Analysis of Bruza scenariio

[henri51]

Although I have not played this scenario to the end, I have come to the conclusion that it may be impossible to win for the Germans.

The river from Warsaw to Modlin Fortress has no bridges except at Warsay and Modlin, and the road bringing supplies to Modlin from Warsaw is North of this river, which means that no German units can stay in supply North of this river. Therefore the Germans cannot block supplies between Warsaw and Modlin. Now the Polish forces are moving East as fast as they can, and the only way to prevent enough Polish units to reach their objective is to cut off their supply lines to slow them down and weaken them.

How about West of Modlin Fortress? The river continues West from the fortress, and the only bridge across after the fortress is at (forgot the name - next city West of the fortress along the river). This means that if the Poles control both the Fortress and that city, no German forces with their HQs South of the river can be in supply North of the river. And the only way to cut off the supplies from Warsaw of the retreating Polish forces is to cur the road North of this river connecting the Fortress and the city to the West. It is clear from the map that the Polish forces will be retreating along this Northern road North of the river (other roads are easy to block), and therefore the Germans have to cut this road to stop the retreating Poles.

Now there is only one German Corps that can go North of that river, and most of its units are far to the West. The only unit that has any chance of getting East of the city before the mass of Polish forces is the 35th division, and maybe the 3rd, but they will be more or less delayed by retreating Polish units long their path, and two German divisions are no match for the whole Polish army.

The Germans have 2 Panzer divisions in the SE, and both can reach Warsaw, but Warsaw is strongly defended and I don't think it can fall before the Poles get enough of their units East to win the scenario, but this may be the only chance. The Panzers can also reach the above-mentioned city along the river, but by the time they get there, most of the Polish forces will already have crossed to the East, so that seems useless.

So the only possible German winning strategy is to head East as fast as possible, but except for the panzers, the Polish troops in supply can move East just as fast, and they are already East of most of the German forces. And because of supply and distance considerations, very few of the German forces can strike where it is required(North of the river. So it looks like the Germans may be literally up the creek...

Comments?

Henri

[RocketMan]

I had no problems winning the Bzura scenario against the AI, but have never played it against a human player.

One potential problem I see with your analysis is that the Poles don't have excellent command and control, unlike the Germans do, so the Germans can generally outmaneuver them. And the Germans don't have to actually cut off the poles, all they have to do is take Wyszvogrod and Sochaczew, which closes off all roads west of Warsaw. This will slow the poles down by forcing them into having to cross the major river and swamps between those road choke points.

The German units on the west side of the map should just attack targets of opportunity and generally try to slow the Polish units down. The German units on the North side just need to take Wyszvogrodand and slow the Poles down. All German units on the south side need to take Sochaczew and then make a beeline towards Warshaw.

The Germans also need to kill Polish units and take VP cities to lower Polish moral and make it easier to knock back and kill the units around Warsaw.

[gwgardner]

I came to the conclusion that the Modlin Fortress is indeed the key for the Germans to cut off the Poles AND stay in supply. Although in my first AAR I did cut off the Poles, albeit leaving my panzers out of supply, but I had no chance to take the Modlin Fortress.

[Grymme]

Nice to see that my scenario is getting some play and analysis.

I think that the scenario has a high likelyhood of a draw ( the historical result). But there were both Polish and German wins in Human vs Human play during playtesting. The real challenge is to win as the poles by going on offensive, that i think is quite a challenge. Maybe something for a an experienced player against a newbie.

[henri51]

ORIGINAL: RocketMan

I had no problems winning the Bzura scenario against the AI, but have never played it against a human player.

Indeed I continued the scenario and had no trouble taking the two crossing points away from the Polish - I had underestimated the weakness of the Polish units. However against a human player, it could be a different story, if the Poles are determined to hold the Northern crossing point at Wysvogorod while crossing units across the river. Only one or perhaps two German divisions can reach the crossing froom the North before the mass of Polish units, and I could only take the crossing by a determined push from the South with my two Panzer units followed by other German units.

But the Poles got there first, and if they had set up a screen to the S and SE, they could have got a lot of units across before the German Panzers can get control of the crossing. It is difficult to know exactly how many Polish units need to get across the river to win (once across the river, the road to the fortress is essentially open), and the Poles are losing units through attrition near Warsaw thus increasing the number of points from the West required to win..

So it might be a tough row to hoe for the Germans against a competent Polish player...

Henri