Sympathy for the Devil: Loki100 vs Stef78 (Stef78 welcome)

[loki100]

T1: 22-25 June 1941

So new game. Started with 1.08.08, no +1, mild blizzard (my feeling is the trade off in terms of easier Gds creation compensates for this). Variable weather.

We decided to use the Bitter End set up. Mainly as it provides a set of metrics rather than for the inherent victory conditions. I still take the view that the game either ends early (if it becomes too one sided or its all about who holds Berlin in May 1945).



Common sense rules around airdrops, unit/airbase bombing/naval invasions. Neither of us is in the win at all costs approach.

I've managed my common error of taking on too much so I'll simply present this AAR as a report on the game. Its open to Stef78 as I'll be a few turns behind.

So here is the situation when I got the turn.



So Riga is taken, Germans are over the Dauga. Have reached the outskirts of Minsk and seem to have cut off most of the SW Front.

In the north, I set up a defence around Pskov while fresh units rail in to form up on the Luga.



The centre, pull back what I can (as far as I can). Used all my rail capacity to send some units north. Hopefully that line on the Berezina will slow the Germans allowing me to build up at Smolensk



In the south, I found the pocket to be easy to break (from the inside). Its not clear in the image but everything is back in communication so that means it'll be a problem for the Germans to T3. I was also able to evacuate all the support units attached to the various rifle corps.



I don't race to disband the FZ counters. While its good to save the artillery etc for later use, they slow German hex conversion and I find I have more urgent tasks with the limited admin pt allocation you have on T1.

Losses were:

Germans 9,000 men (6,300 kia), 66 tanks and 50 planes.

Soviets, 331,000 men (39,000 kia and 187,000 prisoners), 2, 360 tanks and 2,981 planes (2,500 on the ground).

[STEF78]

Nice to play against Loki100!

Back on the german side. I didn't play them for several monthes. Thus I discover the last changes due to 1.08.xx. One FBD less is annoying...

Neither of us is to give up after 17 or 25 turns so this game should last to the bitter end [:D]. And we won't use gamey tricks.

During the first turns, I will focuse on keeping my momentum on in order to:
1) destroy russian industry
2) create some pockets

[821Bobo]

Nice to see yet another of great AARs from Loki.

Subscribed [:)]

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: STEF78

Nice to play against Loki100!

Back on the german side. I didn't play them for several monthes. Thus I discover the last changes due to 1.08.xx. One FBD less is annoying...

Neither of us is to give up after 17 or 25 turns so this game should last to the bitter end [:D]. And we won't use gamey tricks.

During the first turns, I will focuse on keeping my momentum on in order to:
1) destroy russian industry
2) create some pockets

both of which you do very well, plus a remarkable performance in resupplying your advanced guards

ORIGINAL: 821Bobo

Nice to see yet another of great AARs from Loki.

Subscribed [:)]

hope it goes a decent distance, but the .08 rule changes have really changed the balance of 1941. I suspect we are going to see a bit of return to earlier patches where the Axis can overrun pretty much anything they want to. Frustrating [;)]

[loki100]

Turn 2: 26 June – 2 July 1941

This turn set a pattern that will be repeated. In effect, Stef78 is moving far faster each turn than I have seen for a long time [1]. The result is my Berezina defense is just swallowed up, Pskov almost encircled and he reaches Mogilev. In the south, despite me cutting off his spearheads and re-opening the pocket he reaches Vinnitsa.


(I've marked on where it seemed most likely he would go next)

In theory in the south, he could go for Dnepropetrovsk, the Dneipr crossings at Chernigov or Kiev. However, I thought I'd managed to stall him by creating chaos behind his lines. Even where I can't re-open the pocket I was able to move so as to limit his supply.



In the centre, I did something similar, re-opening the Minsk pocket and cutting off his spearheads. Again I hoped this would buy me time. The stars show where I think I have managed to limit any resupply.



In the north, concentrate on trying to build up on the Luga while creating some sort of defense to the south of Lake Ilmen.



Overall



I lost 247,000 men (18,000 kia and 204,000 prisoners), 2,100 tanks and 235 planes [2]. German losses were 19,000 men (4,200 kia), 80 tanks and 32 planes.

For contrast, the T2 losses vs vigabrand were 282,000 men, 3,600 tanks and 162 planes. German losses were 23,000 men, 90 tanks and 40 planes.

[1] I think this is partly the results of the most recent patch, but he is also prioritising moving east over protecting his flanks. As we'll see the odd thing is I keep on cutting off his spearheads but it seems to be making no difference.
[2] With the new air rules I am keeping the VVS more active than I usually do, so losses will be higher.

[timmyab]

ORIGINAL: loki100
hope it goes a decent distance, but the .08 rule changes have really changed the balance of 1941. I suspect we are going to see a bit of return to earlier patches where the Axis can overrun pretty much anything they want to. Frustrating [;)]

Hmmm interesting. I would have said that .08 is a much needed pro Soviet patch [&:] The 50 starting NM is a big plus and combined with reduced industry railing costs relieves the strain quite a bit. It's still a challenge to get the industry out, but that's as it should be.

[chaos45]

Axis supplies don't matter T1 and T2

They start with 200% basically so its not until T3 that reducing Axis supply lines matter.

Basically all the Soviet player can do T1/T2 is start to rebuild the army/use AP to prep what you want your army to look like and disband all the crap you don't want so you keep your manpower/arm pool good longer.

Move units in pockets or units that cant escape to make axis burn some MP to kill them, and flee fast to set up new delay lines/checkerboard spots.

For the early turns with a good Lvov opening the Soviets are desperate for troops and especially support squads to fill new units/army HQs for a long time.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: timmyab

ORIGINAL: loki100
hope it goes a decent distance, but the .08 rule changes have really changed the balance of 1941. I suspect we are going to see a bit of return to earlier patches where the Axis can overrun pretty much anything they want to. Frustrating [;)]

Hmmm interesting. I would have said that .08 is a much needed pro Soviet patch [&:] The 50 starting NM is a big plus and combined with reduced industry railing costs relieves the strain quite a bit. It's still a challenge to get the industry out, but that's as it should be.

I realise that is what is intended but I'm really not sure its what I am seeing. It'll be easier to set out what I mean in a few more turns but Axis MP and CV are both much higher than I have seen in some time (really since the early .07.xx set of patches). Stef78 has said he's only done 6 HQBUs (up to T7) and that the new rules for them are working much as expected. So I don't think its that. But the lower industry evac costs are no help if the Germans can move much faster.

If this was just Pelton taking on his usual collection of new players using his prior exploration of the patch then I wouldn't read anything into what is presented. But I think we are both competent and have been around this often enough not to make too many fundamental errors.

ORIGINAL: chaos45

Axis supplies don't matter T1 and T2

They start with 200% basically so its not until T3 that reducing Axis supply lines matter.

Basically all the Soviet player can do T1/T2 is start to rebuild the army/use AP to prep what you want your army to look like and disband all the crap you don't want so you keep your manpower/arm pool good longer.

Move units in pockets or units that cant escape to make axis burn some MP to kill them, and flee fast to set up new delay lines/checkerboard spots.

For the early turns with a good Lvov opening the Soviets are desperate for troops and especially support squads to fill new units/army HQs for a long time.

or maybe I am making fundamental errors ... [;)]

[gingerbread]

Thanks for addressing balance and balance change issues in this AAR.

I'm more than a bit surprised that the Panzers have more fuel in .08 than before due to the -75k vehicles in the Axis At Start Pool. This should or at least was supposed to have a reign in effect but it could be that it does not kick in until the distance to rail increases. Doing HQBU's should add to the effect as well since vehicles are lost when doing that.

Are the Panzers reaching industrial locations earlier than before as well?

[STEF78]

Some infos from the german side:

I did 6 HQBU from turn 3 to 6 (I don't give the info about turn 7 as it's currently loki to play turn 7).

4 were done in the center, 2 in the South and none in the north. I didn't made a lot of fuel airdrop as my bombers were overused to break the russian line of defence.

In the South my moves went close from the romanian border thus increasing the supply level. In addition, I railed a 1 pzd and 2 mot north of Kishinev.

So all my Pzd/Mot weren't at 50MP each turn but I had at least a couple of them at full speed available both in center and in the South.

Defence is very difficult for the russian during the early turns and, with some recons the german player can find path through lightly or undefended areas. It happened in the south with my raid (I think turn 4) to Krivoi Rog via Nikolaïev (2 units were involved). The same for my raid to Briansk. Only one unit with full MP was involved.

On the other side, the new range for HQBU is annoying for the germans.

It's just my feeling about 1.08.08 but it doesn't seem to me easier for the germans than 1.07

[HardLuckYetAgain]

Chaos45 is 100% correct. Trying to slow/stop the first couple of turns of the initial German advance is a pipe dream with axis units full of supply. The Germans are held by a chain to supply but not on the first few turns. In the North the Germans can be pretty much in supply non stop, but in the south there is a tether that the Germans are tied to. Learn that tether and you can plan your moves accordingly. This tether is made longer by just railing one or two FBD's through Romania. You want to stop the Germans from great gains in the south either make a house rule that NO FBD's can go to/through Romania or make it so the FBD's can't ever go through Romania as if they are Hungarian (hard programmed). IMHO removal of FBD-5 has been minimal, limit all FBD's through Romania will have the desired effect.

ORIGINAL: chaos45

Axis supplies don't matter T1 and T2

They start with 200% basically so its not until T3 that reducing Axis supply lines matter.

Basically all the Soviet player can do T1/T2 is start to rebuild the army/use AP to prep what you want your army to look like and disband all the crap you don't want so you keep your manpower/arm pool good longer.

Move units in pockets or units that cant escape to make axis burn some MP to kill them, and flee fast to set up new delay lines/checkerboard spots.

For the early turns with a good Lvov opening the Soviets are desperate for troops and especially support squads to fill new units/army HQs for a long time.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: STEF78

Some infos from the german side:

I did 6 HQBU from turn 3 to 6 (I don't give the info about turn 7 as it's currently loki to play turn 7).

4 were done in the center, 2 in the South and none in the north. I didn't made a lot of fuel airdrop as my bombers were overused to break the russian line of defence.

In the South my moves went close from the romanian border thus increasing the supply level. In addition, I railed a 1 pzd and 2 mot north of Kishinev.

So all my Pzd/Mot weren't at 50MP each turn but I had at least a couple of them at full speed available both in center and in the South.

Defence is very difficult for the russian during the early turns and, with some recons the german player can find path through lightly or undefended areas. It happened in the south with my raid (I think turn 4) to Krivoi Rog via Nikolaïev (2 units were involved). The same for my raid to Briansk. Only one unit with full MP was involved.

On the other side, the new range for HQBU is annoying for the germans.

It's just my feeling about 1.08.08 but it doesn't seem to me easier for the germans than 1.07

Just a note on how I do HQBU's between turns 3 and 6 and the effects of patch from what I see have done them the same for yrs basicly and its in a thread or was.

I do 1 HQBU up north turn 4 or 5 to test the right hook, if it does not work I don't do any more for rest of game. If it does work I will do another the following turn and that's it until I drive on Moscow turn 12+
Also the right hook never works as far as forming a pocket after 1.06 as it is simply not possible to logisticly close the pocket. It simply stretches the front and releases panzers sooner to center.

The center I never do any before turn 8-9.

The south I will do one turn 3 another turn 4 and another turn 5 and finally turn 6 if needed. At that point I am past 20 MP's and wait for a long while before doing more, but I will air drop to Corps HQ's 200-300 per turn just so MP's stay above 20.


1. drops from planes was nerfed, which was a HUGE part of reason for run away games
2. distance was shortened to railhead and amount of supplies/fuel % dropped also.
3. less trucks also so during late summer I am at 178/178 trucks

So the logistics chain is shorter for sure.

What I see is different now.

I am seeing a stronger German Army as the system is finally working.
Manpower in pool stays at 8k-12k every turn and AP very slowly grow 2k-5k per turn.
So replacements are WAD - you can keep all infantry refit OFF they will still get some men ToE% stays static if not fighting and drops slowly if fighting. You can pull a unit off line and refit and the unit quickly fills up unlike the past.

SO you can keep all or some of your Panzer/MoT divisions on refit and they get priority and stay close to 85-100% all the time IF your not over using them.
This will make it seem like PD's are stronger then before, they are not but stay stronger allot longer.

Possible negative to things WAD is some replacements must be going to Russian units with refit OFF so it be harder to
build up the formations you want getting 100% of the replacements.

Add the bombing which looks like it here to stay but at lower then 3x per hex and again panzer have more punch.
The bombing can be countered as per Chaose's advice, you simply need to add AA units and fight forward more with planes. The tempo cant be kept up over time.

The problem in early 41 is Russian units are not in forts, don't have AA spread like they need and the air force is very weak.

As with all things WitE its never one thing, but a combo.

The logistics chain is shorter, but now most stacks (fort lvl 1 or less) can be pushed using a HA with 1 or 2 PD's or infantry for that matter Oka south and in many cases Oka north.

So units are not using 6 or 16 MP's to do combat and loses are less.

It seems like German units have more MP's. The fact is they have less, but can do more with less now in atleast early 41 and late if the German player keeps Russian off balance.

The bombing simply is not effective vs forts so for most of 42 and 43 it has no real effect, but 44 it will help allot once RED AF rules skies and Germans are driven into open - historical as Chaos says.

[chaos45]

Also AA works--even in my last turn vs Pelton he concentrated around 500 AA guns in 1 corps or army HQ----and it worked it shot down/damages a ton of soviet planes and reduced the bombing effectiveness against those units massively. Against pelton with old air rules I did the same at leningrad--remember my early posts on the massive losses to german airstrikes it was because I had concentrated fighter cover and a ton of AA covering that area.--PVO AA BDE and 10 regiments of PVO AA in the HQ that AA BDE was attached to. Now the issue as usual is you can only do this kind of thing in key areas....so command decisions [;)]

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: chaos45

Also AA works--even in my last turn vs Pelton he concentrated around 500 AA guns in 1 corps or army HQ----and it worked it shot down/damages a ton of soviet planes and reduced the bombing effectiveness against those units massively. Against pelton with old air rules I did the same at leningrad--remember my early posts on the massive losses to german airstrikes it was because I had concentrated fighter cover and a ton of AA covering that area.--PVO AA BDE and 10 regiments of PVO AA in the HQ that AA BDE was attached to. Now the issue as usual is you can only do this kind of thing in key areas....so command decisions [;)]

The AA works better for Germany you have 2-4 in the Corps HQ's and one in each division.

I had deleted all 90% of my Corps HQ's for manpower and had AA regiments in each Army HQ and 10 AA units. Why the massive AA the last few turns

[56ajax]

In the south, I found the pocket to be easy to break (from the inside). Its not clear in the image but everything is back in communication so that means it'll be a problem for the Germans to T3. I was also able to evacuate all the support units attached to the various rifle corps.

Hi, I have a question for you about evacuating support units as above. Why (bother)? Just set support level to zero or for those surrounded don't they helicopter out of the pocket with the HQ when the HQ is bumped? (Or is that just an AI rule).
Thanks.

[loki100]

I'll not pick up on the various useful and welcome balance contributions. What I'll try to do as I update is present as much info as I can. That'll help sort out the balance between Stef78's brilliance, my mistakes and balance issues in .08.

ORIGINAL: johntoml56

In the south, I found the pocket to be easy to break (from the inside). Its not clear in the image but everything is back in communication so that means it'll be a problem for the Germans to T3. I was also able to evacuate all the support units attached to the various rifle corps.

Hi, I have a question for you about evacuating support units as above. Why (bother)? Just set support level to zero or for those surrounded don't they helicopter out of the pocket with the HQ when the HQ is bumped? (Or is that just an AI rule).
Thanks.

Because if the HQ is bumped out you take losses. Later in the game the loss of a few 122mm/152mm guns is not important, at this stage rebuilding those SUs (assuming they are not totally destroyed) draws off arms pts that you have far better uses for. As in the wider discussion above, a lot of this is about looking for small advantages that add up. Done my way I get a number of functioning artillery SUs into Stavka, I can then recycle them to where I need them (Moscow/Leningrad).

I'd probably have to pay the admin cost in any case. Those powerful at start rifle corps in the Ukraine will end up placing their SUs in SW Front when they disband. At this stage of the war SW Front doesn't really matter what will save the Ukraine is a lack of German MPs not Soviet combat power.

[loki100]

Turn 3: 3-9 July 1941

I'll start splitting up the opening maps as inevitably the front starts to fragment.

No real surprise at an early lunge for Leningrad



I'm assuming from this there will no 'right hook', I also hope there is going to be a shortage of supply and MP.

In the centre, a brief slowing of the lunge for the Urals.



In the south, Stef78 is clearly aiming for Dnepropetrovsk. He could swing back to Cherkassy, but then there is no need for him to have stretched (I hope) his supply lines.



In response, I managed a spectacularly inept raid on Ploesti.



At Leningrad, I filled in the Luga positions and created a secondary line screening Leningrad.

In the centre, I decided I wasn't going to abandon the Dneipr line without a fight. I need time to construct the Moscow defensive lines.



In the south, I pulled back most of SW Front to the river. I deployed S Front plus most of the rifle corps that report to SW Front to create a barrier to the Dneipr bend. More importantly (I thought) I made a mess of the pockets and his supply lines. All his advanced units are cut off – which I was hoping would buy me time.



Destroyed units after the opening battles;



Losses for the axis were 14,000 men (4,500 kia), 61 tanks and 28 planes. Soviet losses were 48,000 men (15,000 kia, 16,000 prisoners), 2,100 tanks and 220 planes. My losses are relatively low as so far I've been able to re-open most of the pockets. Also I think that Stef78 is more interesting in speed of movement eastwards than in catching the Red Army (this will carry on for the next few turns).

Industrial data



Main thing there is I am trying to stock up supplies by reducing air production. While I am being more active with the VVS in this game than normal, I still think I can make savings by not producing 1941 models at full capacity. My goal in the air is attrition, not to win so even the 1-series monoplanes have some value.

[sillyflower]

ORIGINAL: loki100


My losses are relatively low as so far I've been able to re-open most of the pockets. Also I think that Stef78 is more interesting in speed of movement eastwards than in catching the Red Army (this will carry on for the next few turns).

Not a strategy that I would recommend for any german player. A gift to the Russians

[chaos45]

Ouch ya you opening up all those pockets in the south on T3 and cutting his supply is a huge set back for early game Germans.

[Peltonx]

Horrible just plain bad.

As Germany the first 4 turns are key you have to have your flanks covered.

The old days of the finger thrusts are OVER.

Why?

Because fuel drops have been nerfed.

My standard opening from 1 yr after release to-date works vs checker boards,
cav thrust ect as the flanks are covered and you can roll right to D-Town,
if he fights forward you pocket his army.

Sure some can thrust to east more, but their flanks are not covered and vs a good Russian player or someone whos seen your "move" your toast.

I have done same thing for yrs now and 1-7 there is no counter never will be, its safe and no matter what is
done to logistics/morale/weather it will work.

Turn 7 you change tactics depending on what Stavka gives you as long as there is not some swapping bug you be fine.

I guess a players tactics is based on what works vs who they have won vs, they should be based on who you lost.

You learn more from humble pie then pridefull pie.

Great job Loki