High Water Mark - 10/12/73 - AAR (no Crossroads)

[berto]

TURN 13

Presaging moves to come, Israeli artillery pounds the Syrian frontline southeast of Saasa town, scoring a couple of SP hits and forcing several retreats.

Then, at long last, the Crossroads presses forward. Israeli armour crosses The Leja and stages for attack (?) at the base of Saasa Ridge. Compare with previous screenshots, and you will see that most of the Israeli armoured force is now hidden (somewhere within the yellow ellipse, screenshot following).

Anticipating my artillery strikes, Crossroads is smart enough to scatter southward his vulnerable soft units, commanders mostly. They too are now hidden.

Syrian artillery then falls harmlessly on now empty hexes. A waste of perfectly good shells!

The situation at the middle of Turn 13, after Crossroads' moves, at the close of the Israeli Side A phase, and just after the Syrian artillery hits:



This has suddenly turned a bit interesting.

[berto]

When emailing his Turn 13 moves, Crossroad wrote this:

There's not much happening because you're in ... hiding.

Indeed I am. See what I had earlier posted here:

The Israeli Sho't Kal tanks are a formidable weapon. They pack a big punch out to an extended range.

The Syrian T-55As can go toe-to-toe with the Sho't Kals, but farther out they weaken fast. Beyond range 9, the T-55As maximum, it is no contest. Beyond range 9, the Sho't Kals are about as lethal as the T-55As are at close range. The T-55As will have to stay out of Israeli LOS, only exposing themselves at times and places of their own choosing.

As will the Syrian Saggers and RCLRs. The AT-3 Saggers have a good shot at killing enemy tanks, but that's it: With a Fire Cost of 60, each phase the Saggers get just one shot. Saggers are extremely vulnerable to enemy tank fire, of course.

So too the Syrian RCLRs. They can wallop the enemy tanks, but only up close, at ranges 1 through 3. The RCLRs are exceedingly weak defensively, easy pickings for the Sho't Kals. See the first phase losses for proof of that. If the RCLRs have any value, it will be for ambushes. It is suicidal for them to fight out in the open.

To win this battle, I will have to study the terrain closely, and position my forces carefully. Especially with Visibility at 20. It's time to go into hiding!

I think I might have an answer why Crossroads sat still for so long: He is hoping I will come out my defensive positions to attack him. Fat chance!

Given what I know about the enemy force (apart from any recent reinforcements I don't know about), and given how the battle for Tel Shams went, I would be impetuous to the point of foolishness to go over to the attack. I know I don't have sufficient force to retake anything. I also know that in a fight out in the open I will lose badly. No, the sensible thing to do is to lie in wait patiently. Let him take the battle to me. If Crossroads thinks by nudging his forces like that he will bait me to counterattack prematurely, nope, ain't gonna happen. [:'(]

[berto]

TURN 13

At hex 27,6 (green circle, following), I have a BRDM-2 w/AT-3C, a valuable tank killer. Is it also hidden? With that unit selected, I toggle ON the Visibility highlight (orange hex outlines):



Can it be seen? Yes. If it can see the two Israeli units down south (yellow circles, preceding), they can equally well see the BRDM-2. Out of fear that Crossroads will target that BRDM-2 for artillery strike, I will have to move it. (The nearby Israeli armour have no LOS to the BRDM-2.) I bring up some BRT-60PBs (turquoise circles) to scout the sightlines.

[berto]

TURN 13

It makes little sense for Crossroads to strike the center. Too many minefields, too much rough ground. If he is to advance, surely it will be southeast and east of Saasa town.

Anticipating a possible fight there, I shift my tanks eastward (green circles). In and around Saasa town, I have several high-powered RCLR AT killers. If it's a fight Crossroads wants, a fight he will have.

Around the northeast corner of the map, I thin out the transports, moving them along the highway to the west. On the outside chance that Crossroads fires his artillery indiscriminately in my rear areas, let's give him a single target per hex instead of several.

Question: Would it be too gamey just to exit all of those vulnerable transports etc. off map?

The situation at the conclusion of Turn 13, Side B Syrian phase:

[berto]

TURN 14

Crossroads had directed his artillery, unbeknownst to him, at what proved to be empty hexes (yellow circle, screenshot following). He thought I might be lying in wait there. But no, no entrenchments there, and not enough covering terrain.

The Israeli armour pushes forward. Gets bogged down in the rough terrain at the base of Saasa Ridge. Fires volleys at the Syrian forward infantry. Scores several SP kills.

Syrian artillery shells fall harmlessly to the south.

Crossroads upped his Total Points to 315 this phase, but remains well short of a Minor Victory. A drawn game for sure.

The situation at the middle of Turn 14, after the close of the Israeli Side A phase (and following the Syrian beginning-of-phase artillery fire):



That was 2D Zoom-In View, with Options > Counter Graphics > 3D. Here is the 3D Normal View:

[berto]

TURN 14

Okay. Crossroads has impudently thrown down the gauntlet. Do I accept the challenge?

At hex 30,6 I have a BRDM-2 w/AT-3C Maljutika C Tank Destroyer platoon. With that unit selected, let's see its Unit Handbook entry:



From its Range chart, you can see where it is rated at 70 firepower at 3 hexes range. (Because of the Sagger ATGM technology, its firepower is paradoxically less at one hex range, and much less at two hexes.) At 3 SPs, that unit packs quite the punch.

That BRMD-2 platoon has 100 APs to expend. At its current location, it has no LOS to any enemy tanks. With the Visibility highlight toggled ON, you can see where none of the orange hex highlights extends southward to encompass any of the opposing tanks. In order to fire at the Israelis, it will have to move into suitable position first.

In theory, that unit could move down one hex, at the cost of 9 APs. See where the yellow highlight indicates a cost of 9 APs to move into a Scrub hex. It could fire one shot, at the cost of 40 APs. If it has not been hit -- and possibly retreated, reduced, or even destroyed by enemy opfire at that point -- it could in theory get in a second shot. Then still have enough APs to retreat back up hill, out of enemy LOS to safety. 9+40+40+9 < 100. In theory.

This is one of the most lethal tank destroyers in my arsenal. Do I risk it, do I risk the opfire and possible destruction, by moving to the counterattack?

[berto]

TURN 14

Nothing ventured, nothing gained, right?

But it would be risky to the point of foolhardiness to rush the BRDM-2 forward. First I should try to draw and exhaust any enemy opfire.

There is another unit, a BTR-60PB APC platoon, at hex 30,6. It is expendable. Let's send it forward and see what happens.



Israeli tanks at hex 31,9 (turquoise circle, screenshot preceding) fire at the APCs, scoring a reduction, and forcing a retreat (to magenta circle).

Without pause, Israeli tanks at hex 29,10 (turquoise circle, screenshot following) fire at the LMG in hex 30,7, forcing a retreat (also to the magenta circle).



Ah, as suspected, as feared, the Israelis have saved APs for opfire. Good thing I didn't rush the BRDM-2 forward at first!

I now have two units at hex 29,7. They both have sufficient APs remaining for movement. I order the APCs back to the IP hex.



Israeli tanks at hex 29,10 (turquoise circle, preceding) fire at the APCs, eliminating them.

Thus far, this is not going well at all. I have lost two SPs to enemy opfire. Will Crossroads ever run out of available opfire?

Let's try moving that LMG back to the IP hex.



Interesting. No opfire!

Is it now safe to advance the BRDM-2 (green circle, preceding)?

Being extra cautious, I try moving another unit.



Again, no opfire!

By now, evidence suggests that Crossroads has exhausted his opfire. Let's make triply sure.



I shift an HMG platoon laterally westward, to the smoke hex 28,8 (screenshot preceding). Good that it is shrouded in smoke, good too that it's an IP hex. Enemy tanks at hexes 28,11 and 29,10 three times direct opfire at the HMGs. But thanks to the smoke, and the improved position, no harm: No Effect all three opfires.

If I were to be obsessive about this, I would try to advance the two other infantry units in the vicinity (yellow circles). But the near platoon is disrupted, so can't move closer to the enemy; and the far unit is too far away. I have no more decoys.

Note that none of the recent opfire has come from the two Israeli stacks nearest the map's edge.

Evidence suggests that, probably, Crossroads has shot his wad, has no more opfire nearby, opfire that might hit the BRDM-2 anyway. We shall see.

It's finally time to risk the BRDM-2 (green circle). Wish me luck!

[berto]

TURN 14

The Syrian BRDM-2 moves downhill to the IP hex, and ...



... Israeli tanks at hex 28,11 (turquoise circle, preceding) opfire at the approaching BRDM-2 and miss! (I think it was hex 28,11, not sure, it happened so fast.) No more opfire after that.

I am now free to take at least one shot!

[berto]

TURN 14

I target the third squad in that stack of ten Israeli tanks (yellow circle, following). Gotta love that 70/0 (hard/soft) attack factor!



The BRDM-2 (green circle) aims, fires, and ...



... scores a disruption only. Better luck next shot? If there is one.

Israeli armour at hex 27,12 (turquoise circle, following) opfire at the Syrian stack...



... and also score a disruption, but of the Armoured 71B infantry platoon in that stack (yellow circle, preceding), not the BRDM-2.

No more subsequent opfire. (You think?) The BRDM-2 is able to take another shot. This time, it targets the fourth squad in that same Israeli stack (yellow circle, following), and ...



... No Effect. Drat! After two shots, just one disruption result. For the BRDM-2, the opportunities are never better than this. But as it happens, this time, mainly wasted opportunities.

As expected, the BRDM-2 has sufficient APs remaining to subsequently retire back uphill, out of LOS of the enemy. With the Visibility highlight toggled ON, see where the BRDM-2 can no longer sight the Israeli tanks. If the BRDM-2 can't see them, likewise they too can't see the BRMD-2.



In the end, much ado about nothing. In this exchange, I gained little, lost more. Oh well, the fortunes of war. [:(]

[berto]

TURN 14

I send the 2nd Tank Company to reinforce the Syrian far left, along the eastern map edge.

I am not so bold, or foolish, to expose any more of my forces than I really have to. With just one more turn remaining in the scenario, I don't foresee Crossroads breaking for Saasa Ridge. But if he does, I am prepared to give him a warm welcome there.

The situation at the conclusion of Turn 14, Side B Syrian phase:

[berto]

TURN 15

Okay, this is it: the battle's (anti-)climax.

Israeli tanks pound the Syrian positions at Saasa Ridge, obliterating most of the Syrian infantry defending there (magenta circle, following). Pretty much what happened earlier in the battle down south at Tel Shams.

Several Israeli tanks enter the breach.

The situation at the middle of Turn 15, after the close of the Israeli Side A phase (and following the Syrian beginning-of-phase artillery fire; the Syrian artillery was once again feckless):



The forwardmost Israeli tanks (yellow circle) are in an exposed position. The BRDM-2s (green circle) will get another chance!

[berto]

TURN 15

If you refer to the Unit Handbook here, you will see where the BRDM-2's firepower maxes out at range 3. So they back up a hex, turn around, fire, and ... miss! Even at close range, those guys can't hit the broad side of a barn!

They fire a second time, and ...



... score a hit, and force a retreat. Finally! They hit the barn. Something to show for their efforts.

[berto]

TURN 15

And with that, the battle is pretty much over. I send a few more tanks eastward, but no forward advance. There are no targets within Syrian LOS. To sight the enemy is to expose oneself to the enemy. And get shot to pieces. No, the tactics remain the same: We won't go to them; let them come to us.

Except they won't. Not any more. This is the scenario's final turn. Time's up!

The situation at game's end:



A closer 3D look at Saasa town and vicinity:

[berto]

So how did we do? Here is the final Victory Dialog:



Although Crossroads shot up a bunch of Syrian infantry this final turn, offset somewhat by the loss of that one Israeli tank, it wasn't enough for a victory. In the end, as anticipated, the battle ends in a Draw.

Here is a breakdown of losses:



The Syrians destroyed a good many Israeli tanks. But look at those Syrian infantry losses! With no opposing infantry or other soft targets to grapple with (most of the Israeli infantry losses were from Syrian artillery), the Syrian infantry were mainly cannon fodder to the Israeli tanks in this scenario.

Another good game, even if it kind of fizzled out toward the end. Which is not much different from how it happened in Real Life.

The Israeli high water mark indeed. The Syrians have finally managed to stop them!

[Crossroads]

ORIGINAL: berto

Another good game, even if it kind of fizzled out toward the end. Which is not much different from how it happened in Real Life.

The Israeli high water mark indeed. The Syrians have finally managed to stop them!

Well played Berto [:)]

I have now read your side of the story too, and here's some quick comments to some questions and observations you made during the fight:

[*] I had played this once vs AI, but did not have a good memory of it apart from the fact that this PBEM battle is going to be fun and it is going to be tough [:)]

[*] Tel Shams was the key to this battle. My main plan was to encircle it completely, but the dogged Syrian defence together with difficult terrain and minefields made that plan futile.

[*] I overestimated the Syrian T-55s, and played it too much by the book, preserving plenty of Opportunity Fire to keep them at bay. All that passive action was not available from, err, active action.

[*] Saasa Ridge was always a secondary target, and indeed it was too little too late when finally advancing there on turn 10 forward.

[*] I now see your artillery was mostly off-board. No wonder my counter battery fire was so futile! I always watch the replays on 3D Zoom-out mode, to observe the shell trajectories, but those were then mostly mortars etc I was firing at. Chasing shadows, I was. Ha.

[*] No penalty in exiting units off map, but for the fact they are then gone from your available force pool as well. Some PBEM players have personal preferences to this, and may ask for them in the beginning of battle, but that is another story.

[*] Then, congratulations for a well executed plan on your side of things. Road to Damascus was always going to stay shut, wasn't it.

[*] And finally, kudos to Alan Arvold for this particular scenario. I do believe it does a great job depicting the Israeli tank heavy tactics in the beginning of Yom Kippur war, and how 1973 was never going to be another 1967, where Israeli tankers just cut through everything in front of them. The heavy tank losses here is a testatment to that, most of them scored by Syrian tank hunter teams and not tanks.

I hope it was as much fun to watch these DARs develop as it was playing it. Hopefully there was also ideas and tips how to play the game, Campaign Series is easy to get into, but there's an amazing depth there once playing it. Until next time [:)]

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