Allies – 7th December/21st December 1941
Fortunately for me, the PH strike goes poorly for the Japanese in this timeline, only sinking one BB and with mostly minor damage on the others, I have some hopes of being able to use the US surface fleet to inflict some setbacks to my opponent early on in the war.
Sadly however, the Prince of Wales and Repulse are both sunk at the other end of the Pacific. Not the end of the world as it can be hard to keep the Royal Navy supplied with sufficient oil early in the war anyway and mixed fleets can end up being really frustrating to run.

The retreat through Burma is proceeding according to plan and I’m hopeful of getting everything to the Dacca line in one piece. A small corps has been assigned to defend Madras from invasion which should hold against anything short of two armies trying to force the port. The Japanese light carrier fleet and surface battlegroup has been spotted at Port Blair and they’ll either be raiding the Indian Ocean convoys or supporting the Ceylon invasion.

Very importantly the Japanese 12th, 17th and 10th armies have all been identified. One at Hanoi, the other two in the Philippines, with the 25th tied up at Singapore for the next couple of turns, I can feel fairly secure in India and Australia at least until the Philippines campaign concludes. Tracking these free armies in the early turns is a big bonus for the Allies as it allows correct resource allocation and prediction of Japanese priorities. The two armies from Northern China have disappeared though so at least two large formations are available for invasion.

The Chinese front itself feels stable and I don’t think my opponent will overcommit to this theatre.

In the South Pacific, New Caledonia and Fiji are unthreatened yet and the Canberra and Swordfish are standing by to break any blockade attempts. The US surface fleet is beginning to build up in Tonga to potentially run supply missions to the island or launch a night attack on a understrength Japanese fleet.

Allied priorities in the early war are to trade space for time effectively without risking Carrier and Battleship assets that will be needed for 1943. Nothing larger than a CA will be committed to danger for any reason until land-based air can be in position to cover these moves. Although the Allies can only respond to Japanese moves, I intend to hold India at the Dacca line, with small corps defending Madras and Bombay (after Ceylon falls). The ZoC these provide really make naval invasions much harder for the Japanese to pull off successfully. In Australia, Ports from Rockhampton southwards are garrisoned, Perth is abandoned. Hopefully if it takes long enough to capture New Caledonia and Fiji, my opponent will be dissuaded from any more adventurous moves.