GD1938 Game 26

[ironduke1955]

[:)]1939 March I must have missed this the USA has broken isolation more than two years before the US historically entered the war (Not by breaking neutrality that could have lasted a lot longer but by being directly attacked), can you tell me the month this happened as I must not have been paying attention. As the odds as far as I understand it are fairly astronomical, I checked the messages for the month of March, it was not March, so the US must have broken isolation prior to March 1939[X(]

And yes I would think a non combatants VP points would not count towards victory, if they are not at war or in a war how can they be counted towards winning the war?

[cpdeyoung]

Yes, you missed it in March.

No, few people would call 45% "fairly astronomical".

The reason I think it means "allies" is because it says "allies".

[Bombur]

ORIGINAL: ironduke1955

Yes thanks Bombur I was going to volunteer for the latest game 1.25v Bombur's Mod but left it a bit late, if you need a backup player or slot becomes available then let me know.

There is still one place left, do you want to play France?

[ironduke1955]

Great sign me up France it is.

[ironduke1955]

45% Chance in March 1939 of breaking neutrality I had assumed that it started at 0% and increased by 1% each month so its almost 45% in March 1939 surely not any chance of a second opinion.

So breaking US neutrality is 45% in March 1939[:D]

So to win GD1938 you just need to get enough friends/Allies to pool there VP points, so in theory you could win the game with enough friends/Allies in two months without any actual fighting, outstanding !!

And the above is what you are doing the Friends of the Soviet Union are going to win the Second World by banding together not to fight but to show solidarity by forming a alliance. Ahhh that is so sweet if only more wargames were resolved like this[8|]

[ernieschwitz]

... Some would call that incentive for starting a war? You have heard of that concept I assume.

[Bombur]

ORIGINAL: ironduke1955

45% Chance in March 1939 of breaking neutrality I had assumed that it started at 0% and increased by 1% each month so its almost 45% in March 1939 surely not any chance of a second opinion.

So breaking US neutrality is 45% in March 1939[:D]

So to win GD1938 you just need to get enough friends/Allies to pool there VP points, so in theory you could win the game with enough friends/Allies in two months without any actual fighting, outstanding !!

And the above is what you are doing the Friends of the Soviet Union are going to win the Second World by banding together not to fight but to show solidarity by forming a alliance. Ahhh that is so sweet if only more wargames were resolved like this[8|]

You forget that the coalition leader must achieve 33% of overall points, it´s not so easy, war will always be necessary. The possibility to have a "peaceful" victory is, actually, a distortion caused by the house rules and the Axis decision to strike East first, while the allies hand is tied. That´s why I´m against house rules.

[Bombur]

Invitation sent to IronDuke

[ironduke1955]

Well you know me I am all about the fight, I will fight on but if I can avoid a two front war in 1939 then I will.

[ironduke1955]

Thanks Bombur I will pick it up.

[ironduke1955]

The Germans did not decide to attack east first the Soviet Union invaded Poland and then declared war on Germany. The Soviet Union attacked West first.

What Germany was doing was building their economy for a conventional game and would have looked at military options mid 1939.

The British and Soviet Plan was for the Soviets to Push into Poland have the Germans declare war on the Western Allies, to gain western Poland then for the Soviets to quickly make peace with the British and Declare war on Germany forcing the Germans to fight a two front war. No other plan makes sense as what the Soviet Union should have been doing was to get on good terms with the Germans as the Soviets did historically, attempting to avoid a war until the Soviet Army was ready, sometime in 1942 or that was Stalin's plan. No other explanation makes sense so we are talking about a gross miscalculation. The Soviets did contact me in jan/feb 1938 with what I took to be the opening of negotiations on the Division of Poland, march 1938 the Soviets have declared war on Poland insisting that the Germans must now fulfil a agreement to attack the western allies a agreement that was never made. The Soviets later explained that they had a rush of blood to the head and they knew no such agreement existed, they then after several months in Poland trying to defeat the Polish though German recon noted no great damage to either side during these months, declared War on Germany occupying a German city Konisgberg a small German city but with annexes a good source of production, plus Danzig was now French and was benefiting the French economy along with other Polish cities. I seem to have painted as the bad guy but I am playing the cards as dealt and I will continue to do so, but I will do it within the rules, with no gaming the mod or looking for loop holes in the diplomatic rules of the mod.

[ironduke1955]

"coalition leader must achieve 33%"

And again if this coalition simply swaps some cities around so that the the coalition leader has 33% of VP, not something I would do but I am sure fairly certain I know who would.

"That´s why I´m against house rules."

You know you have my 100% percent support in this let the players handle the diplomacy and and put the focus firmly on the war gaming.

As a matter of curiosity can you confirm the percentage of the role that broke US neutrality I can't believe it was as high as 45% march 1939

[Bombur]

It was 11%, did I do something wrong?

[cpdeyoung]

@Bombur,

Paste the following into Google.

If 9 then :

1/100+2/100+3/100+4/100+5/100+6/100+7/100+8/100+9/100

If it was 11 then the following.

1/100+2/100+3/100+4/100+5/100+6/100+7/100+8/100+9/100+10/100+11/100

No, you did nothing wrong.

Chuck

[ernieschwitz]

ORIGINAL: cpdeyoung

@Bombur,

Paste the following into Google.

If 9 then :

1/100+2/100+3/100+4/100+5/100+6/100+7/100+8/100+9/100

If it was 11 then the following.

1/100+2/100+3/100+4/100+5/100+6/100+7/100+8/100+9/100+10/100+11/100

No, you did nothing wrong.

Chuck

It is not exactly the equation that gives the most accurate result.

In reality, if it was 1% on turn 1 there is a 1% chance, so far so good. On turn 2, there is a 2% chance. Since we are looking at if the isolationism was broken in turn 1 or 2, then that would make it 2% og 99% (instead of 100%) +1%... In turn three. At turn 3 the chance would be 1% +2%*99+3%(of 100-1%-2%*99) etc.

in turn 11, that makes the chance that you had broken neutrality by then around : 61,9%

[cpdeyoung]

Interesting point.

Does the circumstance that the first successful role ends the tries change that at all?

Chuck

[ernieschwitz]

Nope.

It even smoothes out to the 100th role is 100%. It is a nice bell curve.

EDIT: What I meant to say in that last sentance was that it has a nice curve, that is the integral of a bell curve.

[cpdeyoung]

I yield to the master!

Great job on this mod Ernie. The care you put into it is inspiring.

Chuck

[ironduke1955]

Nope cpdeyoung gave the chances of breaking US neutrality at 45% on March 1939 that seemed clearly wrong. But 11% also seems wrong its way to generous for this early in the war.

[Bombur]

It´s 11% in this particular turn.