EvK (STAVKA) vs. SparkleyTits (OKH)

[EwaldvonKleist]

I had a game before with exactly the same settings and started under the same version, and never felt under strong pressure. I like close games and need the tension to be fully motivated, so I did not suggest the +1 rule.

Edit: Thanks for editing HLYA. In the credits I forgot another thing I have to credit you for, which is drowning the Axis air force in Soviet fighters flying ground support.

[SparkleyTits]

Yes turn 5 was very close to a nice jugular hit but I unfortunately was not able to make a low morale unit rout throughout multiple battles as I was hoping so no pocket was acheived [:(]

I decided to go for a rather desperate compromise by filling my MOT up with fuel in hopes of it becoming a target that lessens any concentrated defence next turn or allowing it to seek opportunities if left alone

[EwaldvonKleist]

Turn 6

After Axis moves
Axis forces catch up in the North, the retreat left the Panzers without infantry support or a turn. The layered defense set up last turn accomplished its tast, the Axis forces are not adjacent to the Luga, allowing reinforcements to fortify it.
In the center, Axis mobile forces remain mostly inactive for lack of fuel. Here the logistics nerf of 1.11.01 plays into the Soviet player's hands, as under older versions, the Axis side could have done multiple HQ BUs and support operations way deeper than now. Still, as house rules allow use of Army HQ stocks, a deep raid must always be expected.
In the South, most Axis mobile forces commit to a raid on Charkov, which still has all heavy and armaments industry. I had offered it as a sacrify last turn because I am not worried about industry unless numbers fall really low, but any Axis mobile forces attempting to raid it will be far from supply. The forces participating in the industry are now beyond supply range and will not receive much T6-T8 and partially T9.
If one defends the South, I consider it to be better to defend "South to North", making the Axis forces turn North. Supply there is worse and defending against an attack approaching North of Dnepropetrovsk is easier than one coming along South of Zaporoshje, for the terrain is more favourable with rivers, swamps and light woods. At the same time, the position is not at threat from being outflanked from the AGC, and if AGS tries to outflank it taking the Northern route (as partially happened here), logistics are difficult.


After Soviet moves
The cavalry division evacuating over the Baltic Sea is hit by Finnish air interdiction. Units loaded on ships are always especially vulnerable to interdiction, as such losses are high. The poor horses.
Counterattacks where possible to farm morale and guards.

[EwaldvonKleist]

Turn 7

After Axis moves
Axis forces push towards the Luga and gain a bridgehead. Angry with myself for forgetting to assign units to the same HQ here, and also for not setting reserves in order to help digging. From retro-perspective, the division between digging and reserve placement was slightly off, should have given a bit more weight towards reserves throughout the game. Something to improve for the future. S-T has done well with grinding in the North, the Soviet side constantly struggled fortifying new positions quicker than the old ones are taken out.
In the center, Axis forces rush Tula, which is full of industry. Although I did not expect an attack until one turn later, Tula being not guarded was no coincidence or oversight. Industry levels are still above what is needed even after writing off ZOC locked cities.


After Soviet moves
The bridgehead in the North is sealed off by some of the strongest Soviet units on map. The motorised units spent the last turns resting and have sucked up most AFV replacements available to the Red Army, which are channelled to high morale units by refit settings. A problem in this game has been the lack of the usual 1-3 50-54 morale motorised/tank divisions, so CV concentration is not as high as desirable.
Fort levels along the luga are not yet lvl 2, but construction value of the units there sufficient to increase the value considerable during the logistics phase, for they are supported by plenty of sappers and RR construction brigades, and Soviet civilians help as well.

[EwaldvonKleist]

Concluding remarks
OKH decides to resign after during T8, as such the game ends here and concluding comments will be given.

Support unit creation
The only support units built to this point are sapper regiments. They are very good units, because
-as infantry, they excel in every terrain, while AFV get a malus in dense terrain
-for early war support units, they have good CV
-they are cheap in terms of build cost compared to artillery, lowering arm needs (that assumes the key stat for this is build cost, not ammo use), and only slightly more expensive than standard infantry squads
-they help digging
-they are able to reduce enemy fortifications, a straightforward way to reduce enemy CV
-they can later be attached to corps formations
-they seem slightly better amred than standard infantry squad=better investment of manpower

As such, 24 were created when the Soviet side gets the influx of extra AP for the arrival of a new front in T4, with more following to use excess AP.
They are left in frozen Military District HQs until they have grown to their national morale level of 50, which takes 3-5 turns. From there, they can be transferred for free to other HQs when they are ready.

Losses
The strategy of running away has preserved the strength of the Red Army to that point, with losses being low for that turn (less than 10 divisions lost to pockets after T1) with the OOB approaching 4 million men.*

*when comparing games from before 1.11.01 and after, keep in mind that the Soviet OOB on T1 declined by 400-500k men due to scenario changes, while the artillery number increased by a few 1000 guns.

Game balance
Lately, there has been much debate regarding balance as of 1.11.01 and 1.11.03. I have retired from that debate, but as a comment on it has been promised in the beginning of the AAR, here it is:
I have found this game to be fun and balanced. In T8, the game can go to every direction of course, but extrapolating from AARs, I believe the Soviet side has a good chance holding at least one of the two major objectives Leningrad and Moscow and, independent of this, Rostov, while maintaining a strong army. The Air Force, especially the tac air arm, was developing very well, which gives the Soviet Union a fair chance of hitting back during the blizzard and to begin the never ending attrition campaign against the German manpower.

Note I measure game balance based on the old VC290 VPs campaign, especially if and when the Soviets will capture Berlin. If you base your opinion on the accountant-scenario bitter end, results can differ. In my reasoning I also assume that in most AARs one can use for reference for games going to 1942 onwards, the Soviet player does not use one or more thing that would favour him (I can comment on this if there is interest).

One can throw in that this particular game is not representative or that one side did not use its full potential.
Points that imply the game shows the Axis weaker than they are:
-Axis opening was good, but compared to the best in this regard I have seen so far, it pockets 32 command points less T1 and T2 from a quick counting assuming the Soviet player evacuates everything not pocketed or locked T1
-I think S-T prefers efficiency over maximum result in terms of micromanagement
-one can debate if the deep industry raids were worth it-opinions will differ here I guess
-the Axis side was allowed to use the infantry army HQ stocks, I do not know if it did so, but in any case, resources to prepare for this had to be spent by the Soviets.
-the play can be usually improved by investing more time in a turn, with diminishing return of course


Points that imply the game shows the Soviets weaker than the are:
-the Axis player has a 2:1 or 3:1 advantage in multiplayer experience for the scenario in question here (me as Soviets, S-T as Axis)
-there is micromanagement/optimisation potential I am aware off, but did not use due to laziness and/or time pressure. Examples are air transfer of aircraft even for small distances, very detailed tracking of Axis mobile forces by individual unit name or movement point/fuel estimations for enemy mobile formations, relying to gut feeling instead
-I did not use iterative unit placement, meaning that the defence is set-up on a planning map and then, in imagination, an enemy attack is simulated to iron out possible weak spots. I consider this to be a useful, but also very exhausting and time demanding one. I was not able to summon up the determination for this yet
-more general, play can be improved by investing extra time an thought
-I typically have a high mistake rate. In school, it was common that people to whom I explained physics/math/chemistry stuff before the exam got better marks, because I copied numbers wrong from the task sheet. It an inherent weakness of my thinking and leads to high mistake rate in WitE as well, even though I in theory know better. Someone more structured and reliable in his thinking should be able to squeeze out more

A reasonable doubt remains, for the possibilities for strategies in this game is sheer endless, but from the points above, I do not think that this one is an outlier.

Note that the above comments are under the impresssion of 1.11.01 scenario data, but most turns were under 1.11.03.

If the major issue is the over-the-top Axis opening, it can be easily cured by a house rule.
I repeat my comment from elsewhere that a small Soviet buff is in order, but it has to be a careful one.

[SparkleyTits]

I have not been making sappers recently as they change to battalions later on now so been playing with other SU and AP usage instead

[SparkleyTits]

I used 2 infantry armies for their fuel stocks

[EwaldvonKleist]

True, sapper spam only possible because we started with 1.11.01 scenario data.

And thanks for the Information!

[MarauderPL]

SparkleyT, could you elaborate on what made you surrender? I feel like a total noob not seeing why the Germans have lost this game. Both Leningrad and Moscow are within your grasp, its only turn 7 that we are seeing. Its surely not going to be easy, its EvK after all, but seemingly within the realm of possibility. Of course, it was your decision and I respect it, just wanted to know your train of thought and/or criteria for surrender.

[SparkleyTits]

All very valid points Marauder

We ended the game a little while ago now as I was having some issues with WitE itself so I had to recoup and regroup unfortunately
I do actually heavily regret ending the game instead of simply taking a break as I find myself having reoccuring thoughts of "I would of liked to take it back up now"
It would of been a very intense winter followed by an nail biting 42 both of which I enjoy but hey ho it's too late now and I can't take it back unfortunately

Apologies again to EvK for my poor sport

[beender]

ORIGINAL: SparkleyTits

All very valid points Marauder

We ended the game a little while ago now as I was having some issues with WitE itself so I had to recoup and regroup unfortunately
I do actually heavily regret ending the game instead of simply taking a break as I find myself having reoccuring thoughts of "I would of liked to take it back up now"
It would of been a very intense winter followed by an nail biting 42 both of which I enjoy but hey ho it's too late now and I can't take it back unfortunately

Apologies again to EvK for my poor sport

If only you had not clicked that button...

Or buttons[:D]

[SparkleyTits]

I know right I'm as levelheaded as a drunken sailor