ORIGINAL: Dinglir
If you can make the fall of Moscow in 1941 a certainty (and I have no reason to doubt your word), wouldn't that make the Bitter End victory conditions a sure win for the Germans?
Do you view my thinking below as flawed or correct?
If the Germans take either Leningrad or Moscow in 1941, that is equivalent to 40 or 50 VP pr turn as long as they hold the city. For the Soviets to catch up to that, I think they need to destroy about one extra German infantry division for each turn the Germans hold either city. And they need to do this for no losses of their own.
I realize you play with normal blizzard rules over mild blizzard as I did against Pelton. In that game however, it proved well beyond my skill set to take back Moscow in the winter of 1941/42 after it had fallen. I basically had nine turns to do it, and that was just not possible against a determined German defense. Not being able to retake the city in the first winter, means the Germans are likely to hold on to it for at least another year (meaning the Soviets need to kill off an extra 50-60 Infantry divisions to catch up).
If your strategy makes the fall of Moscow a certainty, the mild blizzard bitter end scenario is a sure win for Germany. The normal blizzard, bitter end rests entirely on the ability of the Soviets to retake the city (and hold it through 1942), in order for them to have a fighting chance of winning.
Please do comment.
Oh, by all means there is "
NO" certainty in taking Moscow. Nor a sure win. There are just "too" many variables. Now, there are things that the Germans can do to enhance their chances(i.e. maximize logistics, taking the box(will get to this shortly in later posts), maximize surrounded killed units(soviets have a lack of units in the early game and the Germans should stretch the Soviet line as far as possible. Make the Soviets choose or die trying). Having said that my goal has always been both Moscow(1st target) and Leningrad (2nd target) indirectly(so far I have been able to take both Moscow and Leningrad in the games that people didnt resign or have other issues). The straight on push to Leningrad, in my opinion, plays into the Soviet hand. I love keeping the fight in the open where the Soviets have fewer units at the beginning of the game and the Germans have better mobility. The south in my opinion has supply lines that are WAY too long to maximize potential of the German Army. Plus taking the Industry in the south is more of a Pipe dream against a good Russian player. Thus I play up North where my Supply situation is much better. As I quoted earlier, "Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics."
- Gen. Robert H. Barrow, USMC" hold very true here.
Germans should play where their potential is maximized 
Also, as you will see. I take all the Mountain units, except for the 99th Mountain unit north. Why, because with those units I make a Corps of German Mountain divisions for the Winter. I also put those units with a "great" leader. I'm sure you realize that where ever that Corps is is not going to be an easy win for the Soviets during the winter.
In closing, yes Dinglir if Moscow & Leningrad are taken by the German the game is pretty much done. You may have a chance if you get the all the industry out. But my strat has always been to have mass surroundings of Soviet units and grabbing of all the large Population centers.
