

Nice one Andrew, had me breathless there for a few minutes reading through the attack.

Great report as usual.

B

[AndrewJ]

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS

It’s an interesting lineup here. The Russians look very nasty, sheltering under their formidable SAM umbrella, but they are actually cut off and facing a massive superiority of aircraft, ships, sensors, and ordnance. Localized surprises and player blunders (my unprotected tankers, for instance…) may cause losses, but if the player doesn’t make crazy decisions (lets spread out, turn on our emitters, and charge into ASM range!) they can stand off and pound the enemy without risk to their major units. The challenge is whether it can be done at reasonable cost, while still retaining an effective capability afterwards.

The two Russian task groups are in a tough situation, since NATO surveillance aircraft will always know exactly where they are, NATO subs can be reliably vectored in to intercept them, and their ASW helicopters can be shot down by long-ranged AAMs. I think their ASW defence could be substantially improved by turning on their active sonars. The 40-mile hull and VDS sonars on the Udaloys would make it very difficult for subs to sneak in without being engaged by SS-N-27s (weapons free for sub-surface targets, of course, and engage opportunity = yes). The two groups are often covering each other’s blind spots in their offset routes, which is good.

It seemed that the SA-21, despite its extremely long range and area denial capability, wasn’t actually doing any area denial, and it mostly engaged in close-ranged cruise missile defence. While I initially tried staying out of range completely, I soon started wandering closer and closer to Syria without any consequences, in order to do reconnaissance, or just save time. Having the SA-21 periodically light up its radar and open fire at distant slow movers might be very useful. Emplacing an invisible spy or two in Cyprus, or up along the Turk/Syrian border, with a sat phone and a good set of NVG and optics could help with some discrete aircraft target ID at long range. Or you could just go weapons free, but that might result in long range shots wasted at fighters, which could never be hit.

The Russians could also benefit from some eyes, radar or otherwise, in the blind zone east of the mountains. Whether they have such a capability in reality, I do not know. Perhaps Syrian allies, as others have suggested, would provide this information? I suspect they would not have the ability to pass full targeting data to the SAM sites, though.


CRUISE MISSILES

So much of this scenario depends on the cruise missile barrage, and it was interesting to look at it in more detail.

At the end of the scenario, NATO had expended 224 TLAMs of various types, plus 10 SCALP/Storm Shadow and 12 SOM-A/Bs, for a total of 246 ‘long-range’ cruise missiles. Another 80 or so guided munitions and 48 ARMs were expended at air defence targets in the active phase of the SEAD strikes. That’s about 374 munitions, not counting those used only against infrastructure or in the cleanup phase. Russia managed to fire about 640 major SAMs during the strike, which is very roughly 1.7 per incoming munition. NATO still had 126 cruise missiles on ships and subs at the end. (By contrast, reports suggest the Russians had fired over 1200 missiles ‘of all stripes and sizes’ in the first 28 days of the Ukraine conflict.) LINK

I re-ran the strike with only the cruise missiles (no ARMs, etc.) to see if the other ordnance had actually made any difference to the results. The pure cruise missile strike destroyed all the major SAM systems at Tartus and at the SA-21, without any other assistance. (Although more SA-22s were left than before.) This suggests the ARMs and JSOWs had little significant effect there. Finding an undefended route in close to the target was the critical feature. At Latakia, however, where the TLAMs were observed further away, the cruise missiles alone damaged but did not destroy any of the major SAM systems. This is where the other munitions probably should have been concentrated.

I wonder of Command currently over-estimates the effectiveness of SAMs against low-level munitions like cruise missiles? Footage from Ukraine shows glimpses of Russian cruise missiles passing by, but they are frequently blocked from view after only a moment by nearby buildings and trees, even in relatively open farmland, and accounts suggest they are difficult targets. While Command models the effect of major terrain features blocking LOS, I wonder if micro-scale obstacles would change the situation further? Land cover type (as seen in the Land Cover layer in the View menu) does effect visibility and weapons, depending on the terrain. Is this applied as range reductions, local elevation changes, intermittent interruptions, or maybe something else?


MISSIONS

The “CAP” mission prosecution area only extends about 33 miles east of the Russian bases. The range of glide weapons such as JSOWs is 45 miles, so perhaps the zone could be extended further in that direction?

I’m not sure why, but the Su-24s and Su-27s on the “Cyprus Strike” mission never launched. I can manually command them to launch, and they do, so it’s not a runway issue. I tried turning off the Cyprus no-nav zone, or removing the SRBMs from the mission, but that didn’t make a difference. The planes just sit there, so I’m not sure what the trouble is.

“Felon Intercept” has a flight size of 4, and ‘enforce flight size’ is checked. The loss of a single plane means none of the others can fly again. Similarly, for the “Latakia Intercept” mission. I understand the desire for concentrated action, but at the moment this probably means the planes will fly one mission only.

“Orel Patrol” will not currently engage targets outside its prosecution zone. I was detected and in range several times, but was never engaged. Tests show that changing the WRA to ‘engage opportunity = yes’ will allow engagements using satellite contacts, etc., while the target is outside the prosecution zone. However, it will also allow engagement of ground targets, such as radars in Greece. If that is not wanted, then WCS Land Targets should be set to Hold for that unit/weapon type.

“SEAD” has a patrol zone which is partly inside the Cyprus no-nav zone.

Maybe move the patrol lines for the “Ustinov AEW” and “Varyag AEW” helicopters to the east side of the ships, to make it harder for the NATO planes to snipe the valuable AEW helicopters?

Perhaps the WRA for the “Ship Strike” mission would benefit from being adjusted so the MiG-31Ks don’t use their rare Khinzal ASBMs against tiny targets like the Ritsos?


EVENTS, TRIGGERS, ACTIONS

The “Russian Runway out of service” event is repeatable, so additional hits (or fire damage) after a runway has reached the 90% threshold will continue to score each time. Having one non-repeatable event for each separate runway would give the points only once each.

Sinking NATO subs triggers both the “NATO Ship Sunk” and “NATO Submarine Sunk” events. This is intentional (i.e., more points for the loss of a sub)?

The “NATO Ship Sunk” event is similarly meant to stack with all the class-specific “NATO XXX Sunk” events?

Maybe NATO should lose some points or Russia gain some for shutting the runway access points in Akrotiri? Although the SRBM strike damaged the runway and taxiway to an extent, it did not do so enough to trigger the points event. Nevertheless, the base was completely shut by hits on all four access points, so the operational effect was the same.

The “NFZ Violated” event sets NATO hostile to Russia, but still leaves Russia only unfriendly to NATO. Just checking this is what you had intended?


MISCELLANEOUS

Sigonella has no reloads for Mk54 HAAWCs or FOTDs for the P-8s. Although the FOTDs are optional weapons, the HAAWCs are not, and the use of a single one will immediately take a P-8 out of service since it will be unable to reload.

The Latakia airbase has plenty of AA-12-Bs, but it also needs some AA-12-Cs so the specialist aircraft can reload too. At the moment there are no reloads available.

The Anka+A drones do not have built-in laser designators for their guided rockets. (Database omission? Or are they really like that?) They need someone else to designate for them. In my case I was able to use a nearby F-16 with a designator pod, but it was definitely a surprise, and may catch other players too. Maybe a note about this in the briefing could help?

The P 71 HS Ritsos is not on the ship list in the side briefing.

I was about to complain that the Gepard currently has all its 650mm tubes full of SS-N-16 standoff ASW weapons, which removes its major anti-shipping punch, and you should swap the 650s to torpedoes instead, for a better chance to engage the nearby ships. But then a look in the database shows the latest Akula II doesn’t include the big 650mm wake homers any more! Did they get taken out of service? (Similarly for the Orel, but she does have them on board, so you could change what’s in the tubes.)

The Su-34s were only firing two AS-20s at a time at the Ritsos, presumably basing this on its database missile defence value of two. However, with 21 RAMs on board, the true defense value is much higher. You would need to adjust the WRA higher to have any hope of getting through (and to prevent the Su-34s from continuing to needlessly close on the target while their two missiles are inbound – I shot down several which were doing this). This could probably be extended to all the anti-shipping missiles. The NATO Burke-based air defences are so potent that there’s almost no hope of getting a few shots through.

The SA-12 batteries have no reloads. Nor do the SA-22s.


TYPOS & WHATNOT

Description

let’s role with it (roll)
with this premiss (premise)
the Russian’s also (Russians)

Briefing

You’re normal ‘day-job’ (Your)
operating of the north coast (off)
in a CM delivery role (BM??)
SS-26 Iskandar Bn (Iskander)



Anyway, this post is already far too long. Thanks again for the detailed scenario.