Soviet Barbarossa

[Capitaine]

In some groundbreaking news, I recently was informed directly by perhaps the world's foremost WWII historian that it will shortly be established that the Soviets had definitively resolved to launch an attack on Germany on July 15th of 1941, and that the German Barbarossa was timed and intended as a preemptive strike against this plan.

Such a plan would be consistent with the forward Soviet deployment on the frontier, and the nearly exclusively attack posture/training of the Soviet formations. To say that the Soviets didn't expect a German attack would thus be accurate: They were expecting to start the conflict before Germany, and didn't consider their deployment from a defensive perspective.

I have no more to offer, but in my mind given my source this is essentially a certainty.

So I wonder what effect, if any, such a situation would have on War in the East 2?

[morvael]

WitE could use some what-if scenarios.

[Capitaine]

Might be a short-lived offensive. [;)]

[uw06670]

Just imagine if true and Germany had delayed their attack. Good chance Germany wins the war.

[Capitaine]

If the aggression were perceived to be on the Soviet's part I wonder if there would be any diplomatic consequences. Britain, already at war with GE, would still support USSR just as much. U.S. as only other real power might be less inclined to support Soviets with LL? Early? Maybe?

[56ajax]

I must admit I struggle with this, especially the 15th July date, 3 weeks after the start of Barbarossa. This would imply some visible preparation and deployment, noticeable a couple of months before. Obviously they were going to attack from the Ukraine, without any recon.

Then again the Russian s thought they were the best army in the world, and to say otherwise would label you as counter revolutionary and lead to the firing squad. Furthermore, training breaks equipment, especially aircraft, which leads to you being classified as a saboteur and here comes the firing squad again. Best leave aircraft, tanks, guns etc in the shed.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians did have a plan to attack Germany, but was it going to kick off on the 15th July. no.

[Stelteck]

Some science fiction / What if scenario like this (with different forces configuration at start) could be very interesting in the game.

In WITP AE there is some of them that are very good. (I especially love the "renforced japan for long war" one).

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: Capitaine
I recently was informed directly by perhaps the world's foremost WWII historian that it will shortly be established that the Soviets had definitively resolved to launch an attack on Germany on July 15th of 1941, and that the German Barbarossa was timed and intended as a preemptive strike against this plan.

I would be cautious with this - I have heard this statement many times and it usually traces back to a former Soviet spy who does a lecture by this very title. While he did have access to the files decades later and it is very well presented - I do not think there is any definitive proof or that any of the really top World War II historians have said so.

That said I have no doubt the Soviet Union would have invaded Germany if they thought they could win - as they had already done so with most of their other neighbours. I have no doubt that they made a lot of plans for it. Just as America and Britain had plans to go to war with each other. But the resolution perhaps could only be known by the mind of Stalin himself - and only mind readers can know that.

[No idea]

ORIGINAL: Capitaine

In some groundbreaking news, I recently was informed directly by perhaps the world's foremost WWII historian that it will shortly be established that the Soviets had definitively resolved to launch an attack on Germany on July 15th of 1941, and that the German Barbarossa was timed and intended as a preemptive strike against this plan.

Such a plan would be consistent with the forward Soviet deployment on the frontier, and the nearly exclusively attack posture/training of the Soviet formations. To say that the Soviets didn't expect a German attack would thus be accurate: They were expecting to start the conflict before Germany, and didn't consider their deployment from a defensive perspective.

I have no more to offer, but in my mind given my source this is essentially a certainty.

So I wonder what effect, if any, such a situation would have on War in the East 2?

Some questions

Can you say who is this historian?

I assume he will have imporant documents to back his words?

How is that, if the attacked was planned for 15 th July, the soviet army was in such disarray? (And I mean, not just logistically, but it was in the middle of a process of orgnizational change, with most tank corps still "in the works")

In short, why would Stalin want to launch an attck when Germany had no relevant enemies left (apart from the UK on its island) and it wasnt prepared? Stalin was not an utter idiot.

Unless overwhelming proof is presented, something I doubt a lot, I still think Stalin was "on the sidelines", waiting for a chance, not wanting to get into a life/death struggle all alone

[Capitaine]

ORIGINAL: No idea

ORIGINAL: Capitaine

In some groundbreaking news, I recently was informed directly by perhaps the world's foremost WWII historian that it will shortly be established that the Soviets had definitively resolved to launch an attack on Germany on July 15th of 1941, and that the German Barbarossa was timed and intended as a preemptive strike against this plan.

Such a plan would be consistent with the forward Soviet deployment on the frontier, and the nearly exclusively attack posture/training of the Soviet formations. To say that the Soviets didn't expect a German attack would thus be accurate: They were expecting to start the conflict before Germany, and didn't consider their deployment from a defensive perspective.

I have no more to offer, but in my mind given my source this is essentially a certainty.

So I wonder what effect, if any, such a situation would have on War in the East 2?

Some questions

Can you say who is this historian?

I assume he will have imporant documents to back his words?

How is that, if the attacked was planned for 15 th July, the soviet army was in such disarray? (And I mean, not just logistically, but it was in the middle of a process of orgnizational change, with most tank corps still "in the works")

In short, why would Stalin want to launch an attck when Germany had no relevant enemies left (apart from the UK on its island) and it wasnt prepared? Stalin was not an utter idiot.

Unless overwhelming proof is presented, something I doubt a lot, I still think Stalin was "on the sidelines", waiting for a chance, not wanting to get into a life/death struggle all alone

No, I won't identify the historian as it was a confidential communication and this matter was unsolicited and came up merely as a heads up. I also did not get the impression that this development was through his own work; only that he'd known about it before and that the definitive proof was forthcoming.

As to the credibility, this historian relies *solely* on primary source material; the best of all available. I trust *his* judgment on WWII matters more than I trust anyone else's on the planet. Bar NONE.

Beyond that, take it as you like. I throw this out there as a tip in the spirit it was communicated to me. I understand completely if you'd prefer to await the actual proffering of the evidence before forming an opinion, as that is only rational. My trust in my source, though, is very high. For me.

[Capitaine]

I will also aver that probably the primary importance of this information would be political rather than military, even though it would as discussed above probably explain some military decisions by the Soviets that otherwise aren't terribly explicable.

[Stelteck]

I also heard that poland tried to invade germany leading to the start of WW2 [:'(]

[Telemecus]

The Nazi justification was that Poland attacked first. They even staged an attack on a border radio station with Germans given Polish uniforms for the propaganda.

Poland did have one of the biggest armies of Europe and in the decade before very successfully attacked the Soviet Union. It is only in hindsight that we see it as one sided.

[No idea]

ORIGINAL: Capitaine

I will also aver that probably the primary importance of this information would be political rather than military, even though it would as discussed above probably explain some military decisions by the Soviets that otherwise aren't terribly explicable.

Even if I am sceptical, thank you for the info. I will wait unitl the historians work is released to give my opinion.

[chaos45]

I find this hard to believe, esp with the lack of motorization of the Soviet forces in the West in June. It would have taken incredible efforts to get the Soviet western forces fully mobile, not to mention the training and supply stockpiles they would need to conduct an offensive.

[Capitaine]

One thing to consider, though, is that if the shoe is placed on the other foot then it's very understandable why the Soviets, and Russia today, would not want this information released. Nor would any of the victorious Allies want it released. There were and are high national security reasons to cover this up. So no one can claim that had this been the plan, we'd surely have known about it before now. I seriously think not.

[chaos45]

I just think your wrong and I think whoever this noted historian is, is also wrong.

Soviet equipment readiness was very low, they lacked massive supply stockpiles, and many units were less than 20% authorized transport.

No Army preparing for an offensive in a month would even think they had a chance of success in such a dilapidated state. I could go on, but the general soviet military situation in Jun and even Jul without a German attack was/would have been horrible. Just driving to the polish border to attack would have cut their tank strength down by easily 25-50% because maintenance and spare parts were so lacking...not to mention fuel was even an issue for them at that point in the units.

Also I think Stalin's near catatonic state he fell into after he finally realized the Germans were indeed invading shows how ill prepared he was as the countries leader for the event. If he had truly been preparing to attack Germany in 1941 I dont think his reaction would have been such.

Maybe in 1942 or later the Soviet generals or stalin had some aspirations to attack Germany at an opportune time, but all evidence within the Soviet Army points to a complete lack of preparedness to conduct really any operations let alone an offensive.

[Telemecus]

You do have to distinguish the political readiness to go to war and the military. Italy was not ready for war in 1941 - but Mussolini wanted it anyway. Indeed he was worried he would enter too late for the victory parade.

If Germany was weak they would have attacked - like they did with so many others. Whatever the reality of Soviet readiness we now know this was not the estimation of Stalin who regularly ordered counter attacks from day one. And it is Stalin's estimation of their military forces the day before the invasion started that is the one we should use to evaluate the decision they would have made.

My criticism of the historian, and there is certainly one historian very famous for this thesis, is that they are evaluating a political decision. In a system like the Soviet Union polling public opinion, military readiness or even planning will not tell you if the Soviet Union was going to invade. Only Stalin could. So when a historian says they have categorical proof it is simply a category mistake.

[Capitaine]

I have no idea what the source of the information might be. Could it be significant German intelligence documents showing that this was forcing their hand? I have no idea. Maybe it could even be Soviet source material. I agree that we all have to await any word as to what it is. But I trust the instincts and word of my own source. So I'm counting on it to be true whatever it might be. I.e., I don't *expect* to be disappointed.

And BTW, none of our own opinions or beliefs matter one whit as to the truth of this. It will either be solid proof, or it will be more hearsay and secondary source material that isn't up to snuff. Either way it will either authenticate itself if as told, like all the other primary information my source is responsible for; or it won't.

[No idea]

ORIGINAL: Capitaine

One thing to consider, though, is that if the shoe is placed on the other foot then it's very understandable why the Soviets, and Russia today, would not want this information released. Nor would any of the victorious Allies want it released. There were and are high national security reasons to cover this up. So no one can claim that had this been the plan, we'd surely have known about it before now. I seriously think not.

Certainly Rusisia isnt interested in it be known. But that makes it even harder to see how did he get political documents that point an invasion 15 th June of 1941. Besides, with the soviet geenrals that fell into nazi hands in 1941. How is that they didnt tell the germas anything about that attack? At least Ulasov would have been happy to give that info away. Granted, he was just a mech corps general when Barbarossa began, but I think a mech corps general would have known 3 weeks in advance that an attack over Germany was coming. Plans and preparations have to be made beforehand.