"lets go home for Christmas" in 41 winter?

[jay102]

In current game mechanics, 41 winter is known to be brutal for Germans. This leads to a question, What actually do the Germans defend in 41 winter?

Just deny some manpower center to the SOV? The manpower center lost in 41 is about a quater of SOV' total. Is it wise to trade your whole high moral/experience divisions with it? Given SOV basically has endless manpower to burn.

Territory? The war is decided by the strength of the army of both sides Territory, gain or loss, is just a reflection of the strength.

So, why not order all your front line divisions turn around and march home for Christmas in when mud turn hits?

[LiquidSky]

Because the Russians are coming for dinner?

[jomni]

True.  I also thought of giving up chunks of land as Axis as you can't seem to possibly take the big cities by Winter.
But as trade off, you will need to take back more land from the Russians again in 1942, and the Russians will now be stronger.
 

[Turner]

I'd rather stay home all year '41 and build more strength than wear out the divisions then march home. Either of the two would be nuts, but I can see where you're coming from. Simply see the '41 campaign to be the stepping stone of the '42 campaing, just as the '42 campaign is the stepping stone of the '43 campaign. Makes sense, no?

The chances of delivering a truly decisive blow to win the war as axis in '41 are very slim imo. Perhaps if you PBEM and the other player makes a blunder. Against the AI you'd either have to play on easier settings or be able to see the opportunity precisely when and if it presents itself.

Soldiers who fought and died for hundreds of miles would break down and cry if you had them march home for christmas. Defend your gains, but not at too high a cost. Spend your manpower wisely.

[Arstavidios]

I'm trying that in my campaign against the AI
First I tried to hold my ground. Then I replayed the winter with sending the whole army home.
All in all by may I saved about 1 000 000 axis troops and was able to inflict an additional 1 500 000 casualties on the soviets. So that makes a big difference.
In 1942 the soviets seem  to get much less manpower then in 1941. 
 
basically I give up a lot of ground but the Axis Army is in much better shape. Also you can lure the soviet army in a wasteland were railways are not repaired while your forces are rested and in their home base, so when spring comes the soviets may find themselves in an exposed situation.
 
A human player may be more careful and keep the bulk of his army out of harm's way and get ready for the onslaught. So you may face a big soviet army in well dug in positions if the soviet is cautious. But it's the Blizzard that kills you, not the soviets during the winter. So you can get there with an intact army and have a lot of punch.
 
The Finns might be exposed but I don't think there is much risk there.

[ComradeP]

Arstavidios: you send most of the Axis units out of the blizzard zone as in: they start the blizzard in Poland/Romania? As you were withdrawing, how did you inflict an additional 1.5 million casualties on the Soviets by May 1942? You inflicted that many casualties in the couple of snow turns?

The main problem seems to be that disabled losses skyrocket with or without Soviet attacks due to the ground elements being damaged and at a 1% return rate, you're thus essentially being hit with higher frostbite losses than historical, although that does depend on how you organize/concentrate your defences.

I guess giving up ground in order to preserve forces is a good strategy, but it does depend on how much ground you give up.

Withdrawing also provides other benefits, aside from maintaining your own strength: the Soviets will have far fewer victories, thus far fewer Guards units and thus a much lower unit quality in 1942 than they would normally have.

[Arstavidios]

I decided to withdraw the whole Axis forces back to their borders, starting with mud turns. By the time the blizzard started most of the units were safe in Germany, Poland and Rumania, back to their starting positions behind the border. So they had a few turns to rest. Losses were small, with little attrition as there was no contact. Mainly a dozen of divisions cut off and destroyed due to partisans cutting the rail lines.
 
The AI followed my troops to the border. which they reached by the end of the Blizzard. In March I launched a general early spring offensive with a rested army that had suffered about 700 000 / 800 000 casualties in all.
 
March and April cost the soviet Army 1 500 000 men, with many non isolated frontline divisions surrendering during the mud when attacked Also I've concentrated my 12 panzer corps in the North and centre sector and the soviets took the full blow.  I suspect the soviet could not repair their rail lines during the Blizzard and their forces are too far away from their rail heads especially with the mud hitting. They also came walking through the blizzard without much supply, while my forces were resting in their barracks.
 
With the good weather coming in The soviets should continue suffer heavily as they are stuck in an area without rails while my forces are sitting on their rail heads.
 
I replayed the winter to experiment with various alternative german strategies.
 
I suspect a human soviet player would be more careful and would not send his whole forces into such a death trap.
 
The Germans give up all the ground they've taken but more or less cancel the effects of the first winter, And it looks like soviet manpower is far from unlimited

[Farfarer61]

Wow. I tried a much smaller version of this by just sending all armoured and motorized formations either home or to urban areas. I still lost huge territory and all cities east of Kharkov ( I had taken everthing short of Moscow and Stalingrad and cities east of that line). The russians recaptured the lot and Ibarely held Vyazma - Kharkov- Zaporozhe. So maybe I will try going whole hog and go home.
Did you need to get behind the borders or all the way into the European weather zone?

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Arstavidios
All in all by may I saved about 1 000 000 axis troops and was able to inflict an additional 1 500 000 casualties on the soviets. So that makes a big difference.
In 1942 the soviets seem  to get much less manpower then in 1941. 

From Nov 1st 1941 on, destroyed Soviet units do not get rebuilt for free: you need to spend APs. I don't know wonder whether AI has infinite APs at its disposal, or a very high amount. Perhaps that's hindering its ability to recover.

[gradenko2k]

I don't know wonder whether AI has infinite APs at its disposal

It does. You can see this in action very quickly in the Road to Leningrad scenario, where the Sov AI will man the Finnish Stop Line east of the Volkhov with a full array of Fortified Regions in a single turn. A Sov Human player with a 400% admin bonus can't even build half of those units.

[bwheatley]

ORIGINAL: Arstavidios

I decided to withdraw the whole Axis forces back to their borders, starting with mud turns. By the time the blizzard started most of the units were safe in Germany, Poland and Rumania, back to their starting positions behind the border. So they had a few turns to rest. Losses were small, with little attrition as there was no contact. Mainly a dozen of divisions cut off and destroyed due to partisans cutting the rail lines.

The AI followed my troops to the border. which they reached by the end of the Blizzard. In March I launched a general early spring offensive with a rested army that had suffered about 700 000 / 800 000 casualties in all.

March and April cost the soviet Army 1 500 000 men, with many non isolated frontline divisions surrendering during the mud when attacked Also I've concentrated my 12 panzer corps in the North and centre sector and the soviets took the full blow.  I suspect the soviet could not repair their rail lines during the Blizzard and their forces are too far away from their rail heads especially with the mud hitting. They also came walking through the blizzard without much supply, while my forces were resting in their barracks.

With the good weather coming in The soviets should continue suffer heavily as they are stuck in an area without rails while my forces are sitting on their rail heads.

I replayed the winter to experiment with various alternative german strategies.

I suspect a human soviet player would be more careful and would not send his whole forces into such a death trap.

The Germans give up all the ground they've taken but more or less cancel the effects of the first winter, And it looks like soviet manpower is far from unlimited

Arstavidios that sounds like a very interesting strategy. Let us know how the rest of your campaign turns out. I'd just worry about having to re-fight through horrible terrain again.

[ComradeP]

Giving up all the terrain you've captured would be problematic. You'd be fighting over the same terrain again, against a better prepared Soviet army. It can work against the AI it seems, but trying it against a human would probably be suicidal.

[bairdlander2]

Im on turn 5 in gc,at what turn should I start sending all my units back as Axis?

[Pford]

Arstavidios' strategy may work within the confines of computer ones and zeros. Or a robotic alternate universe. In reality, the retreating German formations would suffer a fatal hit to their 'global morale' and never get off the carpet again.

[Flaviusx]

This isn't gonna fly in a PBEM against a competent Soviet player.

[Pford]

Why not? It might work. One assumes the game doesn't aspire to simulate the demoralisation inherent in giving up previously conquered territory.

Arstavidios has performed an interesting stress test on the system, imo.

[LiquidSky]

Because if I was the Russians, I would dig in multiple lines on good terrain (The Dnepr) and wait until I have double (or triple) the size army of the Germans then roll over them into Europe. They have essentially given up a win, and are hoping to prevent me from winning by holding on to Germany.

[Flaviusx]

ORIGINAL: Pford

Why not? It might work. One assumes the game doesn't aspire to simulate the demoralisation inherent in giving up previously conquered territory.

Arstavidios has performed an interesting stress test on the system, imo.

I would be in Berlin a year ahead of schedule.

[Great_Ajax]

Mmm. All those extra manpower resources waiting to get conscripted and extra time and space to spend APs on properly fortified lines. Player would absolutely get murdered by a human opponent but might be fun to play against the AI.

Trey

[bwheatley]

ORIGINAL: bairdlander

Im on turn 5 in gc,at what turn should I start sending all my units back as Axis?

Turn 17 is the start of mud iirc.