Do you want total war?-The AAR

[EwaldvonKleist]

T2 before Axis operations
No real negative suprises. Three regiments cut off in the South and a counterattack pushes one aside, but the remaining ZOC lock and the MPs expended in the attack mean that the Soviets can not escape by foot/rail and can not run far enough to meet the conditions for disbanding. The Soviets fight forward in the South. As the opening demands quite much from the Panzers on T1 and has many splitted up in the process as compared to other openings, I can understand the temptation to do so. And my opponent is a very aggressive player type.



T2 after Axis operations
I ponder several options in the South before committing to this one. First had a more ambitions operation in mind with the pockets extending further East, but after some planning it proved to be impossible.
I pocket the units from the T1 ZOC lock and a few extra units west of Zhitomir. In addition, the SS division runs South to cut rails/convert the hexagons so the Soviets can not run east in their T2. Isolating the units was not planned at first but when I saw the Soviet CV I decided to gamble on an across-the-river HA and it worked. In retroperspective I tried to optimise too much and should have invested more in T2 to seal the pockets for good, I had one Panzer division in the South with good MP not committed and moved it North instead and did not use all MPs of the 10-30 division west of Vitebsk (the MP are from the HQ, the unit had less but enough to form a better wall between the two pockets).

[EwaldvonKleist]

T3 before Axis operations
New T2 pockets in the North opened and even a T1 pocket reconnected. Especially the latter is annoying, less because it would delay the operation (I am not in a hurry to liquidate the pockets as explained in an earlier post), but because it is a result of avoidable T2 carelessness.
In the South, the Soviets open the pocket from the outside. I am surprised that a rifle division had the MP to make a ZOC to ZOC move from the outside South of the Cav division after closing in to the Germans. But so is war. The situation is a bit complicated, there are good options, but the best movement path is ZOC locked by strong Soviet stacks.



T3 after Axis operations
After much thinking, I attempt and ambitious offensive in the South. Some mot. inf. divisions have the MP to go around Pskov to form a pocket at the start of T1. Even if the operation only temporarily cuts off the Soviet units, it would trap them so they can be pocketed for good in T4. The operation has a very narrow safety margin, but on the other hand is a potential game winner if coupled with even a mediocre pocket in the South.


Unfortunately for me, the tank division proves to be very powerful with 9CV and the infantry divisions have 4-5 CV instead of the expected 2-3 commanded by Zhukov. I was surprised by this due to the heavy Soviet commitment in the South. Althoug the breakthrough succeeds without many hold battles, it requires to use the exploitation force for the breakthrough, and I can only form a weak ZOC lock for some divisons, likely to be broken during the Soviet T3. The only consolation is that an important North-Sout rail line is cut early, but that will not convince a high command which follows the Vernichtungsgedanke as opposed to positional warfare.
The breakthrough will likely alarm the STAVKA, so the possibility for a major T4 pocket as in the game before is lost. But

In the South, the first goal is to close the T2 pocket again, this time more tightly. After the primary operation is nearly finished, the there is a chance to use the remaining resources to close a major pocket further South.

The T2 retreat path cutting meant that the Soviet units had problems to secure their rear due to lack of MP and fortification construction limitations on pending hexagons. On the other hand, the T2 pocket opening and experience of a similar operation were a warning that the escaping Soviets could convert this in a chaotic situation and a major delay if the pocket wall is not of high quality. After several iterations (which often failed due to lacking 1MP somewhere) that was the solution.


The game ended after the turn as return rate was low and we were both burned out with WitE, but he said opening the Southern pockets was not possible and a resign would be likely if continuing the game, placing the Germans in a good position.

[MattFL]

Soviets unnecessarily flush another 20-30 divisions down the toilet playing right into the hands of the Germans..... I understand the temptation is great to break encirclements and build a line in existing forts, but on T2 the Germans have high movement and defending like this is just throwing good units after bad....The Soviets can open all pockets in the south except the Lvov one, but what difference does it make? They're all dead regardless and any unit that helps to open the pockets is itself dead as well. In the center/north, losing the units south of Pskov and especially the pocket on the Dvina is just unnecessary. German units are going to be in that area anyway, why give the Germans another 10 divisions to destroy... Run Russian, Run. Smolensk and the Dnepr are lost, retreat east. The south is in tatters, retreat east. Hold Pskov and the swamps and run everywhere else, far enough away to be out of striking distance for several turns.


I feel another T4 capitulation coming on....

*Note these are post T2 Comments*

[EwaldvonKleist]

Hi Matt,
the opponent had good success in prior games with an agressive fight forward strategy. As we already discussed, a strong one line defence can work if placed sufficiently far in the rear, even better than an in depth defence as it can stop entirely, not just delay. But in this case it seems it has been too far forward. Brawling can also work if the Axis player does not plan carefully. The strategy makes the game challenging for the Axis in the early turns as you need to plan careful and have to balance several options against each other, but the reward is high as well.
Regards and thanks for expressing your observations.
Please note that T3 has been added just before your comment.
EvK

[EwaldvonKleist]

That basically is all I had on my list to post for the Guide/AAR unless there are specific questions. Thank you all for reading and discussing the ideas.

[MattFL]

I agree 100% that the fight forward strategy can work very well for the Russians and I tend to favor it myself against average German players. It can cause fits. But against an expert German open, which I tend to judge as the super extended Lvov pocket and the zoc locking of Minsk along with Riga etc., you just don't have the strength for it and any forward defense is doomed. We've just seen it two games in a row against experienced soviets with losses so substantial that the games end before T4. How much more evidence is needed that the Russians have to run against this opening and just accept the fact that the t1 units are lost and not lost good units saving dead ones... In each game some 30 or so divisions are lost on T2 that could be put to much better use alive than trying to defend territory that the Germans can reach anyway.... It's not on German T1 that these games are being lost, it's on Russian T1 that they're being lost.

[MattFL]

Thanks for sharing the AAR's EvK. It's a great opening and follow up and there is much to be learned from these for both sides.

[EwaldvonKleist]

Had posted wrong T3 after Axis operations, it is fixed now.