Pelton (GHC) vs chaos45 T-131 Russian Victory

[Peltonx]

Turns Left: 130 Hexes to Berlin: 90 Mud turns: 30 Ratio: -10
Turn 80 GHC Armaments: 5,000 +0,000 Manpower: 74,000 -6,000 VP: 226

Armament Pts. Destroyed = 51
Heavy Industry Destroyed = 19
Factories: T-34 -60 Vehicles -25 SU2-12
Russian Units Destroyed after November 1st 1941
Corp: 7 ()
Divisions: 88 ()
Brigades: 44 ()
AP total: 1310

Stavka OOB: 7,584,000 +125,000
GHC OOB: 3,888,000 +26,000

Tempo remains low with Stavka taking 4-6 hexes winning 50% of the time and GHC taking back a few. No real change in lines.

[Peltonx]

Turns Left: 125 Hexes to Berlin: 91 Mud turns: 30 Ratio: -10
Turn 85 GHC Armaments: 5,000 +0,000 Manpower: 30,000 VP: 226

Armament Pts. Destroyed = 51
Heavy Industry Destroyed = 19
Factories: T-34 -60 Vehicles -25 SU2-12
Russian Units Destroyed after November 1st 1941
Corp: 7 ()
Divisions: 88 ()
Brigades: 44 ()
AP total: 1310

Stavka OOB: 7,800,000 +216,000
GHC OOB: 3,993,000 +105,000



Tempo remains low at 30ish attacks per turn with 10 to 15 being against the Italian 8th Army. The lines are holding from Finland to the Don as expected. In 5 turns Stavka has managed to take 5 or 6 hexes, which is far to slow to get past 30 miles of forts. 9 more divisions have been sent to this area with 3 more LW divisions to arrive at the front next turn. Most hexes are 2x stacked with a 2nd row of regiments and a 3rd row of forts. 1 Panzer Corp is held in reserve in this area encase a counter attack is needed.

[Peltonx]

South of the Don a little screen of Italians are slowly with drawing north with several Panzer Corp in reserve. 6 new infantry divisions withen the next 5 turns will be sent to the southern front. The Southern front is 63 hexes long, but can be shortened to 31 hexes front line CV will be much higher and the front 30 miles thick by summer + rivers will make defending the shorter front that much easyer.

[chaos45]

Your generals had some amazing initiative rolls that turn lol- think you got 1-2 reactions on every single attack even when i tried to bleed down your reactions with soaking attacks. Summer 1943 is going to be interesting as lack of trucks and weather is limiting my movement alot. Think my assaults are bleeding us both pretty well your OOB has grown from reinforcing divisions while mine has more or less stagnated. So far exchange rate seems to be about 2:1 in infantry and 10:1 in AFVs. Not sure I can maintain the 10:1 in AFVs forever lol.

If the casualty numbers are right I should be causing more losses than your replacing every turn, but im barely replacing more than im losing every turn lol.....think .05 with just slightly higher casualties may actually get it to the point we both lose more than we replace each turn or some turns at least.

Also shortening the line works for both sides [8D]

[Peltonx]

This is a simple game of math

1. morale is of the Battle Field.
2. C & C is a close 2nd.

The line will shorten and so will the frontage and the RR.

The 300 held off the Horde from Mordor for several days.

You know your history my friend a shorter frontage as always helps the quality side not the mob side.

So yes I will enjoy the shorter frontage when I wish it to be shorter, not when you wish it to be shorter.

There are no rivers when they are frozen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTukSakeqr4

[chaos45]

Oh I know, why do you think ive been mercilessly pushing my hordes of Mordor against your lines by Rostov and stalingrad....2:1 math I likes, 10:1 not so much but as I get more guard rifle corps I should be able to use more bodies than vehicles lol.

[Peltonx]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DiSQ36zfWk

[Peltonx]

Turns Left: 120 Hexes to Berlin: 91 Mud turns: 30 Ratio: +1
Turn 90 GHC Armaments: 40,000 +35,000 Manpower: 48,000 +18,000 VP: 226

Armament Pts. Destroyed = 51
Heavy Industry Destroyed = 19
Factories: T-34 -60 Vehicles -25 SU2-12
Russian Units Destroyed after November 1st 1941
Corp: 7 ()
Divisions: 88 ()
Brigades: 44 ()
AP total: 1310

Stavka OOB: 7,755,000 -45,000
GHC OOB: 3,993,000 -13,000

Hexes lost north of Tula: 8
Stavka---Won 133---Lost 96---60% About 40 attacks per turn.

Armaments and manpower are up some over last 5 turns.

[Peltonx]

Turns Left: 115 Hexes to Berlin: 91 Mud turns: 30 Ratio: +6
Turn 95 GHC Armaments: 22,000 -18,000 Manpower: 15,000 -30,000 VP: 226

Armament Pts. Destroyed = 51
Heavy Industry Destroyed = 19
Factories: T-34 -60 Vehicles -25 SU2-12
Russian Units Destroyed after November 1st 1941
Corp: 7 ()
Divisions: 88 ()
Brigades: 44 ()
AP total: 1310

Stavka OOB: 7,850,000 +95,000
GHC OOB: 3,980,000 -13,000

Stavka Loses: 7,874,000
GHC Loses: 2,460,000

Hexes lost north of Tula: 4
Lines are basically static other than the south. Not sure why OOB is dropping,
not fighting its mud weird? Hopefully not some bug.

[chaos45]

Probably your formations filling back up losses...some of your divisions were getting very beat up from the CV numbers I was seeing.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: chaos45

Probably your formations filling back up losses...some of your divisions were getting very beat up from the CV numbers I was seeing.

Ohh but I have millions of men more then historical?

That was the big bitch for the ratio changes which look like they have trashed the game as 42 combat ratio is now same as 43 and they were 3 to 1 on average.

1.08 finally got the game to the place where games ended in early 45 now we back to 1.05 games ending in 44 because its not possible to have a 42 offensive.

I am fighting Brian May 42 and combat ratio is a joke.

Dumbing down the game always makes the game dumb, its 1.05 all over again.

WitE 2.0 will be far worse as the ratios are the same and game will be much slower, look at my WitW AAR's that get past invasions.

[chaos45]

Well the Germans army does have a million more than historical most games and a soviets a couple million more than historical lol.

You PM still full?

Are you fighting to dig him out of forts still? If so i think once you get him in the open your ratios should become better. Hard to know though as you have both been pretty tight with info on that game so far.

Was surprised my rifle corps routed on one of the attacks you did as I left space for them to fall back and they routed instead of walk back to freindly lines- even through a zoc would have been better than a rout I would think....you got a massive ratio on that one like 3:1 or so.

Anyway I returned the favor by pummeling those 4 poor infantry divisions I have been working over for weeks now. Think they are finally doomed. By the time they surrender will have them down to about 50% from losses anyway lol.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: chaos45

Well the Germans army does have a million more than historical most games and a soviets a couple million more than historical lol.

You PM still full?

Are you fighting to dig him out of forts still? If so i think once you get him in the open your ratios should become better. Hard to know though as you have both been pretty tight with info on that game so far.

Was surprised my rifle corps routed on one of the attacks you did as I left space for them to fall back and they routed instead of walk back to freindly lines- even through a zoc would have been better than a rout I would think....you got a massive ratio on that one like 3:1 or so.

Anyway I returned the favor by pummeling those 4 poor infantry divisions I have been working over for weeks now. Think they are finally doomed. By the time they surrender will have them down to about 50% from losses anyway lol.

With the light fighting my OOB is dropping 31 to 16 per turn so once summer
comes OOB will crash very quickly and you should win by 44 summer NP.

My OOB is crashing under very light fighing and your grows even during the five turns you only won 51% of the time.

Most Russian loses are from attrition not fighting so you can pound away as a disorganized blob and crash German OOB.

[Peltonx]

Turns Left: 110 Hexes to Berlin: 91 Mud turns: 30 Ratio: +11
Turn 100 GHC Armaments: 58,000 +36,000 Manpower: 52,000 +36,000 VP: 222

Armament Pts. Destroyed = 51
Heavy Industry Destroyed = 19
Factories: T-34 -60 Vehicles -25 SU2-12
Russian Units Destroyed after November 1st 1941
Corp: 7 ()
Divisions: 88 ()
Brigades: 44 ()
AP total: 1310

Stavka OOB: 8,075,000 +225,000
GHC OOB: 3,900,000 -80,000

Stavka Loses: 7,874,000 +336,000
GHC Loses: 2,621,000 +161,000
Combat Ratio Last 5 Turns: 2.1 to 1

Divisions Lost the Last Five Turns: 3
Hexes lost north of Tula: 5
Lines are holding so far and I have started pulling back in some areas trading space for time. Manpower and armaments are slowly climbing which is good to see. This should be mud season yet we have 3 areas with clear. I expect OOB to drop more as 6 divisions will be pulled off line and only 3 arrive until October. At least the rivers are unfrozen and makes holding the lines easier in allot of locations.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

Most Russian loses are from attrition not fighting so you can pound away as a disorganized blob and crash German OOB.

why do you persist with this claim? Your own evidence repudiates your claims, you are too intelligent to believe it, so its hard not to think you are trying to make some obscure argument and hope that by sheer repetition people will come to assume you are making a valid point?

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: loki100

ORIGINAL: Pelton

Most Russian loses are from attrition not fighting so you can pound away as a disorganized blob and crash German OOB.

why do you persist with this claim? Your own evidence repudiates your claims, you are too intelligent to believe it, so its hard not to think you are trying to make some obscure argument and hope that by sheer repetition people will come to assume you are making a valid point?

1. be more positive
2. where is the data?
3. you could be 100% right but I like to delay you for months, claim your crazy and you know the rest loki

[chaos45]

Basically data is- Soviets lose close to half their replacements in 1943 on to attrition average attrition losses since patch = 40-50k+ per week. Total replacements including returned disabled = 100k (85k manpower replacements, and approx. average of 15k returned disabled)

I have been tracking it the last 3 turns with screenshots and even from memory on previous turns in its seems pretty spot on.

So the Soviets have to lose a total of 50k+ troops per week in combat to lose any strength.

Now whats really interesting is the massive killed increase for the Soviets is only on Soviet attacks. So the nerf isnt as bad as it seems because if the Soviets defend or take attrition losses its still alot of disabled, seems it was mainly meant to nerf the Soviets from doing any type of attritional style attacks. Which IDK its a stupid change I dont think was needed from what Im seeing. I tested a bad attack again on T100 I lost almost 1,900 men to only inflict 200-300 Germans.

So if you consider a 7+:1 exchange rates to launch suicide attacks as the Soviets beneficial feel free...but it wasnt a valid tactic before Peltons complaints and still isnt.

The way the game is currently Balanced the Soviets can only at most afford about a 2:1 exchange rate in actual combat results. More than that and you are really net losing since you take 2-3x as many attrition losses as the Germans. For 1943 on....in 41/42 Soviets can afford high losses due to higher replacements...however they lose a ton due to encirclement's.

Which since Soviet replacements get even more reduced in 1944....you would have to go closer to a 1:1 exchange rate to stay good based on the games math right now, unless you enter 1944 with a surplus of manpower.

The designers/tinkerers have really closely balanced Soviet manpower...if you take a really bad trouncing as the Soviets against a strong German army it will be very hard to recover from here on out period. Effectively the game isnt really historical anymore. Its a fantasy game of what-if the Soviets didnt have total superiority in men and material by vast margins over the Germans and had to fight more like a western power with limited manpower resources, but still more than the Germans lol.

Also at this point probably half of my infantry corps need support units as I dont have near enough AP to build the 100+ SUs I need to fill them all and keep building more corps.

Its interesting I guess but why not just make up a fantasy game with WW2 equipment using the production/combat system on random maps and call it something else besides a historical WW2 wargame/simulation?

Just my 2 cents...to comment on the losses thing and "possible" soviet mass attacks winning the game. This may have been a valid soviet tactic in earlier editions but not anymore from what I see on the Soviet manpower/armaments side of things....we are up to May 1943...I have no armaments or manpower surplus at all, abitover 8M men in the field and have built no real units for most of 1943 just a handful of BDEs and additional tank army HQs.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: chaos45

Basically data is- Soviets lose close to half their replacements in 1943 on to attrition average attrition losses since patch = 40-50k+ per week. Total replacements including returned disabled = 100k (85k manpower replacements, and approx. average of 15k returned disabled)

I have been tracking it the last 3 turns with screenshots and even from memory on previous turns in its seems pretty spot on.

So the Soviets have to lose a total of 50k+ troops per week in combat to lose any strength.

Now whats really interesting is the massive killed increase for the Soviets is only on Soviet attacks. So the nerf isnt as bad as it seems because if the Soviets defend or take attrition losses its still alot of disabled, seems it was mainly meant to nerf the Soviets from doing any type of attritional style attacks. Which IDK its a stupid change I dont think was needed from what Im seeing. I tested a bad attack again on T100 I lost almost 1,900 men to only inflict 200-300 Germans.

So if you consider a 7+:1 exchange rates to launch suicide attacks as the Soviets beneficial feel free...but it wasnt a valid tactic before Peltons complaints and still isnt.

The way the game is currently Balanced the Soviets can only at most afford about a 2:1 exchange rate in actual combat results. More than that and you are really net losing since you take 2-3x as many attrition losses as the Germans. For 1943 on....in 41/42 Soviets can afford high losses due to higher replacements...however they lose a ton due to encirclement's.

Which since Soviet replacements get even more reduced in 1944....you would have to go closer to a 1:1 exchange rate to stay good based on the games math right now, unless you enter 1944 with a surplus of manpower.

The designers/tinkerers have really closely balanced Soviet manpower...if you take a really bad trouncing as the Soviets against a strong German army it will be very hard to recover from here on out period. Effectively the game isnt really historical anymore. Its a fantasy game of what-if the Soviets didnt have total superiority in men and material by vast margins over the Germans and had to fight more like a western power with limited manpower resources, but still more than the Germans lol.

Also at this point probably half of my infantry corps need support units as I dont have near enough AP to build the 100+ SUs I need to fill them all and keep building more corps.

Its interesting I guess but why not just make up a fantasy game with WW2 equipment using the production/combat system on random maps and call it something else besides a historical WW2 wargame/simulation?

Just my 2 cents...to comment on the losses thing and "possible" soviet mass attacks winning the game. This may have been a valid soviet tactic in earlier editions but not anymore from what I see on the Soviet manpower/armaments side of things....we are up to May 1943...I have no armaments or manpower surplus at all, abitover 8M men in the field and have built no real units for most of 1943 just a handful of BDEs and additional tank army HQs.

Data is the data not sure what game your playing.

Turn 90

Russian OOB 7,755,00

Turn 100

Russian OOB 8,075,000

Your up 330,000 men Chaos.

This is really really simple math

Your OOB is going up 33,000 men per turn.

Refute that data?

To do that from turn 100 to turn 110 if I am right your OOB will go up if your right it will go down.

VERY VERY SIMPLE MATH.

lets collect the data and every one else can see what the math says.

simple.

I been doing this for YEARS and the data is the data Russian OOB's ALWAYS AS IN ALWAYS INCREASE. We can look at data from 1.00000 to 1.08

When you have some data that shows Russian OOBs going down from June 43 to 45 let me know.

Not what if I think so I say so POST THE DATA.

German OOB is down -86,000
Russian OOB is up 335,000

You and loki need to simply look at the data.

I am more then willing to support your ideas IF your have data that supports them, not wish full thinking

[chaos45]

30k+ per week is about what I should be going up...plus I started with about 500k men in my pool when we patched.

Weekly loss average for the spring- 40-50k attrition and probably overall average of 20k combat KIA as some weeks was almost none and others 20-30k. So average weekly losses of high end 70-80k.....and I replace 100k per week.

Should be gaining an average of 20-30k+ men per week all spring some weeks alot more some alittle less...plus again I had a 500k manpower pool when we patched.....So a gain of 335k is actually abit low based on all the number crunching lol.

Also losses are low in the spring keep in mind...was my OOB going up during the winter???? not really...because I was losing like 40k+ men a week to combat because I could attack everywhere ever week and you were counterattacking as well.

So winter....50k attrition+ 40k combat = almost no gain with only 100k replacements.....Think this summer will be just as brutal and both are OOBs are going to start dropping once I can attack again all across the front.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: chaos45

30k+ per week is about what I should be going up...plus I started with about 500k men in my pool when we patched.

Weekly loss average for the spring- 40-50k attrition and probably overall average of 20k combat KIA as some weeks was almost none and others 20-30k. So average weekly losses of high end 70-80k.....and I replace 100k per week.

Should be gaining an average of 20-30k+ men per week all spring some weeks alot more some alittle less...plus again I had a 500k manpower pool when we patched.....So a gain of 335k is actually abit low based on all the number crunching lol.

Also losses are low in the spring keep in mind...was my OOB going up during the winter???? not really...because I was losing like 40k+ men a week to combat because I could attack everywhere ever week and you were counterattacking as well.

So winter....50k attrition+ 40k combat = almost no gain with only 100k replacements.....Think this summer will be just as brutal and both are OOBs are going to start dropping once I can attack again all across the front.

You got 2x as many men so even if your dropping and I am it simply is a non factor unless the drop is more then 2 to 1.

This one thing has NEVER EVER changed from release to date.

Russian OOB will climb, because the combat ratio simply is historically wrong for 1943.

This causes a snowball effect as can a poor logistics model.

Tweaking manpower and replacement numbers has been tried now for 3+ yrs (I have been around for all of them unlike most)and
simply will never and has never worked because it is not the issue.

I am puzzled why if something fails again and again people keep tring it?