Don to Danube AAR - Decision in the Ukraine - Soviet Side

[Speedysteve]

Losses:

[Speedysteve]

OOB:

[Speedysteve]

Turn 4:

The below screenshot shows the actions from week 4. Comrade P wiped out the surrounded Kanev units netting 25,000 men and 370 tanks. A follow up attack on 1st Rifle Corps, 3rd Guards Mech Corps and 3rd Guards Tk Corps fails costing 3,000 Axis men to 1,200 Soviet.

4th and 5th Guards Army forced the 106th Infantry Division back from the Dnepr but couldn't cross.

1st Mech Corps and 25th Guards Corps held their positions over the Dnepr and forced 8/9th Panzers divisions back in a stalling attack.

Around Poltava Rotmistrov's 5th Guards Tank Army has begun to arrive. I will use these elite forces to penetrate either of the bridgeheads established to the SW.

[Speedysteve]

Mud down south prevents any significant fuel and supply reaching the southern forces and hence prevents a lot of movement.

I would have aimed to have gotten these forces across the Dnepr before ComradeP could react with substantial forces as it stands I will see what the weather brings and what defences await me.

[Speedysteve]

Losses:

[Speedysteve]

OOB:

[Speedysteve]

Turn 5. Mud over the northern half of the map and little action in general. I'm showing the south here and my buildup for an attack over the Dnepr when the weather permits it. You'll also see 2 Corps that have recently arrived from the Caucasus Front as they're not needed down there.

[Speedysteve]

In the Crimea the Axis are running to Sevastapol and are slowly evac'ing from there (ComradeP mentioned enough sea transport exists for 1 division per week).

[Speedysteve]

Turn 6. Mud everywhere so no real action to talk of. Instead I'll discuss the progress over the past 6 weeks. Here's the northern half with the red arrows showing original attack routes and the blue lines showing the proposed attack routes when the rain stops. There's no doubt about it up here my attacks have not met with success. This was also partially due to ComradeP's use of his Elite Panzers to snub the Kanev Bridgehead.

The 'good' thing I have in this region at present is 2 bridgehead's across the Dnepr and a couple of other points where I can cross against weakly held positions. I can also hopefully keep the bulk of the Elite Panzers up here allowing for greater success elswhere.

[Speedysteve]

South: Here my initial attacks met with substantial success piercing the Molochna river line. Rain and the stalling actions by 17th Panzer halted further progress for a month. It will be interesting to see if this delay will be crucial later on and how quickly I can now over the Dnepr through the attack vectors highlighted in blue.

I expect to have little success in the Crimea as ComradeP can outrun my forces and keep them well defended in the good terrain around Sevastapol. I will not expend masses of effort down here.

[Speedysteve]

Week 7 was mud everywhere. Week 8 had Blizzard conditions up north and snow in the south.

ComradeP re-organised his lines moving forces away from the former Kanev Bridgehead to the Bridgehead to the SE including Das Reich and 23rd Panzer Division.

Soviet Forces are constantly arriving and strengthening behind the lines in this area awaiting for the Dnepr to freeze over. 2 spoilign attacks were launched this week (red arrows).

The red circles include penetration formations from 5th Guards Tk Army (3 x Tk Cps, 2 x Mch Cps), 1st Tank Army (2 x Tk Cps, 1 x Mch Cps), 3rd Guards Tank Army (1 x Tk Cps, 1 x Mch Cps).

I'm planning to expand the number of 'Threat Points' for ComradeP by attacking, and if possible, exploiting other areas of the Dnepr - these are identified by Blue Circles.

[Speedysteve]

ComradeP has weaker forces down south and only 2 identified Panzer Divisions in the area. Zhukov's 51st Army stormed across the Dnepr (red circle) smashing back 17th Infantry Division 20 miles to the rear. Further to the NE 3rd Guards Army forced back 111th Infatry Division from it's defences.

[Speedysteve]

The Crimea - ComradeP continues to withdraw but did launch a couple of successful local counter-attacks. In return Southern Cacvlary Bde was routed and we near the defences of Sevastapol.

[Speedysteve]

Losses upto end of week 8:

[Speedysteve]

OOB: Axis are up 65,000 men, down 200 artillery and up 800 tanks. My take on that is infantry and Panzer reinforcements have bumped up the men and tank totals but ComradeP has probably disbanded some artillery SU's.

I also meant ot mention about AP use. I only get 25 per turn and so far I've been mainly using these to re-assign un allocated armoured units to Armies and also to re-assign North Caucasus units to 2nd Ukranian Front. I've also formed up 3 Mech Bde's to form a Mech Cps. I'll soon start to use my AP's to create Tnk Cps from the various Tk Bde's I have as well as disbanding the odd Rgt and potentially creating more artillery.

So much I want to do so few AP's.............

[Speedysteve]

Turn 9. Snow across the Front preventing any major attacks across the un-frozen Dnepr (MP costs for most of my units are too high for deliberate attacks across the Dnepr). As such more re-organising up north and shuffling refitted units into the line and one's that need it out of the line. Pieter has organised his defence well. Bombardment attacks on a few units to keep the Axis honest:

[Speedysteve]

Pieter successfully counter attacked 51st Army's Bridgehead with 3 Panzer and 2 Infantry Divisions. Rifle Corps stormed back across the Dnepr in 2 places this week.

I can't wait for the Dnepr to freeze over then several attacks and breakthroughs can be achieved at once.

[Speedysteve]

Turn 10 - snow everywhere but the Dnepr is still not frozen enough for assaults in general. Still building up and refting in the north (formed another Rifle Cps and Tk Cps).

Down south Pieter did not attacked my massed Rifle Corps but instead pulled back. Zaporozhe was abandoned and re-taken and further units are across the Dnepr. Once (if) I'm across the Dnepr in force and the Axis are out of their defences the fun can begin [:)]

[Speedysteve]

Turn 11. Blizzard in the south, snow in the north. A lot more re-org from ComradeP shuffling his Elite forces from danger point to danger point. No attacks on either side though. I created another Tk Cps and a Rifle Cps from froces in the north. I expand my bridgehead in the south:

[Speedysteve]

One thing I haven't discussed in detail which has important implications for this scenario and indeed any major River Crossing are ice levels. Back in version 1.05.18 changes were made to the engine in the following way:

1) Rule Change – Ice levels no longer go up by 4 during a blizzard in all areas. The amount of increase is dependent on the weather zone as follows:

Europe Zone +1
South Soviet Zone +2
Central Soviet Zone +3
North Soviet Zone +4

2) Rule Change – Major rivers are not considered frozen until the ice level is at least 8 (used to be 5). At ice levels 5-7, the extra cost due to icing is 8 when moving into an EZOC, and 4 when not moving into an EZOC.

This second point has massive implications for River Crossings. Not only are they hard on Major Rivers against entrenched defenders but now in the mid ice ranges it's virtually impossible to cross rivers as Soviet units will often not have enough MP's to conduct deliberate attacks. As such it's much better to way until Ice Levels 8 are reached once it's fully frozen

Of course playing with Random weather adds another element into the equation so that in theory the Major Rivers may not freeze that long maing timing of any offensive key.